Vox - Indiana primary 2016: election results and updateshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52517/voxv.png2016-05-04T09:50:00-04:00http://www.vox.com/rss/stream/113419912016-05-04T09:50:00-04:002016-05-04T09:50:00-04:00Read Elizabeth Warren's brutal call to action against Donald Trump
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<img alt="Donald Trump." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/a50xzggiiQRVpN9ExC7sHuOKQps=/0x0:3000x2250/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49486307/527325406.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>"Donald Trump is now the leader of the Republican Party. It's real."</p>
<p>It's a sentiment that many Americans are feeling today, but it also came from a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ElizabethWarren/posts/10153739034223687" target="_blank">brutal Facebook post by Sen. Elizabeth Warren</a> on Tuesday following <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11581494/indiana-primary-results-2016-donald-trump-wins">Trump's victory in the Indiana primary</a> and <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11584234/ted-cruz-drops-out-of-presidential-race">Ted Cruz's decision to drop out</a>.</p>
<p>In the post, Warren called out Trump for his "racism, sexism, and xenophobia" and went on to call on Republicans, Democrats, and independents to unite against Trump's "toxic stew of hatred and insecurity":</p>
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<p>Donald Trump is now the leader of the Republican Party. It's real – he is one step away from the White House. Here's what else is real:</p>
<p>Trump has built his campaign on racism, sexism, and xenophobia. There's more enthusiasm for him among leaders of the KKK than leaders of the political party he now controls.</p>
<p>He incites supporters to violence, praises Putin, and, according to a columnist who recently interviewed him, is "cool with being called an authoritarian" and doesn't mind associations with history's worst dictators.</p>
<p>He attacks veterans like John McCain who were captured and puts our servicemembers at risk by cheerleading illegal torture. In a world with ISIS militants and leaders like North Korean strongman Kim Jong-Un conducting nuclear tests, he surrounds himself with a foreign policy team that has been called a "collection of charlatans," and puts out contradictory and nonsensical national security ideas one expert recently called "incoherent" and "truly bizarre."</p>
<p>What happens next will test the character for all of us – Republican, Democrat, and Independent. It will determine whether we move forward as one nation or splinter at the hands of one man's narcissism and divisiveness. I know which side I'm on, and I’m going to fight my heart out to make sure Donald Trump’s toxic stew of hatred and insecurity never reaches the White House.</p>
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<p>The polls showed this coming for a year, but many pundits and conservatives didn't want to believe Trump could really become the Republican nominee. Now that it's almost certain, the possibility of a President Trump is hitting a little too close to home for many — and Warren captures that concern.</p>
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<h3>Watch: Trump compliments Cruz in victory speech</h3>
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https://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11585412/elizabeth-warren-donald-trump-indiana-primaryGerman Lopez2016-05-04T09:00:02-04:002016-05-04T09:00:02-04:00Hillary Clinton has regained her clear lead over Bernie Sanders in national polls
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<img alt="Hillary Clinton's state wins appear to have pushed up her polling among Democratic voters." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WuhL9hr5ECW-rRR3yuLYvmrvohk=/0x0:3000x2250/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49485297/GettyImages-526926306.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Hillary Clinton's state wins appear to have pushed up her polling among Democratic voters. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Hillary Clinton seems to have regained her dominance over Bernie Sanders after a long and contentious primary battle. And she has the polls to show it.</p>
<p>Back in mid-April, something big appeared to be happening in the Democratic race: Even as Clinton was amassing an insurmountable delegate lead in the state contests, Sanders was pulling neck and neck with her in<a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/4/8/11392780/bernie-sanders-polling"> head-to-head polling</a> among Democratic voters.</p>
<p>But Clinton has since trended back upward. Several new national polls have since found her pulling ahead of Sanders, erasing earlier signs that Sanders was becoming the more popular figure among Democrats.</p>
<p>This chart comes from <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary">the Huffington Post polling average</a>:</p>
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<figcaption>The Huffington Post's polling average has Hillary Clinton regaining her national lead over Bernie Sanders.</figcaption>
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<p>And this one comes from the <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls">RealClearPolitics polling average</a>:</p>
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<p>The trend line is unambiguous: As it becomes increasingly clear Clinton will be the nominee, she's also improved her standing among Democratic voters.</p>
<h3>Bernie Sanders's national polling surge matches his string of state victories</h3>
<p>There's at least one possible explanation political scientists have for the roller coaster ups and downs of Sanders's national polling numbers: Voters like winners.</p>
<p>Usually, people think of the candidates' national popularity as driving how well they do in each state. But this data suggests that the effect could work both ways: By winning states already disposed to vote for them, the candidates can also improve their national popularity.</p>
<p>On April 5, Bernie scored a big 13-point victory over Clinton in Wisconsin. It was the exclamation point on a hot streak, begun on March 22, where he won five of six contests. Sanders added another win in Wyoming on April 9 to go six for seven.</p>
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<cite>(<a href="http://www.gettyimages.com/license/508468060">Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a>)</cite>
