Vox - Florida, Arizona, Oklahoma primary elections: live results, news, and analysishttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52517/voxv.png2020-03-17T10:50:00-04:00http://www.vox.com/rss/stream/175522452020-03-17T10:50:00-04:002020-03-17T10:50:00-04:00The Latino vote won’t rescue Bernie Sanders in Florida
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<figcaption>Sen. Bernie Sanders addresses a heavily-Latino crowd during a campaign rally in East Los Angeles, California on May 23, 2016. | David McNew/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Sanders has relied on Latinos for key wins in early-voting states. But they won’t help him in Florida. </p> <p id="zL7xH8">Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has been courting the Latino vote for months — a strategy that played in his favor in earlier primaries and caucuses but will likely fall flat in Florida, where the primary is proceeding despite <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/1/31/21113178/what-is-coronavirus-symptoms-travel-china-map">coronavirus</a> concerns on Tuesday. </p>
<p id="aTcpZB">After claiming victory in 16 states so far, former Vice President Joe Biden has narrowed Sanders’s lead among Latino voters in Arizona, which also votes on Tuesday, to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/poll-biden-sanders-arizona-130517">7 percent</a> in a recent Monmouth University poll. But in Florida, where Biden is leading among Latinos, Sanders’s disadvantages go beyond his rival’s recent momentum. </p>
<p id="kRv79R">Sanders has been<strong> </strong>trying to appeal to Latino voters with a progressive policy platform on immigration, health care, and jobs. Starting last summer, he has poured resources in spreading his message, in both Spanish and English, to Latino communities. And he’s hired Latino staff from the grassroots advocacy community and integrated them into every facet of his campaign.</p>
<p id="ijdbPo">That strategy helped him sweep the Latino vote in Texas, California, and Nevada by double-digit margins, and recent polls show he’s also the favorite to win among Latinos in Arizona. But Florida, a swing state where Latinos make up <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/01/31/where-latinos-have-the-most-eligible-voters-in-the-2020-election/">20 percent </a>electorate, is different. </p>
<p id="U8yNtD">Unlike the other states, where Mexican Americans make up the majority of Latinos, Florida’s Latino population is diverse in terms of national origin, with the biggest communities being Cuban and Puerto Rican. Most don’t even like to call themselves “Latino,” a term that was coined to coalesce political power around a common ethnic identity — they prefer the term “<a href="https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1237043322776100866?s=20">Hispanic</a>.”</p>
<p id="UAwgA1">While the vast majority of Florida Latinos identify as Democrats, they have proved malleable in past elections. They backed Barack <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/">Obama</a> in 2008 and 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016, but they also supported a number of Republicans: George W. Bush <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/issue/660/100/which-latinos-elected-bush-2004">in 2004</a>, Jeb Bush for governor in 2002, and <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/12/04/democrats-hispanic-voters-2020-222751">Rick Scott</a> for Senate and <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/12/04/democrats-hispanic-voters-2020-222751">Ron DeSantis</a> for governor in 2018. </p>
<p id="SQ68xd">Even President Donald Trump, despite pursuing immigration policies that disproportionately harm Latinos, has been attempting to capitalize on the conservative leanings of Florida Latinos, launching a “Latinos for Trump” campaign in the state. He won Florida by a razor-thin margin in 2016 with the support of Cuban voters, and even modest gains in Latino support in the state could help ensure his victory there.</p>
<p id="YDD21S">Sanders, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, is not an obvious choice for Florida Latinos, and it shows in the polls: Likely Latino primary voters prefer Biden by an 8-point margin, according to a recent <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/487798-biden-leads-sanders-among-florida-hispanics">Univision poll</a>. And a recent Telemundo poll shows Sanders in a tie with Trump among Latinos in a direct matchup in a general election. (Biden, by comparison, could win in a landslide with Latino voters there, with 58 percent support among Latino voters compared to 38 percent who would back Trump.)</p>
<p id="FC4qy6">Whereas Latinos were Sanders’s strength in other states, they could be his downfall in Florida.</p>
<h3 id="R5sdAT">Sanders needs Puerto Rican support</h3>
<p id="TH26bt">If Sanders is going to have a chance in Florida, he needs the support of the left-leaning Puerto Rican community. </p>
<p id="4Y8KCx">The Latino community in Florida was largely Cuban until the mid-2000s, when there was an influx of almost 400,000 Puerto Ricans who settled primarily in Central Florida — now one of the largest Puerto Rican communities in the world. That migration fundamentally changed the political dynamics in the state. Whereas Kerry and Bush tied in 2004 in Orange County, where Orlando is located, Obama won that county by 80,000 votes four years later.</p>
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<figcaption>Cristal Marie, a native of San Juan, Puerto Rico, holds a Puerto Rican flag before a campaign rally for Sen. Bernie Sanders in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on March 8, 2020.</figcaption>
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<p id="NAI5fy">“That was entirely a function of Puerto Rican growth,” said Steven Schale, a Florida political strategist who previously oversaw Obama’s campaign in the state. </p>
<p id="0HiZjU">Puerto Ricans tend to align with most Latino voters in terms of the issues they prioritize with healthcare and jobs being top of mind. They’re particularly supportive of Sanders’s Medicare-for-all proposal. </p>
<p id="22Se3S">But they’re also <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/09/27/maria-generation-catastrophic-storm-gave-birth-young-climate-movement-puerto-rico/">concerned</a> about climate change. That might be because they’re still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, which killed almost 3,000 people in 2017, and have been impacted by climate change <a href="https://remezcla.com/culture/report-puerto-rico-most-affected-climate-change/">more than anywhere else</a> worldwide, according to a recent report by the think tank Germanwatch. </p>
<p id="BEQLAv">Another chief concern for many mainland Puerto Ricans is pushing for their island home, a US territory, to become the 51st state. Puerto Rico held referendums in 2012 and 2017 in which the population overwhelmingly backed statehood, but neither of them have triggered an official request to Congress. That might come<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/479245-puerto-rico-senate-chief-proposes-statehood-vote-in-2020"> later this year</a>.</p>
<p id="DBObum">But since they’re US citizens, Sanders’s immigration policies might not resonate with them in the same way they do with other Latino groups who might be recent immigrants or have family members who are. </p>
<p id="h0lWCu">“There wasn’t as much acute self-interest in immigration as you might get in, say, Nevada,” Schale said. </p>
<p id="I00NPg">It’s been challenging to get Puerto Ricans to turn out. Part of that might be because Puerto Ricans living on the island don’t vote as often as they do on the mainland. After the major influx of Puerto Ricans to Florida in the 2000s, there were initially massive turnout differences between presidential and non-presidential election years, Schale said. But in the 2018 midterm elections, voter participation among Puerto Ricans <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/09/how-latinos-voted-in-2018-midterms/">surged</a>, suggesting that outreach has made a difference. </p>
<p id="jtDPfZ">Sanders has invested in outreach to Latinos more than any other candidate, so that could help him drive Puerto Ricans to turn out. </p>
<h3 id="qjVL08">Cuban conservatives stand in Sanders’s way</h3>
<p id="RCBjx3">Sanders’s biggest obstacle may be Cubans, who have historically voted Republican and are often framed as political outliers among Latino voters. </p>
<p id="gaFQiW">Cubans appear to be more wary than other Latinos of Sanders, who recently <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/us/bernie-sanders-fidel-castro-florida.html">defended</a> some parts of former Cuban dictator Fidel Castro’s record. According to a recent <a href="https://www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/sanders-consolidates-among-hispanic-democrats-as-bloomberg-joins-the-battle-univision-poll">Univision poll</a>, Sanders fares worse among Cubans than among other Latinos — his favorability rating among Cubans is 47 percent favorable to 42 percent unfavorable. By comparison, 67 percent of Mexicans rated Sanders favorably.</p>
<p id="1rIwNq">And according to the Telemundo poll, Sanders is performing particularly badly in southeastern Florida, where there is a large Cuban community. Only 19 percent of Cubans — compared to 65 percent of Puerto Ricans — would vote for him in a contest against Trump.</p>
