Vox - Hurricane Matthew: News and updateshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52517/voxv.png2016-10-11T16:03:13-04:00http://www.vox.com/rss/stream/129568752016-10-11T16:03:13-04:002016-10-11T16:03:13-04:00North Carolina’s record floods: “You have got to see it to believe all the devastation that has occurred.”
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<p id="M2uw7g">Hurricane Matthew may have wandered out to sea, but the watery mess it left behind in North Carolina keeps getting worse and worse. </p>
<p id="kQPWjj">The hurricane dumped record amounts of rainfall on the state over the weekend, and floodwaters are <em>still</em> rising as rivers continue to fill up and overtop their banks. These floods <a href="https://weather.com/news/news/hurricane-matthew-southeast-updates">have already killed 17 people</a> in North Carolina and left thousands stranded in their homes or on their rooftops, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/hurricanes-cost-chaos-lingers-water-logged-carolina-42718346">waiting to be rescued</a>.</p>
<p id="wiEJGi">In some areas, the flooding isn’t likely to peak until Friday, as rivers keep swelling. President Barack Obama has declared a state of emergency in 31 counties:</p>
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<cite>(AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt)</cite>
<figcaption>A home sits in flood waters in Nichols, South Carolina, on Monday, October 10, 2016.</figcaption>
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<p id="8ykIHg">“This storm is still impacting people in a big way,” <a href="https://governor.nc.gov/press-release/governor-mccrory-tours-storm-damage-fayetteville">said</a> Gov. Pat McCrory. “You have got to see it to believe all the devastation that has occurred.” </p>
<h3 id="1MTCen">How North Carolina got hit by record floods — unexpectedly</h3>
<p id="iJFymn">For those following Hurricane Matthew from the start, this was all a bit of a shock. The storm <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/6/13188880/hurricane-matthew-florida-georgia">wasn’t expected</a> to affect North Carolina much; instead, forecasters initially thought it would drift off into the Atlantic Ocean after running along the coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.</p>
<p id="Z3PjLk">But the storm ended up veering onshore on Saturday, making landfall in South Carolina and dumping record amounts of rain on the region. Parts of the coastal Carolinas got 12 to 18 inches of rain, and the National Weather Service quickly warned of a “serious inland flooding event.”</p>
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<img alt="Remnants Of Hurricane Matthew Cause Inland Flooding In Parts In North Carolina" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SJpdwbL_UwlMUZG0kDfKzyzbDXc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7260885/613946862.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Austin Snowten stands in a flooded street caused by remnants of Hurricane Matthew on October 11, 2016 in Fair Bluff, North Carolina. </figcaption>
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<p id="ZMbXkb">Jeff Halverson of the Capital Weather Gang <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/10/how-hurricane-matthew-created-such-a-devastating-deluge-in-the-carolinas/?tid=a_inl">has an excellent breakdown</a> of exactly how Hurricane Matthew created a record-breaking deluge. The western Atlantic Ocean has been exceptionally warm, and so there’s been a record amount of moisture in the air — which the hurricane converted into rain. The storm also moved extremely slowly over the Carolinas and faced just the right meteorological conditions to create massive flooding.</p>
<p id="GpCKUp">All told, meteorologist Ryan Maue <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/785139035245318144">estimates</a>, Hurricane Matthew ended up dumping 14 trillion gallons of water on the Southeast — about <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/785139602134818816">1 percent</a> of what the <em>entire country </em>received over the course of the last year:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rainfall from Hurricane <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a> in trillions of gallons during last 3 days (Table: <a href="https://t.co/QxiAEh4gVn">https://t.co/QxiAEh4gVn</a>)<br>FL+GA+SC+NC+VA = 13.6 Trillon <a href="https://t.co/3rPhsyOS0h">pic.twitter.com/3rPhsyOS0h</a></p>— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/785139035245318144">October 9, 2016</a>
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<p id="PcFvIC">North Carolina bore the brunt of it. Rivers filled up and poured over<strong> </strong>their banks. Levees were breached. Thousands of people were stranded in their homes, and rescue crews had to pick them up by boat or air. Chico Harlan <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/a-rescue-team-saves-flood-victims-in-north-carolina/2016/10/09/6d61554c-8e64-11e6-9c52-0b10449e33c4_story.html">has an excellent piece</a> in the Washington Post tagging along with one such rescue crew.</p>
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<cite>Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Rescue teams navigate floodwaters in a neighborhood on October 10, 2016, in Lumberton, North Carolina.</figcaption>
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<p id="p3lzMh">In the eastern part of the state, the towns of Tarboro and Princeville <a href="http://myfox8.com/2016/10/09/edgecombe-county-town-of-princeville-being-evacuated-as-floodwaters-rise/">had to be emptied</a> after the Tar River overflowed. In Moore County, a town had to be evacuated after officials noticed a leak in the nearby Woodlake Dam, which threatened to fail and flood places like Fort Bragg. (Officials <a href="http://abc11.com/weather/evacuations-ordered-after-threat-of-woodlake-dam-failure/1549633/">have since said</a> the dam has been stabilized.)</p>
<p id="m1BX7X">All told, these floods have killed 14 people so far — several people driving cars <a href="http://abc11.com/weather/governor-matthew-blamed-for-10-deaths-in-nc/1535987/">were killed after floodwater</a><a href="http://abc11.com/weather/governor-matthew-blamed-for-10-deaths-in-nc/1535987/">s</a> engulfed their vehicles. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Damage to one road in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Simpson?src=hash">#Simpson</a>, NC, shot by a <a href="https://twitter.com/wnct9">@wnct9</a> photojournalist. We spoke with the driver of the car, who just crashed this a.m. <a href="https://t.co/4MUWHthHD2">pic.twitter.com/4MUWHthHD2</a></p>— Lauren Sagl (@LaurenSagl) <a href="https://twitter.com/LaurenSagl/status/785122164651520001">October 9, 2016</a>
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<p id="q17FkX">The National Weather Service <a href="https://twitter.com/nwsraleigh">will continue to send out</a> flood warnings throughout the week, telling residents to move to higher ground and <em>not</em> try to drive during floods — a car can float in just two feet of water.</p>
<h3 id="AHuduo">Some broader lessons from North Carolina’s floods</h3>
<p id="8P70pG">There are at least three points to consider here going forward:</p>
<p id="tcFd9w"><strong>1)</strong> Over at the Capital Weather Gang, Jason Samenow <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/11/hurricane-matthew-shows-how-forecasting-along-the-edge-of-storms-is-meteorologys-biggest-problem/?sdfsdfsdfsdf">tries to draw lessons</a> from the way the North Carolina floods took forecasters by surprise: “For now, meteorologists are stuck in a situation in which they will have to issue forecasts with imperfect information. This means becoming masters of communicating uncertainty and identifying situations in which the forecast could quickly change for the better or worse.”</p>
<p id="Szf23Z"><strong>2) </strong>As Andrew Freedman <a href="http://mashable.com/2016/10/10/north-carolina-floods-hurricane-scale/#RsvE6srlyPq4">points out</a> in an excellent piece at Mashable, this is a good reminder that the way we judge hurricanes can be a little misleading. Right now, hurricanes are ranked <a href="http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/10/6/13191010/hurricanes-tropical-storms-guide">according to the Saffir-Simpson scale</a>, which is mainly based on wind speed. A Category 1 hurricane has maximum sustained winds between 74-95 mph, while a Category 5 has maximum sustained winds over 155 mph. (That’s the difference between light damage to roofs and pulverizing homes.)</p>
<p id="eX4GWG">One flaw, though, is that this scale doesn’t say anything about the dangers from inland flooding — which can end up killing far more people. It’s reasonable to ask whether many people misjudged the threat from Hurricane Matthew because it landed in South Carolina as a “mere” Category 1, even though it brought extremely heavy bands of rain with it. Freedman <a href="http://mashable.com/2016/10/10/north-carolina-floods-hurricane-scale/#RsvE6srlyPq4">discusses some of the alternative efforts</a> to rank hurricanes, although unfortunately they’re not as elegant as the Saffir-Simpson scale.</p>
<p id="zDYvC0"><strong>3) </strong>It’s also worth thinking about the climate change context here. In the months ahead, scientists will no doubt debate whether and how global warming contributed to this particular record-breaking flood. But let’s set that aside for a second. </p>
<p id="ktCQaP">What we <em>do </em>know is that climate scientists are warning that North Carolina can expect to face both higher sea-level rise along the coasts and more rainfall in the heaviest storms as a result of global warming. As the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture, and the very heaviest storms in the Southeast <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing">now dump 27 percent more rain per event</a> than they did in the 1950s, according to the government’s National Climate Assessment:</p>
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<cite>(<a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing">U.S. National Climate Assessment</a>)</cite>
<figcaption>Percent increase in rainfall from the heaviest 1 percent of precipitation events from 1958 to 2012.</figcaption>
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<p id="HdqAlL">Trends like this absolutely need to be studied and incorporated into future planning. In Fayetteville — one of the North Carolina cities hard-hit by floods — city officials have been planning some $60 million in storm-water infrastructure improvements. “It's likely time to recalculate and re-engineer”<strong> </strong>for even worse future events, <a href="http://www.fayobserver.com/opinion/editorials/our-view-is-this-what-we-ll-get-from-climate/article_c01c136e-e73b-5405-b298-f2677a2cbfd5.html">argues</a> the Fayetteville Observer in an editorial penned during this week’s floods.</p>
