Vox - Alabama Senate election: Democrat Doug Jones defeats Republican Roy Moorehttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52517/voxv.png2017-12-14T17:00:01-05:00http://www.vox.com/rss/stream/165230952017-12-14T17:00:01-05:002017-12-14T17:00:01-05:00Even the White House suggests Roy Moore should concede
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<img alt="Alabama GOP Senate Candidate Roy Moore Holds Election Night Party" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Xr0tImcroBUkOGZNnUl5J2RA-fM=/0x0:3000x2250/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/57987161/891286512.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>“Sounds like it should have already taken place,” the White House press secretary said.</p> <p id="uv8qh6">That fact that Doug Jones <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/12/16764846/alabama-special-election-results-roy-moore-doug-jones">won</a> the Alabama Senate special election on Tuesday is clear to everyone — except apparently to Roy Moore.</p>
<p id="lNyqIG">The Alabama Republican still refuses <a href="https://www.vox.com/2017/12/13/16770848/roy-moore-loses-concession-doug-jones-alabama-senate">to concede the race</a>, which he lost by more than 20,000 votes. Now even the White House — whose current occupant<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/940584383605563392"> went all in for Moore</a> — is basically telling him to give it up. </p>
<p id="QrCGRS">“Sounds like it should have already taken place,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders <a href="http://ttps://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/941383717196623872">said</a> Thursday during the daily press briefing, on whether Moore should have conceded. </p>
<p id="LlGmYi">Sanders said President Trump had already chatted with the Democrat, and now “likes Doug Jones and looks forward to meeting him in person.”</p>
<p id="gZnwaG">“I think the president’s position is pretty clear in his outreach to Doug Jones directly,” she said, regarding Trump’s position on Moore. “He called and they [Jones] spoke directly, they had a great conversation, a very positive conversation.”</p>
<p id="3dMJZ0">When asked if Moore lost fair and square, Sanders replied: “I think the numbers reflect that, and I think the president’s outreach shows that.”</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Q: So Roy Moore lost the election fair and square? <br><br>Sarah Sanders: "I think the numbers reflect that, and I think the president's outreach shows that." <a href="https://t.co/Q7lxTIv35E">pic.twitter.com/Q7lxTIv35E</a></p>— NBC Politics (@NBCPolitics) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/941384394580865024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 14, 2017</a>
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<p id="1chmiJ">Maybe Trump’s apparent abandonment will push Moore to accept the election results. But so far, the former chief justice has only dug in since the election, releasing a video Wednesday in which he claims the “battle rages on.” In the four-minute video, he offers a dark vision of how American democracy is under threat from “abortion, sodomy, and materialism” — among other things.</p>
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<p id="SJLqQV">“I believe the heart and soul of our country is at stake,” Moore says. “Like most Americans, I’m concerned about the future of our country, both financially and morally. After the election of Donald Trump, a little over a year ago, I saw a window of hope and opportunity that we could return to our founding principles and the Constitution of the United States.”</p>
<p id="MGSqNH">In the video, Moore said that both military and provisional ballots had not been counted. But it’s unlikely those votes will make up the difference Moore would need to beat Jones, who pulled in 49.9 percent of the vote to Moore’s 48.4 percent. </p>
<p id="r4VXMa">Moore’s refusal to concede fits with his public reputation, dating back to his tenure as chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court and his defiance of the orders <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/9/29/16379112/roy-moore-christian-theocrat-ten-commandments-judge-alabama-senate">to remove a monument of the Ten Commandments</a> from the state judicial building, which got him kicked off the bench.</p>
<p id="6A3MDj">But his obstinance is unlikely to do him any good. Alabama’s counties will file their final election results by December 22, and the state has a January 3 deadline to certify them. Alabama law triggers an automatic recount if the margin is within half a percentage point — far below the current 1.5 percent differential. </p>
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/14/16777786/white-house-roy-moore-alabama-concedeJen Kirby2017-12-14T12:00:05-05:002017-12-14T12:00:05-05:00“Trust Black women” tells Black women you didn’t trust us before
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<figcaption>Doug Jones takes a group pictures with supporters and Senator Cory Booker and Representative Terri Sewell at Alabama State University on December 9, 2017 in Montgomery, Alabama. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The default is skepticism.</p> <p id="Vlsh1j">Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore in the Alabama race for Senate on Tuesday. According to the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/election/2017/results/alabama-senate">CNN exit polls</a>, this is largely due to the massive turnout and support of Black women voters. <a href="https://www.theroot.com/youre-welcome-white-people-alabamas-black-voters-just-1821242801">At only 26 percent of the population of Alabama, Black people represented 30 percent of the electorate</a>, with 97 percent of Black women voting for Doug Jones (compared to white women’s 34 percent). This, in the face of <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/12/reports-of-voter-suppression-tactics-pour-in-from-alabama-election/">reported attempts</a> at voter suppression, is a display of fierce determination. In multiple articles and social media postings, many championed Black women’s unwavering dedication. #Blackwomen started trending on Twitter. </p>
<p id="HM0hhD"><a href="https://twitter.com/MarkRuffalo/status/940806646036561922">Mark Ruffalo announced that he has it on good authority that God is a Black woman. </a>J.K. Rowling is <a href="https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/940934286252957696">of the same opinion</a>. Others are urging their platforms to let Alabama serve as an example of the way Black women can save America. One popular account simply repeated the phrase on a loop, “Trust Black women. Trust Black women. Trust Black women.”</p>
<p id="r2ltOv">As a Black woman myself, I can’t help but read into the quiet implications of these public platitudes. I can’t help but feel that the Black woman only gets to be God this week because, to many, God is an infinite source of non-reciprocal support. God is an enigma that shows up for us no matter how many times we fail to show up in return.</p>
<p id="x4q4jk">When I see the words “trust Black women” repeated as a mantra, I fill in the rest of the sentence with “to clean up this mess” or “to do the work.” This has been the expectation of us since our arrival here. And while we ricochet from God to Mammy and back again, we never quite land at fully fleshed human being with needs. These celebrities aren’t urging for the belief of Black women on any other ordinary Tuesday, when we’re trying to save ourselves and no one else. Most days, we’re met with skepticism at every turn. </p>
<p id="V6Swwt">Black women know skepticism intimately. It’s in the questioning of our qualifications at work. <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/why-has-r-kellys-career-thrived-despite-sexual-misconduct-allegations">It’s in the public support of the abusers we’ve named</a>. It’s in gender being repeatedly sidelined in the fight for racial equality. It’s in requests for verifiable proof in the recounting of our experiences with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/oct/05/what-is-misogynoir">misogynoir</a>. Every essay, thread, or Facebook status on our mistreatment is met with: “How do you know that was racism/sexism/what you say it was?” Who believes Black women but Black women?</p>
<p id="3ehK69">Last week, I spent the day in bed, immobilized by the way America fails Black women in this respect. I had read Nina Martin and Renee Montagne’s NPR <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/12/07/568948782/black-mothers-keep-dying-after-giving-birth-shalon-irvings-story-explains-why">investigation on Black maternal mortality</a> in America, and was rocked with a collective kind of grieving. It chronicled the way the combination of a dismissal by doctors and a societal unwillingness to take seriously the way racism and sexism impact our bodies is literally costing us our lives. </p>