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<p>Around this time, Sanders's national polling numbers skyrocketed. On April 8, three days after Wisconsin, the Huffington Post put the Democratic candidates just two points apart. By April 11, RealClearPolitics' polling average said Clinton had just a one-point lead on Sanders. Three polls in mid-April put Sanders actually beating Clinton among Democrats.</p>
<p>Then the calendar shifted to terrain favorable to Clinton. Clinton won a landslide in New York on April 19, and then won four of five states on April 26.</p>
<p>Every national poll of Democrats taken since New York has Clinton ahead by at least four points. All four polls taken since Clinton's April 26 sweep has her ahead by at least nine points, according to the Huffington Post's polling average.</p>
<h3>Political scientists: momentum is a real thing</h3>
<p>On the one hand, this seems like a straightforward story: Candidates do better in national polls when they're winning states.</p>
<p>"We do have evidence that there is such a thing as momentum. Altering perceptions of electability among voters can be really persuasive," said Adam Seth Levine, a political scientist at Cornell University.</p>
<p>That's in part because voters appear to make their decisions based on relatively little information about their candidate, said Jan Leighley, a political scientist at American University, in an interview earlier in the election cycle.</p>
<p>"If you don't have much water in the bucket, another drip matters a lot," she said. "Those who were disinterested, or minimally interested, their heuristic is: Clinton keeps winning."</p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/5/4/11582940/hillary-clinton-sanders-national-pollingJeff Stein2016-05-04T07:00:05-04:002016-05-04T07:00:05-04:00Conservative support for Cruz shows #NeverTrump was never about opposing bigotry
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<img alt="GOP Presidential candidate, Sen. Ted Cruz Holds Indiana Primary Night Gathering" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QWrYGPGvbsqDGi_FOl01CCsObiA=/0x100:3000x2350/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49490199/527830668.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>On Tuesday night, as Ted Cruz dropped out and Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, conservatives elites could hardly contain their complete and utter despair:</p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.</p>
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<p>— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) <a href="https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/727604522156228608">May 3, 2016</a></p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">This must feel like the moment after the Roundheads decapitated Charles I. "Holy sh*t did we just do that???"</p>
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<p>— Jay Cost (@JayCostTWS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JayCostTWS/status/727660761229692929">May 4, 2016</a></p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">I don’t want to congratulate Hillary Clinton on winning the Presidency tonight, but she just did.</p>
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<p>— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) <a href="https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/727634645404270596">May 3, 2016</a></p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">America, July 4, 1776 - May 3, 2016.</p>
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<p>— Philip Klein (@philipaklein) <a href="https://twitter.com/philipaklein/status/727634781278711808">May 3, 2016</a></p>
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<p>To non-conservatives and moderates, this might look like serious conservatives rejecting partisanship in order to help stop a truly dangerous nominee, much as many conservative elites abandoned and critiqued the Bush administration late in its second term.</p>
<p>That is not what is happening. If that were the story, the freakout would've come much earlier, when the race narrowed to Trump and Cruz. You would've seen a mass mobilization behind John Kasich, and pledges to not just #NeverTrump but #NeverCruz.</p>
<p>Though this is not often noted in press coverage, Ted Cruz is <em>also</em> an unacceptably bigoted candidate. He also wants to ban Muslim refugees from entering the United States. He also wants to build a wall on the Mexican border. And he's much more bigoted than Trump when it comes to trans people.</p>
<p>If #NeverTrump were about opposing Trump's demagoguery, it should've, by the same principles, dubbed Cruz unacceptable. The fact that they didn't says something telling about what is, and is not, a deal breaker for conservative elites. It suggests that what really bothers them about Trump isn't his racist rhetoric, but his deviations from Republican economic orthodoxy, or his poor general election prospects. These, suffice it to say, are not the things about Trump that make him such a terrifying figure in American politics.</p>
<h3>Ted Cruz is a bigot, just like Donald Trump</h3>
<p>I don't know who would win a bigot-off between Cruz and Trump, or by what margin, but what matters is this: By any reasonable definition, both are far too bigoted to be even remotely acceptable nominees for a major political party.</p>
<p>Ted Cruz, after all, said this:</p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Cruz: "We need to empower law enforcement to patrol and secure Muslim neighborhoods before they become radicalized." <a href="https://t.co/7iZa49l4gq">pic.twitter.com/7iZa49l4gq</a></p>
— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) <a href="https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/712299502946877440">March 22, 2016</a>
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<p>This plan, at least in its <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/3/24/11298634/ted-cruz-muslim-islamophobia">original form</a>, clearly violates the First Amendment, and would <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/3/22/11285626/ted-cruz-muslim-communities-target">almost certainly backfire</a> and fail to prevent any terrorist attacks. But whatever its efficacy, one thing is clear: it personally targets and victimizes a vulnerable ethnoreligious minority group. It is a bigoted proposal.</p>
<p>Then there are Cruz's comments on Muslim refugees. Just like Donald Trump, he has a very clear position: He wants them out of the United States.</p>