<p id="SW6LGW">Sanders’s democratic socialism might alienate those Cubans who fled their socialist homeland, where human rights violations such as executions of dissidents and suppression of free speech were rampant. Up until 2016, there was a growing contingent of Democratic Cuban voters, but that trend <a href="https://harvardpolitics.com/united-states/the-cuban-paradox/">appeared to reverse</a> in 2016 and 2018, perhaps due to Democrats’ efforts to thaw relations with Cuba under the Obama administration. </p>
<p id="eY7Yvv">That same phenomenon might apply to South Americans who hail from other socialist countries, including Nicaraguans, Colombians, and Venezuelans who have recently fled the regime of Nicolás Maduro. Sanders was <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-and-venezuela-11553109182">criticized</a> for not immediately denouncing Maduro as a dictator and has been repeatedly <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPh6yDfNcTk">asked</a> to distinguish his brand of democratic socialism from the kind that led to Venezuela’s decline. It follows, then, that 70 percent of Latino voters in the state said they wouldn’t vote for a candidate who described himself as a socialist, according to the Telemundo poll. </p>
<p id="MQLu3c">“Democrats have to be careful in Florida,” Schale said. “If you just came here or you have family who just came here from Venezuela, democratic socialism is going to mean something very different in Miami than it will in Brooklyn.” </p>
<p id="MedVxV">Cubans’ policy preferences also differ from those of other Latinos. Cubans were automatically granted green cards after they arrived on US soil, so they don’t have a personal stake Sanders’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/7/20951821/bernie-sanders-immigration-plan-worker-rights-legalization-labor">immigration platform</a>, which would legalize the 11 million unauthorized immigrants in the US, among other proposals. </p>
<p id="IbpSDv">A recent Univision poll found that Cubans prioritize lowering health care costs — but many of them don’t think Sanders’s Medicare-for-all proposal is the way to do so. While most Latinos overwhelmingly back Medicare-for-all, more than a third of Cubans oppose it. They also express less interest in creating jobs, stopping racism, improving public education, and addressing climate change than Latinos overall. </p>
<p id="SdxlC5">Florida’s Cubans were about <a href="http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/florida/president">twice as likely</a> to vote for Trump in 2016 compared to non-Cuban Latinos. Cubans, along with the growing community of Venezuelans in Florida, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/02/trump-venezuela-2020-protections-1479229">have favored</a> Trump’s strong denunciation of Maduro’s regime in Venezuela and his efforts to reverse Obama’s policies on Cuba. </p>
<p id="OtNboy">“Trump is going to aggressively go into Hispanic communities, particularly Cuban communities, and make the ‘America versus socialism’ argument,” Schale said. “It’s something we can’t ignore. If we don’t respond, it could have an impact on the race.”</p>
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https://www.vox.com/2020/3/17/21168323/latino-vote-sanders-florida-primary-cubansNicole Narea2018-10-03T09:45:00-04:002018-10-03T09:45:00-04:00The charisma-free, extremely expensive Florida Senate race, explained
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<figcaption>Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Florida Gov. Rick Scott. | Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Rick Scott vs. Bill Nelson could be one of the most expensive campaigns in 2018.</p> <p id="qpH0MP">The Florida Senate race has given Democrats plenty of reason to be nervous this year.</p>
<p id="uRneNY">Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is facing <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/26/politics/rick-scott-florida-senate/index.html">Republican Gov. Rick Scott</a>, one of the best recruits for Republicans in <a href="https://www.vox.com/midterm-elections">the 2018 midterm elections</a> and a wealthy candidate whose campaign is already outspending Nelson’s by a 4-to-1 margin. The two faced off in a debate on Tuesday night.</p>
<p id="5Xbuj9">Nelson has built a reasonably strong brand, representing Florida in the Senate since 2001. Scott, meanwhile, has never won a race by more than a point in years friendlier to the GOP. But the GOP governor is still a serious threat in a state where elections are rarely decided by more than a point or two.</p>
<p id="9riwJC">For most of the summer, Scott had jumped out to a slim lead in <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html">the polling</a> — and a major advantage in campaign spending, spending more than $27 million to Nelson’s $6 million, according to <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=FLS1">Open Secrets</a>. Democrats have had to hope the lopsided spending explained the Republican lead in the polls and can therefore be corrected as their own spending picks up in the last weeks of the campaign.</p>
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<p id="noYDX4">“Having been in the fight with Scott in the past, there is a flow to the way they campaign: they use their financial advantage to get on TV early, and Scott, to his credit, is tireless on the stump,” Steve Schale, a Democratic operative in Florida, told me. “So am I worried about Nelson? Sure, but not any more or less than any Democrat running in a competitive race here. This race was always destined to be close, it is just how Florida works these days, for better or worse.”</p>
<p id="J0Cxwy">Florida is one of 2018’s marquee — and probably its most expensive — Senate races. Democrats are on defense in yet another state Trump won in 2016. They can’t afford to lose any additional seats if they’re to have any hope of reclaiming the majority.</p>
<p id="bXyJZ6">“The two biggest determinants in the Senate race are, one, resources and, two, Donald Trump,” Mac Stipanovich, a longtime Republican operative in Florida, told me earlier this year. “Either one of them can win, but my sense is that if Nelson has comparable resources then the governor is the underdog.”</p>
<h3 id="9HkKQQ">Why Rick Scott’s Florida Senate candidacy is such a big deal</h3>
<p id="1yvXFi">Scott’s candidacy was long expected. Trump and Washington Republicans had been courting him. He is term-limited at the end of this year, after his two four-year terms as governor. He doesn’t really have anything else to do.</p>
<p id="OIeWWV">Rick Scott is also very, very rich, and he has shown before he’s willing to spend whatever it takes to win a statewide election in Florida.</p>
<p id="w3aW0M">He is worth <a href="https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Florida-Gov-Rick-Scott-Worth-Nearly-150-Million-431853983.html">about $150 million</a>, according to the most recent estimates, after making his money as a hospital executive. He <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/03/AR2010110308525.html">spent $75 million</a> of his own money to win the 2010 gubernatorial race — his first political campaign of any kind — and <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/rick-scott-florida-self-funding-112403">another $13 million</a> in his 2014 reelection campaign.</p>
<p id="2yFue6">Scott never won big: He beat Alex Sink by 1.2 percentage points in 2010 and Charlie Crist by 1 point in 2014. But he did win.</p>
<p id="658OB6">“With Scott, this is a guy who’s been told he can’t do something like this twice, and twice proven everybody wrong,” Schale told me. “A more conventional politician might look at national mood and think, ‘Wow, this could be really uphill.’ Scott’s view is: ‘You told me I couldn’t win the first time, and I won. Why would I listen to you now?’”</p>
<p id="EIJxjN">Scott’s candidacy is also important from a national perspective. Republicans theoretically have a lot of Senate pickup opportunities this year; Nelson is one of 10 Democrats up for reelection in a state that Trump won in 2016. But they have at times struggled to attract top-tier candidates. To give one example: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, representing Montana, a state that Trump won by 21 points, is still rated lean Democratic by the <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings">Cook Political Report</a> because his GOP opponent isn’t considered top-notch and Tester has polled well.</p>
<p id="6MuUT1">The Florida governor, on the other hand, is a hardened, well-qualified, and sure to be well-funded candidate. Scott has forced Democrats to take Florida seriously and to invest the necessary time and money into the race to make sure Nelson beats Scott. This race has demanded resources Democrats otherwise could have spent defending their other more vulnerable incumbents or going on offense in states like <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/12/16877796/mcsally-announcement-arizona-senate">Arizona</a>, Nevada, or <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/21/17125262/mississippi-senate-race-2018-chris-mcdaniel-mike-espy-cindy-hyde-smith">Mississippi</a>. </p>
<p id="YVslK5">Republicans currently hold a slim 51-49 advantage in the Senate. Democrats are defending seven of the 10 most competitive races this fall, and need to hold on to every seat they can — including, now, Florida, which Cook <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings">rates</a> as a toss-up — if they want a shot at a majority.</p>