<p id="wRwHEK">They cite a<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2861506/"> 2010 study </a>conducted by Arline Geronimus, a professor at the University of Michigan School of Public Health, which found that Black women’s bodies are “weathering” at alarmingly high rates from chronic stress. The chromosomal markers of aging of Black women in their 40s and 50s appeared an average of seven-and-a-half years older than white women the same age. As the study notes, Black women are 243 percent more likely to die in childbirth than white women. </p>
<p id="GIeo2t">But public calls to trust Black women are scarce when it’s about our wellbeing, the quality of our lives, the conditions under which we navigate the world. The issue in America is not that Black women aren’t entrusted with care-taking and saving others. The issue is that no one trusts Black women when we say that we need support the most. When it’s time to pay dues to the church, who’s calling Black women God? Is the world listening to Black women when we’re talking about ordinary struggles, about saving ourselves and not the rest of the world?</p>
<p id="DNiwi4">When I saw CNN’s exit polls, I didn’t see Black women donning capes and rushing to the polls to save the state of Alabama from Roy Moore. I saw Black women showing up for themselves, because they knew nobody else was voting with them in mind. I saw them choosing the candidate who will best advocate for their interest in their own civil rights, their right to their own bodily autonomy. I saw them showing up to make sure they weren’t represented by somebody with a <a href="https://splinternews.com/roy-moore-spokesman-reminds-us-that-moore-is-also-a-big-1821233831">history of bigotry and alleged pedophilia</a>.</p>
<p id="yNADQN">This isn’t to say that we don’t owe Black women a debt of gratitude. But it’s okay for Black women to look out for themselves without carrying the rest of society on their backs and at the forefront of their minds. We can praise Black women without turning them into caretaker caricatures. If white celebrities, activists, and ordinary people want to properly thank the Black women who elected Doug Jones, it requires that they reframe their PSAs. They’ve got to decenter the saving of themselves, and let go of the notion that clinging to Black women’s ankles is the proper way to move into a better America. </p>
<p id="UaRvEf">The basic task of listening to and trusting Black women must be applied in ordinary life on a small and large scale — in the doctor’s office, on the street, and in the comment section. It must extend into amplifying, lifting up, and supporting us. Black women deserve fiscal, emotional, and systemic support. </p>
<p id="sozIpH">We deserve more bodies at protests in our honor. We deserve advocates for fair compensation for our work. We deserve to be backed up and fought for, not just trusted, not just believed. Beyond praising Black women for the way they’ve served Alabama (and America at large), people must begin to ask themselves how they can best return the favor, and then start doing it. </p>
<p id="lmMCR7">Black women in Alabama didn’t just talk about Doug Jones, they showed up for him in their local voting booths. It’s about time we show up for them, too. </p>
<p id="YIqqhV"><em>Dominique Matti is an essayist, editor, and cool mom based in Philadelphia. </em></p>
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https://www.vox.com/first-person/2017/12/14/16776564/trust-black-women-doug-jones-roy-mooreDominique Matti2017-12-14T10:40:01-05:002017-12-14T10:40:01-05:00What Roy Moore’s loss can tell us about American evangelicals’ future
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<img alt="Alabama GOP Senate Candidate Roy Moore Holds Election Night Party" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YM6UITlxZN8DO2FDeJRi-nWifvk=/0x0:3000x2250/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/57973041/891286512.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Roy Moore lost in Alabama this week. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Moore’s defeat highlighted the changing face of evangelical America along racial and age lines.</p> <p id="qheqsn">Alabama — a state that Donald Trump won by almost 28 percentage points — elected a Democratic senator in Tuesday’s special election, rejecting Trump’s preferred candidate, a Christian theocrat who was, in recent weeks, accused of <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/13/16643422/roy-moore-republican-party">sexual misconduct with numerous teenage girls</a> decades ago. Many news outlets have suggested that that Alabama Christians have had, well, a “come to Jesus moment”; Christianity Today’s headline<em>,</em> for example, read <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiKt_6y_ofYAhVoluAKHfGfDp8QqOcBCCkwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.christianitytoday.com%2Fnews%2F2017%2Fdecember%2Froy-moore-loss-alabama-evangelicals-senate-election-mohler.html&usg=AOvVaw2F9v3UM5EFF5tAGgVzjeCC">"Roy Moore Was ‘a Bridge Too Far’ for Alabama Evangelicals."</a></p>
<p id="BNjkOI">But preliminary exit poll results don’t necessarily bear that out. White Christians who identified as “evangelical” or “born again” (a term common in the evangelical community) made up 44 percent of Alabama voters, and a full <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.97b9d7b634b7">80 percent</a> voted for Moore (overall, 68 percent of white voters chose Moore). This was unsurprising, given that nearly all — 94 percent — of Moore voters reported not believing the allegations against him. For them, Moore’s alleged misdeeds were the product of a biased liberal media smear campaign and nothing more.</p>
<p id="S05tiv">Instead, Jones’s victory came down to a number of other factors, one being the high turnout of black voters (they composed about 30 percent of Alabama voters, <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/12/13/16772012/alabama-election-black-women">exceeding turnout in previous elections</a>, according to early data), who voted overwhelmingly — 96 percent — for Jones. The Democrat also won over nearly two-thirds of voters ages 18 to 44, while 51 percent of 45- to 65-year-olds and 59 percent of those 65 and older voted for Moore. In other words, the election was decided more by the demographics of voter turnout than, say, white evangelicals being swayed by accusations of Moore’s alleged sexual misconduct. </p>
<p id="vqj0Bi">Of course, some of Jones’s victory is likely due to the white evangelical voters who stayed home, or to the <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/alabama-senate-race-write-votes-746456">23,000 write-in votes for other candidates </a>— a number that exceeded Jones’s margin of victory. But by and large, white evangelicals who voted still voted for Moore.</p>
<p id="GOkUB9">But does that mean that Moore’s election doesn’t tell us anything new about evangelicals? Far from it. The very demographic breakdown that cost Moore the vote in an intensely conservative, evangelical-heavy state like Alabama is the same breakdown that is fracturing evangelical America as we know it. An evangelical church that is more ethnically diverse than it once was, that is struggling to maintain its connection with younger, often more socially liberal members, is a church that must change or die. Moore’s loss is proof of that.</p>
<h3 id="pSSBv2">The Alabama election can tell us something about the changing face of evangelicalism</h3>
<p id="QECE48">Robert P. Jones, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) and author of <em>The End of White Christian America,</em> has long argued that “white Christian America,” as a cultural institution, is in decline. Among mainline Protestants — evangelicals’ often more socially liberal counterparts — the decline is most striking: According to <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/7/18/15958214/age-of-white-christian-america-over">PRRI studies</a>, white mainline Protestants made up 24 percent of the population in 1988, whereas by 2012 they made up just 14 percent. </p>
<p id="bgCg2w">But white evangelicals, too, have found their demographic dominance waning. Half of all new Southern Baptist churches — to name just one prominent evangelical umbrella group — are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2017/03/13/could-southern-baptist-leader-russell-moore-lose-his-job-churches-threaten-funding-after-months-of-trump-controversy/?utm_term=.80dcb2a6b4b7">primarily nonwhite</a>. Likewise, while seven in 10 seniors identify as white Christians, that demographic flips to just three in 10 for young adults. Demographic shifting, in other words, means that while white evangelicals might still vote for candidates like Moore, there will be fewer and fewer of them to vote. </p>
