Vox: All Posts by Umair Irfanhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52517/voxv.png2024-03-21T07:15:00-04:00https://www.vox.com/authors/umair-irfan/rss2024-03-21T07:15:00-04:002024-03-21T07:15:00-04:00Meet the EPA’s new Choose Your Own Adventure! regulation for car pollution
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<img alt="A new Ford Transit Custom Plug-in Hybrid van which is connected to FordLive is displayed during a vehicle show on September 2, 2021, in Birmingham, England." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/M8dauCDBRj60QsXf8yqQkG0xQU0=/607x0:5520x3685/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73222693/GettyImages_1338013110.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>The EPA has finalized new emissions rules for light-duty vehicles like cars and medium-duty vehicles like transit vans that will push automakers to make cleaner vehicles like electrics and plug-in hybrids. | John Keeble/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Here’s what the federal rules mean for car companies, the climate, and you.</p> <p id="a6LUV6">The Environmental Protection Agency has officially cemented <a href="https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-multi-pollutant-emissions-standards-model">new pollution rules for cars, pickup trucks, vans, and SUVs</a> that the Biden administration called the US’s strongest-ever clean vehicle regulations. The EPA says the new rules will avert 7 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions and provide close to $100 billion in savings per year across the country in the form of fuel costs, lower maintenance needs, and health benefits.</p>
<p id="CkD9jm">The challenge for the government and carmakers, though, will be actually getting people to buy enough of these cleaner cars to move the needle. And that may be harder than regulators and the industry thought.</p>
<p id="QD1RTW">Because of that concern<strong> </strong>— and some feedback from car companies that the technology and demand wouldn’t materialize fast enough — these new standards are notably more lenient than those the <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23680273/epa-emissions-rule-electric-vehicles-ev-pollution-climate-regulation-fuel-economy">EPA proposed almost a year ago</a>. The EPA slowed the pace at which companies would need to lower pollution outputs and offered more options to meet the targets, which kick in for model year 2027 and run through 2032. </p>
<p id="2L1nUO">The regulations are not specifically designed to promote battery <a href="https://www.vox.com/electric-vehicles" data-source="encore">electric vehicles</a> and instead allow carmakers to pursue<em> </em>a variety of options, like more efficient gasoline engines, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen-powered cars.</p>
<p id="0uByQs">“We are providing a little bit more lead time so that these investments can occur, not just in the automobiles themselves, but the infrastructure,” EPA administrator Michael Regan told Vox. </p>
<p id="sCnjR6">Car buyers will see even more fuel-efficient and electric models in showrooms going forward, but the most gas-guzzling cars and trucks won’t be available for sale much longer. Some of these cleaner cars may have a higher sticker price at first, but the EPA says that the new rules will save drivers money over time and that prices will fall as manufacturers scale up. </p>
<p id="tKv0TG">That’s a key question: While EVs are<strong> </strong>more popular than ever, demand has fallen short of what many manufacturers predicted. A <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/majority-americans-say-they-are-unlikely-purchase-electric-vehicles">Yahoo Finance/Ipsos poll</a> last year found that one in three prospective car buyers said it was likely their next car would be an EV. Still, in 2023, only <a href="https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q4-2023-ev-sales/">7.6 percent of new cars sold were electric</a>, due in part to concerns about<strong> </strong>price, performance, and spotty charging infrastructure. </p>
<p id="lqXzQx">Some companies are <a href="https://qz.com/gm-is-slowing-ev-production-amid-labor-strikes-and-evo-1850954588">scaling back</a> their electric offerings, while others are <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/24071894/plug-in-hybrid-toyota-tesla-ford-electric-ev">renewing their bets on hybrid-electric cars</a>. </p>
<p id="CffOxf">This underscores why decarbonizing <a href="https://www.vox.com/transportation" data-source="encore">transportation</a> is one of the toughest climate challenges. It’s not simply about imposing rules or developing technology; it requires<strong> </strong>winning over fickle consumers who are worried about many other things in addition to the environment. </p>
<h3 id="WgbE0J">The EPA says the new vehicle regulations would protect health, the climate, and wallets</h3>
<p id="r8rPA9">Transportation is the <a href="https://rhg.com/research/us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2023/">largest source of heat-trapping gases</a> emitted by the US, the majority of which come from road vehicles burning gasoline and diesel. For the US to meet the <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate" data-source="encore">climate change</a> targets set by the Biden administration — <a href="https://www.vox.com/22397364/earth-day-us-climate-change-summit-biden-john-kerry-commitment-2030-zero-emissions">cutting emissions in half by 2030</a> relative to 2005 levels — it’s essential to curb greenhouse gases from cars and trucks. </p>
<p id="fb5JbD">These vehicles also spew pollutants that have immediate health harms — nitrogen oxides, soot, volatile organic compounds — so reducing their output will have widespread <a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/biden-harris-administration-finalizes-strongest-ever-pollution-standards-cars-position">air quality benefits as well</a>. </p>