<p id="XwNdTu">“This is a very competitive race, and if the Democrats don’t lay out on it, they’ll lose. They are going to have to step up and help Bill Nelson,” Stipanovich said. “If Scott outspends him 2 to 1, it’s quite likely that Gov. Scott will prevail.”</p>
<p id="Jw9Izz">The current spending figures give Scott that kind of advantage: Open Secret <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=FLS1">reports</a> that Scott has raised $31 million to Nelson’s $20 million and spent nearly $28 million to Nelson’s $6 million.</p>
<p id="xWOz7S">Perhaps as a result, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html">Real Clear Politics</a> had Scott leading Nelson by one or two points on average in the polls, until recently. Nelson now holds an equally slim 1.1-point advantage, after a couple of strong surveys. It’s a very close race.</p>
<h3 id="gU2nYu">The charisma-free Rick Scott versus Bill Nelson campaign, previewed</h3>
<p id="9nVXLn">As for the candidates themselves, the Florida Senate race has been lacking in charisma. That was clear again in Tuesday night’s debate. Schale had previously said of his fellow Democrat Nelson: “Not a guy who’s lining up to give the keynote speech at the DNC. Not gonna break any records for his oratory skills.”</p>
<p id="H1V1if">Regarding Scott, Stipanovich, the Republican operative, had said: “Gov. Scott doesn’t exactly light up the stage. He’s not the most dynamic and inspiring speaker.”</p>
<p id="EnAwJS">I profiled Scott in 2013 <a href="http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-florida-governor-rick-scott.html">for Governing magazine </a>and came away with much the same impression:</p>
<blockquote><p id="65jAeL">At the Florida statehouse for National Day of Prayer this May, for instance, the businessman who won Florida’s governorship in 2010 doesn’t work the room so much as he goes through the motions. He dons the same slight smile as each photo is taken. He exchanges a few friendly words with every person who approaches him in the large room on the 21st floor of the Capitol. Standing by the windows, he’s framed by an expansive view of Tallahassee and beyond, but he doesn’t own the scene. There isn’t the charisma you might associate with the governor of the fourth-largest state in the country.</p></blockquote>
<p id="FGBHB8">Scott has tried to turn that to his advantage in his campaign.</p>
<p id="QM0O6K">“Let’s stop sending talkers to Washington. Let’s send some doers to Washington,” he said in his maiden campaign speech. It’s a theme he hits constantly throughout his campaign, portraying Nelson as an aging career politician with nothing to show for his many years in the Senate.</p>
<p id="qjJDqQ">Nelson, meanwhile, has sought to paint Scott as a political opportunist who isn’t being honest about his record as Florida’s governor.</p>
<p id="0n3KQu">“While it’s clear that Rick Scott will say or do anything to get elected, I’ve always believed that if you just do the right thing, the politics will take care of itself,” he said in a statement.</p>
<p id="OuiLR2">They do have strengths, of course. Nelson has been elected in the state three times, after all, most recently by 13 points in 2012 — unheard of in a state where statewide elections are usually decided by a point or two. Schale praised the senator (who once famously went to space) for sticking to Florida-specific issues, like offshore drilling and Medicare for the state’s more elderly population, while mostly avoiding the high-profile spats in Washington on more contentious matters.</p>
<p id="vi4aD7">“Nelson does a pretty good job as well of avoiding those big fights,” Schale said. “He’s a guy who leans in really hard on issues that are important to the state.”</p>
<p id="07YMYt">Scott, meanwhile, rode into office on the Tea Party wave, railing against Obamacare. He seemed for all appearances an ideologue, famously rejecting <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/us/17rail.html">money for a high-speed rail</a> from the Obama administration, to the chagrin of even some Republicans in his state.</p>
<p id="nuvW3k">But over the years, he has moderated himself. He has become almost comically on message, refusing to talk about anything except for jobs and the economy and a few other pet issues he picks every legislative session, like raises for teachers. The thrust of his 2018 campaign message has been <a href="https://www.flgov.com/2018/08/17/gov-scott-floridas-unemployment-rate-lowest-in-over-a-decade/">the 1.6 million jobs</a> created while he’s been governor.</p>
<p id="NwFj5K">“In the beginning, similar to but not the same as Trump, he had the CEO syndrome,” Stipanovich said. But “he’s gotten better at doing the job. Fewer gaffes, fewer unforced errors, more discipline.”</p>
<p id="PpP0xF">More recently, after the Parkland high school shooting that killed 17 people, Scott defied the National Rifle Association and got <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/3/7/17093142/parkland-florida-gun-control-guardian-program">some modest gun control measures</a> passed in a state that had been to date one of the most gun-friendly in the country. People from both parties commended how the governor handled that crisis. “Scott was actually pretty active in that fight,” Schale said. “He was the first governor to stand up to the NRA.”</p>
<p id="9Kbw3K">But Democrats will “make sure Nelson has everything he needs because you can’t go forward if you go backward first,” Schale said. “It’s hard to imagine a scenario where we win the Senate without winning Florida.”</p>
<p id="yavIWP">The <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/20/17860508/florida-elections-2018-governor-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis">governor’s campaign</a> is also a wild card, with exciting young Democrat Andrew Gillum polling notably better than Nelson in his race against Republican Ron DeSantis. If enthusiasm for Gillum, the first black candidate for governor ever in Florida history, drives strong Democratic turnout, that would be a boon for Nelson’s chances.</p>
<p id="I0BzEP">But, ultimately, the race is likely to be determined most by Trump.</p>
<h3 id="xouXVh">How Donald Trump will shape the 2018 Florida Senate campaign</h3>
<p id="HzECNN">Trump won Florida by 100,000 votes in 2016. The state remains divided on the president: Morning Consult <a href="https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/">reported</a> in July that 50 percent of Floridians approved of Trump and 46 percent disapproved.</p>
<p id="WBGh7f">Once upon a time, Scott was one of Trump’s biggest fans. He <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/07/rick-scott-to-chair-pro-trump-super-pac-104308">chaired</a> a pro-Trump Super PAC, <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/01/rick-scott-gushes-over-donald-trump-in-op-ed-029706">endorsed</a> the future president in a laudatory USA Today op-ed well before most GOP politicians were doing the same, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zIC935v37c">spoke</a> at the Republican National Convention. Trump has been one of <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2017/12/31/scott-to-meet-dine-with-trump-at-mar-a-lago-165109">the biggest boosters</a> of Scott’s potential candidacy, and his administration <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/03/26/records-zinkes-office-refute-scott-framing-of-impromptu-oil-drilling-reversal-330060">hasn’t hesitated</a> to bestow some favors on Scott, like rolling back an unpopular plan to allow oil drilling off the state’s shores.</p>
<p id="AK05Sd">Lately, Scott has tried to put a little distance between himself and the president, notably <a href="http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-rick-scott-trump-immigration-20180111-story.html">condemning</a> Trump’s racist “shithole” comments regarding African nations and criticizing the offshore drilling plan. He also opposed the Trump administration’s family separations policy during the crisis at the Mexican border; Florida has a large bloc of Hispanic voters.</p>
<p id="5F4iw8">“This is a conundrum faced by Republicans everywhere: Can Rick Scott get far enough away from Donald Trump to survive a competitive campaign?” Stipanovich said. “More recently, he is much less likely to embrace Trump publicly on some issue. He’ll bob and weave and obfuscate. That’s telling in itself.”</p>
<p id="Eiz4DY">“A year ago, he could not wait to wrap himself around Donald Trump,” Stipanovich noted.</p>
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/6/17181110/rick-scott-bill-nelson-florida-senate-2018-midterm-electionsDylan Scott2018-08-30T14:17:20-04:002018-08-30T14:17:20-04:00Live results for Tuesday’s Oklahoma primaries runoff
<figure>
<img alt="Oklahoma Live Election Results" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/b9ZsEZ1ZZ30Sth8ucAb7c7RNQSs=/1111x0:4167x2292/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/61051335/shareimage_oklahoma.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Oklahoma Live Election Results | Amanda Northrop</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A key races for governor is on the ballot in Tuesday’s Oklahoma runoff primary. </p> <p id="87pwIz"><a href="https://www.vox.com/midterm-elections/2018/8/28/17788204/florida-arizona-primary-elections-kelli-ward-rick-scott">Oklahoma</a> voters headed to the polls for <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/27/17773110/primary-elections-2018-arizona-florida-oklahoma">runoff elections</a> on Tuesday, in large part to pick the Republican nominee for governor. Tulsa business executive Kevin Stitt defeated Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, giving hope to Democrats who want a shot at picking off this governor’s mansion.</p>