<p id="e1ttVV">In an interview with Vox on Wednesday, Jones cautioned against seeing Moore’s loss as justification of the idea that there’s been “a pullback among evangelicals.” Rather, voting patterns among white evangelicals "confirms the trajectory white evangelicals were on when they elected Trump.”</p>
<p id="5eH3rn">The takeaway from Moore’s loss, Jones says, is not that there’s a shift in evangelicals’ attitudes, but that the wider evangelical umbrella — comprising black, Latino, and white evangelicals — is increasingly fragmented. After all, he points out, Alabama is a “unique” state, in which at least 80 percent of Democrats and Republicans alike identify as Christian. “So what mattered really was <em>which</em> Christians came to the polls, not <em>whether</em> they would.” </p>
<p id="Br8aRI">He is critical of the Moore campaign’s narrative that "here is candidate Moore standing up for God and Christian principles against the other candidate who doesn’t.” Doug Jones is in fact a Methodist — a branch of mainline Protestantism. He was, in other words, propelled to victory by Christians, including many evangelicals. Just not white ones. </p>
<p id="VO7EyF">“What we have on display is this very vivid picture of how far apart black and white Christians are,” Robert Jones said. And he doesn’t see that changing anytime soon. Before Trump’s election, he says, the evangelical community had been very focused on racial reconciliation, with major evangelical leaders — like the Southern Baptist Convention’s Russell Moore — <a href="https://www.vox.com/2017/6/14/15799134/southern-baptist-condemnation-alt-right-russell-moore-evangelicals">performing outreach across color lines</a>. But, Jones said, "Trump has been a polarizing force between white and black Christians,” just like among white and black Americans in general. He added, “You see it in the data. You see it among leaders. And those divisions promise to get worse.”</p>
<p id="DAsESd">He’s likewise less than optimistic about the possibility that younger evangelicals — who are more socially liberal than their older counterparts — will help bridge that gap. Rather, he says, white evangelical churches “are losing their younger members. If their younger members were to stay in the fold, they would play a role in shifting the view of the whole,” but all too often, younger evangelicals choose to leave their churches — if not religion itself — behind. “What we would expect of a normal generational effect [of young people’s influence] has been muted." </p>
<p id="RtD1qH">White, older evangelical voters may keep voting for Moore — or, at least, those with similar values and ideals. Nothing may change their minds. But the numbers are against them — especially if younger white evangelicals keep emptying the pews.</p>
https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/12/14/16773892/roy-moore-loss-evangelicalsTara Isabella Burton2017-12-13T16:30:02-05:002017-12-13T16:30:02-05:00The Alabama election shows exactly why feminism in 2018 can’t just be about white women
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<img alt="Supporters of Doug Jones celebrate his victory over Roy Moore on December 12" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/p5VW5kKDYNYywIAqhzURYye7SE0=/0x0:5568x4176/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/57971531/GettyImages_891269552.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Supporters of Doug Jones celebrate his victory over Roy Moore on December 12. | <a href="http://www.gettyimages.com/search/photographer?family=editorial&photographer=Bill+Clark">Bill Clark</a>/Contributor/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Black women voted overwhelmingly against Roy Moore. Feminism has to recognize their leadership.</p> <p id="2NnoO0">To some, the results of Tuesday night’s Alabama special election might look like a victory for #MeToo. </p>
<p id="EBGLI1">Roy Moore, a man accused of sexually pursuing, abusing, or assaulting multiple teenage girls, was defeated by Doug Jones in an unexpected upset, sending an Alabama Democrat to the Senate for the first time in <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/13/16770668/doug-jones-roy-moore-alabama-senate">25 years</a>. </p>
<p id="UXr8nt">But the lessons of Tuesday night are more complicated than that. According to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.c9e27660ebb2">exit polls</a>, 63 percent of white women voted for Moore — a reminder of last year’s presidential election, when <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/01/us/politics/white-women-helped-elect-donald-trump.html">53 percent</a> of white female voters cast their ballots for a man caught on tape talking about grabbing women “by the pussy.” </p>
<p id="gFHAmS">The Alabama special election demonstrated, once again, that many white women are quite willing to vote for a man accused of sexual assault, and that the idea of women as a unified voting bloc is sorely misguided. It also showed that the future of feminist politics in 2018 lies in recognizing the work of women of color, who have been leaders across feminist issues for a long time, often with little recognition from white Americans.</p>
<h3 id="HKHkXM">Sexual misconduct allegations aren’t the only reason Moore lost</h3>
<p id="wpl9x2">Despite the accusations against him, made public at a time when women all over the country are speaking out against sexual harassment and assault, Roy Moore managed to get 41 percent of women’s votes across races. But, according to preliminary exit polls, black voters<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/despite-the-obstacles-black-voters-make-a-statement-in-alabama/548237/"> turned out in large numbers</a> and voted overwhelmingly against him. <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/12/13/16772012/alabama-election-black-women">Ninety-eight percent of black women</a> voted for Doug Jones; 93 percent of black men did the same. As Vann R. Newkirk II put it in <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/despite-the-obstacles-black-voters-make-a-statement-in-alabama/548237/">the Atlantic</a>, “black voters were informed and mobilized to go vote, and did so even in the face of significant barriers.” <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/can-doug-jones-get-enough-black-voters-to-win/547574/">Voter ID laws and DMV closures</a> in the state appeared to disproportionately affect black residents, and civil rights groups and voters <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/12/reports-of-voter-suppression-tactics-pour-in-from-alabama-election/#">raised concerns</a> about voter suppression on Election Day. </p>
<p id="bH8nN2">Nor did Moore necessarily lose the election because of women’s reports of sexual misconduct. Only <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.673f0b66c97d">7 percent</a> of voters said those reports were the single most important factor in their decision, along with 34 percent who said they were one of several important factors.</p>
<p id="tZzbaI">Though women’s reports of Moore’s behavior certainly should have disqualified him from public office — the man was, after all, reportedly <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/locals-were-troubled-by-roy-moores-interactions-with-teen-girls-at-the-gadsden-mall">banned from a mall</a> for bothering teenage girls — he had shown himself to be unfit for that office long before the sexual abuse allegations came to light. As chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, he was <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/09/30/496089488/alabamas-chief-justice-roy-moore-loses-case-over-same-sex-marriage-stance">relieved of his duties</a> twice for failing to follow the law: once for refusing to remove a monument bearing the Ten Commandments from the state Supreme Court building and once for telling Alabama judges not to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples, in violation of the Supreme Court’s decision. He has described “homosexual conduct” as “an inherent evil against which children must be protected,” as <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/11/re_examining_roy_moore_s_fixation_on_protecting_children_from_gay_people.html">Mark Joseph Stern notes at Slate</a>. In a 2006 op-ed titled “Muslim Ellison should not sit in Congress,” he compared the <a href="https://qz.com/1088001/roy-moore-likely-to-become-the-next-senator-from-alabama-has-a-history-of-racism/">Quran to <em>Mein Kampf</em></a>. </p>
<p id="RE27n1">On the campaign trail, he continued to show voters exactly who he was. At a September campaign rally, he <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/12/11/16761348/roy-moore-racism-sexism">opined</a> that America was great “when families were united — even though we had slavery.” Given that slave holders often separated families and sexually assaulted enslaved people, it seemed clear which families Moore was prioritizing. </p>