<p id="tX2WZc">The editorial <a href="http://www.fayobserver.com/opinion/editorials/our-view-is-this-what-we-ll-get-from-climate/article_c01c136e-e73b-5405-b298-f2677a2cbfd5.html">points out other areas</a> where the region may need to take climate change into account: “Even I-95 itself was flooded and impassable in places during and after the storm. What additional protection do we need for the East Coast's most important north-south highway? Before these storms, reconstruction projects had raised the roadbed of the eastern sections of U.S. 64. Was it enough? Do many other roads need the same attention?”</p>
<p id="8S2c1r">There are also questions to be asked about how communities can better protect themselves against storms. As the Washington Post <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/10/thousands-of-people-are-stranded-in-north-carolina-city-as-flood-waters-rise/">notes</a>, these floods hit some of the poorest regions in the eastern and central part of the state — including areas that lack flood insurance.</p>
<p id="NbkUya">That said, North Carolina’s conservative politicians have been famously reluctant to plan for climate change. In 2012, legislators made national headlines after they <a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/op-ed/article105162646.html">bristled against</a> the use of sea-level rise projections in coastal planning. We’ll see if this storm spurs them to reconsider.</p>
<h3 id="IH1esF">Further reading</h3>
<ul id="MmRbve">
<li>Note that Haiti <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/7/13204162/hurricane-matthew-haiti">has been hit even harder</a> by Hurricane Matthew. One thousand people are dead, and several towns have been wiped off the map.</li>
<li id="tG7qXB">Samantha Montano discussed <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/8/18/12522036/louisiana-flood-climate-change-emergency-management">many related climate-related issues</a> in an earlier piece about this year’s devastating floods in Louisiana. That’s worth reading.</li>
<li id="VvgG9G">A <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/6/23/8831675/climate-change-united-states-benefits">more detailed look</a> at how climate change is expected to affect different regions of the United States.</li>
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https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2016/10/11/13243296/north-carolina-floods-hurricane-matthewBrad Plumer2016-10-10T10:21:00-04:002016-10-10T10:21:00-04:00The death toll from Hurricane Matthew in Haiti has soared past 1,000
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<figcaption>Cleanup continues in Jeremie, Haiti, on Thursday October 6, 2016. | Logan Abassi UN/MINUSTAH</figcaption>
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<p id="JsJWcc">While Hurricane Matthew<a target="_blank" href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/9/13217634/hurricane-matthew-floods-north-carolina"> caused modest damage</a> in the United States, the devastation in Haiti has been absolutely horrifying.</p>
<p id="Eeh0kf">At least 1,000 Haitians have died, according to <a target="_blank" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-matthew-haiti-idUSKCN12A02W?il=0">a survey of local officials by Reuters</a>, and tens of thousands have been left homeless after the storm flattened entire towns last week. The official death toll is still uncertain, and it could rise further in the days ahead, particularly with cholera <a target="_blank" href="http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/10/09/aid-convoys-arrive-in-haiti-as-cholera-fears-grow.html">now breaking out</a> in some areas.</p>
<p id="xXQFfI">Matthew was a Category 4 hurricane when it hit the western cities of Les Cayes and Jeremie on October 4. Here are some <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/minustah/" target="_blank">wrenching photos of the aftermath</a> from the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti:</p>
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<cite>(<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/minustah/30161425765/in/album-72157674866535605/">Logan Abassi UN/MINUSTAH</a>)</cite>
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<p id="DJoigw">The UN says that <a target="_blank" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-matthew-haiti-idUSKCN12A02W?il=0">1.4 million people</a> are in dire need of assistance. Aid workers and rescue teams struggled early on to reach many of the hardest-hit areas, as floods made roads inaccessible and severe winds cut communication lines.</p>
<p>Making things worse, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-matthew-haiti-idUSKCN12719D" target="_blank">cholera outbreaks</a> have killed at least 7 people after flood water mixed with sewage (cholera causes diarrhea and severe dehydration and can kill within hours). The storm also destroyed up to 80 percent of crops in some areas.</p>
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<cite>(<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/minustah/30161425765/in/album-72157674866535605/">Logan Abassi UN/MINUSTAH</a>)</cite>
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<p id="r1jKF1">Haiti is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, which only increases its vulnerability to hurricanes and other disasters. The country’s already flimsy building codes <a href="http://www.aia.org/aiaucmp/groups/aia/documents/pdf/aiab082363.pdf">are rarely enforced</a>. Thousands of houses <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article106369527.html">toppled during the storm</a>, particularly those not made of concrete blocks.</p>
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<cite>(<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/minustah/30047349142/in/album-72157674866535605/">Logan Abassi UN/MINUSTAH</a>)</cite>
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<p id="NUkBUs">Poor preparation also hurt: Whereas neighboring Cuba has <a href="https://www.american.edu/clals/upload/CIP-Disaster-Relief-Management.pdf">mandatory hurricane drills every spring</a>, Haiti tends to be far less ready. Before Matthew arrived, Haitian officials struggled to evacuate areas in the hurricane’s path. As Reuters <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-matthew-idUSKCN1240BH">reported</a>, "Poor Haitians are often reluctant to leave home in the face of storms, fearing their few belongings will be stolen."</p>
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<cite>(Logan Abassi UN/MINUSTAH)</cite>
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<p id="zb5vmj">Since the hurricane has passed, Haiti’s government has struggled to provide food and water to those affected. By some <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-matthew-haiti-protests-idUSKCN1262NB">accounts</a>, corpses have been dumped in mass graves to prevent decomposing, and doctors were slow to return to hospitals.</p>
<p id="U45R7D">One key question now is how recovery efforts will unfold. When a major earthquake hit Haiti’s capital in 2010, leaving 250,000 dead, international aid groups swooped in. But critics say <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/06/hurricane-matthew-haiti-aid-long-term-economic-investment">those groups did little</a> to help build Haiti’s capacity to respond to future disasters. What money they did spend was often <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/06/16/482020436/senators-report-finds-fundamental-concerns-about-red-cross-finances">ineffective</a> or <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/06/16/482020436/senators-report-finds-fundamental-concerns-about-red-cross-finances">poorly directed</a>, with less than 1 percent bolstering local organizations. Making things worse, UN peacekeepers arrived in the country <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/18/world/americas/united-nations-haiti-cholera.html?_r=0">only to help cause</a> a massive cholera epidemic that later killed thousands.</p>
<p id="MeTrlb">This time around, the Haitian government is trying to avoid a repeat of that fiasco. Officials <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article106369527.html">have said</a> they will take charge of the recovery efforts, rather than allowing NGOs to swarm in with little accounting of where the money actually goes.</p>
<p>In <a target="_blank" href="http://thehaitianblogger.blogspot.com/2016_10_01_archive.html">a statement,</a> Haitian ambassador to the United States Paul Altidor said the country would like to "avoid mistakes from the past" and encouraged donors "to work with the local organizations and institutions on the ground in order to gain their input on the actual needs of the affected communities."</p>
<h3>Further reading:</h3>
<p><span>—If you want to donate to Haiti, read</span><a target="_blank" href="http://www.cgdev.org/blog/how-help-haiti-aftermath-hurricane-matthew"> this advice </a>from the Center for Global Development<span>. They note that money is far more effective than water bottles or clothing. Also: </span><span>"</span><span>There are a number of excellent Haiti-based organisations, like Zanmi Lasante and TiKay Haiti, who are best placed to understand and address local needs, but who struggle for funding."</span></p>
<p>— In the United States, meanwhile, Hurricane Matthew<a class="top-page" target="_blank" href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/9/13217634/hurricane-matthew-floods-north-carolina"> has killed 19 people</a> and caused record flooding in North Carolina</p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/10/7/13204162/hurricane-matthew-haitiBrad Plumer2016-10-09T13:54:29-04:002016-10-09T13:54:29-04:00Hurricane Matthew has now killed 19 people in the US; record floods in North Carolina
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<img alt="Hurricane Matthew Bears Down On Atlantic Coast Of Florida" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bRxXXLSiKWAVD6d31c87CGl_buE=/0x0:5067x3800/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51272151/613367298.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>An abandoned car damaged by a fallen tree sits along Interstate 16, October 8, 2016 in Savannah, Georgia. | Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p id="LIHjJ9">Hurricane Matthew has <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-matthew-batters-florida-coast-dead-million-lose/story?id=42608853">killed 19 people in the United States</a> so far, left another 2.2 million without power, and caused <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/784905567278141440">record-breaking flooding in North Carolina</a>.</p>