<p id="ZduSI2">Polls closed at 7 pm local time/8 pm Eastern. Live results are below, powered by Decision Desk. </p>
<p id="NjdeHZ">!COMPONENT:ad width=300 height=250 position=amp_med_rec</p>
<h2 id="OBQ7HY">Oklahoma governor Republican primary runoff</h2>
<h4 id="NggG6c">Republican Gov. Mary Fallin is retiring, leaving an open seat</h4>
<p id="MLLqka">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3054</p>
<p id="eESXr0">Kevin Stitt won on Tuesday and he will face Democrat and former Oklahoma Attorney General Drew Edmondson, the scion of an Oklahoma political family. Edmonson unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2010 and is trying again, with much better odds for an open seat in a year that favors Democrats. </p>
<p id="gBwwZl">Stitt will face a very tough battle in the general election, given how Republican the state is. Even with some surprising special election results and a recent <a href="https://www.vox.com/2017/8/15/16059514/anna-langthorn-democratic-party-oklahoma">upswell of Democratic energy</a>, Cook rates this race Solid Republican.</p>
https://www.vox.com/a/primary-election-results-august-2018/oklahoma-primary-runoff-resultsElla NilsenDylan ScottRyan MarkKavya SukumarAmanda Northrop2018-08-30T14:17:19-04:002018-08-30T14:17:19-04:00Live results for Tuesday’s Arizona primaries
<figure>
<img alt="Arizona Live Election Results" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5txjk43h9v7oitl7f4uo07WVhgk=/1111x0:4167x2292/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/61051265/shareimage_arizona.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Arizona Live Election Results | Amanda Northrop</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Key races for House and Senate are on the ballot in Tuesday’s Arizona primaries. </p> <p id="ZJzVWO"><a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/28/17786532/arizona-senate-primary-mcsally-ward-arpaio-midterms">Arizona</a> voters headed to the polls Tuesday to choose nominees in four key <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/27/17773110/primary-elections-2018-arizona-florida-oklahoma">primary elections</a>: Senate, governor, and two House races. </p>
<p id="Ff9gJc">The most closely watched race was the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/27/17786798/mccain-mcsally-kelli-ward-arpaio-arizona-primary">Republican primary</a> for the Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Jeff Flake between Rep. Martha McSally, Kelli Ward, and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. </p>
<p id="m9C0il">On Tuesday night, McSally prevailed with relative ease, setting up a November showdown with Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.</p>
<p id="P7qICs">There’s also a competitive Democratic primary for governor to see who will challenge Republican incumbent Doug Ducey and two House races — including one where Democrats Ann Kirkpatrick and Matt Heinz are fighting bitterly.</p>
<p id="R2MbF6">Results won’t began reporting at 11 pm Eastern due to some areas of the state that follow Daylight Savings Time. Live results are below, powered by Decision Desk.</p>
<p id="aLlT0J">!COMPONENT:ad width=300 height=250 position=amp_med_rec</p>
<h2 id="bN65Ds">Arizona Senate primary</h2>
<h4 id="Qh49ws">Sen. Jeff Flake is retiring, leaving an open seat</h4>
<p id="QtHeei">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3041</p>
<p id="Vik23V">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="INaXpq">Rep. Martha McSally won the Republican primary for US Senate, putting an end to a <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/12/16877796/mcsally-announcement-arizona-senate">bitter competition</a> that played out between Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio, two hardline, Trumpy Republicans. (Remember, President Trump pardoned Arpaio earlier this year for criminal contempt of court, a misdemeanor.) McSally, meanwhile, is facing <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/alexislevinson/donald-trump-martha-mcsally-arizona-senate-primary">questions about her loyalty to Trump</a> — she didn’t endorse him in 2016 but now calls him a “friend.”</p>
<p id="cZ1WFO">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<p id="0pfXwE">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3040</p>
<p id="zyLVEy">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="QQRd3a"><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/12/16877796/mcsally-announcement-arizona-senate">Arizona</a> is a key pickup opportunity for Democrats after Republican Sen. Jeff Flake announced he wouldn’t seek reelection. Democratic candidate Rep. Kyrsten Sinema easily won her race; she had a little-known challenger named Deedra Abboud.</p>
<p id="yZzr1x">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<h2 id="up3zll">Arizona governor primary</h2>
<h4 id="mbOqCI">Democrats are challenging Republican Doug Ducey</h4>
<p id="gHzbkd">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3039</p>
<p id="3S7qeu">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="npZ4bs">Ducey won the Republican primary, despite a challenge. Ducey’s approval rating has fallen in recent weeks, and he is facing a tough dynamic with the state’s fired-up teachers, who marched on the state capitol by the tens of thousands, demanding better pay.</p>
<p id="qzQTzW">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<p id="stqk1q">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3038</p>
<p id="etWhrw">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="goss8Y">On the Democratic side, David Garcia has <a href="http://ktar.com/story/2184533/david-garcia-holds-solid-lead-in-arizona-democratic-gubernatorial-race/">maintained a steady lead in the polls</a>, with Steve Farley in second place. Garcia is running as a progressive; he supports Medicare-for-all and campaign finance reform. (He <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/08/16/arizona-elections-governor-candidate-david-garcia-campaign-returning-lobbyist-donations/992556002/">recently pledged to return</a> almost $7,000 worth of campaign contributions he got from individuals identified as lobbyists after promising to take no lobbyist money.)</p>
<p id="K88VA1">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<p id="t3TCnt">!COMPONENT:ad width=300 height=250 position=amp_med_rec</p>
<h2 id="MWaehd">Arizona’s First Congressional District</h2>
<h4 id="Zm0tJT">Democrat Tom O’Halleran is up for reelection</h4>
<p id="QUI14O">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3042</p>
<p id="pYWtKp">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="kh2AfF">Incumbent Rep. Tom O’Halleran is facing a challenge from Republicans. O’Halleran actually used to be a Republican himself when he was in the Arizona state legislature, but he left the party in 2014 and ran as a Democrat two years later. The district voted for Trump in 2016.</p>
<p id="3ji4Rs">O’Halleran is unopposed, but on the Republican side, there’s a Trump loyalty contest going on. Steve Smith is running on his experience as an elected official, but Wendy Rogers is <a href="https://tucson.com/news/local/three-republicans-vie-to-challenge-o-halleran-in-congressional-district/article_77643dc0-5671-5905-bf75-c1615e25a91f.html">garnering a fair amount of name recognition</a> and is running on her loyalty to the president.</p>
<p id="2jDNvg">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<h2 id="yTe53I">Arizona’s Second Congressional District</h2>
<h4 id="TNHWft">Rep. Martha McSally’s seat is open</h4>
<p id="22MWid">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3044</p>
<p id="EGTzE2">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="ZWzF8o">There are competitive Republican and Democratic primaries for McSally’s seat. Republican candidates including CEO of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce Marquez Peterson, veteran Brandon Martin, and former Douglas City Councilor Danny Morales are running. Peterson leads in fundraising. </p>
<p id="MZFF7j">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<p id="bDzSHr">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3043</p>
<p id="oNPMyf">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="Z6A0vw">Doctor and former Arizona state Rep. Matt Heinz and former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick are the frontrunners. Kirkpatrick has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, while Heinz was the Democratic nominee for the district in 2016.</p>
<p id="dvsOFo">There’s a bitter fight brewing between Heinz and Kirkpatrick, who are pretty close in the polls and running negative ads against each other. Heinz recently compared Kirkpatrick’s quest to return to Washington to <a href="https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/671695/tucson-is-hosting-the-hottest-democratic-primary-in-the-country?mref=search-result&unlock=DFYI8PI52JGILYOH">meth addiction</a>. </p>
<p id="tAC4CP">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