<p id="exxo1d">Tuesday night’s vote was a victory for harassment and assault survivors, certainly. It was also a victory for anyone who cares about the civil rights of LGBTQ, Muslim, and black Americans. One of the lessons of this election is that these issues are inseparable from the fight for women’s rights and women’s safety. It’s not a new lesson, especially for LGBTQ women and women of color, but it will be important for all feminists to remember in the months ahead. </p>
<p id="b0qlFq">The second important lesson — also far from new — is that white women cannot necessarily be relied upon to reject candidates accused of sexual misconduct. That was clear after the election of President Donald Trump, and it’s even clearer now. That doesn’t mean it should fall on black women to “save” America from predatory men, as <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/12/13/16772012/alabama-election-black-women">Vox’s P.R. Lockhart</a> has noted. </p>
<p id="9j2O0L">“In a state where a disproportionate level of<strong> </strong>African Americans <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/black-women-in-the-rural-south-are-still-sick-and-tired-of-being-sick-and-tired/">face</a> rampant poverty, poor education systems, and unequal access to healthcare, the votes of black women weren’t about some altruistic mission to save America from itself,” Lockhart wrote. “Their votes were a very real attempt to make a change <a href="https://www.theroot.com/black-women-in-alabama-saved-themselves-last-night-1821254816">that would help themselves</a> and their families.”</p>
<p id="Ai7zg5">Tuesday night’s election was a reminder that feminism as a movement has to acknowledge the longstanding leadership of women of color on sexual assault prevention, as on a variety of issues. Tarana Burke was living in Alabama a decade ago when she decided to start the Me Too campaign to help survivors of sexual violence, she told me in October, and she is one of many women of color whose work has at times been forgotten or ignored by white feminists. </p>
<h3 id="uKgJAX">Feminism can win elections — but not if it only focuses on white women and their concerns</h3>
<p id="NdpKsM">Today’s feminist movement cannot ignore women of color — not because women of color are needed to support causes championed by white women, but because women of color have often been the ones on the front lines, championing feminist causes when white women won’t. Black women are the ones who voted overwhelmingly to defeat Roy Moore. They also voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton in 2016, with <a href="https://qz.com/833003/election-2016-all-women-voted-overwhelmingly-for-clinton-except-the-white-ones/">just 3 percent</a> casting a vote for Trump.</p>
<p id="RYiWlR">Women of color are already leading activism on issues ranging from <a href="http://sistersong.net/reproductive-justice/">reproductive justice</a> to pay equality, but they haven’t always been recognized as leaders by white feminists or mainstream feminist groups. In a recent example, <a href="http://www.ebony.com/news-views/black-woman-me-too-movement-tarana-burke-alyssa-milano#axzz51AGM83IT">Zahara Hill noted at Ebony</a> that initial coverage of the #MeToo hashtag failed to credit Burke, and that in the social media conversation around the hashtag, “Black women were quickly isolated from the dialogue before we could familiarize ourselves with it.” Exclusions like that can’t happen if feminism is to be relevant as a political force in 2018.</p>
<p id="N84Xsq">One hopeful sign was the Women’s Convention in October. The Women’s March on Washington in January, first called the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/it-started-with-a-grandmother-in-hawaii-now-the-womens-march-on-washington-is-poised-to-be-the-biggest-inauguration-demonstration/2017/01/03/8af61686-c6e2-11e6-bf4b-2c064d32a4bf_story.html?utm_term=.76905cf1f7b4">Million Woman March</a>, had been criticized for using the language of black civil rights activists for an event initially conceived largely by white women. “Once again, the labors of Black folks (in this case, the 1995 Million Man March and the 1997 Million Woman March organized by Minister Louis Farrakhan and the Nation of Islam) were being co-opted and erased by clueless White ones,” <a href="https://www.colorlines.com/articles/why-im-skipping-womens-march-washington-opinion">Jamilah Lemieux wrote at ColorLines</a> in January. “And just what would this ‘million’ women be coming together to march about—their mothers, sisters, homegirls and friends who elected Trump in the first place?”</p>
<p id="nfcAoG">The organizers of the Women’s Convention — Tamika Mallory, Carmen Perez, Linda Sarsour, Bob Bland, and more — worked hard to highlight the work of leaders of color at the October gathering, and called on white attendees repeatedly to support people of color, rather than only demanding their support. A panel called <a href="http://www.cosmopolitan.com/politics/a13113728/womens-convention-confronting-white-womanhood-panel/">“Confronting White Womanhood,”</a> designed to help white women recognize their own roles in perpetuating racism, was so popular it was ultimately held twice. In a closing panel, <a href="http://www.blackenterprise.com/thousands-visit-detroit-for-the-womens-convention-inspired-to-create-change/">political commentator Angela Rye</a> advised the crowd to support black-owned businesses, put their money in black-owned banks, and donate to black-run charities. </p>
<p id="DSVcte">Not all feminists are women, and not every woman identifies as a feminist, even if she supports some of the goals that feminists fight for. Still, feminism has emerged as a powerful political force in the wake of the Women’s March, convention, and the elections this November, in which <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/8/16622884/women-minorities-lgbtq-candidates-made-history">Danica Roem</a> beat the author of a discriminatory “bathroom bill” to become the first transgender woman in the Virginia House of Delegates, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/8/16623532/ashley-bennett-john-carman-new-jersey-2017-election">Ashley Bennett</a> won a seat on the Atlantic County Board of Chosen Freeholders, beating out a man who had made a sexist joke about Women’s Marchers cooking dinner. </p>
<p id="pbxyN0">The feminism that is winning elections, however, is one that encompasses more than the concerns of white women, and more than issues traditionally thought of as “women’s issues.” It’s one that includes criminal justice reform and resistance to mass incarceration, a living wage for domestic workers and protections for immigrants, LGBTQ equality and voting rights for all. </p>
<p id="Q0YcK9">Candidates who can speak to those issues in 2018 and beyond are likely to energize a powerful base of voters of color, LGBTQ voters, and their allies. Candidates who try to preach feminism while appealing only to white voters, meanwhile, are likely to fail.</p>
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/13/16772760/roy-moore-alabama-election-doug-jones-feminismAnna North2017-12-13T16:00:02-05:002017-12-13T16:00:02-05:00What Doug Jones’s victory means for the GOP tax bill
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<figcaption>Wrench! | Altan Gocher/Barcroft Media via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Officially, nothing. But Republicans have stumbled before.</p> <p id="2HysHV">The most important policy question of the day: What does Doug Jones's underdog win Tuesday night mean for the GOP tax overhaul drive? </p>
<p id="4P7T6T">Officially, the answer is nothing. Party leaders believe they can draft a bill by Friday and pass it on Monday, at which point they'll still have 52 Senate votes and thus room to spare even with Bob Corker defecting. </p>
<p id="RaCett">But can they really get it done on that schedule? They've made promises to Susan Collins on health care and Jeff Flake on immigration that House Republicans seem disinclined to keep.</p>
<p id="tYAv5o">John McCain might develop some mavericky process objections to slamming a bill through with the vote of a lame-duck senator who the voters of Alabama rejected in a primary. Will House Republicans from California develop second thoughts about walking the plank on a SALT provision that's terrible for their constituents after watching the party lose in Alabama?</p>
<p id="0BWzwm">I'm not a fortune teller, but it's sure not obvious to me. </p>
<p id="GOs1un">Here's <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/12/16761514/doug-jones-win-tax-reform">Dylan Scott reporting from Capitol Hill</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p id="Spyls1">In the past few days, House Speaker Paul Ryan has thrown cold water on those bills [<em>Matt</em>: i.e., the ones Collins got Senate leaders to promise to pass to stabilize health insurance markets] and the White House started to back away from its commitment. House Republicans have warned that there aren’t the votes in the lower chamber to pass the bills Collins supports.</p>