<p>"President Obama and Hillary Clinton’s idea that we should bring tens of thousands of Syrian Muslim refugees to America — it is nothing less than lunacy," he <a href="http://nation.foxnews.com/2015/11/15/cruz-bringing-tens-thousands-syrian-refugees-u-s-nothing-less-lunacy">declared</a> in November. But Christians? <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/amy-davidson/ted-cruzs-religious-test-for-syrian-refugees">Totally fine</a>: "On the other hand, <em>Christians </em>who are being targeted for genocide, for persecution, <em>Christians</em> who are being beheaded or crucified, we should be providing safe haven to them. But President Obama refuses to do that."</p>
<p>To be very clear, Cruz is proposing that the US explicitly discriminate against Muslim refugees on the basis of their religion and nothing more. When pressed on this point by CNN's Dana Bash, he didn't budge — except to say that <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/17/politics/ted-cruz-refugees-syria/">he might support screening the Christians to make sure they're not Muslims hiding as Christians</a>.</p>
<p>Then there's the fact that Cruz takes advice from <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/3/17/11253592/ted-cruz-frank-gaffney-foreign-policy">notorious anti-Muslim bigot Frank Gaffney</a>, who has said that President Obama "not only identifies with Muslims, but actually may still be one himself" and has accused everyone from Hillary Clinton aide Huma Abedin to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/frank-gaffney_n_4905219.html">Grover Norquist</a> of being part of Muslim Brotherhood schemes to infiltrate the US government. Gaffney is currently <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/03/national-rifle-association-norquist-gaffney-recall">spearheading an effort to push Norquist off the National Rifle Association's board of directors</a> because of his role "as an agent of influence for assorted Islamic supremacists."</p>
<p>Another Cruz adviser (who's also involved in the anti-Norquist effort) is retired Lt. Gen. William "Jerry" Boykin, who <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/10/17/boykin.apology/index.html">first came to fame in 2003</a> when he said of a Muslim warlord in Somalia, "I knew that my God was a real God, and his was an idol." He also said that Islamists hate America "because we're a Christian nation, because our foundation and roots are Judeo-Christian and the enemy is a guy named Satan." Boykin has not exactly moderated with age:</p>
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<p dir="ltr" lang="en">ADL: Cruz adviser Gen. Boykin asserted that Obama supports al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood is poised to take over US <a href="https://t.co/RHx5R9IyKv">https://t.co/RHx5R9IyKv</a></p>
— Chemi Shalev (@ChemiShalev) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChemiShalev/status/712379270878855169">March 22, 2016</a>
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<p>It's not just Muslims, though. Cruz was the <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11583056/indiana-primary-ted-cruz-transgender-bathrooms">premier anti-trans bigot in the GOP field</a> as well. He made <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/30/us/politics/indiana-republican-transgender-rights-bathroom.html?_r=0">trans bathroom access</a> a key issue in the Indiana primary, telling crowds, "If the law says that any man, if he chooses, can enter a women's restroom, a little girls' restroom, and stay there, and he cannot be removed because he simply says at that moment he feels like a woman, you're opening the door for predators." He attacked <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/4/21/11477612/donald-trump-transgender-bathrooms-lgbtq">Trump for (correctly) condemning laws</a> like North Carolina's law that forces trans people to use the opposite gender's bathrooms as "discriminatory."</p>
<p>"Should a grown man pretending to be a woman be allowed to use the women's restroom? The same restroom used by your daughter? Your wife? Donald Trump thinks so," a Cruz attack ad blared:</p>
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<p><br>The idea that letting trans people use the bathroom of their gender leads to sexual assault is a <a href="http://www.vox.com/cards/transgender-myths-fiction-facts/transgender-bathroom-bills">pernicious, persistent myth</a>, and one that Cruz actively participated in spreading.</p>
<h3>What is #NeverTrump about, then?</h3>
<p>And yet elite conservative #NeverTrumpers got on board with Cruz. <a href="http://theresurgent.com/ted-cruz-for-president-2/">Erick Erickson endorsed him</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/03/17/lindsey-graham-backs-ted-cruz-despite-his-reservations/?partner=IFTTT&_r=0">Lindsey Graham endorsed him</a>, <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/3/11/11208266/national-review-ted-cruz">National Review endorsed him</a>, and on and on and on. The despair and panic of Tuesday night was a direct result of him dropping out. When Trump calls for a ban on Muslims entering the US, his conservative critics pounced; when Cruz wanted to ban Muslim refugees too, it didn't hurt him at all.</p>
<p>So what's really driving #NeverTrump, then? There are a few options. The most cynical is that Trump is just a really historically bad candidate who could alienate Latino voters from the Republican party for years or decades, and Republican elites want to avoid that. Maybe they're sincerely concerned by his isolation-ish foreign policy views or his trade protectionism or his support for Social Security and Medicare. Maybe they just don't think the party can control him.</p>
<p>All of this implies, though, that a hypothetical Trump who toed the party line on trade and entitlements and foreign policy, who stood a chance in the general election, and who was more plugged in to the party apparatus would be totally acceptable to the #NeverTrumpers, in spite of his obvious and dangerous bigotry.</p>
<p>That's disturbing. It suggests that #NeverTrumpers listen to Trump's anti-Muslim, anti-Latino invective and think, "This guy is unacceptable because he doesn't want to cut Medicare."</p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/5/4/11585258/trump-nevertrump-cruz-bigotryDylan Matthews2016-05-04T00:29:02-04:002016-05-04T00:29:02-04:00Trump's victory proves Republican voters want resentful nationalism, not principled conservatism
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<img alt="Donald Trump Campaigns In Indiana Ahead Of State Primary" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/NF0A5UvSZT8R100EDFTXFSdqEQE=/0x8:3000x2258/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49490163/527325384.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p><b>1) </b>On Tuesday night, the Republican Party confirmed the worst suspicions liberals had of it. Five years ago, it would have sounded like a partisan slur to say the GOP harbored enough racial resentment, xenophobia, anti-intellectualism, anti-elitism, and latent authoritarianism to nominate someone like Donald Trump. But it was true.</p>