https://www.vox.com/a/primary-election-results-august-2018/arizona-primary-resultsElla NilsenDylan ScottRyan MarkAmanda NorthropKavya Sukumar2018-08-30T14:17:19-04:002018-08-30T14:17:19-04:00Live results for Tuesday’s Florida primaries
<figure>
<img alt="Florida Live Election Results" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/P5IZTp_DcGK8biHZCg4ODI0Yxds=/1111x0:4167x2292/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/61051303/shareimage_florida.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Florida Live Election Results | Amanda Northrop</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Key races for House and Senate are on the ballot in Tuesday’s Florida primaries. </p> <p id="56B22J"><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/28/17787310/florida-primary-2018-demographic-trump">Florida</a> voters picked the Democratic and Republican candidates for their state’s critical governor and Senate races in <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/27/17773110/primary-elections-2018-arizona-florida-oklahoma">Tuesday’s primary elections</a>, setting up two of 2018’s most important campaigns.</p>
<p id="uI3ODt"><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/24/17772818/florida-primary-elections-2018-governor-desantis-putnam-graham">Republicans Ron DeSantis</a> easily won the GOP gubernatorial primary to replace <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/6/17181110/rick-scott-bill-nelson-florida-senate-primary-elections-2018">Gov. Rick Scott</a>, who is running for Senate against incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. </p>
<p id="5nxC6x">In a shocking upset, Tallahassee Mayor <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/28/17794386/andrew-gillum-florida-democratic-nominee-governor-tallahassee-mayor-gwen-graham">Andrew Gillum</a> defeated establishment pick Gwen Graham. He supports a progressive agenda: <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1034597103601942528">a Medicare-for-all single-payer health care system</a>, abolishing ICE, raising its minimum wage to $15 and raising the corporate tax rate to pay for education. He earned endorsements from Bernie Sanders and Tom Steyer. Before Gillum’s win, he was coming in at just 16 points in the most recent polls. </p>
<p id="ARkxvC">Democrats also have openings to pick up a few House seats in heavily gerrymandered Sunshine State, and both parties have decisions to make on congressional candidates in Tuesday’s primaries.</p>
<p id="2LLnzL">Polls close at 8 pm ET. Live results are below, powered by Decision Desk.</p>
<p id="NPj1BG">!COMPONENT:ad width=300 height=250 position=amp_med_rec</p>
<h2 id="miE3KM">Florida governor primary</h2>
<h4 id="sGSgzu">Ron DeSantis, Adam Putnam, and Gwen Graham lead the Republican and Democratic fields</h4>
<p id="dIlKfS">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3004</p>
<p id="0YagKP">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="GAdEdT">Rep. Ron DeSantis and state agriculture commissioner Adam Putnam are the two main contenders. DeSantis desperately sought, and outright asked for, Donald Trump’s endorsement and got it. That’s all you need in a state where you really can’t run too far to the right in a GOP primary. Meanwhile, Putnam, the establishment choice, sought to walk a tightrope of not disavowing Trump entirely while still criticizing DeSantis for being little more than a Trump puppet. It didn’t work.</p>
<p id="JUwGgv">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<p id="axEC4i">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3003</p>
<p id="CSgS5u">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="vRHY1J">Gwen Graham, a former member of Congress and daughter of a former governor and senator, was the presumed frontrunner. But Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has attracted a lot of excitement on the left — he supports Medicare-for-all and got the Bernie Sanders endorsement — and he surged to a late-breaking win. </p>
<p id="ykCAQB">Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine and business leader Jeff Greene finished in double digits and had a lot of money on hand.</p>
<p id="85zrWu">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<h2 id="WKrnvC">Florida Senate primary</h2>
<h4 id="dPTn1P">Rick Scott has a clear path to the GOP nomination</h4>
<p id="X6nZvQ">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3005</p>
<p id="t6AUdW">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="9cUCLH">This is one of 2018’s most competitive Senate races. </p>
<p id="BZWs4b">Scott is maybe the GOP’s best Senate recruit this cycle: a pretty popular two-term governor with as much money to spend as he wants. His money advantage — he’s outspent Dem Bill Nelson by a 4-to-1 margin thus far — may explain his narrow lead in the early polls against an incumbent in a year that overall favors Democrats.</p>
<p id="xxSeW0">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<h2 id="0UH9ZA">Florida’s Sixth Congressional District</h2>
<h4 id="IXFaJS">A tight race to succeed Republican Ron DeSantis</h4>
<p id="ZIRoaM">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3013</p>
<p id="fQJl9r">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="7yHc7n">DeSantis vacated this seat to run for governor. It was a competitive race to replace him: Michael Waltz is a Marine combat veteran who’s raised a lot of money, John Ward is a Navy vet who is also fundraising well, and former state Rep. Fred Costello has the endorsement of Florida Attorney General and Trump ally Pat Bondi and the NRA. Ultimately, Waltz won. </p>
<p id="NAOfli">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<p id="Fy81A2">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3012</p>
<p id="lAmkia">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="yWL9TQ">Nancy Soderberg, former ambassador to the United Nations, is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s <a href="https://redtoblue.dccc.org/">Red-to-Blue list</a>. She easily defeated Stephen Sevigny, a medical radiologist, and attorney John Upchruch.</p>
<p id="yYbVbz">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<p id="iRj5xY">!COMPONENT:ad width=300 height=250 position=amp_med_rec</p>
<h2 id="lPmQJ8">Florida’s Seventh Congressional District</h2>
<h4 id="PWHER3">A rare pick-up opportunity for Republicans</h4>
<p id="e0tcyF">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3015</p>
<p id="alt5rQ">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="bfs5Ba">State Rep. Mike Miller, first elected in 2014, defeated his prime competition: business executiveScott Sturgill. They both raised six figures for their campaigns. Vennia Francois, a first-generation American whose family came to the United States from the Bahamas, was also on the ballot.</p>
<p id="naLz5W">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<h2 id="w57URO">Florida’s 15th Congressional District</h2>
<h4 id="zKOXFe">Two credible GOP candidates, and an establishment Dem battles the left</h4>
<p id="SA9vD3">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3021</p>
<p id="oJcTZ1">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="Aa4txY">Rep. Dennis Ross is stepping down. Current state Rep. Ross Spano was one of the two favorites for the GOP nod to replace him. Spano was the fundraising leader and got endorsements from Sen. Marco Rubio and Pam Bondi.</p>
<p id="IFwqej">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<p id="gd0blc">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3020</p>
<p id="P9bRKE">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="VdstTB">Attorney Kristen Carlson defeated her competition: Navy vet and business leader Andrew Learned. Carlson describes herself as more moderate and got the Emily’s List endorsement, while Learned said that he would support Medicare-for-all and received the backing of the Indivisible grassroots group.</p>
<p id="Y1eN4v">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<h2 id="HtRXRp">Florida’s 16th Congressional District</h2>
<h4 id="2ge1SR">Democrats vie to challenge Vern Buchanan</h4>
<p id="9L6ZWS">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3022</p>
<p id="3azdfb">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="VLnXND">David Shapiro, a local attorney, is another name on the DCCC’s Red to Blue battleground list. He defeated Jan Schneider, who was the Democratic nominee for this district in 2016 and lost to Buchanan by nearly 20 points.</p>
<p id="918kFt">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<h2 id="sNZiO8">Florida’s 18th Congressional District</h2>
<h4 id="TXxO14">Republican Brian Mast faces challenges in primary and general </h4>
<p id="lFtucu">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3026</p>
<p id="QCyfgW">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="jS1Vn4">Rep. Brian Mast, first elected in 2016, voted for Obamacare repeal and the tax bill. He won his primary against Second Amendment-loving, environmentally conscious Dave Cummings and doctor Mark Freeman, who lost to Mast in the 2016 Republican primary.</p>
<p id="BvHdc8">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<p id="rRXrXA">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3025</p>
<p id="Ir1r1w">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="633dsY">Another DCCC favorite won here: Lauren Baer, who worked in Barack Obama’s State Department. She beat attorney Pam Keith, who ran and lost in the Democratic primary for US Senate in 2016.</p>
<p id="EiibED">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<h2 id="IvcCHU">Florida’s 26th Congressional District</h2>