<p id="3RlI4m">Collins has in turn started to leave herself room to oppose the final tax plan that House and Senate negotiators are working on, if her demands are not met.</p>
<p id="JnH5pZ">This path to failure has become clear: Jones wins in Alabama on Tuesday, the tax negotiations drag on long enough for him to be seated, and Collins flips to a “no” vote because her extracted concessions on health care fall through.</p>
</blockquote>
<p id="RYnfXs">For my part, I think it's noteworthy how much Jones talked about CHIP. Obviously it'd be silly to say that CHIP was the main issue in this race. But Jones did want to inject some policy substantive into his pitch, and the ground he chose to pick that fight on was CHIP — and it was an issue that succeeded at inspiring the base to come out and fight without being off-putting to crossover voters.</p>
<p id="TWJQbF">Just a reminder that Republicans in Washington are putting themselves out on some dangerous policy limbs.</p>
<p id="wSIKQj"><em>This is an abbreviated web version of The Weeds newsletter, a limited-run policy newsletter from Vox’s Matt Yglesias. Sign up to </em><a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/d/74B0106B6B956790"><em><strong>get the full Weeds newsletter in your inbox</strong></em></a><em>, plus more charts, tweets, and email-only content. </em></p>
https://www.vox.com/2017/12/13/16773284/doug-jones-tax-reform-the-weedsMatthew Yglesias2017-12-13T14:05:01-05:002017-12-13T14:05:01-05:00After Doug Jones’s win, here's what Democrats need to do to retake the Senate in 2018
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EXrUljK5eBOp8PuwsK7YBHFBnBE=/0x0:5320x3990/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/57969747/GettyImages_866346498.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Getty</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If they hold all their own seats (which won’t be easy), they need to pick up two more.</p> <p id="BVJ9aQ">Just a few months ago, practically no one would have predicted that Democrats would pick up a US Senate seat in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2017/12/12/16766516/alabama-senate-election-2017-roy-moore-doug-jones">Alabama special election</a>. But they did with <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/12/16764846/alabama-special-election-results-roy-moore-doug-jones">Doug Jones’s victory</a> Tuesday — and their chances for retaking the chamber next year <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/12/16766892/alabama-senate-election-2017-doug-jones-wins">have dramatically improved</a>.</p>
<p id="TVradl">It’s long been very difficult to plot a plausible path to a Democratic Senate takeover in 2018, since the party faces such a disadvantage in the map. Democrats have needed to gain, on net, three seats. Assuming they defend all 26 of their own that are up (no easy task), there are then two Republican-held seats — Nevada and Arizona — that have seemed seriously in play. </p>
<p id="rd2cBG">But the other six Republican seats up next year have long seemed like long shots — meaning it was difficult to envision where Democrats could pick up that elusive third GOP-controlled seat. Not anymore, though — as former Obama administration staffer Matthew Miller tweeted after Jones won, the magic number for the party is now down to two:</p>
<div id="JxF1Mv">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Six months ago, I asked the smartest Dem Senate strategist where the three seats to win the majority back were: "Nevada, Arizona, and an act of God." Got the hardest one first.</p>— Matthew Miller (@matthewamiller) <a href="https://twitter.com/matthewamiller/status/940786798879535106?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2017</a>
</blockquote>
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<p id="FsUuVc">The Alabama result also serves as a reminder that seemingly uncompetitive races can, under certain circumstances, tighten up. A divisive GOP primary ended in the controversial Moore defeating the party establishment’s preferred candidate. The race <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html">was closer than expected</a> even before Moore was accused of sexually assaulting two teenagers last month; after it, Jones got enough of a boost to win.</p>
<p id="T3CSAn">So it’s a good time to review the entire lineup of Republican Senate seats on the ballot — or that could plausibly be on the ballot — in 2018. We can think of them as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li id="Ov0y08">The top two targets: Nevada and Arizona</li>
<li id="WCkzyb">Two tougher targets: Texas and Tennessee</li>
<li id="vYx4lL">The possibility that John McCain’s seat in Arizona will also open up</li>
<li id="lNLule">The rest: Wyoming, Nebraska, Utah, and Mississippi (and any other potential special elections)</li>
</ul>
<p id="vaffoG">I’m going to focus on these GOP-held seats, but also just keep in mind that Democrats would also have to play an enormous amount of defense in 2018. Of the 26 of their own seats on the ballot, 10 will be in states Trump won, and five of those will be in states he won overwhelmingly. And for each of their incumbents who does lose, the number of GOP-held seats Democrats would have to win to retake control would go up by one.</p>
<h3 id="HZ83Bw">The top two targets: Nevada and Arizona</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4fj4BykXbXLnVxQ_X8UIRpbXRCY=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9863743/GettyImages_464317366.jpg">
<cite>Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Getty</cite>
<figcaption>Dean Heller, the most vulnerable GOP incumbent, and Jeff Flake, who’s retiring.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="Yio6ED">Dean Heller of Nevada has long been the most endangered Republican Senate incumbent, since his is the only GOP-held seat up in a state Trump lost (Hillary Clinton won it by 2.5 points). But things have only gotten worse for him over the course of this year. First, he infuriated conservatives by trying to negotiate changes to the Obamacare repeal bill, and then he infuriated liberals by utterly caving on the issue after <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/30/us/politics/heller-trump-health-care-adelson-wynn.html">reportedly getting</a> an earful from billionaire donors. More recently, he <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/12/05/hellers_tax_reform_push_may_be_key_to_his_2018_chances.html">bragged</a> that he “helped write” the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax-poll-idUSKBN1E52HZ?utm_source=34553&utm_medium=partner">deeply unpopular GOP tax bill</a>.</p>
<p id="Wrzmp9">In the general election, Heller will likely face Rep. Jacky Rosen, a Democrat who was first elected to the House of Representatives just last year, but who won the nod of the Democratic establishment in this race. But first he has to get past a primary challenge from Danny Tarkanian, who’s <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/10/22/steve-bannon-return-blurs-line-between-breitbart-news-and-his-political-operation/777841001/">said he’s won the backing</a> of party gadfly Steve Bannon. And though polling of the primary has been sparse so far, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_republican_primary-6234.html">Tarkanian has led</a> in some of the ones we’ve seen — signaling a tough road ahead for Heller.</p>
<p id="YCwrXl">The second obvious target for Democrats is the Arizona seat currently held by Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), who is retiring. Republican leaders hope that Rep. Martha McSally, a retired Air Force colonel, will win the nomination, but she’d face an ugly primary fight against former state Sen. Kelli Ward. Ward is a favorite of <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/27/politics/arizona-senate-martha-mcsally/index.html">some populist conservatives in the state</a> (<a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/10/17/steve-bannon-endorseare-donald-trump-supporters-settling-kelli-ward-their-pick-against-sen-jeff-flak/769872001/">as well as Bannon</a>), but is viewed by the establishment as a fringe figure who could lose big. Democratic leaders, meanwhile, successfully convinced their preferred candidate — Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) — to run, and she’s the favorite to win the nomination.</p>
<p id="dCzRmN">To reiterate: If Democrats manage to hold all of their own seats (something that, again, will be quite difficult!), and win just these two GOP-held seats, they’ll end up with a 51-49 Senate majority in 2019.</p>
<h3 id="rQj47W">Two tougher targets: Texas and Tennessee</h3>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_LJ1Lv240r9vvMqXZDgzlq194xo=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9863769/GettyImages_578138748.jpg">
<cite>Tasos Katopodis/WireImage/Getty</cite>