<p id="5Bpkvk">While the storm was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday and is heading out to the Atlantic Ocean, it’s leaving plenty of damage in its wake. North Carolina officials said that <a href="https://twitter.com/GovOfficeNC/status/785104662240325634">at least 887 people</a> have had to be rescued so far, as rivers continue to overflow and flash floods catch many people unaware. Flooding is <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NCEmergency/posts/1131092936945008">likely to last through the week</a>:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Storm surge flooding from Hatteras Village this morning <a href="https://t.co/wJWD6MBWmd">pic.twitter.com/wJWD6MBWmd</a></p>— NHC_Surge (@NHC_Surge) <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/785095078805180418">October 9, 2016</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">8:05a: Tremendous flooding this AM in the Pinetops area. Roofotp rescues in progress. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WRAL?src=hash">#WRAL</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ncwx?src=hash">#ncwx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/matthew?src=hash">#matthew</a> <a href="https://t.co/j8JR9wCDDB">pic.twitter.com/j8JR9wCDDB</a></p>— Brian Shrader (@wraltraffic) <a href="https://twitter.com/wraltraffic/status/785089343501119488">October 9, 2016</a>
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<p id="rQgJWz">Matthew, <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/6/13188880/hurricane-matthew-florida-georgia">as you’ll recall</a>, was originally a Category 4 hurricane <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/7/13204162/hurricane-matthew-haiti">that absolutely devastated the western regions of Haiti</a> — leaving nearly 900 dead — before sidling up to the coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. </p>
<p id="GEVLf7">Ever since Thursday, the storm has been lashing the coasts with high winds and destructive storm surges. On Saturday, Matthew finally weakened to a Category 1 hurricane and <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/10/08/497167154/large-part-of-s-c-coast-faces-storm-surge-of-6-9-feet-from-hurricane-matthew">made landfall</a> south of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, causing serious inland flooding. </p>
<p id="MEjKZ0">This <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/091138.shtml?swath#contents">image</a> from the National Hurricane Center shows Matthew’s path over the past week:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QuK1pLm_AxC0jLXEF-m28g7xluA=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7245779/matthew%20track.png">
<cite>(National Hurricane Center)</cite>
</figure>
<p id="7NyLM7">Matthew could have been much, much worse — it could have very easily smashed right into Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, with winds strong enough to pulverize homes. Instead, thanks to a bit of meteorological good fortune, it <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/7/13202584/hurricane-matthew-florida-impacts">mostly stayed offshore</a>, buzzing along the coast of Florida and Georgia. </p>
<p id="MHTSD0">But even along the coast, Matthew was enough to destroy sand dunes, damage trees and homes, and send huge storm surges — reaching up to 11 feet at high tide — to flood coastal cities. Early estimates suggest that Matthew <a href="https://weather.com/news/news/hurricane-matthew-threat-florida-billion-dollars-cost-storm-surge">has inflicted at least $4 billion in damage</a> throughout the Southeast:</p>
<div id="R8Ckcu">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" align="center">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Downtown St Augustine after <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneMatthew?src=hash">#HurricaneMatthew</a> It looks post apocalyptic. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/photo?src=hash">#photo</a> credit Zoopants - Imgur <a href="https://t.co/eCxFO6nbuv">pic.twitter.com/eCxFO6nbuv</a></p>— Reg Saddler (@zaibatsu) <a href="https://twitter.com/zaibatsu/status/784992465430441984">October 9, 2016</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Damage from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a> in Flagler Beach. <a href="https://t.co/yBAlWFd61z">pic.twitter.com/yBAlWFd61z</a></p>— GulfCoastStormCenter (@GCWXC) <a href="https://twitter.com/GCWXC/status/784498820344197121">October 7, 2016</a>
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<div id="rzz5n0">
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The post office in Daytona Beach across from the ocean, the roof is gone. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneMatthew?src=hash">#HurricaneMatthew</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WFTV?src=hash">#WFTV</a> <a href="https://t.co/xv5PNNz1Te">pic.twitter.com/xv5PNNz1Te</a></p>— Kenny Gibson (@KGibsonTV9) <a href="https://twitter.com/KGibsonTV9/status/784510331292966912">October 7, 2016</a>
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<p id="lDolwx">At least 19 people in the United States <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-matthew-batters-florida-coast-dead-million-lose/story?id=42608853">are reported to have died in the storm</a> so far: eight in North Carolina, one in South Carolina, four in Georgia, six in Florida. That toll includes at least two people in North Carolina whose cars were swept away by floods, two people in Georgia who were killed by falling trees, and one woman in Florida who suffered a heart attack and was unable to be reached by medical crews.</p>
<p id="Bw1ZTe">Lately, North Carolina has been suffering the brunt of the storm. After Matthew made landfall, it dragged heavy bands of rain across the eastern portion of North Carolina, resulting in heavy inland flooding and flash floods. </p>
<div id="crM7ta">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" align="center">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rainfall from Hurricane <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a> in trillions of gallons during last 3 days (Table: <a href="https://t.co/QxiAEh4gVn">https://t.co/QxiAEh4gVn</a>)<br>FL+GA+SC+NC+VA = 13.6 Trillon <a href="https://t.co/3rPhsyOS0h">pic.twitter.com/3rPhsyOS0h</a></p>— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/785139035245318144">October 9, 2016</a>
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<p id="wp61nw">"Hurricane Matthew is presenting major challenges across the state, with heavy impacts on road conditions across eastern and central North Carolina," Gov. Pat McCrory <a href="https://apps.ncdot.gov/newsreleases/details.aspx?r=13115">said</a> on Saturday. "We are seeing lots of fallen trees, downed power lines and flooded roads. I urge people to stay off the roads until conditions improve."</p>
<p id="Cy3HHC">Rivers will continue to overtop even after the storm has passed. The National Weather Service <a href="https://twitter.com/nwsraleigh">has been sending out flash flood warnings</a>, telling people in those areas to move to higher ground and not to drive. (Cars tend to float in just 2 feet of water.)</p>
<div id="OxM7tW">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" align="center">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">⚠️ Move to higher ground! Flash Flood Warning including Moore County, NC until 2:45 PM EDT <a href="https://t.co/UtJPEtAvab">pic.twitter.com/UtJPEtAvab</a></p>— NWS Raleigh (@NWSRaleigh) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSRaleigh/status/785120030593839105">October 9, 2016</a>
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<p id="kbThym">Meanwhile, the storm has <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=88896&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_title">left more than 2.2 million</a> people across the Southeastern US without power. NASA’s Earth Observatory took this stunning satellite image of the storm snuffing out lights across the region:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IclqwCU1TET-xU8z9IYh7mpWevE=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7245965/matthew_vir_2016282.jpg">
<cite>(<a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=88896&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_title">NASA Earth Observatory</a>)</cite>
</figure>
<h3 id="oyL0AW">Further reading:</h3>
<ul id="R9cCRA">
<li>The death toll from Hurricane Matthew in Haiti <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/7/13204162/hurricane-matthew-haiti">has soared past 800</a>
</li>
<li>Why do some people <a href="http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/10/6/13188336/hurricane-matthew-evacuation-florida-south-carolina-psychology">never evacuate for a hurricane</a>?</li>
<li>The <a href="http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/10/6/13191010/hurricanes-tropical-storms-guide">life</a><a href="http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/10/6/13191010/hurricanes-tropical-storms-guide"> </a><a href="http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/10/6/13191010/hurricanes-tropical-storms-guide">cycle of a hurricane, explained</a>
</li>
</ul>
https://www.vox.com/2016/10/9/13217634/hurricane-matthew-floods-north-carolinaBrad Plumer2016-10-07T16:00:03-04:002016-10-07T16:00:03-04:00A map of the most powerful hurricanes in the US since 1950
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3iHQztl6sysBRcoQOJurlYi2l5k=/0x43:2812x2152/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51252197/fb.0.png" />
</figure>
<p id="jGGSlV"><a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/6/13192834/hurricane-matthew-latest-update">Hurricane Matthew</a> has been called the <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/hurricane-matthew-east-coast-2032618865.html">most powerful Atlantic storm</a> in more than a decade.</p>
<p id="h7Tpxf">It is expected to violently churn up the coasts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina this weekend, after reportedly killing <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/07/world/americas/hurricane-matthew-haiti.html">more than 800</a> people in Haiti early in the week. </p>