<h4 id="1YDKTy">Carlos Curbelo awaits his Democratic opponent</h4>
<p id="l3SQBW">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3033</p>
<p id="BOC5nU">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="I71PSO">DCCC-backed candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who works in nonprofits won against and Ret. Navy Cmdr. Demetries Grimes. </p>
<p id="y9p6lz">Republican incumbent Carlos Curbelo has represented this D+6 rated district since 2015, and was reelected even as the district voted for Hillary Clinton by 16 points in 2016. He’s a moderate Republican who has made headlines <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/5/9/17335640/immigration-congress-daca-law-news">trying</a> (and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/6/12/17456948/house-vote-daca-immigration-trump-republicans">failing</a>) to spur action on immigration reform within the House GOP. </p>
<p id="6SbnYb">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<p id="7XkHfB">!COMPONENT:ad width=300 height=250 position=amp_med_rec</p>
<h2 id="cf4w8R">Florida’s 27th Congressional District</h2>
<h4 id="9Yb4gU">A lively Republican primary to replace Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in toss-up race</h4>
<p id="Gr3V0E">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3037</p>
<p id="cU6eeT">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="WB11yB">In this crowded field, journalist Maria Elvira Salazar came out on top, defeating Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, former Vice Mayor of Doral Bettina Rodriguez-Aguilera (who <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/voters-guide/article216932145.html">got the Miami Herald’s endorsement</a> and has the unusual background of having <a href="https://www.thecut.com/2018/08/bettina-rodriguez-aguilar-flordia-more-than-just-an-alien-abductee.html">said she was abducted by aliens</a>), veteran Elizabeth Adadi, songwriter and Latin Grammy Award winner Angie Chirino, veteran and entrepreneur Michael Ohevzion, educator Maria Peiro, and documentary filmmaker Gina Sosa. </p>
<p id="YIcAZE">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
<p id="m9nCL9">!COMPONENT:results dd_id=3036</p>
<p id="X54tnn">!COMPONENT:block read-more</p>
<p id="NckseG">Bill Clinton’s former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala, at 77, won the primary for this seat, defeating state Rep. David Richardson, former Miami Herald reporter Matt Haggman, Miami Beach Commissioner Rosen Gonzalez, and former University of Miami academic adviser Michael Hepburn.</p>
<p id="Ovl3Tu">!COMPONENT:end-block</p>
https://www.vox.com/a/primary-election-results-august-2018/florida-primary-resultsElla NilsenDylan ScottRyan MarkKavya SukumarAmanda Northrop2018-08-30T07:00:02-04:002018-08-30T07:00:02-04:00Polling got Andrew Gillum’s victory in Florida very wrong. 8 experts on how that happened.
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-5E6rXceOVt30z80k-1WnfF_DxU=/265x0:3000x2051/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/61072005/GettyImages_514752326.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum at a get-out-the-vote event on March 10, 2016, in Santa Monica, California. | Michael Kovac/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pollsters likely miscalculated who was going to turn out. </p> <p id="0IDOvn">Going into the Florida governor’s primaries on Wednesday, top-line polls had <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/28/17793198/florida-primary-results-andrew-gillum-governor">the eventual Democratic winner Andrew Gillum</a> in <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/Florida.html">fourth place</a>, with most showing him getting just 12 percent of voters’ support on average. Gillum — <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/28/17794386/andrew-gillum-florida-democratic-nominee-governor-tallahassee-mayor-gwen-graham">the state’s first African-American gubernatorial nominee</a> — ended up pulling off a major upset and taking the nomination with more than 34 percent of the vote. </p>
<p id="aL0dVN">The unexpected outcome led to many observers wondering how exactly the polls — which consistently favored a victory by establishment candidate<strong> </strong>Gwen Graham — could have gotten it so wrong, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/9/13574724/donald-trump-polling">again</a>. Polling experts say there are likely a few factors at play, including the heightened volatility of polling in primary elections, when it can be more challenging to identify likely voters. </p>
<p id="TMpzkm">“Only a small percentage of the electorate actually vote and that electorate is not stable from election to election,” said Chris Jackson, a vice president at Ipsos, a market research firm. Because of this, “it’s tougher sometimes to get a representative sample [during primaries],” Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown said. The sample of people polled may not have fully captured what the ultimate electorate ended up looking like.</p>
<p id="ZkE2yb">Young voters and African-American voters — who ended up turning out heavily for Gillum — were potentially among the groups that were underrepresented in these polls, Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, said. Undecided voters, who accounted for more than 20 percent of the folks who were surveyed, on average, and whose preferences were likely masked in earlier surveys, appeared to go heavily for Gillum on Election Day as well, according to Florida-based political consultant Doug Kaplan.</p>
<p id="EKeisa">Here’s what eight experts had to say about the polling disconnect in the Tuesday primary. </p>
<p id="8H6wnj">These responses have been lightly edited for length and clarity.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="R0H8ud">
<h3 id="ojxqu0">African-American voters and younger voters were among the groups to give Gillum a boost. They may have been underestimated by the polls.</h3>
<p id="8MymzC"><strong>Celinda Lake, Lake Research Partners, president</strong></p>
<p id="THExWv">Polls missed youth turnout, and that happened in other races like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s. The campaign also targeted campuses that just got back [in session]. Polls missed the enthusiasm and solidification of the African-American vote and the base Andrew had there. </p>
<p id="iNltRv"><strong>Doug Kaplan, Gravis Marketing, president</strong></p>
<p id="xhv2u1">The race was very close. The undecided voters on Election Day broke toward Gillum. [Philip] Levine and [Jeff] Greene collapsed on Election Day, along with an increased turnout. [Compared to the 2016 primary], the GOP saw increased voter turnout by 13.5 percent; Democrats saw increased voter turnout by 35 percent. </p>
<p id="n1NrXH"><strong>Jay Leve, SurveyUSA, president</strong></p>
<p id="KRIfsD">SurveyUSA’s poll had Gillum leading among African-American voters, leading among urban voters, leading in northwest Florida, and tied for the lead among voters age 35 to 49. Our published analysis — written two weeks before the primary and well before <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/06/28/in-major-boost-billionaire-tom-steyers-group-backs-andrew-gillum/">late liberal cash poured to Gillum</a> — called the contest a “free-for-all,” which it was. Ours was the only poll that did not show Gwen Graham as a clear frontrunner.</p>
<p id="tqCGgk">That said: there were a total of nine polls released by five different pollsters in the four months leading up to yesterday’s primary, and eight of the nine polls had Gillum in fourth place; 1 poll had Gillum tied for third. No poll gave Gillum more than 16 percent of the vote — less than half the 34 percent he won with.</p>
<p id="hSyvdm">Gillum pulled together a broad coalition of liberals and progressives, many of whom were white and Hispanic. He consolidated young voters from one end of the state to the other. For a Tallahassee mayor to win Broward County by more than 20,000 votes over a Miami Beach mayor speaks to the depth and breadth of his primary support.</p>
<p id="NlnCs5"><strong>Brandon Finnigan, Decision Desk HQ, director</strong></p>
<p id="IXJS3F"><em>(Vox live results are provided by DecisionDesk.)</em></p>
<p id="313Fmk">While his better-financed opponents were roaming about the state, Gillum resonated with African-American voters as the first potential black Governor of Florida. He won every county with a significant number of voters <em>and </em>an African-American population that exceeded the national average. </p>
<p id="83nK9G">In counties with very large African-American populations, he absolutely destroyed Graham. While all of the Democratic nominees made their rounds with African Americans, the big ones were basically fighting over white and Latino voters, leaving Gillum to dominate among African Americans and pull off the surprise win.</p>
<p id="G0Lixk">In a state where the Democratic Party is heavily dependent on nonwhite voters, a candidate that connects strongly with a minority bloc can win in a crowded field that spreads its energy across all blocs more evenly. This isn’t to say every Democratic voter that pulled for Gillum was black, but most black voters did so.</p>
<h3 id="g9l49W">Primary polling is volatile and proper methodology is crucial</h3>
<p id="HZibZ5"><strong>Chris Jackson, Ipsos Public Affairs, vice president</strong></p>