<p id="xwa13B">The EPA this week also changed the way it <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/biden-eases-ev-rule-but-keeps-heat-on-automakers/">compares the<strong> </strong>fuel economy of electric cars to those powered by gasoline</a>, giving manufacturers much less credit for EVs. Electric cars obviously don’t burn gasoline, but they still have an environmental footprint depending on the emissions of the electricity used to charge them and their overall efficiency. And in order to calculate the average fuel economy for a fleet of vehicles that includes electrics, the EPA has devised a formula to figure out roughly how electrons translate into hydrocarbons. </p>
<p id="HyT0oh">For instance, the Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck used to get 238 miles per gallon, but under the new formula, it gets 83 mpg. That means Ford will have to sell a lot more electrics or dramatically increase the fuel efficiency of its conventional cars to meet mileage requirements. </p>
<p id="HoNcbU">Combined, these regulations give manufacturers a strong push to not just build cleaner vehicles, but also promote them to their customers.</p>
<h3 id="cEEvdt">Prices for cleaner cars need to drop alongside emissions</h3>
<p id="0etcy0">The new EPA regulations don’t map out a specific route to their destination, but if carmakers choose the electrification path, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/420f24016.pdf">the agency estimates</a> that between 30 and 56 percent of new light-duty and 20 to 32 percent of medium-duty vehicles sold from model years 2030 to 2032 would have to be fully electric.</p>
<p id="fgciGE">“Sold” is the key word here. It’s not enough for the government to set the standard and for automakers to build the car — someone has to actually buy it. And right now, the industry isn’t making enough of the cars that consumers want or can afford to purchase that line up with the new regulations. </p>
<p id="itJoBF">EVs have also broken promises to drivers. Many buyers say models have <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/media-room/press-releases/2023/12/consumer-reports-nearly-half-of-evs-in-our-highway-only-range-test-fell-short-of-their-epa-estimates/">failed to live up to range estimates</a>, have quality and reliability problems, and cost more to repair than anticipated. Other owners have complained about the availability and reliability of public charging infrastructure. Some <a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/23713040/ev-car-dealer-dealership-electric-sales-gm-ford-tesla-rivian">car dealers have been reluctant</a> to keep EVs on their lots. </p>
<p id="pozdwA">Some of these issues are just growing pains that come with a new technology, but changing consumer perception will be critical to keeping EV growth humming.</p>
<p id="AiZdSw">That’s created an opening for hybrid cars, which offer many of the same strengths as gasoline and electric vehicles in one package. For companies like Toyota that have a long history building hybrids but have been slower to produce EVs, the final regulations offer them an easier path forward. “They will tell you selling a large number of hybrids is far better than selling a moderate or small number of electric vehicles,” said Alan Baum, principal of Baum and Associates, a market research firm focused on the auto industry. That’s likely true given that close to <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/24071894/plug-in-hybrid-toyota-tesla-ford-electric-ev">80 percent of car trips are less than 10 miles</a>, so several plug-in hybrids that run fully electric,<strong> </strong>as they can for shorter distances, could displace more greenhouse gas emissions with a lower-range battery capacity than a single car that runs solely on <a href="https://www.vox.com/batteries" data-source="encore">batteries</a> for hundreds of miles.</p>
<p id="46Lwzn">But it’s also important to remember that the average car in the US has been on the <a href="https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a43903366/average-car-age-12-years/">road for 12.5 years</a>. Many vehicles keep <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/05/15/average-age-of-cars-on-u-s-roads-hits-a-record-high-as-soaring-prices-means-people-cant-afford-to-replace-them/">rolling for two decades</a>, or even longer. So, shifting gears to cleaner vehicles will have the greatest impact on climate change if it happens at the starting grid rather than the finish line. </p>
https://www.vox.com/climate/24106924/epa-vehicle-emissions-carbon-pollution-climate-ev-hybridUmair Irfan2024-02-29T13:30:00-05:002024-02-29T13:30:00-05:00Texas fires happen in the winter. Just never at this scale before.
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<img alt="A fire truck driving towards the Smokehouse Creek fire in the Texas Panhandle region on February 29, 2024." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UWbLpt3nDveF3F4oNYMGU6aTMi4=/0x0:1440x1080/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73173704/GettyImages_2038752937.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Texas is now experiencing its largest wildfire in history. | Greenville Firefighter Association/Anadolu via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Smokehouse Creek Fire in the Texas Panhandle is the state’s largest blaze on record.</p> <p id="r6XtfD">Dozens of wildfires are tearing through the <a href="https://tfsweb.tamu.edu/CurrentSituation/">Texas Panhandle</a> and <a href="https://data.oklahoman.com/fires/">Oklahoma</a> after igniting earlier this week, including what’s now the <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/smokehouse-creek-fire-texas-panhandle-second-largest-state-history/">second-largest wildfire in US history</a>. </p>