<figcaption>Ted Cruz</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="SMgJaw">Moving on to Republican seats that are much more of a reach for Democrats — but maybe not <em>completely</em> safe for the GOP — there’s Ted Cruz’s seat in Texas, and the seat of retiring Sen. Bob Corker in Tennessee.</p>
<p id="zRdotp">For years, Democrats have been dreaming of making serious gains in Texas — and for years, they’ve failed to do so, despite the growth in the state’s Hispanic population. In 2016, though, Donald Trump only won the state by 9 points, the worst performance for a GOP presidential nominee there in decades. And the senator up for reelection in 2018 is Ted Cruz, a controversial figure with many enemies, who <a href="https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/ted-cruz-job-approval-june-2017">currently has a weak approval rating</a>.</p>
<p id="fllIQE">This time around, Democrats have a charismatic and energetic challenger for Cruz in Rep. Beto O’Rourke (a former punk rocker who my colleague Jeff Stein <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/9/16375182/beto-orourke-ted-cruz-senate">interviewed earlier this year</a>). O’Rourke very definitely an underdog — Texas is a conservative state, it’s an expensive state to compete in, Cruz is a <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2017/10/24/cruz-orourke/">formidable fundraiser</a>, and O’Rourke is <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2017/10/19/uttt-poll-texas-voters-familiar-cruz-not-democratic-rival-orourke/">still little-known</a>. Still, if the fired-up Democratic enthusiasm we’ve seen this year holds up, this race might end up being closer than many expect.</p>
<p id="XMmyHK">Next, there is the Tennessee seat currently held by Sen. Bob Corker (R), who is retiring. Donald Trump won Tennessee by a whopping 26 points, so this race is definitely a stretch for Democrats. But former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) has decided to jump into the race — and though he hasn’t run for office since 2006 and could be a bit rusty, he has won statewide before. The likely GOP nominee is Rep. Marsha Blackburn, a staunch conservative.</p>
<h3 id="fBL2NB">Then, John McCain is not in good health</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0mhbav7GjpSkNU9ctWaLBs2kVVY=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9864079/GettyImages_831518952.jpg">
<cite>Jennifer Stewart/Getty</cite>
</figure>
<p id="Iy3LYo">It may be impolite to discuss it, but Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has brain cancer and, <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2017/09/24/sen-john-mccain-doctors-gave-me-poor-prognosis-brain-cancer-fight-60-minutes/698677001/">he says</a>, a “poor prognosis.” If McCain should pass away or decide to step down in the coming months, his seat would be temporarily filled by an appointee from Arizona’s Republican governor, and a special election to fill the remaining four years of McCain’s term would be scheduled at the same time as the 2018 midterms.</p>
<p id="QbpNCt">If this were to happen, Arizona would suddenly have both of its US Senate seats on the ballot next year — giving Democrats another pickup opportunity in a state Trump won by just 3.5 points. </p>
<p id="WoD4Yt">Some of the possible Democratic candidates in that scenario would likely be people who considered running for Flake’s seat but ended up declining — like Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton or former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (both of whom are currently running for congressional seats), or State Rep. Randall Friese (a trauma surgeon who treated former Rep. Gabby Giffords after her shooting).</p>
<p id="8UxhWc">As for Republicans, depending on the timing of the vacancy, likely primary rivals Kelli Ward and Martha McSally could end up running in different races after all. Arizona has several other ambitious Republican members of Congress and state politicians too. For now, though, McCain remains in the Senate and has expressed no plans to step down.</p>
<h3 id="uWqIAp">The rest</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qGpd9jpMv-ihJ0n6MpLalWj_wjc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9864067/GettyImages_112846397.jpg">
<cite>Rafael Suanes/MCT/MCT via Getty</cite>
<figcaption>Orrin Hatch</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="amKC0A">The other remaining GOP-held Senate seats are in such deeply conservative states that few would give Democrats more than an infinitesimal chance of winning any of them. Still, Doug Jones did just pull off his longest-of-shots upset, so let’s run through the remaining possibilities on the table:</p>
<ul>
<li id="7uYukV">
<strong>Utah</strong>: There’s some intrigue around this seat, as 83-year-old Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) has been viewed as likely to retire but hasn’t confirmed his plans to do so just yet. If he does retire, former presidential candidate Mitt Romney will likely run for the GOP nomination. In either case, Salt Lake County Council member <a href="https://wilsonforsenate.com/">Jenny Wilson</a> is running for the Democratic nod.</li>
<li id="ymjVcj">
<strong>Wyoming</strong>: Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), who’s close to Mitch McConnell and serves on the GOP Senate leadership team, is running again. Bannon and his allies have mused about recruiting a wealthy conservative — like investor Foster Friess or Blackwater founder Erik Prince — to challenge him in the primary. For Democrats, Jackson Hole businessman <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/wyoming/articles/2017-12-08/democrat-gary-trauner-announces-bid-for-wyoming-us-senate">Gary Trauner</a> announced last week that he’ll run.</li>
<li id="YL40lr">
<strong>Nebraska</strong>: Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) will be up for reelection. A conservative in a conservative state, Fischer has nevertheless had a difficult time adapting to the age of Trump — she called on him to leave the race last October after the <em>Access Hollywood </em>“grab ’em by the pussy” tape was released, but then <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/10/13/deb-fischer-a-profile-in-cowardice/?utm_term=.0c87a99deeb8">said a few days later</a> that she’d vote for him anyway. Businesswoman and Lincoln City Council member <a href="http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/jane-raybould-a-democrat-from-lincoln-will-challenge-u-s/article_50b260ae-aa54-50a5-a587-a6dc6ab24306.html">Jane Raybould</a> is running for the Democratic nomination there.</li>
<li id="AXmrqO">
<strong>Mississippi</strong>: The genial, leadership-aligned Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) might face a conservative primary challenge from <a href="http://www.clarionledger.com/story/opinion/columnists/2017/12/13/roy-moore-mississippi-fallout-chris-mcdaniel-cant-catch-break/948061001/">Chris McDaniel</a> (who nearly won a contentious Senate primary in the state in 2014). It’s not yet clear who the strongest Democratic candidate would be here.</li>
<li id="QjBjf6">
<strong>Another special</strong>: Finally, it’s of course possible that another unexpected special election could be added to the lineup. For instance, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) has been in poor health, and there have been reports that President Trump might nominate Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) to head the CIA. </li>
</ul>
<p id="IjkrnI">Both Mississippi and Arkansas are such conservative states, as are the others mentioned here. But again ... Doug Jones did win.</p>
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/13/16770972/doug-jones-senate-2018-electionsAndrew Prokop2017-12-13T14:00:04-05:002017-12-13T14:00:04-05:00Obamacare repeal died in Birmingham
<figure>
<img alt="Democratic Senate Candidate Doug Jones Votes In Alabama Special Election" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EU5egD14iVsWpPULSIcS2r48KJs=/0x0:3000x2250/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/57969687/890909668.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="myrXAp"><em>This is the web version of VoxCare, a daily newsletter from Vox on the latest twists and turns in America’s health care debate. Like what you’re reading? Sign up to </em><a href="http://www.vox.com/newsletters"><em><strong>get VoxCare in your inbox here</strong></em></a><em>.</em></p>
<p id="IvUvGw">Obamacare repeal might really, actually, truly be dead.</p>
<p id="m0Aqf4">Doug Jones, a Democrat, will soon be Alabama's junior senator. The Republican Senate majority will shrink from 52 to 51. </p>
<p id="q9ZWPe">Republicans have sworn to revisit Obamacare repeal next year, after they pass their tax bill. But Jones's victory may have made it impossible for the GOP to succeed where it has previously failed. </p>
<p id="OUiOwi">Even with 52 Republican senators, the party had yet to find a plan that could win 50 votes. Now the margin for error is even slimmer. </p>