<p id="SPyuuc">In the Florida Democratic primary, about 1.5 million votes were cast or about 15 percent of the total Florida population. For a poll to accurately identify the correct 15 percent of the population is a significant undertaking.</p>
<p id="do62wN">The public polls that were conducted in the Florida primary either had small samples — less than 500 interviews — or were conducted by computer interviewing, or both. These methods of polling, while quite affordable, can really struggle with identifying small populations. These two points appear to have combined in Florida with polls understating the support for Gillum.</p>
<p id="EWWtoP"><strong>Jay Leve, SurveyUSA, president</strong></p>
<p id="LlvOWB">Primaries with more than two candidates on the ballot — there were seven candidates in Florida — can be volatile, with complex dynamics that are too subtle for pollsters to pick up. In Florida, all pollsters missed the fact that liberals who said in May, June, and July that they were flirting with Graham or Levine were in fact just waiting for the real thing to come along. In late August, it became clear that the real progressive was Gillum, and that’s who voters went home with.</p>
<p id="CGyUjW"><strong>Patrick Murray, Monmouth University polling, director</strong></p>
<p id="rlF8u3">Turnout for both parties was significantly higher than in prior Florida gubernatorial primaries, with the “populist” candidate doing better than projected in both contests. It seems highly likely that the 2018 primary electorate included a large number of voters with a history of only turning out in general elections. </p>
<p id="t4qfzD">Only Mason-Dixon used a full telephone frame (live calls to landlines and cell phones) drawn from a voter list. The others used an online panel for all interviews (SurveyUSA), or a hybrid of an online panel to “replace” cell phone calls and interactive voice response (IVR) calls to landlines either drawn from a voter list (FAU) or randomly dialed from all phone exchanges in Florida (Gravis).</p>
<p id="izds5U">Obviously, every poll missed the performance of Gillum, and to a lesser extent DeSantis, regardless of their methodological approaches.</p>
<p id="dBmgAb"><strong>Larry Sabato, University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, director</strong></p>
<p id="OCKpUo">Because there is no party cue to nudge voters a certain way [in a primary] — all candidates have a D next to their name — people depend on other cues to push them to the polls. These cues can kick in late, and not just because the primary is held in brutally hot late August. Voters mainly do not feel urgency to solidify their primary choice, again because in November they’ll vote for any Democrat nominated.</p>
<p id="EpFs7V">No doubt the [Sen. Bernie] Sanders endorsement did help Gillum, and it came late. Gillum didn’t air many TV ads compared to the others, so primary voters may have learned what they needed to know about him only in the last couple of weeks.</p>
<p id="WZqt7F">This was a big candidate field, relatively, and with a lot of moving parts in a primary, there can be fluctuation right up to Election Day.</p>
https://www.vox.com/2018/8/30/17796308/florida-primary-andrew-gillumLi Zhou2018-08-29T08:03:02-04:002018-08-29T08:03:02-04:004 winners and 1 loser from primary elections in Florida, Arizona, and Oklahoma
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<figcaption>Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum speaking during the third day of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia on July 27, 2016. | Paul Sancya/AP</figcaption>
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<p>A shocking win, and some weird soccer.</p> <p id="EZcC1S"><a href="https://www.vox.com/a/primary-election-results-august-2018/florida-primary-results">Florida</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/a/primary-election-results-august-2018/arizona-primary-results">Arizona</a> are inextricably linked in Americans’ minds as the lands of baseball spring training and old retirees who hate welfare but depend on big government programs for their standard of living. </p>
<p id="JFEMuo">But in political terms, the two states have headed in opposite directions in the Trump era. Florida, a classic swing state for the past 20 years, not only landed in the Trump column in November 2016 but <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/28/17787310/florida-primary-2018-demographic-trump">appears to have evolved further in a conservative direction</a> since Election Day.</p>
<p id="AvU5rt">Arizona, by contrast, has traditionally been a considerably more conservative state, but Hillary Clinton outperformed past Democratic nominees there in 2016 even though she ultimately fell short. What’s more, given the personal conflicts between President Donald Trump and Sens. Jeff Flake and <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/27/17786798/mccain-mcsally-kelli-ward-arpaio-arizona-primary">John McCain</a>, the Arizona Republican Party has been in a state of turmoil, and Democrats believe there are reservoirs of Trump-skeptical voters there ready to be tapped. </p>
<p id="rGelpA">The third state with <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/8/27/17773110/primary-elections-2018-arizona-florida-oklahoma">primaries</a> this Tuesday, <a href="https://www.vox.com/a/primary-election-results-august-2018/oklahoma-primary-runoff-results">Oklahoma</a>, is nobody’s idea of a swing state. But the state’s incumbent governor is comically unpopular due to a series of budget crises, Democrats have picked up a number of state legislative seats here in special elections, and the party has high hopes of making further gains down ballot. </p>
<p id="jizhmI">But in all these states in flux, a lot depends on the final selection of the candidates. Here’s what you need to know about who wins and who loses from the primary results.</p>
<h3 id="yMGsGP">Winner: the political revolution</h3>
<p id="OsNRaU">In Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, Bernie Sanders and his national political organization Our Revolution had what was in many ways an unusually strong candidate. </p>
<p id="Qe9OTS">While in many races, progressive groups have been forced to rely on political neophytes, in the Florida gubernatorial primary they had a solid, conventionally qualified nominee. That Gillum is also African American shouldn’t have hurt his odds, given the struggles Sanders had personally with black voters in the 2016 primary cycle. </p>
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<cite>Brynn Anderson/AP</cite>
<figcaption>Gillum talks with a supporter after speaking to voters and public school teachers at a rally in Miami Gardens, Florida, on August 19, 2018.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="t1oKOB">The polls said pretty clearly that it wasn’t working, with Gillum lagging in fourth place in the RealClearPolitics polling average and former Rep. Gwen Graham (daughter of former governor and former Sen. Bob Graham) a clear favorite. </p>
<p id="VhD1Ud">The polls were wrong. </p>
<p id="HnUmR3">Gillum came from more or less out of nowhere to massively overperform his poll numbers and snag the nomination based on soaring turnout. Most Democratic professionals seemed to regard him as clearly the less electable choice. Billionaire Democratic donor Tom Steyer is a Gillum fan, however, and between that and being the Sanders wing of the party’s best shot at electing a governor, he should be able to run a well-resourced campaign. And with Democrats nervous that young people and African Americans may not turn out in the midterms, running a young African-American candidate may not be the worst idea in the world. </p>
<h3 id="MaLNCr">Loser: Arizona Democrats</h3>
<p id="3yteEv">A few months ago, it looked like a confluence of bad luck and internal party conflicts could leave the long-dominant Arizona Republican Party facing a disastrous situation in November. </p>
<p id="iIkqvK">Instead, a lot of breaks have gone their way. That started with McCain staying in office long enough to ensure that there was only one open Republican-held Senate seat to defend in November rather than two. It continued with good fortune in the primary to succeed Jeff Flake, which attracted <em>two</em> insurgent Republicans (Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio) to split the anti-establishment vote and allow Rep. Martha McSally to secure the nomination. </p>
<p id="QzrTyb">This is the kind of race where one could easily have imagined Trump intervening — he’s a known Arpaio fan, and McSally distanced herself from Trump in 2016 — but his aides convinced him to stay quiet and left Republicans with by far their strongest nominee. McSally currently represents a swing district in the House, and her biography as a pioneering woman fighter pilot is an ideal antidote to the anti-Trump backlash among white women that’s helped Democrats in many races. </p>
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<cite>Matt York/AP</cite>
<figcaption>Senatorial candidate Martha McSally stands at the US-Mexico border speaking with ranchers near Arivaca, Arizona, on August 22, 2018.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="hOMSd5">Then in McSally’s hard-to-defend old House district, the Republican frontrunner looks to be a strong nominee in the form of Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce chief <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Lea_Marquez_Peterson">Lea Marquez Peterson</a>. Holding that seat is still an uphill battle, and public polling continues to give Rep. Kyrsten Sinema an edge. But Republicans have set themselves up with the best possible chance for success in an electoral cycle that once looked like it might go very wrong for them. </p>
