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In early 2014, people were anxiously awaiting numbers for Obamacare enrollment. Several different sources provided estimates. This card stack provides a snapshot based on the numbers that were available by May 2014.
How many people had signed up for Obamacare by May 2014?
In early 2014, people were anxiously awaiting numbers for Obamacare enrollment. Several different sources provided estimates. This card stack provides a snapshot based on the numbers that were available by May 2014.
To find the most current numbers, check out Vox's ongoing Obamacare coverage.
Obama administration: 8 million signups on the marketplaces
Who it counted: The White House's number covered how many people signed up for Obamacare's marketplaces, which you probably know as HealthCare.gov.
This included people who had paid their first month's premium and those who hadn't. It also included some people who were previously insured, as well as those buying coverage for the first time. The White House had not published a breakdown of how many of these people had paid or how many were newly insured.
Who it didn't count:
1) Medicaid enrollees, including those who gained coverage through Obamacare's expansion of Medicaid.
2) Many young adults who, due to Obamacare, could stay on their parents' health plans until they turn 26. Many in this group were insured before open enrollment began on October 2013, since the health-care law allowed them to enroll on their parents' plans starting in 2010.
Other factors: Some people who signed up for insurance through Obamacare didn't pay their premiums and so, in the end, didn't get insurance. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius estimated 80 to 90 percent of initial Obamacare customers already paid, meaning about 6.4 million to 7.2 million people who signed up for coverage through Obamacare's exchanges were counted as enrolled by their health plan, too.
Obama administration: 4.8 million enrolled in Medicaid
Who it counted: The White House's estimate covered every new Medicaid enrollee from October through March. Not all of these people signed up because of Obamacare: this estimate included people who gained coverage through the Medicaid expansion and those who were eligible for coverage prior to the health-care law (but hadn't gotten around to signing up until then).
The report did, however, break up the numbers between expansion and non-expansion states. Expansion states added nearly 4.2 million new enrollees from October through March. Non-expansion states, meanwhile, only added about 643,000 new enrollees.
Who it didn't count:
1) People who signed up for private insurance coverage through HealthCare.gov and state-based exchanges.
2) Anyone who signed up for Medicaid in April, when the White House reported a surge of sign-ups as people rushed to avoid the individual mandate.
Other factors:
1) Medicaid enrollment is open all year long, unlike Obamacare's marketplaces and employer-based insurance, meaning people can enroll in June, in August, whenever. So Medicaid enrollment continued to increase throughout the year.
2) The estimate came with a lot of smaller caveats, mostly to reflect the different reporting methods states use. Some states, for example, only reported Medicaid-enrolled households, which can reflect a whole family of enrollees, while other states reported individuals.
CBO: 12 million newly insured through fiscal 2014
Who it counted: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) numbers projected everyone who gained and lost insurance through fiscal 2014.
The CBO estimated that 6 million people gained insurance through the exchanges and an additional 7 million got coverage through Medicaid, while up to 500,000 lost their employer-based plans and another 1 million lost other forms of coverage. That works out to a net gain of 12 million newly insured, according to the CBO.
Who it didn't count:
1) Many young adults who, due to Obamacare, could now stay on their parents' health plans until they turn 26. Many in this group were insured before fiscal 2014, since the health-care law allowed them to enroll on their parents' plans starting in 2010.
2) Medicaid expansion enrollees who gained coverage before fiscal 2014, because their states expanded Medicaid before Obamacare's expansion funding kicked in.
Other factors: CBO numbers are susceptible to revisions. In February 2014, CBO estimated that 13 million would gain insurance through Obamacare. This revision subtracted 1 million from that projection.
Urban Institute: 5.4 million newly insured since September
Who it counted: The Urban Institute's Health Reform Monitoring Survey estimated how many adults gained coverage between September 2013 and early March 2014. It included marketplace and Medicaid enrollees who, prior to September 2013, did not have coverage.
Who it didn't count:
1) Many young adults who, due to Obamacare, could now stay on their parents' health plans until they turn 26. Many in this group were insured before open enrollment began on October 2013, since the health-care law allowed them to enroll on their parents' plans starting in 2010.
2) Medicaid expansion enrollees who gained coverage before open enrollment, because their states expanded Medicaid before Obamacare's expansion funding kicked in.
3) Anyone who signed up during the last couple weeks of March 2014, when the White House reported a surge of signups as people rushed to avoid the individual mandate.
4) Children. The survey only included adults.
RAND: 9.3 million newly insured since September
Who it counted: The RAND Corporation survey counted adults who gained health insurance between September 2013, the month before Obamacare enrollment began, and mid-March 2014. That included people who got coverage through employers, Obamacare's marketplaces, and public health plans such as Medicare and Medicaid.
In total, the survey found 14.5 million gained coverage and 5.2 million lost coverage in the six-month period. That works out to a net gain of 9.3 million newly insured.
Among the previously uninsured, 7.2 million got coverage through an employer, 3.6 million through Medicaid, and 1.4 million through Obamacare's marketplaces. The rest gained insurance through unspecified sources.
RAND suggested more than 2 million lost coverage after they lost or left a job, and less than 1 million previously held coverage on the individual market.
Who it didn't count:
1) Many young adults who, due to Obamacare, could now stay on their parents' health plans until they turn 26. Many in this group were insured before open enrollment began on October 2013, since the health-care law allowed them to enroll on their parents' plans starting in 2010.
2) Medicaid expansion enrollees who gained coverage before open enrollment, because their states expanded Medicaid before Obamacare's expansion funding kicked in.
3) Most people who signed up during the last couple weeks of March 2014, when the White House reported a surge of signups as people rushed to avoid the individual mandate.
4) Children. The survey only included adults.
Gallup: Rate of uninsured lowest since 2008
Who it counted: Gallup's survey found the uninsured rate among US adults dropped from 18 percent in the third quarter of 2013 to 13.4 percent in April 2014.
The rate dropped by varying degrees among different age and ethnic groups, with black, Hispanic, and low-income populations particularly benefiting:
Who it didn't count: Children. The survey only included adults.