<p><b>2) </b>Credit where it's due. The Republican Party is what congressional scholars Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/lets-just-say-it-the-republicans-are-the-problem/2012/04/27/gIQAxCVUlT_story.html">said it is</a>: "ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition." In case you are skeptical of that final charge, recall that Trump began his rise in the Republican Party as a champion of the birther movement.</p>
<p><b>3) </b>Donald Trump tends to trail Hillary Clinton by about 10 points in general election polls — a landslide in contemporary American politics. "There have been 10-point shifts over the general election season <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1988/05/17/us/poll-shows-dukakis-leads-bush-many-reagan-backers-shift-sides.html?pagewanted=all">before</a>, even if it's uncommon," <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/04/upshot/trump-would-have-uphill-battle-against-clinton.html?action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0">writes</a> Nate Cohn, the New York Times's resident polling wonk. "But there isn't much of a precedent for huge swings in races with candidates as well known as Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton. A majority of Americans may not like her, but they say they're <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/22/us/politics/republican-democratic-voters-poll.html">scared</a> of him."</p>
<p><b>4) </b>The result is Hillary Clinton is a weak candidate in a commanding position. Her favorability numbers trail far behind what Barack Obama enjoyed at the outset of the 2008 election — he hovered around 55 percent, while she barely clears 40 percent — but her potential vote share far exceeds anything he could plausibly have hoped for. It is possible Trump could lose in a Goldwater-like landslide in a way that was not possible for John McCain.</p>
<p><b>5) </b>But making that landslide real requires Clinton to strike a difficult balance. Like Trump, she is a polarizing, unpopular figure (though less so than he is). She needs to use Trump to unite her coalition without letting that effort unite the Republican coalition against her. That points toward a campaign focused on Trump's basic fitness for office rather than the policy differences between the two candidates. More Republicans and independents might fear Trump's judgment than disagree with his policies.</p>
<p><b>6) </b>One thing Clinton need not worry about is Democratic turnout. To see why, <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11585412/elizabeth-warren-donald-trump-indiana-primary">read</a> Tuesday's Facebook post from Sen. Elizabeth Warren. "Trump has built his campaign on racism, sexism, and xenophobia. There's more enthusiasm for him among leaders of the KKK than leaders of the political party he now controls. … I’m going to fight my heart out to make sure Donald Trump's toxic stew of hatred and insecurity never reaches the White House."</p>
<p><b>7) </b>Could Trump win? Sure. Anything can happen in American politics. But those pointing to Trump's victory in the GOP primary as evidence of his potency in the general election are misguided. The electorates are very different, as are the underlying dynamics of the races. Behaviors that have been successful for Trump in recent months will turn off a general electorate — a reality you already see reflected in Trump's poll numbers. The behavior that attracts the most hardcore of Republican votes turns off the median voter.</p>
<p><b>8) </b>In theory, Trump could run to the center. In practice, he cannot. His comments cannot be stricken from the record, and the impressions Americans have formed of him in recent months will not be easily unwound. But more troublesome for Trump is that he, like all of us, is fundamentally limited by his own personality. His brashness, his offensiveness, his immaturity — none of this is an act.</p>
<p>A politician with more superego couldn't retweet white supremacists or accuse their challenger's father of <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11580740/ted-cruz-lee-harvey-oswald-donald-trump" target="_blank">being linked to the assassination</a> of John F. Kennedy. The reason Trump could run the campaign he's run is that he's all id. The reason he will not suddenly be able to reinvent himself as a sober, comforting statesman is that he's all id. What was adaptive for Trump in the primary will prove maladaptive in the general, but there's little he'll be able to do about it.</p>
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<p>9) Even if Trump loses, he has exposed a Republican Party many in the GOP will wish had stayed hidden. The core truth he has laid bare is that Republican voters are powered by a resentful nationalism more than a principled conservatism. "Republican politics boils down to ethno-nationalistic passions ungoverned by reason," <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/05/trump-has-won-and-the-republican-party-is-broken.html">writes</a> Jonathan Chait. "Once a figure has been accepted as a friendly member of their tribe, there is no level of absurdity to which he can stoop that would discredit him."</p>
<p><b>10)</b> Many Republicans see this, and they are ashamed by it. But #NeverTrump will fail, and for a simple reason: There is no alternative vehicle for conservatism besides the Republican Party. Ultimately, Donald Trump professes allegiance to conservative policies, while Hillary Clinton is clearly and indisputably a liberal. The question isn't so much whether conservatives support Trump in this election, but how — with more time, more reflection, and more planning — they attempt to recapture their party for future elections.</p>
<p><b>11)</b> Meanwhile, Trump offers an opportunity to Democrats: If they can manage to hold their left flank while attracting a few percentage points' worth of disgusted independents and moderate Republicans, they can consign the GOP to minority status for the foreseeable future — much as happened to the California Republican Party after Pete Wilson. The difficulty for Democrats is that such a strategy requires ideological and tonal moderation — even as the weakness of Republicans emboldens liberal groups to demand more ambitious policy and the extremism of the Trumpism calls forth an angry, fearful response from the Democratic base.</p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/5/4/11586360/donald-trump-conservatismEzra Klein2016-05-03T23:15:00-04:002016-05-03T23:15:00-04:00Ted Cruz dropped out. Twitter had a lot of jokes.