<h3 id="5NJrbs">Winner: Oklahoma Democrats</h3>
<p id="wzp7zW">Oklahoma has long been one of the most conservative states in the nation, but its incumbent Republican governor is <a href="https://kcby.com/news/nation-world/gov-mary-fallin-owns-lowest-approval-rating-in-us-per-report">arguably the least popular governor in America</a> due to years of budgetary crisis driven by tax cuts and mismanagement of unpredictable fossil fuel revenue. </p>
<p id="0xNf2O">Consequently, Democrats managed to flip four state legislative seats in special elections last year and for the first time in years have hopes of winning a statewide race. Further bolstering those odds is the fact that they have a strong candidate for governor in the form of former Attorney General Drew Edmondson. </p>
<p id="7pZYqy">Oklahoma Republicans, meanwhile, <em>almost</em> got a strong recruit of their own in former Oklahoma City Mayor <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mick_Cornett">Mick Cornett</a>. Cornett ran the state’s largest city for 14 years, and his record of proven electoral success in Democrats’ electoral base is exactly what the doctor ordered to keep the state in Republican hands. </p>
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<cite>Sue Ogrocki/AP</cite>
<figcaption>Kevin Stitt speaks to supporters in Guthrie, Oklahoma, on January 10, 2018.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="zKGFci">But instead, the state’s Republican voters chose Tuesday night to nominate Kevin Stitt, a business leader who argued the state needs an outsider to clean up the mess and accused Cornett of running OKC as a “sanctuary city.” <a href="http://www.normantranscript.com/news/government/polls-suggest-edmondson-has-better-chance-against-stitt-than-cornett/article_017ec643-cebe-5f44-8747-3790d0bf2df5.html">Polls show Edmondson narrowly ahead of Stitt</a> in a head-to-head matchup, while he’s well behind Cornett. </p>
<h3 id="TW2tQu">Winner: Donald Trump</h3>
<p id="AaveQQ">A year ago, anyone would have said that Adam Putnam was the odds-on favorite to secure the Republican nomination to run for governor of Florida. A former House member well-liked by his colleagues in Washington, Putnam decamped for Tallahassee in 2010 and served two terms as the state’s agriculture commissioner. He had establishment support, solid conservative credentials, and in a state as big as Florida eight years of statewide exposure should have been a major advantage over his challenger, Rep. Ron DeSantis. </p>
<p id="KPmIhj">But DeSantis assiduously courted Trump, aggressively booking himself on Fox News as a pro-Trump talking head and impressing the White House. </p>
<p id="UAwj4m">The president, in turn, vocally endorsed DeSantis a few months ago and swiftly upended the race. Putnam’s poll numbers cratered, his establishment support vanished, and DeSantis ended up winning in a landslide. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Congressman Ron DeSantis is a brilliant young leader, Yale and then Harvard Law, who would make a GREAT Governor of Florida. He loves our Country and is a true FIGHTER!</p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/944276471614509057?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 22, 2017</a>
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<p id="zvn0tJ">There were no particularly noteworthy ideological disagreements between Putnam and DeSantis; the latter’s victory was really overwhelmingly based on the fact that Trump liked his TV hits. And the message to ambitious Republicans around the country is loud and clear — the way to get ahead in today’s GOP is to aggressively defend Trump’s antics in the never-ending media circus. </p>
<h3 id="FFsdvP">Winner: conservative soccer fans</h3>
<p id="ThgXv5">For whatever reason, while all this was playing out, Trump was tweeting about the 2026 World Cup.</p>
<div id="n4m17k">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Add the 2026 World Cup to our long list of accomplishments!</p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1034612092253470721?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 29, 2018</a>
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<p id="lAL0Hf">This doesn’t really have anything to do with Trump, but last year, a joint bid by the United States, Canada, and Mexico was accepted as the winner for a soccer tournament that is going to take place after Trump leaves office. Amazing accomplishment! </p>
https://www.vox.com/2018/8/28/17786858/primary-winners-losers-florida-arizona-oklahomaMatthew Yglesias2018-08-29T08:01:57-04:002018-08-29T08:01:57-04:00Andrew Gillum wins Florida governor primary in upset victory for the left
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<figcaption>Sen. Bernie Sanders and Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Andrew Gillum during a campaign rally in Tampa, Florida, on August 17, 2018. | Chris O’Meara/AP</figcaption>
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<p>The Tallahassee mayor will be the Democratic nominee in one of 2018’s most important governor’s races.</p> <p id="YybptU">Tallahassee mayor <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/24/17772818/florida-primary-elections-2018-governor-desantis-putnam-graham">Andrew Gillum</a> prevailed in the hotly contested <a href="https://www.vox.com/a/primary-election-results-august-2018/florida-primary-results">Democratic primary election for Florida governor</a>, giving the left another marquee win in the 2018 midterms.</p>
<p id="6DvSGX">Gillum is the first black Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Florida history. He won out over Gwen Graham, a former member of Congress, the daughter of a former governor and senator, and the presumed Democratic frontrunner; former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine; and businessman Jeff Greene. He will face Republican Ron DeSantis in November’s general election, a race that election forecasters have rated a toss-up.</p>
<p id="S8u8LG">The state capital’s mayor since 2014, Gillum is young at 39, black (he would also be Florida’s first black governor), and pretty far to the left ideologically. He received the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Our Revolution, and Democracy for America in the primary. He has proposed hiking the state’s corporate tax rate to fund education, raising its minimum wage to $15, and he endorsed <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1034597103601942528">a Medicare-for-all single-payer health care system</a> at the national level.</p>
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<cite>Lynne Sladky/AP</cite>
<figcaption>Gillum talks with residents in the Liberty City neighborhood of Miami on August 13, 2018.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="ACznEj">Gillum also supports expanding Medicaid under Obamacare, which Florida has thus far refused to do, leaving hundreds of thousands of its poorest residents without coverage. He has also joined with other progressive leaders who want to abolish the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/19/17116980/ice-abolish-immigration-arrest-deport">US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency</a> after the family separations crisis.</p>
<p id="7phkWD">There is also, however, an ongoing FBI investigation into corruption in the Tallahassee city government — though Gillum has not been implicated in any way, according to the <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/07/20/what-we-know-and-dont-know-about-the-fbi-investigation-hanging-over-andrew-gillums-campaign/">Tampa Bay Times</a>.</p>
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<p id="fNCydL">DeSantis, currently a member of the US House, has done everything he can to embrace Donald Trump, complete with a campaign ad in which he builds a wall with his daughter and puts his young son in a Make America Great Again onesie.</p>
<p id="0ZIzC4">Gillum had led in no independent polls before Tuesday’s primary, so his win is a genuine surprise. But political operatives in the state had picked up a sense of momentum for his campaign, and the last St. Pete Polls survey before the election found him trailing Graham by just 7 points.</p>
<p id="rC3V7Z">State politicos thought Gillum benefited from being the odd man out in what was at times a fierce battle between Graham and Greene in particular. Graham, who served one term in the US House and had the endorsement of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), had led in almost every public poll.</p>
<p id="qQBaNP">“Gillum is definitely rising,” Steve Schale, a Democratic operative in the state, told me before the primary. “When you have four people in the race, typically the one who is rising at the end is the one not being attacked.”</p>
<p id="HjARy5">Progressives have made inroads in Democratic primaries, but they’ve also lost plenty of races like the Florida governor’s race where there was an establishment alternative. Gillum stands out as the of the left’s biggest wins in 2018. Now he’s on to the general election.</p>
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/28/17793198/florida-primary-results-andrew-gillum-governorDylan Scott