After a lengthy campaign season defined by a pandemic, a renewed struggle for racial justice, and an economic recession, the 2020 presidential election is finally here — and early votes are coming in in record numbers.
President Donald Trump’s record on all three issues — and on immigration, foreign policy, and more — is on the ballot, as he runs for reelection against Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Nearly every major poll has shown former Vice President Biden in the lead in the national popular vote, but Trump also trailed in the polls in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, when he lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College.
Trump’s 2016 victory was largely the result of him flipping key states in the Upper Midwest that had voted Democratic in the past several elections — Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Those three states are crucial once again this year, especially Pennsylvania. Biden currently leads in the polls in all three, but at narrower average margins than in national polls.
But Biden could win the presidency without flipping those states back into the Democrats’ hands. The Sun Belt is home to a number of battleground states as well, most notably Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona.
Nonetheless, Trump still has a number of potential paths to victory, especially if the margins in some states are small enough for the Supreme Court to get involved.
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