<p id="bj4ekt">Originally, Hurricane Matthew was declared a Category 4 hurricane — though it has since been reduced down to a still very dangerous Category 3. These categories refer to the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php">Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale</a> — a 1 (least powerful) to 5 (most) scale used to measure the strength of a hurricane, based on wind speed:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="A chart describing storms labeled Category 1 (winds up to 95 miles per hour, isolated injuries) through Category 5 (winds above 155 mph, extreme flooding)." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/pR1cWA24L9reOSgpbPBse8zRifk=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7238885/scale.png">
<cite>Zachary Crockett/Vox</cite>
</figure>
<p id="cNUZnG">The projected force of Hurricane Matthew made me curious about the most powerful hurricanes to ever touch US soil. So, using historical data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">National Climatic Data Center</a>, I looked back at the numbers.</p>
<p id="AetL8n">Since 1950, eight hurricanes have produced greater than Category 3 force winds on or over US land. Six have been Category 4 hurricanes, and two have reached Category 5. Over the same time period, there have been a total of 30 Category 3 hurricanes — about one every two years, on average.</p>
<p id="LoR9de">Most of these hurricanes affected multiple states, but we’ve placed the dots below where the storm struck at the peak of its power.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JQe2U7tthVThabTlDsdm14hb3Mw=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7239341/11hurricanemap.png">
</figure>
<p id="RIKLHX">Collectively, these hurricanes killed an estimated 952 Americans, and caused $79.1 billion (adjusted for 2016 dollars) in damage. Five of the eight occurred prior to 1970.</p>
<p id="RYg6oD">Three of the hurricanes that caused the most extensive damage occurred in Florida, including Hurricane Charley (August 9 to 15, 2004), which flattened large portions of Punta Gorda, as small town on the coast.</p>
<p id="2ONJi7">Florida, in general, is hit by an astonishing number of powerful hurricanes. Of 290 Category 1+ hurricanes documented by <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/">HURDAT</a> since 1851, 117 — or 40 percent — have occurred in the Sunshine State.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ha8XZmKlLAnX7SQDbNOahgYtFkI=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7239015/Effects_of_Hurricane_Charley_from_FEMA_Photo_Library_7.jpg">
<figcaption>Extensive damage caused by Hurricane Charley (2004) — the last Category 4 hurricane to directly strike Florida.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="NjCFBs">As hurricane researcher <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-do-hurricanes-hit-the/">Chris W. Landsea</a> told Scientific American, there are two chief reasons for Florida’s hurricane frequency. </p>
<p id="XeFa0F">“[First], hurricanes in the northern hemisphere form at tropical and subtropical latitudes and then tend to move toward the west-northwest,” he says. "The second factor is that the Gulf Stream provides a source of warm (above 80 degrees Fahrenheit) waters, which helps to maintain the hurricane.” Florida, which juts out in the ocean, is uniquely positioned to bear the brunt of these factors.</p>
<p id="fEcujr">To stay up to date on Hurricane Matthew, you can follow these <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/6/13188880/hurricane-matthew-florida-georgia">live updates</a> from my colleague, Brad Plumer. He’ll be keeping an eye on the storm through the weekend.</p>
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/10/7/13201834/hurricane-matthew-category-3-hurricane-historyZachary Crockett2016-10-07T13:00:08-04:002016-10-07T13:00:08-04:00Hurricane Matthew is walloping Florida — but it could have been much, much worse
<figure>
<img alt="Florida Prepares As Hurricane Matthew Barrels Towards Atlantic Coast" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kb2dICzNulcoJYiW0LDz3Vb5-cQ=/0x27:3000x2277/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51248995/613160100.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="Pk49jV">Right now, Hurricane Matthew is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/07/hurricane-matthew-scrapes-florida-coast-eyes-coastal-georgia-and-south-carolina/">traveling parallel to the coast of Florida</a>, lashing the edge of the state with 100 mph winds and dangerous storm surges that are flooding land that’s usually dry. </p>
<p id="ToPpPX">The damage <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-matthew-upgraded-category-millions-warned-storm-kill/story?id=42608853">has been considerable</a> already: 600,000 residents in Florida have been left without power, and one woman died of a heart attack after emergency officials couldn’t get to her through the storm.</p>
<p id="YXNVMG">There’s more to come:<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071455.shtml"> “Life-threatening” storm surges</a> are expected in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, with waters rising between 3 and 10 feet in some areas at high tide. South Carolina could face <a href="https://twitter.com/postandcourier/status/784051264900530176">more than a foot of rainfall</a> and deadly floods when Matthew reaches the state this weekend. </p>
<p id="4OTC4p">These videos offer a glimpse of the havoc so far in Daytona Beach:</p>
<div id="dLmNyL">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" align="center">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Incredible video of Hurricane <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a> pummeling the coast of Florida near Daytona Beach <a href="https://t.co/qHPadiq1wL">https://t.co/qHPadiq1wL</a> <a href="https://t.co/RwJKbUigW0">pic.twitter.com/RwJKbUigW0</a></p>— WPLG Local 10 News (@WPLGLocal10) <a href="https://twitter.com/WPLGLocal10/status/784424754958757888">October 7, 2016</a>
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<div id="sUb0S7">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" align="center">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Getting strongest winds now in Daytona Beach. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneMatthew?src=hash">#HurricaneMatthew</a> <a href="https://t.co/K8IWRoZRB0">pic.twitter.com/K8IWRoZRB0</a></p>— Mike Lovecchio (@mikelovecchio) <a href="https://twitter.com/mikelovecchio/status/784390811656093697">October 7, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
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<p id="HtvhUH">What’s notable, however, is that this hurricane could have been much, <em>much</em> worse. </p>
<p id="tNJcsr">As Matthew <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/6/13188880/hurricane-matthew-florida-georgia">traveled up</a> from the Bahamas to Florida on Thursday, the storm wobbled ever so slightly eastward, away from the state. </p>
<p id="OvfbE9">That meant the difference between a Category 4 hurricane slamming directly into Florida and a slightly weaker Category 3 hurricane remaining just off the coast. Those little stutter steps may have spared Florida billions of dollars in damages:</p>
<div id="OOvQLM">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" align="center">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">U.S. impacts from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a> far from over, but recognize these three slight wobbles likely saved Florida billions of dollars in damage. <a href="https://t.co/hEX6XrsJd5">pic.twitter.com/hEX6XrsJd5</a></p>— Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/784376445262901248">October 7, 2016</a>
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<div id="5hxtzc">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" align="center">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Last 24-hrs from RTMA analysis looks like Hurricane <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a> went around the Cape -- wobble or purposeful -- good all the same. <a href="https://t.co/zTAcIJbrkd">pic.twitter.com/zTAcIJbrkd</a></p>— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784426549718110208">October 7, 2016</a>
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<p id="a5Gi7X">This doesn’t mean Florida’s in the clear, however. Even though the storm remains offshore, hurricane-force winds can extend as far as 60 miles out from the center. Anyone on the coast or even slightly inland is very much at risk, and officials were correct to order evacuations from barrier islands and beaches.</p>
<p id="sd69uV">And there are still major threats ahead. Here’s the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071455.shtml">National Hurricane Center</a>: “There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina.” Cities like Jacksonville will face serious flooding in areas that normally stay dry.</p>
<p id="ffDTjO">Here’s the latest forecast for Matthew’s expected path:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IzNe8vhhUn2cVn1a69YV-T-Wvv8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7238159/matthew%2011am%2010-7-16.png">
<cite>(National Hurricane Center)</cite>
</figure>
<p id="0ION7P">Note that after sliding up past Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, the storm is expected to loop back <em>around </em>next week. By that point, however, it’s expected to have weakened into a tropical depression, with much weaker winds. Still, check the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">National Hurricane Center</a> for constant updates.</p>
<p id="LQjCvf">The one interesting footnote here is that if Matthew <em>doesn’t </em>make landfall, that will mean the United States <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/04/the-u-s-coast-is-in-an-unprecedented-hurricane-drought-why-this-is-terrifying/">will maintain its 11-year streak</a> without a major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) making landfall. (Hurricane Hermine hit Florida last month, but that was only a Category 1; the last major hurricane to hit was Wilma in 2005.)</p>
<h3 id="h6BC9Q">Further reading:</h3>
<ul id="HhU8pQ">
<li>Chris Mooney <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/10/06/heres-what-we-can-say-about-climate-change-and-hurricane-matthew/?utm_term=.3ab1001bfed5">looks at the link</a> between climate change and hurricanes.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.vox.com/first-person/2016/10/7/13199766/hurricane-matthew-florida-evacuate">Hurricane Matthew: I almost refused to evacuate. Here’s why I changed my mind.</a></li>
</ul>
https://www.vox.com/2016/10/7/13202584/hurricane-matthew-florida-impactsBrad Plumer2016-10-07T12:00:08-04:002016-10-07T12:00:08-04:00I almost refused to evacuate before Hurricane Matthew. Here’s why I changed my mind.