<p id="JQWbPX">Dubbed the <a href="https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/txtxs-smokehouse-creek-fire">Smokehouse Creek Fire,</a> the massive blaze, the <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/29/texas-wildfire-largest-state-history-forecast">largest in Texas’s history</a>, has engulfed <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/smokehouse-creek-fire-texas-panhandle-second-largest-state-history/">more than 1.1 million acres</a> and was 3 percent contained as of Thursday morning, spurred by dry weather and high winds. The fire has <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/texas-wildfires-live-updates-rcna141087">killed at least one person</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/28/us/texas-wildfires-smokehouse-creek-panhandle.html">triggered evacuations</a>, and <a href="https://www.lcsun-news.com/story/news/2024/02/28/smoke-from-texas-panhandle-wildfires-affecting-new-mexico-air-quality/72776732007/">shrouded a swath of the country in smoke</a>. The encroaching flames forced the <a href="https://www.myhighplains.com/news/local-news/emergency-situation-prompts-pantex-to-cease-operations/">Pantex nuclear weapons manufacturing plant in Amarillo to shut down</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1762894231771795845">sent cattle fleeing</a>. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here's a satellite look at the fires in Texas and Oklahoma. Notice how quickly they change direction as a cold front/wind shift moves through about half way into the video.<br><br>In our neck of the woods, dry and windy conditions will lead to fire concerns Thursday into the weekend. <a href="https://t.co/5oDGitNpXz">https://t.co/5oDGitNpXz</a></p>— NWS Omaha (@NWSOmaha) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSOmaha/status/1762982892383441218?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2024</a>
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<p id="UOIYrD">Texas Gov. Greg Abbott this week issued a <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-issues-disaster-declaration-for-texas-wildfires">disaster declaration</a> for 60 counties in response to the fires. The region is expected to get some cooler temperatures, rain, and snow on Thursday and Friday, but forecasters warn that <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/firefighters-try-to-tame-texas-wildfires-before-hot-windy-weekend">dangerous fire conditions will pick up</a> again through the weekend.</p>
<p id="pluFdZ">Wildfires are not unusual in Texas and Oklahoma, even at this time of year, but the speed and scale of the current blazes did surprise researchers. </p>
<p id="vTAzL2">“We were monitoring that area for increased wildfire activity, but in terms of the magnitude and the outcome, what occurred outperformed our expectations,” said Luke Kanclerz, head of the predictive services department at the Texas A&M Forest Service. “We flipped the switch very quickly.”</p>
<p id="cTkt2E">Though recent weather is playing a key role in the Texas and Oklahoma wildfires, including a <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/forecast/article/texas-weather-100-degrees-monday-february-heat-18690782.php">sudden burst of extreme heat</a> this month, the foundations for the conflagrations were laid almost a year ago. There are three key factors that have made the situation so severe:</p>
<h4 id="9ms8fQ">A wet spring in 2023 …</h4>
<p id="gcgoiW">Following a <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/12/21/texas-drought-cotton-high-plains/">severe drought in 2022</a>, the Texas Panhandle was <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ama/May182023_SevereWx_Flooding">soaked last spring</a>. “We had a copious amount of rainfall, above normal, 300 to 400 percent of normal rainfall in May and June in the Texas Panhandle,” Kanclerz said. “That rainfall produced a very robust grass crop across the region.” </p>
<h4 id="Uj3DYQ">… followed by a really hot summer …</h4>
<p id="oJAgyc">The region was then baked in an intense, <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/2023/4/14/23677907/spring-summer-heat-climate-change-india-bangladesh-thailand">early-season heat wave</a> followed by more bouts of scorching, <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23780315/south-heat-wave-jet-stream-louisiana-texas-climate-el-nino">record-breaking temperatures throughout the summer</a>. Like much of the country, the heat in the southern Great Plains states was exacerbated by a strong <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23738846/el-nino-2023-weather-heat-wave-climate-change-disaster-flood-rain">El Niño</a>. This phenomenon typically raises global temperatures, but across the southern US, it also shifts atmospheric air currents, and last year, these currents pinned hot air over the South for weeks at a time. Hot, dry air dried out the grasses that are fueling the current fires. </p>
<h4 id="6B3Hph">… over a complex landscape.</h4>
<p id="kiyZwD">The region tends to be flat, but the <a href="https://www.okhistory.org/publications/enc/entry?entry=CA039">Canadian River basin</a> spanning Texas and Oklahoma has complex, rocky terrain, making it hard to monitor, access, and contain a fire once it has ignited. “Where the fires became established in the river drainages, they were able to burn freely with a lot of open range and become established very quickly,” Kanclerz said. </p>
<p id="L4EwcT">Investigators are still probing what ignited the fires, but the majority of wildfires in the region are ignited by people, though often by accident. While global average temperatures are rising, it’s not clear how <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate" data-source="encore">climate change</a> might be affecting the Texas and Oklahoma fires. Kanclerz noted that the region’s fires tend to vary drastically between seasons so it’s hard to pick up any trends. </p>
<p id="viYxmV">But one of the strongest signals of climate change is <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/24043213/polar-vortex-extreme-cold-winter-climate-change-warming">warmer winters</a>, and the <a href="https://www.vox.com/24084753/winter-heat-wave-2024-temperature-us-wildfire-flood-chile-warming">heat waves across the South</a> in the past few weeks line up with what scientists expect will happen as temperatures continue to rise.</p>
https://www.vox.com/climate/24086774/texas-wildfire-smokehouse-creek-panhandle-oklahomaUmair Irfan2024-02-27T15:50:00-05:002024-02-27T15:50:00-05:00Winter heat waves are now a thing. Here’s how to make sense of them.