<figure>
<img alt="Ted Cruz." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gDtyXLMDSZlYgp_lh3jR-nysLkg=/0x0:3000x2250/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49485825/527806072.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11584234/ted-cruz-drops-out-of-presidential-race">Ted Cruz dropped out of the presidential race</a>. After a year of denial, the race looks all but over — and <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11580772/indiana-results-trump">Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee</a>.</p>
<p>For Twitter, these types of situations are a time for jokes. On Tuesday night, pundits and political watchers around the country lived up to the calling.</p>
<p>Some put a twist on Trump's nickname for Cruz, Lyin' Ted:</p>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Goodbye, Lion Ted <a href="https://t.co/7zAj8qn5bn">pic.twitter.com/7zAj8qn5bn</a></p>
— Brandon Wall (@Walldo) <a href="https://twitter.com/Walldo/status/727660023145365504">May 4, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p>Others mocked Cruz's decision to pick a running mate in a desperate bid to revive his campaign:</p>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">So Carly Fiorina joined the campaign just in time to lay everyone off?</p>
— Kevin Robillard (@PoliticoKevin) <a href="https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/727656924670533636">May 4, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">I have the same odds of becoming Vice President that Carly Fiorina does</p>
— Dylan Matthews (@dylanmatt) <a href="https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/727654956946296832">May 4, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p>A few referenced <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/3/8/11179492/ted-cruz-zodiac-killer">Cruz's secret past as the Zodiac killer</a>:</p>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">I wonder what he's going to do next. <a href="https://t.co/n1mrpBFZ8h">pic.twitter.com/n1mrpBFZ8h</a></p>
— Sam Stryker (@sbstryker) <a href="https://twitter.com/sbstryker/status/727658556233670657">May 4, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">In fairness, Ted Cruz did well for a known serial killer.</p>
— German Lopez (@germanrlopez) <a href="https://twitter.com/germanrlopez/status/727657742941495296">May 4, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p>Many just felt disappointment:</p>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Best, deepest Republican field in recent memory....wiped out one-by-one by the host of Celebrity Apprentice.</p>
— David Rutz (@DavidRutz) <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidRutz/status/727657314971353088">May 4, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Shouldn't <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TedCruz?src=hash">#TedCruz</a> have been forced to carry his unviable campaign to term?</p>
— Full Frontal (@FullFrontalSamB) <a href="https://twitter.com/FullFrontalSamB/status/727673061173014528">May 4, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
</div>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Unbelievable. I trusted Cruz when he said he'd win in November. Turns out he was Lyin' Ted after all.</p>
— Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) <a href="https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/727657052705837056">May 4, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p>Yet for some, the news was a relief:</p>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">On the upside, I don't have to defend Ted Fucking Cruz any longer.</p>
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/727658417326796800">May 4, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p>Goodbye, Ted Cruz:</p>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ted Cruz ends campaign by accidentally hitting, elbowing his wife in the face <a href="https://t.co/epO1tzKgTT">pic.twitter.com/epO1tzKgTT</a></p>
— Jon Swaine (@jonswaine) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonswaine/status/727661010341990400">May 4, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<hr>
<h3>Watch: Donald Trump on Ted Cruz</h3>
<div class="volume-video" id="volume-placement-6821" data-volume-placement="article" data-analytics-placement="article:middle" data-volume-id="8174" data-volume-uuid="7cf8fb0b2" data-analytics-label="Trump compliments Cruz in victory speech | 8174" data-analytics-action="volume:view:article:middle" data-analytics-viewport="video"></div>
https://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11585062/indiana-primary-cruz-trump-twitter-jokesGerman Lopez2016-05-03T21:29:27-04:002016-05-03T21:29:27-04:003 winners and 2 losers from the Indiana primary
<figure>
<img alt="Donald Trump Campaigns In Indiana Ahead Of State Primary" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3he_ZXyaes_bRqoKvHoEAtQR5HE=/7x0:2994x2240/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49485899/527324320.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Indiana primary holds a special place in the hearts of presidential primary obsessives. In 1968, after Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated, Robert F. Kennedy <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy%27s_speech_on_the_assassination_of_Martin_Luther_King,_Jr.">famously delivered a speech in Indianapolis</a>, where he was campaigning, calling for nonviolence and reconciliation. Kennedy <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/how-bobby-kennedy-won-68-indiana-primary-207076">won the state</a> by double digits a month later.</p>
<p>That's … nothing like the 2016 primary. This time there was less lofty speechifying about the future of racial justice in America and a lot more talking about <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11578864/ted-cruz-donald-trump-liar">Donald Trump's experience with venereal disease</a>. But Indiana was still a crucial turning point in the race, firmly establishing each party's nominee and all but eliminating the path to victory for their rivals — so much so that one of them realized it and dropped out.</p>
<p>Here's who finished the night up and who finished behind.</p>
<h3>Winner: Donald Trump</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Donald Trump Campaigns In Indiana Ahead Of State Primary" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BgjwNkVgG393Nes5t2vRSkulDoQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6434403/527324324.jpg">