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3XsYcYiyn_VflX2umDXnwvzpmJI=/0x0:4227x3170/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51245127/GettyImages-612976746.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Waves wash ashore near the Daytona Beach Pier on Thursday. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="1IlyDm">“Are you leaving?” my next-door neighbor Sarah asked me.</p>
<p id="CQ8oZc">It was Tuesday morning. I was sitting on the front porch of my home just north of Daytona Beach, Florida, admiring the 3-foot-tall flowers on the aloe vera plants. </p>
<p id="g9LItA">I had no idea what Sarah was talking about. I had been following the news out of Haiti of how <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/6/13192834/hurricane-matthew-latest-update">Hurricane Matthew</a> was destroying everything in its path, but hadn’t thought much of its ability to affect us. When my partner and I signed the lease on the house back in January, we were told repeatedly that this part of Florida <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/06/in-focus-the-unprecedented-hurricane-disaster-facing-the-east-coast-of-florida/?postshare=2281475774211088&tid=ss_tw">was hurricane-proof</a>. </p>
<p id="DzSaKd">Nevertheless, Sarah was agitated, one hand cupping her cigarette while the other gestured up the road toward the beach. </p>
<p id="Stpfk4">“The mail lady said that if she were us, she would get the hell out. We booked a hotel inland. We’re leaving tomorrow morning,” she said. “They’re saying we could get 40-foot surges.” </p>
<p id="vD4Mt1">Inwardly, I rolled my eyes. My brother fishes in the Bering Sea. <em>He knows</em> 40-foot waves. No way would we get them. There wasn’t enough wave even for surfing on our little beach. </p>
<p id="QyQAQK">We talked some more, but I felt as if I were humoring her. </p>
<p id="6Xoo9z">I went in and talked to Rob, my partner.</p>
<p id="v7Q56w">“She’s hysterical,” he said. “I’m not going anywhere.” </p>
<p id="HBLt8M">The next morning, when I woke up, the first thing Rob said to me was, “I think we’re going to have to leave.” </p>
<h3 id="mbRzM4">I have a history of not taking Mother Nature seriously</h3>
<p id="0n5Cgt">The first time I remember Mother Nature trying to kill me was when I was 11 years old. My family was car camping in northern California. After dinner, we went for a walk and ended up down by the edge of the Eel River. I had never been close to rapids before. The blue-green glacier water tantalized me. It looked wild, and I wanted to be part of it. </p>
<p id="e6O7oO">As my parents and two brothers stood on the bank, I wandered away from them and dared myself to dip my foot in the water. I could see my foot through to the bottom, and when I stepped in, the cold water only came up to my ankles. The opposite bank was only 10 yards or so, and I thought I could cross the river while no one was watching. The fast water moving across my ankles, tugging at me, exhilarated me. I wanted to prove to my dad that I wasn’t scared, and I was imagining that my family must all be watching me by this point, so I didn’t turn around. I wanted them to see how brave I was. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/k8wOtYfUzaAlBjSolHZCgLtwJlI=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7236799/IMG_0152.JPG">
<cite>Lorraine Berry</cite>
<figcaption>The island where the author lives, just a few days before Hurricane Matthew hit.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="uegrFl">The next step was disastrous: The bottom of the river fell away, and I slipped into the rapids. This wasn’t a game anymore. The current had a hold on me, and I was being washed downstream. I saw my parents on the bank and realized no one could help me. For a split second, I wondered what it would be like to drown. </p>
<p id="pLUDjT">But I also began to think. I knew I couldn’t swim against the current. The water was moving me in the direction of some overhanging trees, and in those seconds that lasted a lifetime, I grabbed one of the tree limbs and pulled myself out. </p>
<p id="6aLfUe">Years later, river rapids still fill me with dread. </p>
<p id="jykQod">The second time I didn’t take nature seriously was as an adult in New York state. During a blizzard, I attempted to drive my car. Worse, I had my toddler daughter in the back. When I did the inevitable – put the car into a snowbank – I feared that we would suffocate if we stayed in the car. </p>
<p id="KUUcgw">So, I attempted to hike back to my house in minus 17 degree temperatures, during an hour when 7 inches of snow fell, while carrying her. At one point, alone on our country road, I was so cold and so tired, I started thinking about what I had learned in books I had read as a kid, like <em>Little House on the Prairie</em> and <em>The Call of the Wild</em>. All I could remember was that I could not stop. We were rescued by someone driving. I remember that I cried for an hour when I got home, furious with myself for nearly killing my child. </p>
<h3 id="z2Zl2t">Our part of Florida was supposed to be hurricane-proof</h3>
<p id="ppUZAJ">Rob and I weren’t unreasonable for rolling our eyes at Sarah. It is almost unheard of for hurricanes to hit the Daytona area: They tend to bounce off the southern tip of Florida and then churn out to sea, only to hit the Carolinas as they move up the Eastern Seaboard. </p>
<p id="P5WdU2">But by Wednesday, it was clear that Matthew was on a different path. The tracking for the storm showed that the eye was expected to pass a few miles south of us. Authorities were predicting that when Hurricane Matthew hit Daytona Beach, sustained winds could be 140 miles per hour, with 7- to 9-foot beach surge. </p>
<h3 id="JM44Ki">The turning point: when we realized that if we didn’t leave, we would be trapped</h3>
<p id="NEbk2L">The turning point for us came when authorities announced that they would be closing <a href="http://www.newsdaytonabeach.com/wndb-news/bridges-to-beachside-to-close-thurs-night-in-volusia-for-hurricane-matthew/">all beachside bridges</a> on Thursday night. That thought made me cold. It meant that if you were still on the island on Thursday afternoon, there would be no way to leave. An echo of panic made my fingers shake — just for a second. </p>
<p id="Ahw8Jl">I looked at our 8-foot ceiling on our single-story bungalow.</p>
<p id="5ptfjn">I thought about bodies floating in houses in New Orleans. I imagined floating inside the living room, fighting for the last bit of air near the ceiling. </p>
<p id="Gogza6">“Where do we go?” I said. </p>
<p id="g6nFYx">I went on the state’s disaster preparedness website, looking for information. While evacuation shelters were listed, there was no simple geographical information. Nowhere did it say, “Go to Mobile, Alabama” or anything like that. The advice was simply to “get out of the path of the storm.” But the tracking models showed several different paths. What to do? </p>
<p id="1vggte">Further complicating things was that Rob and I would not be evacuating alone — we’d have my mother (who lives a half-mile from us) with us, plus four dogs and a cat. While the shelters announced that pets would be accepted, I couldn’t see my painfully shy mother being comfortable for a few days while trying to control the animals as we bedded down among strangers. I knew that one motel chain — Red Roof Inns — was pet-friendly, and rather than try to find two motel rooms on my own, I called their central reservation number and explained our dilemma to the reservation rep, asking him to look for something on the northwest coast of Florida. </p>
<p id="pcmZMJ">But midway through the conversation, Rob interrupted me to say that my mother had suggested we call my aunt and uncle. They’re on vacation in Canada, but they live in Orlando and their large house was empty. “Of course you can stay there,” they said. </p>
<p id="KNIo9j">While Orlando was only about 100 miles to the west and was still in the path of the hurricane, it was inland, and we would eliminate the ocean surge danger. Plus, finding someplace to accommodate animals was taken care of. </p>
<h3 id="SNTDa9">How do you decide what to take with you when you have just two hours to pack? </h3>
<p id="2Ivmuk">We gave ourselves two hours to pack. We needed supplies to last three days, when, we assumed, we would be able to return home — if there was a home to return to. I thought about that as I gathered my things. Toiletries and clothes were easy. We also took passports and birth certificates out of our safe. </p>
<p id="gKTvh0">I grabbed a few books and a journal, but as I went through the house, I kept lifting boxes of research and work off the floor and piled it on top of my desk, trusting that if water came through, it wouldn’t be higher than 3 feet. </p>
<p id="ARcDtn">When I’ve watched people react to natural disasters on television, I’ve always been surprised by their emotions over losing their houses. Houses are just <em>things</em>, I’ve always thought. As long as you and your loved ones are alive, isn’t that all that matters? I didn’t want to be one of those people who was going to get upset at the thought of losing <em>stuff</em>. </p>
<p id="IJDFZW">I stood in front of my jewelry box, which mostly holds costume jewelry I inherited from my great-grandmother. I couldn’t decide if taking all of it was a sign that I had surrendered all hope of returning home or if I was putting too much value on trinkets. And then I kicked myself for overthinking it. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FkYPRelbY2Dn-i8s9RQI0sD49n4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7236805/GettyImages-612888256.jpg">
<cite>Leila Macor/AFP/Getty Images)</cite>
<figcaption>Empty shelves in a Daytona Beach grocery store this week.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="Gb8c5M">Finally, I grabbed the two sixpences I had worn in my shoes on my wedding day, and the military brass badge from my Lancashire great-grandfather’s World War I service and decided they were the only truly irreplaceable things that I owned. </p>
<p id="RV2J5z">Across the street, the single mom with two children had packed up and left while we were packing. Our next-door neighbors said they would be leaving soon after we did. The neighbors on our other side are “snowbirds” and had not yet arrived for the winter. My mum was worried: So far, two of the friends from her street, both longtime residents and people in their 70s, had told her they were going to hunker down and wait out the storm. </p>
<p id="9zqMxV">She had tried to convince them to leave, but they had told her that in all the years they had lived on the island, the water had never crossed it. There was no point in trying to explain to them that the authorities said this strength of storm had never hit this part of Florida before. They could not be moved. </p>
<h3 id="FS0p0P">I thought people would be friendly — but they were mainly looking out for themselves</h3>
<p id="yhzwmw">We began our journey westward. Overhead, the sky was cerulean and the wisps of white in the sky looked more like something you would decorate a Christmas tree with, rather than something that could potentially kill us. I-4, the freeway that takes one west to Orlando, was filled with the traffic of an ordinary business day. My mom drove. She cursed the other drivers, a sure sign that she was upset. I knew she didn’t want to talk about what we were leaving behind. </p>