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<img alt="A firefighter is trying to put out a fire in the Cuemanco Ecological Park in Xochimilco, Mexico City." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Qq5v241V1qFSNOSZ4UYA9KJfoYM=/157x0:5104x3710/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73168749/GettyImages_2031527787.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Wildfires continue to burn in Mexico, the US, and Canada amid unusually warm winter weather. | Gerardo Vieyra/NurPhoto via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>2024 is already shattering heat records as temperatures soar around the world</p> <p id="yTgIHX">After last year was the <a href="https://www.vox.com/23969523/climate-change-cop28-paris-1-5-c-uae-2023-record-warm">warmest on record</a>, 2024 is already off to a ripping hot start. </p>
<p id="F09OOI">January 2024 was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2024-world-experienced-warmest-january-record">warmest January ever measured</a>, and February is <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/20/february-record-warm-oceans-hurricanes">likely to follow</a>. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Global temperatures have fallen back below record levels in recent days, but February 2024 remains the odds-on favorite to be the warmest February on record: <a href="https://t.co/AWoOsCN1BR">pic.twitter.com/AWoOsCN1BR</a></p>— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) <a href="https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1760358052052836583?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 21, 2024</a>
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<p id="VQI5il">Many parts of the world are experiencing unprecedented heat — both in the Southern Hemisphere, where it’s summer, and in the Northern Hemisphere, where it’s winter. </p>
<p id="wicmje">The list of countries is varied and far-reaching: <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/21/historic-heat-japan-lost-winter-us">Japan</a>, <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/science-health/why-kenya-is-experiencing-hot-weather-4531980">Kenya</a>, <a href="https://www.thecable.ng/icymi-nimet-predicts-prolonged-heatwave-across-nigeria">Nigeria</a>, <a href="https://en.mercopress.com/2024/02/03/heat-wave-grips-argentina-chile-uruguay-paraguay-and-brazil">Brazil</a>, <a href="https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/weather/thailand-braces-for-intense-heat-with-temperatures-soaring">Thailand</a>, <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/heatwave-to-hit-south-east-australia-in-end-of-summer/83955ccc-10ba-4c36-8a80-5040a6d27326">Australia</a>, and <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240207-january-2024-was-warmest-on-record-in-spain">Spain</a> have all experienced extreme or record-breaking temperatures in the past few weeks. The US, which experienced a <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/24043213/polar-vortex-extreme-cold-winter-climate-change-warming">bitter cold snap</a> across much of the country in January, is now setting new highs in the <a href="https://mix957gr.com/2024-michigan-warmest-winter-record/">Midwest</a> and the <a href="https://www.star-telegram.com/news/weather-news/article285930001.html">South</a>. Wildfires have ignited in <a href="https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/texas-firefighters-contain-4000-acre-grassfire">Texas</a>, <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2024/02/26/colorado-weather-fire-danger-red-flag-warning/">Colorado</a>, and <a href="https://www.knopnews2.com/2024/02/26/large-grass-fire-north-north-platte-prompts-evacuation-warning/">Nebraska</a>, sending smoke plumes toward the East Coast. There are even wildfires burning <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/02/24/canada-wildfires-zombie-fires/">underground in Canada</a> that initially erupted during the <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/2023/6/8/23753980/canada-fires-smoke-climate-change-air-quality">record-wildfire season</a> last year. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The magenta dots... they are all monthly record highs (breaks or ties). Remarkable. <a href="https://t.co/mvnBczZY54">pic.twitter.com/mvnBczZY54</a></p>— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) <a href="https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1762304150820294759?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2024</a>
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<p id="FuFmXf">Even the oceans are at <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/2024/02/22/2024-hurricane-season-atlantic-ocean-temperatures-florida/">never-before-seen temperatures</a>, which portends <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article285830601.html">more danger</a> for corals and could fuel more intense hurricanes. </p>
<p id="SkmV2F">If the current conditions seem to echo the extreme weather storylines of 2023, that’s because many of the factors behind them remain in place. The world is still in the grips of <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23738846/el-nino-2023-weather-heat-wave-climate-change-disaster-flood-rain">El Niño</a>, the warm phase of the Pacific Ocean’s temperature cycle. <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23738846/el-nino-2023-weather-heat-wave-climate-change-disaster-flood-rain" data-source="encore">El Niño</a> tends to amplify warming around the world, particularly between November and March — and this El Niño is especially strong. The warm ocean water near the equator, which has been about <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower">3.2 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than the average</a>, also leads to more evaporation and thus more rainfall, energizing the <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/24063260/california-flood-storm-atmospheric-river-pineapple-express-climate-weather">atmospheric rivers</a> that have drenched the West Coast and triggered floods this year. </p>
<div class="c-float-right"><div id="vfSiuZ"><div data-anthem-component="aside:12238296"></div></div></div>
<p id="i9unO7">And underneath it all, humans are continuing to pump heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere at an alarming rate by burning coal, oil, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/fossil-fuels" data-source="encore">natural gas</a>, lifting carbon dioxide concentrations up to <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/broken-record-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels-jump-again">levels never seen by humans</a> and not experienced on Earth for millions of years. </p>