<cite>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Well, that was easy.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It's over:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/znwCJA7iL6xaG0H91ECPPKI_oGU=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6434773/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-03%20at%209.03.35%20PM.png">
<figcaption>RNC chair Reince Priebus's original tweet, typo and all.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Republican primaries and caucuses after tonight have only 445 delegates between them. If Donald Trump winds up winning every congressional district and getting all of Indiana's 57 delegates, he'll be at 1,049. To make it to 1,237 — the magic number he needs to win the nomination on the first ballot — he'll only need to win 188 delegates, or a mere 43 percent of those remaining.</p>
<p>Even if Ted Cruz had stayed in the race, that wouldn't have been hard at all. If Connecticut, New York, Delaware, and Pennsylvania are any indication, he'll win New Jersey handily, and New Jersey is winner-take-all. So that's 51 votes right there. And then there's California, by far the biggest prize remaining. It hands out three delegates for the winner of each of its 53 congressional districts, plus 10 delegates for winning statewide. That leads to some weird phenomena, like the Republican faculty members of UC Berkeley (all seven of them) effectively getting their own set of delegates over in CA-13.</p>
<p>But Trump is winning the state by a huge margin — <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-california-republican-presidential-primary">28 points</a> in the HuffPost Pollster average — and a recent poll doing a breakdown across 10 regions found that <a href="http://capitolweekly.net/ca120-california-gop-primary/">Trump was winning every single one</a>. Even if Trump won only 42 of the 53 districts, along with the state as a whole and New Jersey, that'd be enough to lock up the nomination right there. And there are a bunch of other states he could gain delegates in along the way.</p>
<p>And then Ted Cruz dropped out. Even if John Kasich sticks it out, that makes the odds of Trump losing a delegate majority all but insurmountable. It'd take a truly bizarre surge in support for a candidate no one likes to stop him. And so even Reince Priebus is accepting the campaign is over.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11569754/donald-trump-is-going-to-win">Donald Trump is the Republican nominee</a>. You can whine about it, you can bemoan it, but that's the way it is. It'll become official in a month, but this was the night it became inevitable. <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11580772/indiana-results-trump">Only Hillary Clinton can stop him now</a>.</p>
<h4>Video: Donald Trump compliments Ted Cruz during his victory speech</h4>
<div data-analytics-viewport="video" data-analytics-action="volume:view:article:middle" data-analytics-label="Trump compliments Cruz in victory speech | 8174" data-volume-uuid="7cf8fb0b2" data-volume-id="8174" data-analytics-placement="article:middle" data-volume-placement="article" id="volume-placement-4698" class="volume-video"></div>
<h3></h3>
<h3>Winner: Hillary Clinton</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton Campaigns In Indiana" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OYuBUpKzuEpo3DUPse7yE2r0KWc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6434405/526926306.jpg">
<cite>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Can't we just end this yet?</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yeah, she lost Indiana. But Clinton can get away with some mediocre showings in late primaries and still win the nomination. Going into tonight, Clinton had 1,664 delegates to Bernie Sanders's 1,371. You need 2,026 for a majority of pledged delegates, and there are 1,016 left. So Clinton just needed 36 percent of remaining delegates to win a pledged delegate majority. Sanders needed 65 percent. Every contest where he gets less than that, he loses.</p>
<p>And he definitely got less than that in Indiana. As of this writing, with the race just called, Sanders is up 52.2 percent to 47.8 percent. That's about 13 points short of where he needs to be. It's a nice upset (Clinton was <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-indiana-democratic-presidential-primary">ahead by 8 points in polling</a>) but upsets aren't worth anything unless they come with a huge delegate majority. And in all likelihood, Indiana's delegates will be split roughly down the middle.</p>
<p>It's still metaphysically possible for Sanders to win the nomination. But assuming he gets, say, 43 delegates out of 83 tonight, he'll still need 66 percent of delegates going forward. And that means getting a landslide in California, by far the biggest contest remaining. Currently, Clinton is <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-california-democratic-presidential-primary">beating him there by 10 points</a>; supposing that he's underestimated by 13 points, as he was in Indiana, that's still only a 3-point victory, nowhere near enough for a pledged delegate majority.</p>
<p>The race is over. The general election will be Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump.</p>
<h3>Winner: National Republican Senatorial Committee</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="But Getty doesn't have anything, so" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8-Jm4gCHuMsAv87UkJoZBYZytJI=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6434419/R5-ToddsFavorites.jpg">
<cite><a href="http://www.toddyoung.org/">Friends of Todd Young, Inc.</a></cite>
<figcaption>Indiana Senate candidate Todd Young has some weird campaign art.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This was really, really overshadowed by the presidential race, but there was also a Senate primary in Indiana! It pitted Rep. Marlin Stutzman — one of the most stalwart conservatives in the House and a member of the Freedom Caucus, who was endorsed by <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/club-for-growth-backs-marlin-stutzman-in-second-play-for-indiana-senate-win/article/2569288">Club for Growth</a> — against Rep. Todd Young, a more establishment-friendly pick.</p>
<p>The NRSC didn't officially endorse, but it did <a href="http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/national-republicans-side-indianas-todd-young-fight-ballot-access">weigh in on Young's behalf in a dispute over ballot access signatures</a>, and he's clearly the better candidate if Republicans want to keep control of the Senate. <a href="http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/25/poll-young-up-big-indianas-us-senate-race/83514864/">Recent polling</a> has him beating former Rep. Baron Hill, the Democratic nominee, 48 to 30; Stutzman only led by 39 to 36, indicating that Hill could've potentially gained the seat.</p>