<p id="ANeM4e">I surveyed a handful of health care lobbyists well-attuned to congressional Republicans on Tuesday night, once Jones had shocked the political world: Is Obamacare repeal dead?</p>
<p id="L2A43p">A couple flatly said "yes." One proffered that they still might try. But the odds seem to be fading, and fast.</p>
<p id="ntqJZ0">Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) seems to be a "no" on any major Obamacare repeal plan. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has also opposed every bill put forward so far. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has shown he's willing to buck his party on health care too. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has refused to back any of the substantial repeal-and-replace bills, including Graham-Cassidy, which was the top candidate to be revived if Republicans took up the issue again.</p>
<p id="2P8E0A">Now you're subtracting Sen. Luther Strange (R-AL), a reliable vote for Republican leaders, and adding Doug Jones, who <a href="http://www.al.com/news/huntsville/index.ssf/2017/11/doug_jones_on_obamacare_repeal.html"><strong>has said</strong></a> that while the Affordable Care Act could still be improved, "repeal and replace" is just a political slogan that's "not workable."</p>
<p id="Wv1veu">Then there is one other thing to consider. Republicans are hoping to pass their tax overhaul in a matter of days.</p>
<p id="I0IWg6">In that bill, they are planning to repeal Obamacare's individual mandate, which will lead to an estimated 13 million fewer people having insurance and higher premiums, according to the CBO.</p>
<p id="X4doNM">But the mandate is also by far the least popular part of Obamacare, the foundation of much of the GOP's opposition to the law. Might they now be content to let repeal go, once they nix the mandate, while leaving the more popular pieces of the law in place?</p>
<p id="vdWkoV">One lobbyist compared it to Democrats passing Obamacare in 2010. They knew it was unpopular at the time. But they had committed to passing it. It was a "suicide pact" of sorts. Republicans face a similar choice now.</p>
<p id="FaH5jJ">"Looking at the polls and their majorities, do they decide to go after (fill in the blank with the ACA, Medicare, Medicaid, or all of the above) because they know they may never get another chance?" this person said. "It makes no sense, but when does a suicide pact make sense?"</p>
<p id="dl9NFB">But with the stunning Democratic win in Alabama yesterday, the math might simply be insurmountable. We'll be watching closely, of course, but at long last, Obamacare repeal might really be finished.</p>
<aside id="g1bMyp"><div data-anthem-component="newsletter" data-anthem-component-data='{"slug":"vox_care"}'></div></aside><h3 id="u5XRXO">Chart of the Day</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="healthcare.gov signups 2017" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/LHoqMcs_oprovRpuGXGp0Vpdf1s=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9864449/voxcare_12_13_.jpeg">
<cite>Avalere</cite>
</figure>
<p id="nkLmJM"><strong>Obamacare enrollment has fallen behind. </strong>At this point, it's pretty much impossible to see how sign-ups for 2018 could catch up to 2016 or 2017 levels. It would probably require about 3 million people to enroll in the last week. </p>
<p id="X9U0hV">"That's unlikely," Caroline Pearson at Avalere told me. More <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/11/16447504/obamacare-open-enrollment-trump-sabotage"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p>
<h3 id="8opdIu">Kliff’s Notes</h3>
<p id="t6EaG0"><strong>Today's top news</strong></p>
<ul>
<li id="wyyaXn">
<a href="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/obamacares-do-or-die-week-open-enrollment"><strong>“Why This Is Obamacare’s Do-Or-Die Week”: </strong></a>“'This week is the entire ball game,' the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Larry Levitt told TPM. 'A growing enrollment means a healthier risk pool. Declining enrollment means a sicker risk pool. What happens this week will also determine the political narrative about whether the ACA is succeeding or failing.'” —<em>Alice Ollstein, Talking Points Memo</em>
</li>
<li id="8SGhVN">
<a href="http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20171212/NEWS/171219970"><strong>“House GOP lawmakers look to delay Cadillac tax, other ACA taxes”: </strong></a>“The Affordable Care Act taxes are all on the U.S. House of Representatives' chopping block. Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee introduced a bundle of bills on Tuesday to delay the Cadillac tax, employer mandate and other taxes that healthcare industry groups have opposed.” —<em>Susannah Luthi, Modern Healthcare</em>
</li>
<li id="N7WOUC">
<a href="http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/364551-gop-chairman-chip-must-be-attached-to-next-funding-bill"><strong>“GOP chairman: CHIP must be attached to next funding bill”: </strong></a>“House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Greg Walden (R-Ore.) said Tuesday that funding for a major children's health insurance program needs to be included in a short-term funding bill later this month. The comments from Walden, whose panel oversees the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), add urgency to the push to renew authorization for the program covering 9 million children.” —<em>Peter Sullivan, the Hill</em>
</li>
</ul>
<p id="gbod7k"><strong>Analysis and longer reads</strong></p>
<ul>
<li id="sgyomt">
<a href="https://www.axios.com/the-health-care-merger-arms-race-2517130378.html"><strong>“The health care merger arms race”:</strong></a> “Executives say the deals will save money and improve care. But independent research does not support those claims, and the deals raise questions about whether some companies are gaining excessive power or undermining rivals.” —<em>Bob Herman, Axios</em>
</li>
<li id="4lNDza">
<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/12/13/570479181/why-do-so-many-people-hate-obamacare-so-much"><strong>“Why Do So Many People Hate Obamacare So Much?”:</strong></a> “The Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, has roiled America since the day it was signed into law in 2010. From the start, the public was almost evenly divided between those who supported it and those who opposed it. They still are.” —<em>Julie Rovner, Kaiser Health News</em>
</li>
<li id="vQLR1c">
<a href="https://theincidentaleconomist.com/"><strong>“People Don’t Take Their Pills. Only One Thing Seems to Help.”:</strong></a> “When drugs cost them less, patients are more likely to fill prescriptions. Even if people have already purchased drugs, they may skip doses — or split the pills — because of concerns that they won’t be able to afford future refills.” —<em>Austin Frakt, The Incidental Economist</em>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="Pzq5Bu">Join the conversation</h3>
<p id="lD2QkW">Are you an Obamacare enrollee interested in what happens next? Join our <a href="http://bit.ly/obamacare-vox"><strong>Facebook community</strong></a> for conversation and updates.</p>
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/13/16773176/obamacare-repeal-died-birminghamDylan Scott2017-12-13T13:10:02-05:002017-12-13T13:10:02-05:00The Alabama election is the latest example of the political power of black women
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/D9qCXuWeiQKkvTFEDVobyUjkiwU=/0x0:1024x768/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/57968689/BlackwomenAlabama.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Black women didn’t vote to “save” Alabama last night. They voted to protect themselves. </p> <p id="sGws1o">When Democrat Doug Jones won Alabama’s hotly contested Senate special election on Tuesday night, observers on Twitter were quick to point one thing out: Jones’s victory was most likely due to high black turnout, <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/mbvd/people-are-praising-black-women-for-alsen-outcome?bffbnews&utm_term=.qhpREw04Ky#.lxj5d4Ap6B">particularly among black women</a>.</p>
<p id="OrPYmw">Despite fears of the reduced turnout often seen in an off-cycle elections, belief that the Jones campaign made missteps in its black outreach, and concerns that <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/12/reports-of-voter-suppression-tactics-pour-in-from-alabama-election/">voter suppression tactics</a> in the state could reduce the number of black voters able to cast ballots, black voters made a commanding display of political power on Tuesday night, according to preliminary exit polls. In a state where African Americans usually make up one-fourth of the electorate, the initial exit polls suggested that they <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/despite-the-obstacles-black-voters-make-a-statement-in-alabama/548237/">exceeded that turnout</a> rate, with early numbers putting them at 30 percent of Tuesday’s electorate. </p>