<p id="CYrvYx">When I lived in Ithaca, New York, prior to a blizzard, residents knew to fill up the car with gas and stock the house with groceries in case the roads didn’t get plowed for a few days. For a hurricane, authorities advised filling the car up with gas, loading up on batteries and flashlights for the inevitable power outages, and also loading up on water because of the dangers of water contamination from the floods that come with hurricane rains. The sight of empty water shelves in the grocery stores shocked me. </p>
<p id="VFWnmg">The trip to the grocery store reenforced that, as the local weatherman had kept repeating, “This is not a dry run, folks. This is happening.” The lines to check out were backed up into the grocery aisles. Parents wandered the aisles with their children. “What do you want?” I heard them ask, and I found myself grateful that I would not be responsible for keeping young children safe and entertained during the coming hours. I teared up as I stopped my cart to avoid running into an elderly man who was shopping with his wife. He looked disoriented, shell-shocked that he was having to prepare for what authorities kept referring to as a disaster. </p>
<p id="9L5CWv">I had hoped that people would be friendly, but instead, all I sensed was tension. No one yielded to my car in the parking lot, and I narrowly avoided running into other bodies who streamed from the grocery store exit, intent on <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-batters-bahamas-set-strengthen-florida-approach/91652096/">getting home</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-will-deal-a-devastating-blow-to-the-florida-coast/?tid=a_inl">getting safe</a>. </p>
<h3 id="ZD8FjN">After we evacuated, I became furious at the people who stayed behind </h3>
<p id="AchSAf">When we arrived in Orlando, we turned on the news. The constant refrain from the news anchors, Gov. Rick Scott, the meteorologists, and safety experts was that not evacuating was a death sentence. </p>
<p id="YtlL43">A reporter interviewed a middle-aged woman who lived near the beach. She was in her car, and behind her you could see two children who looked to be about 10 years old. The boy’s face was filled with fear — his eyes pleaded with the camera, <em>Save me</em><em>,</em><em> </em>as his grandma declared, “We’re going to hunker down. I’ve lived in my house for 58 years, and I’ve lived through many hurricanes. I’ve got nine people in my house, and we’re going to ride out the storm.” </p>
<p id="LpBZJd">The camera cut back to the anchors in the newsroom, both of whom could be seen shaking their heads in disapproval. </p>
<p id="2cY75Y">“We want to emphasize that staying along the coast is a <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/gov-rick-scott-this-storm-will-kill-you/2296764">life-threatening decision</a>,” they said. “This type of hurricane has <em>never</em> been seen in these parts. Old-time Floridians may think they’ve seen this before, but they haven’t.” </p>
<p id="ZBkj2w">For an hour, the news was one person after another, pleading with those who had still not evacuated to “get out now.” There was still room in shelters. There was still a narrow window of time. They could still save themselves. </p>
<p id="tYhUZq">I found myself enraged. I turned to my mom. “You know, I don’t care if you’re stupid enough to kill yourself,” I said to her, “But if you put children’s lives at risk, you should be prosecuted after this is over — if you survive.” </p>
<p id="LFqMS1">I worry that when the storm has passed, first responders will find the bodies of children whose parents thought they knew better than the government about this storm. This is Florida, after all, the state that hates to pay taxes and where Trump signs litter my neighborhood’s lawns. </p>
<p id="mwz0XN">And I worry that the state will have no way to cope with the <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/gov-rick-scott-this-storm-will-kill-you/2296764)">mental health costs</a> that are sure to arise, not only in first responders having to deal with death and destruction, but also in children like that little boy on the news. Who was going to comfort him in the night as Matthew raged outside? Surely that woman who claimed herself tougher than the storm didn’t seem the type who would take a scared little boy onto her knee. As I went to bed Thursday night, his eyes followed me into the darkness. </p>
<h3 id="dsX79D">Moving to Florida was supposed to be our escape from bad weather. Then Matthew happened.</h3>
<p id="1f5fMN">Rob and I never thought we would move to Florida. The New York-to-Florida move is such a cliché. But after my father died, moving close to my widowed mother felt like an obligation I couldn’t walk away from. While my neighbors’ red-state politics and overt racism is the cause of arguments and hard feelings, we took advice from a black friend: “Why should only bigots get to enjoy the beach and the sunshine?” </p>
<p id="LVIDUe">The beach has been my retreat. Three hundred yards from my front door, “our” beach is home to sea turtles, shore birds, and ghost crabs. After years of stressful living in the Northeast, our retreat to Florida involves the hustle of working for ourselves, but also hours spent on the beach, reading and writing. All my life, water has been cold. At the beach, ocean water temperatures in the 80s means that I’ve learned to float in the salt water, one of the few therapies I have found effective for the chronic migraines that have followed me down from my former life. </p>
<p id="IQEJ8T">I don’t know where “being forced to evacuate” ranks on those lists of most stressful live events, but I would have to imagine that it is near the top. Right now, I hope that my house will still be standing when the sun rises on Saturday. If it is, I will be one of the lucky ones. I won’t be a resident of Aleppo or Kinshasa, forced to flee civil war and unable to go home again. For me, evacuation has reminded me, again, of my true size in the universe. The ocean that soothed my aching head on Monday would be indifferent about drowning me in my own home today. My hope is that my neighbors are not learning that lesson firsthand because they thought they were bigger than Mother Nature. </p>
<p id="QCByHM"><em>Lorraine Berry's work appears at such outlets as the Guardian, Raw Story, LitHub, and Talking Writing, where she is a contributing editor. She and her partner run </em><em><a href="http://ambersands.net">amberSands Creative</a></em><em>. F</em><em>ind</em><em> her on Twitter </em><em><a href="https://twitter.com/BerryFLW">@BerryFLW</a></em><em>. </em></p>
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<h3 id="OhjL5z">Watch: Remembering Katrina and the aftermath</h3>
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https://www.vox.com/first-person/2016/10/7/13199766/hurricane-matthew-florida-evacuateLorraine Berry2016-10-07T09:30:00-04:002016-10-07T09:30:00-04:00Hurricane Matthew is a serious threat to Florida, Georgia, South Carolina. Here's what we know.
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/V5zw2LD5boZCO701MFPtN2lEpX0=/0x429:1714x1715/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51229645/AP_16280630167264.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>This GOES East satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), shows Hurricane Matthew moving northwest of Cuba towards the Atlantic coast of southern Florida, Wednesday, Oct. 6, 2016. | (NOAA via AP)</figcaption>
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<p id="UnpRMe"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#MATTHEW">Hurricane Matthew</a> is no joke. The major Category 3 storm is poised to inflict serious damage as it buzzes along the coasts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina from Friday through Sunday:</p>
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<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">If you have been told by local officials to evacuate and that there is still time to leave, go now! Your life could depend on it! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a></p>
— Dr. Rick Knabb (@NHCDirector) <a href="https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/status/784338735580217344">October 7, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<p>The storm has already left <a target="_blank" href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-matthew-upgraded-category-millions-warned-storm-kill/story?id=42608853">300,000 people in Florida without power</a>. Authorities have told more than <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/06/us/hurricane-matthew-evacuations/">2 million residents</a> in these three states to leave their homes and take shelter. Officials <a href="http://www.wistv.com/story/33324006/scdot-begins-lane-reversals-on-i-26-for-hurricane-evacuation">even reversed lanes</a> on I-26 so that cars can drive out of Charleston faster.</p>
<p id="RJvTKh">Here’s the latest forecast of the storm's path from the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">National Hurricane Center</a>, as of 5 a.m. on Friday. There are hurricane warnings for the entire area marked in red:</p>
<p> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt="(National Hurricane Center)" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4QnePBuunw4zWnQX3s69J9GyR3M=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7236093/matthew_5am_10-7-16.0.png">
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<p class="caption">(National Hurricane Center)</p>
<p>Matthew has already rampaged through Haiti, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-matthew-haiti-idUSKCN12719D?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social" target="_blank">leaving more than 478 dead</a>. Now it’s running roughly parallel to the US coast, pummeling the Southeast with destructive winds and storm surges.</p>
<p id="r24F2j">Although Matthew is no longer expected to make landfall in Florida or Georgia, sparing the region the very worst impacts, it is still a tremendous threat. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, with hurricane-force winds (at least 75 mph) extending 60 miles out from its center.</p>
<p>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">NEW track from NHC has <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a> NOT making landfall. Great news, but 100+mph winds, rain & storm surge still likely <a href="https://t.co/kXocXDbRnH">pic.twitter.com/kXocXDbRnH</a></p>
— Micahharriswx (@micahharriswx) <a href="https://twitter.com/micahharriswx/status/784359576384643072">October 7, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<p>The National Weather Service is <a target="_blank" href="http://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mlb&wwa=all">warning people</a> along the coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina to prepare for "life-threatening situations," such as:</p>
<ul>