<p>Now that <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article75272452.html">Young has won</a>, the seat is likely safe for Republicans, which ought to have NRSC chair Roger Wicker breathing a sigh of relief.</p>
<h3>Loser: #NeverTrump</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Rally And March Held On May Day In Los Angeles" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8hwNRR_mC_oKcvGDjCr4KE8cdQU=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6434455/527075848.jpg">
<cite>David McNew/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Bad day for this sign.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It just feels too cruel to put Ted Cruz's sad, dropped-out face here.</p>
<p>And in any case, he was <em>never</em> going to win. He was always on a kamikaze mission on behalf of the #NeverTrump movement, to deny Trump a delegate convention and force a contested convention that would be highly unlikely to pick Cruz, a candidate the Republican electorate considered <em>and rejected</em>.</p>
<p>That mission is over. The suicide pilot is dead, but the plane missed the aircraft carrier. Cruz didn't just fail, #NeverTrump as a whole failed.</p>
<p>You saw this in the straight-up despair evident among prominent anti-Trump conservatives Tuesday night:</p>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.</p>
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) <a href="https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/727604522156228608">May 3, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">This must feel like the moment after the Roundheads decapitated Charles I. "Holy sh*t did we just do that???"</p>
— Jay Cost (@JayCostTWS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JayCostTWS/status/727660761229692929">May 4, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">I don’t want to congratulate Hillary Clinton on winning the Presidency tonight, but she just did.</p>
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) <a href="https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/727634645404270596">May 3, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ImWithHer?src=hash">#ImWithHer</a></p>
— Ben Howe (@BenHowe) <a href="https://twitter.com/BenHowe/status/727634624067870720">May 3, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p>Some were even declaring that the nomination of a racist demagogue marked the end of America, a strange claim to make about a country that was an apartheid state for the first 200 or so years of its existence:</p>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">America, July 4, 1776 - May 3, 2016.</p>
— Philip Klein (@philipaklein) <a href="https://twitter.com/philipaklein/status/727634781278711808">May 3, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p>So now it's decision time. Do conservatives vote for Clinton, like RedState's Ben Howe? Do they vote for Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson? Do they try to throw together another third-party candidacy, despite the fact that it's <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Filing_deadlines_and_signature_requirements_for_independent_presidential_candidates,_2016">basically too late to get on the Texas ballot</a>? Or do they suck it up and admit that Trump's anti-Hispanic, anti-Muslim demagoguery is the natural extension of the past 20 years of GOP rhetoric on immigration and national security, that <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/12/22/10649210/donald-trump-tax-tpc">his tax plan</a> is the kind of giant supply-side cut that Republicans since Reagan have backed, and that he's overall a pretty good exemplar of the same values expressed by Ted Cruz?</p>
<p>My money is that most will opt for the latter. But so many have come out so definitively against Trump, even as the GOP nominee, that pivoting that way will be tough.</p>
<h3>Loser: Bernie Sanders</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Bernie Sanders Campaigns In Indiana On Day Of State's Primary" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nCwzhAZgIfCsdsK71gksIrOssmc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6434461/527655684.jpg">
<cite>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Errghhh.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Democratic race isn't as officially over as the GOP one, but it's effectively sealed up all the same. Short of totally unexpected, unprecedented 66-point landslides in every future contest, Sanders would need a massive exodus of superdelegates to his side to have a shot at the nomination. Given that nearly every superdelegate backs Clinton — and Sanders almost certainly won't have the pledged delegate majority or popular vote majority necessary to argue they're <em>obligated</em> to switch to backing him — that's a notion so farcical as to be not worth seriously considering.</p>
<p>Don't expect Sanders to actually drop out until after California. A lot of upcoming contests — West Virginia, Oregon, Kentucky — seem like places he could conceivably do fairly well, enabling him to keep fundraising, registering voters, and maintaining supporter enthusiasm, even if he wins by much worse than he should. But expect his campaign to start making nods to reconciliation, and preparing for his inevitable convention speech enthusiastically backing Clinton and calling for party unity.</p>
<hr>
<h3>Watch: Ted Cruz drops out of the race</h3>
<div data-analytics-viewport="video" data-analytics-action="volume:view:article:middle" data-analytics-label="Cruz drops out of race | 8173" data-volume-uuid="1562ce5d2" data-volume-id="8173" data-analytics-placement="article:middle" data-volume-placement="article" id="volume-placement-2309" class="volume-video"></div>
https://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11580496/winners-losers-indiana-primary-trump-cruz-clinton-sandersDylan Matthews2016-05-03T21:17:17-04:002016-05-03T21:17:17-04:00Bernie Sanders wins Indiana, but doesn't get landslide he needed
<figure>
<img alt="Bernie Sanders won Indiana tonight — but not by enough to make a difference in the race." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mPXhgMA-7VzxPtRU0DSYUiYavBM=/0x0:3000x2250/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49485673/GettyImages-527316026.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Bernie Sanders won Indiana tonight — but not by enough to make a difference in the race. | Scott Olson/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bernie Sanders won the Indiana Democratic primary on Tuesday night, giving his campaign a moral boost if not an actual path to the Democratic nomination.</p>