<p id="ByRtFy">The warm weather we’re seeing now is directly in line with what scientists expect as the planet heats up, and conditions once seen as extreme will become far more common in the coming decades. </p>
<h3 id="zCwymh">Some of strongest climate change effects manifest in the winter</h3>
<p id="3KyWG1">Earth’s warming due to <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate" data-source="encore">climate change</a> isn’t spread evenly across the globe or throughout the year. Polar regions are warming up to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3">four times as fast</a> as the rest of the world, for instance.</p>
<p id="8NfLvs">Further away from the poles, wintertime is heating up fast. In the US, many northern states are seeing winters warm twice as fast as summers, according to the fifth <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23959402/national-climate-assessment-nca-report-biden-trump">National Climate Assessment</a> report, published last year.</p>
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<img alt="Map of global temperature anomalies on February 27, 2024" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/NEXURtfA8CPzNw8KbA6hJzuoEiY=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25307950/gfs_world_wt_t2anom_d1.png">
<cite>Climate Reanalyzer</cite>
<figcaption>Much of the world is experiencing above-average temperatures, with some of the biggest changes in the Northern Hemisphere.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="RPFfUM">One reason winters are heating up faster is that cooler, drier winter air tends to have a stronger, more consequential response to temperature increases. Every rise in air temperature of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit means another 7 percent more moisture retained. So, starting from a dry and frigid baseline, increasing humidity in the air leads to relatively more heat trapped near the ground, raising temperatures. </p>
<p id="Ajagqg">Another way climate change affects winter is precipitation. When temperatures rise above 32 degrees Fahrenheit, it leads to more rain than snow. Regions like the Western US rely on snow accumulation in the mountains to store water for use throughout the year, and more rain than snow can mean more flooding in the winter and drought in the summer. On the other hand, if air temperatures rise but stay below freezing, that can lead to more snowfall since there is more water in the air. </p>
<h3 id="SuJOj5">The Southern Hemisphere’s summers are getting more intense</h3>
<p id="gC5PzC">It’s been a <a href="https://english.elpais.com/climate/2024-02-01/heat-waves-in-chile-and-argentina-fires-in-colombia-what-is-happening-in-south-america.html">searingly hot summer</a> south of the equator, and the region also had an unusually warm winter. Cities like <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/04/south-america-argentina-and-chile-gripped-by-extreme-mid-winter-heat.html">Buenos Aires, Argentina</a>, saw their hottest winter months in more than a century. In Australia, it was the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-01/bom-confirms-australia-s-warmest-winter-on-record/102804760">hottest winter ever recorded</a>.</p>
<p id="HDchAf">The Southern Hemisphere has some different dynamics from the Northern Hemisphere. The big one is that there is proportionately more ocean than land in the south. Oceans absorb heat and act as buffers against big temperature swings, so winters usually don’t get too chilly and summers don’t often reach sweltering levels.</p>
<p id="Ofk6Ng">But the world’s oceans have been <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23801858/caribbean-heat-wave-dominica-ocean-marine-sea-coral-fish">unusually warm</a> since last year, and that’s helped maintain warm air over land masses in the Southern Hemisphere. And South America in particular is in the line of fire for El Niño. The region has already experienced both <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23992678/el-nino-south-america-peru-bolivia-flood-drought-dengue-cop28-climate">extensive flooding and drought</a> fueled by warmer water off the Pacific coast, leading to shifting rainfall patterns. </p>
<p id="jTrnsu">The heat has also contributed to wildfires across the continent. In Chile, wildfires have already killed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/chile-president-says-wildfires-death-toll-jumps-64-likely-rise-2024-02-04/">more than 120 people</a>. </p>
<h3 id="AQjF48">It’s hot underwater too</h3>
<p id="xWycXk">The world’s oceans near the equator right now remain at <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">record high temperatures</a>. Water temperatures have topped <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23801858/caribbean-heat-wave-dominica-ocean-marine-sea-coral-fish#:~:text=Fueled%20by%20rising%20average%20temperatures,in%20at%20least%20a%20century">90 degrees Fahrenheit</a> in regions like the Caribbean. In addition to absorbing heat, oceans soak up close to <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/june/oceans-absorb-emissions">30 percent</a> of humanity’s carbon dioxide emissions. </p>
<p id="GkKLqB">The combination of higher temperatures and more carbon dioxide is changing the chemistry of the water. In recent months, this has threatened fragile ecosystems like <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23879347/florida-keys-coral-reef-photos-climate-change">coral reefs</a>. Off the Florida Keys, corals suffered <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/researchers-assess-florida-keys-coral-health-following-marine-heat-wave">mass bleaching events and die-offs</a> driven by marine heat waves. </p>
<p id="2fgTI8">The warm waters have reached as far south as Antarctica, which saw a <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23792828/antarctica-heat-wave-sea-ice-level-record-el-nino">record low extent</a> of sea ice last year. As summer has picked up, sea ice around the southern continent is <a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews">no longer</a> at absolute record low levels but still far below what’s typical. </p>