<li id="NwvCm1">Massive storm surges. Some regions could see severe flooding as high as 7 to 11 feet. Downtown Jacksonville is expecting 3 feet of flooding. South Carolina could see flash floods.</li>
<li id="NwvCm1">Hurricane-force winds could do structural damage to buildings and homes. Some roads and bridges could be impassable from fallen trees and other large debris.</li>
<li>Widespread power and communications outages.</li>
</ul>
<p id="Sb67D8"><span>The Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral , one of NASA’s key launching pads, is also bracing for high winds and </span><a href="http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/10/hurricane-matthew-may-strike-the-florida-space-coast-threaten-iconic-nasa-buildings/">could suffer damage</a><span>. </span></p>
<p id="aN5mha">
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">The roof just ripped off the house we are next to. That was one strong wind gust. Cape Canaveral, FL <a href="https://twitter.com/TheWeatherNetUS">@TheWeatherNetUS</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/StormhunterTWN">@StormhunterTWN</a> <a href="https://t.co/HIPUiF6ceP">pic.twitter.com/HIPUiF6ceP</a></p>
— Jaclyn Whittal (@jwhittalTWN) <a href="https://twitter.com/jwhittalTWN/status/784357484714655744">October 7, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<p>That said, this storm could have all been much, <i>much </i>worse. If Matthew had veered just a little bit to the west, it would have made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane, the first major hurricane to do so in the United States since Hurricane Wilma 11 years ago. That would have brought winds strong enough to destroy mobile homes, uproot large trees, and rip the roofs right off buildings.</p>
<p><span>The storm's exact track going forward is still uncertain, so watch the forecasts. The National Hurricane Center is </span><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">a reliable source of information</a><span> and issues updates regularly.</span></p>
<h3 id="Akw2DW">Hurricane Matthew has already devastated Haiti — killing more than 478</h3>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-i8OpT6Iu4wDcbWyCl8PNvqY4EE=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7231581/30024169472_3b268b4231_o.jpg">
<cite>(<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/30024169472/in/photolist-LYuPfR-MtWvYh-MtWvWo-MSYk8J-LYuPaF-MSYkaN-LYuPdB-MSYk6E-MSYk5h-MNAQjx-LYuP9t-MSYjYA-LYuP74-MtWvAU-MSYjUs-MtWvE1-MtWvAy-MSYjNL-MK8Hym-MK6yMN-MSZtge">NASA Goddard Flight Center</a>)</cite>
<figcaption>On October 4, 2016, Hurricane Matthew made landfall on southwestern Haiti as a Category 4 storm — the strongest storm to hit the Caribbean nation in more than 50 years.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="AeYkRO">Many Americans are just tuning in to Matthew, but this storm has been wreaking havoc in the Caribbean all week.</p>
<p id="CUZ5L7">The storm made landfall in Haiti on Tuesday, October 4, as a Category 4 storm, the strongest to hit the nation in more than 50 years. The country received several months’ worth of rainfall in a single day, causing horrific flooding:</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OZOoI-bNoKRTswqu5BxDWooolSo=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7231615/GettyImages-612874818.jpg">
<cite>(HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP/Getty Images)</cite>
<figcaption>People try to cross the overflowing La Rouyonne river in the commune of Leogane, south of Port-au-Prince, October 5, 2016.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="5kbnd2">The storm hit the country’s southwestern region particularly hard, and the damage <a target="_blank" href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article106369527.html">has been catastrophic</a> in those areas. At least 478 people <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-matthew-haiti-idUSKCN12719D?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social" target="_blank">are dead</a>, and in some towns hundreds of homes <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37570409">have been flattened</a>. Relief workers are still struggling to reach the affected areas, and this could end up being the country's biggest disaster in years:</p>
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<cite>AP Photo/Dieu Nalio Chery</cite>
<figcaption>Homes lay in ruins after the passing of Hurricane Matthew in Les Cayes, Haiti, Thursday, October 6, 2016.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="GyvlMi">The storm also slammed into Cuba on the same day, forcing <a href="http://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/962078/hurricane-prompts-evacuation-of-700-family-members-from-guantanamo-bay">700 Americans to evacuate the military base</a> in Guantanamo Bay.</p>
<p id="fwqDHn">Fortunately for Cuba, Matthew mostly rolled through sparsely populated areas in the east of the country. But those in the city of Baracoa were battered with 145 mph winds and torrential rains, and plenty of homes were destroyed:</p>
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<cite>AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa</cite>
<figcaption>A boy amd a woman walk next to remains of houses destroyed by Hurricane Matthew in Baracoa, Cuba, Wednesday, October 5, 2016.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="eP20dG">On Thursday, Matthew moved north through the Bahamas, downing trees and power lines in Nassau:</p>
<div id="uCeTRh">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bahamas?src=hash">#Bahamas</a> right now <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneMatthew?src=hash">#HurricaneMatthew</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/rcortestv2">@rcortestv2</a> ️ ️ ⚡ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Nassau?src=hash">#Nassau</a> <a href="https://t.co/Ohiunc0eyf">pic.twitter.com/Ohiunc0eyf</a></p>
— Rafael Elliot (@rairizarry) <a href="https://twitter.com/rairizarry/status/784071515713208320">October 6, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
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<p id="nSP6Aa">No deaths have yet been reported here, but the country is still assessing the damage. While the storm weakened after running over these islands, it then <a href="https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/783779275749089280">picked up strength</a> in the unusually warm Gulf Stream current before veering toward Florida.</p>
<h3 id="YM99Lk">Hurricane Matthew is unusual in a couple of respects</h3>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gmmht0_Y5oOEY5p_YJ1G1N8HSSE=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7222839/goes-matthew-animation.gif">
<figcaption>This animation of NOAA's GOES-East satellite imagery from October 2 to October 4, 2016, shows Hurricane Matthew moving through the Caribbean Sea and making landfall on October 4 over western Haiti.</figcaption>
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<p id="lqBJ9f">Matthew first formed back on September 29. And while it’s not the strongest storm ever seen, it has reached some impressive milestones, as Colorado State meteorologist Phil Klotzbach <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/05/its-not-hype-hurricane-matthew-has-been-blasting-through-records/">explains</a> over at Capital Weather Gang:</p>
<ul>
<li id="FZR6US">Matthew remained a Category 4 or 5 storm for 102 hours, longer than any other hurricane in the eastern Caribbean.</li>
<li id="vrg0fZ">At one point, Matthew intensified from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm in just 24 hours, which only two other hurricanes have done (Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Felix in 2007).</li>
<li id="yy9Cai">The storm has remained at least a Category 3 hurricane for more than five days, the longest-lived major hurricane since Hurricane Ivan in 2004.</li>
</ul>
<p id="EOj5FH">Whenever unusual hurricanes hit, people sometimes wonder about the climate change context. Chris Mooney at the Washington Post has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/10/06/heres-what-we-can-say-about-climate-change-and-hurricane-matthew/?tid=sm_tw&utm_term=.d0acb89317fe" target="_blank">a good breakdown here</a>. Many meteorologists will point out that it’s tough to disentangle all the different factors involved (there were certainly Category 4 hurricanes before we ever started burning fossil fuels). But we <em>do</em> know that the oceans are unusually warm right now, which can fuel strong hurricanes, and sea levels are higher than in the past — which certainly exacerbates storm surges and flooding.</p>
<p id="0qBWrY">Another reason Hurricane Matthew could prove more costly than previous storms is the simple fact that there are <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hurricane-hermine-doesnt-exist-yet-but-experts-are-starting-to-worry/">2</a><a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hurricane-hermine-doesnt-exist-yet-but-experts-are-starting-to-worry/"> million more people living on Florida’s coasts</a> than there were in 2005. More people and homes means more stuff for a large storm to damage. This image from Stephen Strader of Villanova University makes the point well:</p>
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<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Housing exposure change 1940-2010 <a href="https://t.co/1t3pTMLMxs">pic.twitter.com/1t3pTMLMxs</a></p>
— Stephen M. Strader (@StephenMStrader) <a href="https://twitter.com/StephenMStrader/status/784132554509185024">October 6, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<h3 id="GZtG1i">Further reading</h3>
<p id="URqipV">— The National Hurricane Center <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">is offering frequent updates</a> on Matthew. If you live anywhere near the path of this storm, you should be checking this out. Also follow them on <a href="https://twitter.com/nwsnhc?lang=en">Twitter</a>.</p>
<p id="DxBci0">— Also bookmark the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/">Capital Weather Gang</a> and <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html">Jeff Masters at Weather Underground</a>, both of which offer frequent and detailed updates.</p>
<p id="zQHyzm">— A look at how officials <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/10/6/13186712/hurricane-matthew-evacuate-now">try to persuade stubborn residents</a> to evacuate dangerous areas. One trick? Tell them if they want to stay, they should write their Social Security numbers on their arms in permanent marker, so that police can identify their corpses. Makes the threat vivid.</p>
<p>— <a href="http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/10/6/13191010/hurricanes-tropical-storms-guide" target="_blank">A very basic guide to how hurricanes form</a></p>
<p id="9Fyhxj"> </p>
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<h3>Watch: Remembering Katrina and the aftermath</h3>
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https://www.vox.com/2016/10/6/13188880/hurricane-matthew-florida-georgiaBrad Plumer2016-10-06T17:40:02-04:002016-10-06T17:40:02-04:00Why do some people never evacuate for a hurricane?
