Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte has had no problems bashing the United States. The 72-year-old leader called former President Barack Obama a “son of a whore” for criticizing his brutal crackdown on drug addicts. He described the previous US ambassador to the Philippines, Philip Goldberg, as “a gay son of a bitch.” And he’s also been explicit about ejecting US troops from his country.
“The special forces, they have to go,” Duterte said in September last year, just months after he assumed office. He made the same point again last October, telling reporters he wanted US troops out of the Philippines within the next two years.
These are bold demands, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that Duterte has no intention of actually trying to enforce them. Instead, his government has asked US special operations forces to help end a siege by the Abu Sayyaf Group, ISIS’s allied group in the southern Filipino island of Mindanao, that has already claimed more than 300 lives in the city of Marawi.
For most leaders, being caught faltering on a promise would be politically damaging, or at the very least embarrassing. But not for Duterte, who has a reputation for braggadocio. Perhaps that’s why he gets along so well with President Donald Trump, who has invited Duterte to the White House and even praised him for a brutal crackdown on drug dealers that has killed more than 8,000 people.
Duterte himself has said that he can’t be trusted for what he says. “In every five statements I make, only two are true while three are just jokes,” he said at a Bureau of Customs celebration in Manila last year.
No one is surprised that Duterte isn’t following through on his threat
Duterte has said multiple times that he didn’t request the team of US special forces helping in Mindanao in early June. But Vicente Rafael, an expert of US-Filipino relations from the University of Washington, said that is virtually impossible.
“He’s saying that to give him an out,” Rafael said in an interview. “It would make him seem less hypocritical, but it’s almost certain that he knew. His military generals would have told him.”
On the off chance they didn’t, having US troops provide support in Mindanao after Duterte said they should go would normally be politically damaging. But because it’s Duterte, it’s not.
“For his critics, this isn’t something new. It’s just part of what Duterte does: exaggerating, sometimes outright lying,” Rafael noted. “And among his supporters, it doesn’t matter. It’s immaterial.”
In other words, even though the leader of the Philippines promised one thing and it didn’t happen, neither his supporters nor his detractors are fazed.
Duterte rose to power last year on a wave of populist support, beating his rival Mar Roxas by more than 15 percentage points. Since then, he has cracked down on police corruption, publicly incited vigilante violence, and, most significantly, launched a bloody anti-drug war that has claimed the lives of 8,000 and counting. While the international community has largely condemned Duterte for his human rights abuses, polls show that the majority of the country is still behind him.
That’s because most Filipinos like Duterte exactly the way he is, even if it causes consternation abroad. “The things that bring Duterte the most criticism abroad — an autocratic style that shows little respect for political norms, and an unapologetically violent approach to his country’s drug problem — are exactly the things that make him most popular at home,” Ana Santos wrote for Vox.
Duterte’s ruling style may be popular, but it has also shown to be very difficult to work with. That’s why world leaders and even the people under him have learned to take his comments with more than a pinch of salt.
For example, in October last year, Duterte called for the end of the two-year-old Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the Philippines and the US (and also casually told Obama to “go to hell”). Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, though, said he hadn’t received any official directive to void the pact.
"I think [the US-Philippines relationship] is just going through these bumps on the road," Lorenzana said at a news conference last October. "Relationships sometimes go to this stage, but over time it will be patched up."
In the face of so much uncertainty, Duterte’s own armed forces have developed a new standard operating procedure for dealing with him, said Mark Thompson, an expert on Philippine politics from the City University of Hong Kong. In a nutshell, they won’t act on Duterte’s demands unless they get a written order.
Duterte hasn’t tried to change the US-Philippine military relationship
Despite what Duterte has been saying, he has yet to take any concrete steps to alter the military alliance with Washington, which has been in place since 1947. And it’s a strong relationship.
For example, as the Philippines’s only treaty ally, the US has legal mechanisms such as the EDCA to provide direct military assistance to the country, reported the Asia Times. (Other major powers such as Russia and China don’t have comparable agreements with Manila.)
Even though he isn’t a fan of the US, Duterte seems to understand that US troops are extremely helpful to the Philippines, especially in the battle against Abu Sayyaf. Since 2002, the US has provided training, equipment and intelligence to Filipino troops, which for the most part, has helped to keep the Islamic extremists under control.
In fact, by 2014, Abu Sayyaf had largely been contained. So when the organization regrouped under the ISIS flag and began fighting back against military forces, it was no surprise the Philippines reached out to the US again.
It was also no surprise that Washington said yes.
“The risk of sending [US troops] is some of them might get killed,” Stephen Biddle, an expert on counterterrorism, said in an interview. “But if you don’t act, and then Philippines-based terrorists blow up car bombs in Times Square — that’s a risk, too.”
Biddle added that sending a small force of elite special operations forces is a low-cost, low-risk option. The prospect is made less risky when considering US special forces only provide technical and logistical support, which further reduces their exposure to danger.
It is also just good practice for the US to maintain a positive relationship even if the vitriolic rhetoric might harm relations in the short term, retired Marine Lt. Gen. Chip Gregson, a former top Pentagon official focusing on Asia, said in an interview.
Top officials in the Duterte administration are well aware that having friendly ties with the US is beneficial to Manila. For months now, government officials have discouraged Duterte from acting out against the US, Thompson said, adding that the president has been somewhat receptive to this advice. Thompson also explained that it helps that Duterte has a much friendlier relationship with President Donald Trump than he did with Obama.
And what a relationship it is. During an April 29 call, Trump invited Duterte to the White House. The Intercept got a transcript of their call, and the two leaders clearly established a rapport. Trump, singing a markedly different tune from his predecessor, praised the way Duterte was handling his war on drugs: “I just wanted to congratulate you because I am hearing of the unbelievable job on the drug problem,” he told Duterte on the call.
Compliments like these mean a lot to the Filipino leader.
“President Duterte has very thin skin when it comes to criticisms of his administration, especially when it comes from Western countries,” Thompson explained. Duterte reacted badly to Obama raising his concerns over his record on human rights. But these feelings have been tempered now that Trump, who has shown his appreciation for Duterte, is in office.
Walking back his anti-US threat isn’t going to hurt Duterte at all
The latest polls from April show that 76 percent of Filipinos trust Duterte and 78 percent approve of his performance. These numbers aren’t likely to drop because the president failed to follow through on a promise. In fact, he is likely to remain popular no matter what lies he tells.
“He could tell [his supporters] he was the spawn of the devil and it wouldn’t matter,” Rafael said. “They’re enthralled by his power, so it just doesn’t matter.”
It would take a genuinely massive lie for Duterte to lose support from his base. This one isn’t going to do it.