<p>The state was called at around 9:15 pm Eastern for Sanders by <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN/status/727667817374453760" target="_blank">CNN</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/727666822565236737" target="_blank">NBC News</a>.</p>
<p>Votes are still being counted, but the early results have Hillary Clinton pulling in around 45 percent of the vote. That means, because of the Democrats' proportional allocation rules, Sanders and Clinton are likely to essentially split Indiana's 92 delegates — meaning the victory won't help Sanders cut into Clinton's big delegate lead.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Either way, Clinton and Sanders will roughly split the delegates and it will be vastly short of Sanders needs. He falls further behind.</p>
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) <a href="https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/727647606424358912">May 3, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
</p>
<h3>Hillary Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee</h3>
<p>As Vox's Matt Yglesias <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/4/29/11520016/the-state-of-the-democratic-race">explained over the weekend</a>, the Democratic primary fight has been effectively over for some time. Hillary Clinton is going to be the nominee.</p>
<p>There's a simple reason for this: Clinton has received many millions more votes than Sanders has at this point in the race, and she therefore has many more of the "pledged" delegates who determine the nominee at the Democratic convention.</p>
<p>Going into tonight, Clinton had a delegate lead of 1,664 to 1,371 — not including the superdelegates who have long been in her corner.</p>
<p>Sanders needs to win 66 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to claim a majority of them. To pull that off, Sanders had to win all of the remaining states by more than he's won in any state but his home state of Vermont, according to Yglesias.</p>
<p>That not going to happen, especially given that Sanders is down in polling in several of the biggest states ahead, like California and New Jersey. Not winning Indiana by a big margin thus puts Sanders even further behind his target to catch up with Clinton.</p>
<h3>The new stakes in the race: Can Sanders continue to pull the party in his direction?</h3>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="sanders" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2hVSwNfJ-RTrlQYx5M0fTuJqQfI=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/5991387/sanders-iowa-victory.jpg">
<cite><a href="http://www.gettyimages.com/license/507941696">Joshua Lott/Getty Images</a></cite>
</figure>
<p>All of this doesn't mean, however, there aren't valuable objectives for Sanders and his supporters to try to fight for in the remaining states.</p>
<p>Those goals include pulling the party to his positions, showing the breadth of his support across the country, and gaining leverage over the Democratic establishment ahead of the convention in July.</p>
<p>By winning Indiana, Sanders will probably bolster his ability to maintain the fundraising and staffing that have made his insurgency impossible — complicating Clinton's efforts to wrap up the primary as soon as possible.</p>
<p>"I think there may be a possibility that Clinton could get Sanders out before the end of this process, and winning a state like Indiana may be helpful as she tries to nudge him out," said Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, in an interview on Tuesday afternoon.</p>
<p>The state was expected to be in Clinton's corner, with Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight <a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-democratic/">giving</a> Clinton a 91 percent chance of winning the state ahead of the election. Polling from RealClearPolitics' polling average <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/in/indiana_democratic_presidential_primary-5807.html">gave</a> Clinton a 7-point lead, and no poll found her ahead by fewer than four points.</p>
<p>But Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz's forecasting model — which was based on state-by-state demographic factors — predicted Sanders would win by about three points. Sanders's win tonight comes in part because of several factors working in his favor in the state, like its heavily white population and open primary, which allows independents to participate.</p>
<p>Sanders also dramatically outspent Clinton in the state, taking out more than $1 million in Indiana advertising while Clinton essentially spent no money on the primary, according to Kondik.</p>
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<h3>Watch: Ted Cruz drops out of the presidential race</h3>
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https://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11581934/bernie-sanders-wins-indianaJeff Stein2016-05-03T21:13:53-04:002016-05-03T21:13:53-04:00The Republican National Committee just embraced Donald Trump as its presumptive nominee
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<p>The Republican race is now down to Donald Trump and John Kasich — but as far as the Republican National Committee is concerned, Trump has already won. Here's what RNC chair Reince Priebus had to say after Ted Cruz <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11584234/ted-cruz-drops-out-of-presidential-race">dropped out of the race</a> Tuesday night:</p>
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<p>Despite the misspelling of "presumptive" (since deleted and tweeted again by Priebus with the correct spelling), this is a deeply significant moment. The Republican Party is not resisting Trump. They are not holding out hope that Kasich could somehow deprive Trump of a delegate majority in the remaining five weeks of voting.</p>
<p>Instead, they are acknowledging the will of their voters, embracing Trump as the nominee, and attempting to unite the party so as to better defeat Hillary Clinton. Priebus even threw in a snarky rejoinder to the #NeverTrump movement by adding the hashtag #NeverClinton. The GOP is all in on Trump and Trumpism. What the consequences of this will be, no one yet knows for sure.</p>
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<h3>Watch: Donald Trump compliments Ted Cruz during his victory speech</h3>
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https://www.vox.com/2016/5/3/11585108/donald-trump-wins-rnc-nominationAndrew Prokop