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nokU_4mmCaNRRU78d7HtC3F1Z5I=/34x0:5386x4014/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51233879/GettyImages-612993080.1475789422.jpg" />
<figcaption>JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p> “There’s a certain population that’s never going to leave.” It’s important to figure out why. </p> <p id="ZXKXXr">The forecasts for Hurricane Matthew, now a Category 4, on the East Coast for Florida are growing dire. The hurricane is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-will-deal-a-devastating-blow-to-the-florida-coast/">expected</a> to scrape along the shore beginning Thursday night with 145 mile per hour winds. And the predictions for what it will bring are grim: storm surges along the coast of 6 to 9 feet; up to 12 inches of rain. Trees and power lines will be knocked down. Houses may get destroyed or severely damaged.</p>
<p id="fdG3Dj">“This storm will kill you,” Florida Gov. Rick Scott <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/06/us/hurricane-matthew-evacuations/">warned</a> Thursday. </p>
<p id="a3tKW1">And yet we know from past storms — Katrina, Sandy, and now Matthew — some will refuse to heed the warnings and suffer the consequences. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/07/us/how-to-get-people-to-evacuate-try-fear.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur">According to</a> the New York Times, “Even after all of the best practices in emergency communications are exhausted, 5 percent of the population will most likely remain in harm’s way.” </p>
<p id="ib0VPn">Even in the face of forecasts like this.</p>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" align="center">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">If avg adult height is just < 6 ft, & there's 7-11 ft of surge, that's not something you can "ride out". <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Matthew?src=hash">#Matthew</a> <a href="https://t.co/QPFZYq18Oo">https://t.co/QPFZYq18Oo</a> <a href="https://t.co/yENCqLyocx">pic.twitter.com/yENCqLyocx</a></p>— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) <a href="https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/784095376693399552">October 6, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<p id="nd3Xfg">“There’s a certain population that’s never going to leave,” Cara Cuite, a Rutgers psychologist who heads an NOAA-sponsored <a href="http://www.seagrant.sunysb.edu/funding/pdfs/csap14/Presentations/2014/07-RutgersU.pdf">project</a> on best practices in storm communication, tells me over the phone. </p>
<p id="pDZvDJ">But no evacuation story is simple.</p>
<h3 id="QdGFE9">A few common reasons why people don’t evacuate</h3>
<p id="NC3JCC">There are myriad environmental or personal reasons why people don’t evacuate. </p>
<p id="xVCQoO">There are people who don’t leave due to disabilities — they simply can’t get out of their homes and don’t have anyone to help them. </p>
<p id="VVwkAl">(Then there could be cases of people who don’t hear the warning. But in an age when warnings can be blasted out on radio, TV, smartphones, and through old-fashioned door-to-door notifications, this is becoming less likely.)</p>
<p id="s2fATL">And then there are people who can’t stand to leave their pets behind. A 2011 poll sponsored by the ASPCA <a href="http://www.aspca.org/about-us/press-releases/aspca-urges-pet-owners-plan-ahead-disasters">found</a> that around 30 percent of dog and cat owners who live in the South (where hurricanes are more common) wouldn’t know what to do with their pets during an evacuation. </p>
<p id="3dbQX8">In 2006, Congress <a href="https://www.congress.gov/109/plaws/publ308/PLAW-109publ308.pdf">passed</a> the PETS Act, which mandates that disaster preparedness plans take into account companion animals. (Adoption of the law has been scattershot, a 2013 report <a href="https://www.wmich.edu/hhs/newsletters_journals/jssw_institutional/individual_subscribers/40.4.Austin.pdf">found</a>.) </p>
<p id="Ye7Kpm">Even people with greater means sometimes refuse to evacuate. Some won’t leave in fear of their home being damaged or looted, Cuite said. Or they’ll remember weathering a previous storm and feel confident in their ability to survive the current one. </p>
<h3 id="3WoiaW"><strong>One lesson from Katrina: Don’t be so quick to shame the people who stay</strong></h3>
<p id="cc0CKo">During Hurricane Katrina, people who refused evacuation orders were cast in a negative light: as too lazy, too uniformed, or too self-centered to make the decision to leave. The decision to stay was framed as a negative choice. But those who made the decision to stay saw it completely differently. </p>
<p id="cpzVxd">That was the conclusion of a 2009 paper in <em>Psychological Science. A </em>group of researchers at Stanford and Princeton <a href="http://www-psych.stanford.edu/~mcslab/PublicationPDFs/Why%20did%20they%20choose%20to%20stay.pdf">surveyed</a> Hurricane Katrina survivors and people who were not in the storm’s path, asking them about their perception of the people who refused evacuation orders. </p>
<p id="wcwMmD">“There’s this mismatch between the way that the event was seen from the outside and the way that the people themselves actually experienced it,” Nicole Stevens, who led the study, <a href="http://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/why_did_they_stay">said</a> in a press release when the study was published. </p>
<p id="WT55bj">The people who refused during Katrina were less financially secure than those who left, the study mentions. So they couldn’t leave as easily. But the study concludes that that doesn’t mean they <em>weren’t</em> proactive. </p>
<p id="ld6952">Their proactive measures included “connecting to others, being strong, and maintaining faith in God,” the study found. “Given the limited material resources available in working-class Black contexts, stayers more often than leavers emphasized the importance of connection to and caring for others.” </p>
<p id="GyA8sC">For these people, the thought of leaving was the selfish choice. We ought to remember that. And through it all, people generally feel like they have agency. They’re making their own decisions. </p>
<h3 id="KsDaow">
<strong>How</strong><strong> to get the truly stubborn people to leave</strong>
</h3>
<p id="1lQ2Rw">In the course of her research, Cuite has been talking to first responders, asking them what works to get people to evacuate. Some approaches used are drastic, like writing Social Security numbers on people’s arms in permanent marker (so that search and rescue can identify their bodies), having people fill out “next of kin” contact form, or telling residents rescues will not be available in their neighborhood. </p>
<p id="oxBou7">“It’s trying to make people scared,” Cuite says. “But the issue with scaring people is that you want to make sure they have the information they need to evacuate. Here’s how you evacuate, here are the best roads to take, here’s where the shelters are,” and so on. </p>
<p id="6vvmxr">(It’s important to note that it’s really difficult to do research on storm messaging. You can give people surveys about how they <em>might</em> respond, but it’s much harder to see how they actually <em>do</em> respond in an actual emergency.) </p>
<p id="wdjNNU">Overall, she stressed, evacuation warnings are really, really tough to get right. There are so many ways they can backfire. </p>
<p id="SsLK8c">For instance, take the “shadow evacuation” effect: That’s when people on the “safe” side of an evacuation border decide to leave too. This can clog up roads and other emergency response resources. And Cuite says the “crying wolf” effect is real. If emergency managers make catastrophic predictions with too much confidence, and then those forecasts change, people might not listen as carefully in the future. </p>
<p id="hEVt4i">The New York Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/07/us/how-to-get-people-to-evacuate-try-fear.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur">outlined</a> today some different strategies authorities are trying to communicate the urgency of a hurricane threat and what to do in one. For instance, authorities shouldn’t compare new storms to old storms because “making comparisons can give residents a false sense of security.” And it may seem obvious, but it is important for warnings to be as specific as possible, setting a deadline for people to leave. </p>
<p id="UQUjob">In the case of Matthew, Gov. Scott’s message has been unambiguous. </p>
<p id="0o0khW">"You have to evacuate now if you are in an evacuation zone,” Scott said Thursday. “To everyone on Florida’s east coast, if you are reluctant to evacuate, just think of all the people the hurricane has already killed. You and your family could be among these numbers if you don’t take this seriously."</p>
<p id="FjL5T1">According to CNN, more than 2 million people have been urged to evacuate from Florida up to South Carolina.</p>
<h3 id="st7S5m">How to follow Hurricane Matthew</h3>
<ul id="io3QE3"><li>Recently NOAA has been revamping its tools to better communicate storm risks. For instance, it’s a common misconception that wind speed is the most dangerous part of a hurricane. It’s not. “In fact, flooding is the major threat from tropical cyclones for people living inland,” NOAA explains on its <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/hazards.php">website</a>. </li></ul>
<p id="foockN">One new tool is NOAA’s storm surge predictor: Use it to <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge">find out</a> the risk of flood in your area. </p>
<ul>
<li id="QpjxlY">The National Hurricane Center has a page updating with the latest watches and warnings for Matthew. <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#MATTHEW">Check it out.</a>
</li>
<li id="rIPRCr">The National Hurricane Center also has a <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge">storm surge predictor</a>. If you live on the coast, you’ll want to check your risk for flooding. The NHC notes that this tool is still a prototype, and that “due to forecast uncertainty, the actual areas that experience life-threatening inundation may differ from the areas shown on this map.”</li>
<li id="WvAXrp">Follow the Capital Weather Gang’s <a href="https://twitter.com/capitalweather">Twitter account</a>. These folk tend to live-tweet storm updates.</li>
</ul>
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<h3 id="XG83kE">Watch: Remembering Katrina and the aftermath</h3>
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https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/10/6/13188336/hurricane-matthew-evacuation-florida-south-carolina-psychologyBrian Resnick