<p id="vBW6z2">Antarctica is important because it influences both the ocean and the sky. As the waters around it freeze and thaw, and as its glaciers melt into the sea, the region alters how nutrients flow in ocean currents and shapes clouds and rainfall <a href="https://www.npolar.no/en/themes/global-climate-change/">around the world</a>. </p>
<p id="owWEGZ">The looming question is whether 2024 will reach new temperature highs over the rest of the year. El Niño is likely to persist until April, but it’s not clear how much the planet will cool down afterward. NOAA <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far">projected</a> that there’s a 22 percent chance that 2024 will be the new hottest year on record, and a 99 percent chance it will rank in the top five. </p>
https://www.vox.com/24084753/winter-heat-wave-2024-temperature-us-wildfire-flood-chile-warmingUmair Irfan2024-02-14T06:00:00-05:002024-02-14T06:00:00-05:00Carmakers pumped the brakes on hybrid cars too soon
<figure>
<img alt="The tailgate of a Ford Maverick hybrid pickup truck at the Washington Auto Show in 2024." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JANsfUQ2HPJ8n5yqri0Tn0FmVVc=/0x0:4843x3632/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73138206/DSC01258.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>The Ford’s Maverick Hybrid pickup truck saw a huge jump in sales last year. | Umair Irfan/Vox</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the age of electric vehicles, the hybrid is still a contender.</p> <p id="ZZf4ps">Are <a href="https://www.vox.com/electric-vehicles" data-source="encore">electric vehicles</a> hitting a pothole?</p>
<p id="2erCOX">Ford announced last month that it was <a href="https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2024/01/19/ford-adds-third-crew-to-meet-demand-for-bronco-and-ranger--reduc.html">cutting production</a> of its F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck. <a href="https://qz.com/gm-is-slowing-ev-production-amid-labor-strikes-and-evo-1850954588">General Motors</a> and <a href="https://www.automotivedive.com/news/volkswagen-layoffs-ev-transition-no-longer-competitive-vw/700969/">Volkswagen</a> last year said they would reduce electric vehicle manufacturing. All-electric and plug-in hybrid carmakers are struggling too, with layoffs or slowing assembly lines at companies like <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-reduces-shifts-two-ev-assembly-plants-china-sources-2023-03-21/">BYD</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/lucid-cuts-full-year-production-forecast-2023-11-07/">Lucid</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/electric-vehicle-maker-polestar-cut-around-450-jobs-globally-2024-01-26/">Polestar</a>, and <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/12/01/ev-startup-fisker-cut-its-2023-production-target-for-the-fourth-time/">Fisker</a>. <a href="https://www.vox.com/tesla" data-source="encore">Tesla</a>, the world’s <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/the-10-most-valuable-auto-companies-in-the-world">most valuable car company</a>, lost <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-tumbles-after-ceo-elon-musk-warns-slower-growth-2024-2024-01-25/">$80 billion in value</a> in January — 12 percent of its market capitalization — after CEO <a href="https://www.vox.com/elon-musk" data-source="encore">Elon Musk</a> projected lower sales this year. </p>
<p id="nZF91g">Meanwhile, EV users are running into some of the harsh realities of living on electrons. Car rental company Hertz last month said that it was <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2024/01/11/hertz-sell-evs-tesla-fleet-gm-polestar-gas/">selling off 20,000 electric cars</a> — one-third of its electric fleet — and replacing them with gasoline-powered vehicles, blaming low demand and high operating costs. Hertz said the sale resulted in <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hertz-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2023-results-302053953.html">$245 million in net depreciation</a> expenses in the fourth quarter last year.</p>
<p id="PpuSOb">Drivers around the United States have also run into some unexpected problems. Some EV owners have experienced <a href="https://www.popsci.com/technology/ev-software-bugs/">software glitches</a>, and manufacturers have had to delay deliveries to squash bugs. Public EV charging stations continue to suffer from <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23589785/ev-dc-fast-charging-station-battery-electric-tesla-rivian">reliability problems</a>, which recent extreme weather has made impossible to ignore: A sudden <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ict/2024_cold">Arctic cold blast</a> across the country in January left EV drivers <a href="https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/electric-vehicle-owners-face-huge-challenges-amid-chicago-cold-snap/3328085/">waiting hours at charging stations</a> as the frigid temperatures reduced battery capacities and caused chargers to malfunction. </p>
<p id="mt19e8">However, the numbers show that electrification is nonetheless charging ahead. Americans bought <a href="https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q4-2023-ev-sales/">almost 1.2 million EVs</a> last year — below <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-12/electric-vehicles-look-poised-for-slower-sales-growth-this-year">some forecasts</a>, but still a record high. They now make up 7.6 percent of the US vehicle market. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="A Tesla Cybertruck sits on the show floor at the Washington Auto Show." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/j-xyKTfjo-kikex5D4qoEmVIwrw=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25283912/PXL_20240125_224503341.jpeg">
<cite>Umair Irfan/Vox</cite>
<figcaption>The electric Tesla Cybertruck began deliveries in 2023.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="qTf34S">So Americans aren’t slamming the brakes on electric cars so much as letting up on the gas pedal, and the market could pick up some speed again this year. Ford noted that it’s still expecting growth in EV sales around the world in 2024 and is developing new electric models. </p>
<p id="qbfWVF">Manufacturers are waging a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tesla-electric-vehicle-sales-2023-97648bc3624cfd2df3080e9a6dde8b1d">price war</a>, so new electrics are getting cheaper. While they’re still pricier than their gasoline equivalents, there are lots of used EVs available — many still under warranty. Hertz is currently selling its used <a href="https://www.hertzcarsales.com/rent2buy-inventory/index.htm?geoZip=20008&geoRadius=0&search=Tesla&sortBy=internetPrice%20asc">Tesla Model 3s for less than $23,000</a>, and you could get one for thousands of dollars less if you qualify for <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23762849/electric-vehicle-ev-used-battery-tax-credit-tesla-ford">EV tax credits and rebates</a>. </p>