<p id="u6hPOd">The numbers will be in flux for a while, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/13/16771834/doug-jones-alabama-black-white-voters">as Dara Lind writes for Vox</a>, but an <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/12/12/politics/alabama-senate-election-mainbar/index.html">exit poll from CNN</a> found that 96 percent of black voters went for Jones in the election. And a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.08f6f656c9db">demographic breakdown of exit polls</a> published by the Washington Post went viral on Twitter, showing that black women, an estimated 17 percent of the Tuesday night electorate, supported Jones by a 98-2 margin. </p>
<div id="uBniEJ">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Doug Jones has won Alabama. Preliminary exit polls from <a href="https://twitter.com/PostPolls?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PostPolls</a> point to black voters as the force behind the upset victory. <a href="https://t.co/q9ucxlS0er">https://t.co/q9ucxlS0er</a> <a href="https://t.co/HXC3OsYa0u">pic.twitter.com/HXC3OsYa0u</a></p>— Post Graphics (@PostGraphics) <a href="https://twitter.com/PostGraphics/status/940795840565841922?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2017</a>
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<p id="Is6Ybc">Observers noted that the result was a powerful reminder of the power of black women’s votes. The results also come months after the Democratic Party engaged in a highly public debate about the significance of “identity politics,” with some arguing that the party was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/06/01/black-women-and-the-dnc/?utm_term=.3cceeec0b46a">taking black women for granted</a> as it pursued the votes of working-class white voters. </p>
<p id="HFkbyW">On Wednesday, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez, noted that the election was further evidence of black women being “the backbone of the Democratic Party.” </p>
<div id="Qq0cgM">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Let me be clear: We won in Alabama and Virginia because <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlackWomen?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlackWomen</a> led us to victory. Black women are the backbone of the Democratic Party, and we can’t take that for granted. Period.</p>— Tom Perez (@TomPerez) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomPerez/status/940968519088386049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2017</a>
</blockquote>
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<div id="V8h5ge">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">If you want to know who to thank for Doug Jones winning in Alabama - you can thank Black Women. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AlabamaSenateElection?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AlabamaSenateElection</a> <a href="https://t.co/8h5kfEbyJt">pic.twitter.com/8h5kfEbyJt</a></p>— UltraViolet (@UltraViolet) <a href="https://twitter.com/UltraViolet/status/940786176906051584?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2017</a>
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<p id="CgDDvh">Alabama’s Senate race isn’t the first election this year where a strong turnout among black voters, led by black women, helped determine an election. In a performance that closely matched their <a href="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/women-voters-aren-t-monolithic-terry-mcauliffe-can-thank-black-women-for-his-win">2013 behavior</a> in the state, black women in Virginia helped keep the governor’s mansion in Democratic hands, with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/local/virginia-politics/governor-exit-polls/?utm_term=.9dede5cf2f89">91 percent of their vote</a> going to Ralph Northam last month. They also showed the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/NJ">strongest support</a> for the winning Democratic gubernatorial candidate in New Jersey. And while Hillary Clinton did not win the 2016 election, black women overwhelmingly supported her, backing her by a 94-6 margin over Donald Trump and other candidates. </p>
<p id="Uo1mKf">On social media last night, some observers noted that black women were voting for Doug Jones in an effort to “save America,” which some critics argued puts too much of a burden on black women. </p>
<div id="36csN1">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">This narrative about Black voters "saving" Alabama would imply that majority of white voters--the majority of people in the state--wanted to be "saved" from Moore. They didn't. Black voters protected themselves</p>— Bree Newsome (@BreeNewsome) <a href="https://twitter.com/BreeNewsome/status/940932420416737281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2017</a>
</blockquote>
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<p id="i6Pkqn">But in a state where a disproportionate level of<strong> </strong>African-Americans <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/black-women-in-the-rural-south-are-still-sick-and-tired-of-being-sick-and-tired/">face</a> rampant poverty, poor education systems, and unequal access to healthcare, the votes of black women weren’t about some altruistic mission to save America from itself. Their votes were a very real attempt to make a change <a href="https://www.theroot.com/black-women-in-alabama-saved-themselves-last-night-1821254816">that would help themselves</a> and their families. </p>
<p id="MyAmAQ">They were also counteracting<strong> </strong>a candidate who <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/7/16748038/roy-moore-slavery-america-great">argued</a> that America was last “great” when slavery was in place,<s> </s>responded <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/12/11/16761348/roy-moore-racism-sexism">affirmatively</a> when asked if constitutional amendments after the 10th should be abolished, and was backed by a president who has engaged in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/10/23/in-trumps-response-to-myeshia-johnson-many-black-women-see-a-pattern/?utm_term=.26bfc2724f8b">vitriolic attacks</a> against prominent black women while pursuing legislation that would harm them. The results outline why they were such a powerful political force that should be focused on beyond election season. </p>
<div id="ZJ1ayv">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Black women are not political mules to be used every time a mediocre white candidate needs to win. <br><br>No amount of verbal appreciation will do us justice. Turn over the money, resources and power, then we can talk.</p>— Charlene Carruthers (@CharleneCac) <a href="https://twitter.com/CharleneCac/status/940773695504769026?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2017</a>
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<div id="WRhewq">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Can you imagine what would be possible if the DNC and political funders actually turned over resources and support to Black organizers, Black politicos, and Black woman leaders? <br><br>We can vote. <br><br>We can also lead, change, and transform nations. <br><br>Invest in black people.</p>— Brittany Packnett (@MsPackyetti) <a href="https://twitter.com/MsPackyetti/status/940793319109558272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2017</a>
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<div id="CEphuu">
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hey <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DemCandidates?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#DemCandidates</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/dccc?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@dccc</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/dscc?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@dscc</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/DemGovs?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DemGovs</a>, when's the meeting to discuss your partnership with & investment in Black women? 2018 is coming.<br><br>Signed,<br>Black Women <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AskDougJones?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AskDougJones</a></p>— Leah D. Daughtry (@LeahDaughtry) <a href="https://twitter.com/LeahDaughtry/status/940935290830688256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2017</a>
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<p id="Pi75z7">Alabama’s Senate race is only the latest election in which black women made the difference. If their high levels of turnout remain surprising, it’s because we aren’t looking to them in the first place.</p>
<p id="OLMyT9"></p>
https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/12/13/16772012/alabama-election-black-womenP.R. Lockhart