<p id="ofPspG">Still, electric cars aren’t on pace for what is ostensibly their ultimate goal: mitigating <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate" data-source="encore">climate change</a>. Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a <a href="https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/global-carbon-emissions-fossil-fuels-reached-record-high-2023">record high last year</a>. In the US, <a href="https://www.vox.com/transportation" data-source="encore">transportation</a> is their <a href="https://rhg.com/research/us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2023/">largest source</a>, accounting for 29 percent of overall emissions. Light-duty vehicles — sedans, crossovers, SUVs, pickup trucks — make up 17 percent of total emissions. The US has committed to cutting its carbon pollution by about <a href="https://www.vox.com/22397364/earth-day-us-climate-change-summit-biden-john-kerry-commitment-2030-zero-emissions">38 percent below current levels</a> by 2030. Nine states now have deadlines for <a href="https://money.com/states-banning-gas-powered-cars/">banning sales of new fossil fuel-powered cars</a>. </p>
<p id="kwNIfU">Last year, the Environmental Protection Agency <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23680273/epa-emissions-rule-electric-vehicles-ev-pollution-climate-regulation-fuel-economy">proposed rules</a> that would effectively require two-thirds of cars sold in the US to produce zero emissions. Electrifying cars is an important step, but many drivers have real and perceived concerns about giving up on gasoline entirely: price, performance, range anxiety, reliability, and charging infrastructure. </p>
<p id="tSHjJe">So it’s no surprise that hybrid cars — models that blend electric and gasoline power — are more popular than ever, even as some manufacturers have begun pulling them from their lineups. “The number of hybrid model offerings declined in 2023, but sales increased significantly across existing models,” according to the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61344">Energy Information Administration</a>. </p>
<p id="Z39v30">Americans are <a href="https://www.anl.gov/sites/www/files/2024-01/Total%20Sales%20for%20Website_December%202023.pdf">buying around as many hybrid</a> cars as fully electric vehicles, and demand is growing. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Graph showing light-duty vehicle sales in the US. In 2023, 84% were nonhybrid internal combustion and 16% were EV and hybrid, of which hybrid and battery electric were each around 7% and plug-in hybrid were about 2%." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HJ130SP3yDuaj6uT5hhWQ4OYX7E=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25283867/Screen_Shot_2024_02_13_at_11.25.10_AM.png">
<cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61344" target="_blank">Energy Information Administration</a></cite>
<figcaption>Hybrid cars are about as popular as EVs in the US.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="Exg6ky">The appeal of a hybrid is intuitive. But whether hybrids get us to our goals or become a time-wasting detour depends on how technology advances, how policies evolve, and how the market changes. </p>
<h3 id="mu43S3">Electric vehicles did break some promises — and some hearts</h3>
<p id="FAujRq">EVs hold a lot of promise. A fully electric car operates at <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv-ev.shtml">77 percent</a> efficiency, whereas only <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml">12 to 30 percent</a> of the energy from gasoline actually goes toward moving the car, with the rest mostly wasted as heat. Though it’s only as clean as the grid that powers it, an EV charged up by a coal power plant <a href="https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/electric-vehicle-myths">still emits less carbon dioxide</a> on balance than an internal combustion engine. And its lifetime climate impact is smaller, even accounting for manufacturing. </p>
<p id="IdxDjG">In theory, EVs offer many practical advantages too. Electric drivetrains are usually simpler, with fewer moving parts that can wear out, increasing reliability and reducing maintenance. Driving ranges are increasing all the time, charging times are getting shorter, charging stations are blooming everywhere, and while they tend to be more expensive now, EVs could close the gap with fossil fuel-powered vehicles as they achieve economies of scale. </p>
<p id="qHb1tP">The real world tells a different story. </p>
<p id="aq1Nez">Hertz found that <a href="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2024/01/hertz-is-selling-20000-used-evs-due-to-high-repair-costs/">EVs in general</a> and <a href="https://jalopnik.com/advisor/auto-warranty/tesla-maintenance-cost/">Teslas in particular</a> had higher repair costs, about double those of their gasoline counterparts. The company also observed that its customers were <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/27/23934691/hertz-tesla-uber-ev-plans-damage-repair-price-cuts">more likely to damage Teslas</a>, often because they were using them for ride-sharing services. </p>
<p id="cMqZDd">Though EVs tend to have robust warranties — typically eight years or more — and fewer components, those parts can be very expensive to replace once out of warranty or when damaged in a collision. A battery pack can cost up to half the price of an electric car, but there aren’t that many mechanics that can fix them, and parts are <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/ev-repair-batteries-expensive-insurance/">hard to find</a>. </p>
<p id="xp2XgM">That means <a href="https://www.vox.com/batteries" data-source="encore">batteries</a> are usually replaced rather than repaired, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/scratched-ev-battery-your-insurer-may-have-junk-whole-car-2023-03-20/">insurers often end up totaling EVs</a> that have sustained seemingly minor damage. That raises insurance rates for all EV owners. Meanwhile, some car dealers — which can make as much as <a href="https://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/where-does-the-car-dealer-make-money.html">half of their profits</a> from repairs and maintenance — are <a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/23713040/ev-car-dealer-dealership-electric-sales-gm-ford-tesla-rivian">reluctant to stock EVs</a> on their lots. </p>
<p id="BClWty">Chilly weather has proven to be another challenge. While gasoline-powered cars can lose almost a quarter of their range in the winter, the cold can take a <a href="https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/fuel-economy-cold-weather">41 percent bite</a> out of an EV’s mileage. Even in warm weather, many EVs aren’t living up to their window stickers. Consumer Reports found that half of the 22 EVs they tested <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/media-room/press-releases/2023/12/consumer-reports-nearly-half-of-evs-in-our-highway-only-range-test-fell-short-of-their-epa-estimates/">fell short of their range estimates</a>. </p>
<p id="dBA1eK">Charging infrastructure isn’t where it needs to be either. In frigid conditions, chargers struggle to pump electrons. Many EV owners top up at home, but those who have tried to reenergize on the road have sometimes found chargers to be scarce, inoperable, or slow. Some EV owners have had their cars <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-owner-stranded-christmas-eve-car-wouldnt-charge-in-cold-2022-12">rendered unusable</a> at public charging stations. </p>
<p id="paCDQx">And while manufacturers have been cutting EV prices in recent months, they’re still costly. <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61004">More than three-quarters of EVs</a> sold last year were classified as luxury vehicles. Many of them were too expensive to qualify for tax breaks and incentives.</p>
<div id="RXcDKp">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">In December 2023, 77% of BEV sales were categorized as luxury, according to Wards Intelligence. While the precise definition of “luxury” is debatable, luxury vehicle prices clearly skew to the higher end of the market. <a href="https://t.co/avJ0WYDPJD">pic.twitter.com/avJ0WYDPJD</a></p>— Joe DeCarolis (@EIA_One) <a href="https://twitter.com/EIA_One/status/1754882962871439409?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 6, 2024</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div>
<p id="nOHm60">Some of this is just growing pains for an industry trying to find its footing in a rapidly changing market, and many of the technical issues are solvable. However, because of these issues, most EV owners haven’t fully committed to electrification: Roughly <a href="https://www.wardsauto.com/dealers/most-ev-buyers-keep-ice-vehicles">85 percent</a> still have a gasoline-powered vehicle as well. <a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2021/09/20/three-facts-about-evs-and-multi-vehicle-households/">Two-thirds of these households</a> drive the gas-powered car more. </p>
<p id="YUPjbE">And while many prospective buyers say they’re interested in buying an EV, most change course when the time comes to sign the paperwork. A <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/hybrids-evs/interest-in-electric-vehicles-and-low-carbon-fuels-survey-a8457332578/">2022 survey</a> from Consumer Reports found that 36 percent of Americans were planning or seriously considering buying an electric car, but just <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2023/02/25/us-electric-car-sales-increased-65-in-2022/">5.7 percent</a> of new cars sold in 2022 and <a href="https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q4-2023-ev-sales/">7.6 percent in 2023</a> were electric. </p>
<h3 id="606kyE">The continuing case for hybrids, explained</h3>
<p id="X0EpPJ">Hybrid cars and trucks appear to overcome many of the practical challenges that fully electric vehicles currently face. And when it comes to balancing scarce resources, limited public money, and the need to contain climate change, hybrids might be the best way to optimize for all three. </p>
<p id="S1cmC4"><a href="https://clje.law.harvard.edu/team/ashley-nunes/">Ashley Nunes</a>, a researcher at Harvard Law School who studies technology and economics, explained that if you’re thinking about climate change, you have to consider what kinds of cars you’re subtracting from the market as much as the cars you’re adding. If an electric car replaces an older, dirtier car, then it’s a gain for the climate. </p>
<p id="QhSNS0">But if subsidies and incentives encourage someone to buy an EV as a second car when they wouldn’t otherwise, then that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00862-3">could be a loss for the environment</a>. With so many new models of EVs targeted at the luxury market and few in more affordable segments, many drivers may choose to hang on to their gasoline cars for longer. </p>
<p id="GjLsRt">“Just because an electric vehicle is cleaner than an internal combustion engine-powered vehicle doesn’t mean that it is better to adopt the electric car,” Nunes said. “Is the goal of the policy to buy electric cars, or is the goal of the policy to reduce emissions?” </p>
<p id="vVqJNe">With that in mind, hybrid cars stand a better chance at replacing conventional carbon-spewing vehicles because their barriers to adoption are much lower than full EVs. Hybrids don’t require chargers and drive like conventional cars. More than <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23762849/electric-vehicle-ev-used-battery-tax-credit-tesla-ford">two-thirds of cars sold in the US</a> are used, and since hybrids have been on the road for decades, there are plenty of cheap secondhand models for sale. </p>
<p id="2plorR">Hybrid cars come in three main varieties: <a href="https://www.toyota.ie/electrified/hybrid-electric/hybrid-vs-mild-hybrid">mild, full, and plug-in</a>. Mild hybrids have a conventional powertrain and an electric drive system but never run fully electric. </p>
<p id="nIQpkY">A full hybrid (a.k.a. strong hybrid) can run in battery-only mode. Since they still burn some gasoline, one can think of these hybrids as highly efficient gasoline cars rather than EVs, but that’s still an extremely useful trait. Since model year 2004, fuel <a href="https://www.vox.com/economy" data-source="encore">economy</a> in the US has increased by 6.7 miles per gallon per car on average and carbon dioxide emissions have fallen by 27 percent, according to the EPA’s latest <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2023-12/420r23033.pdf">Automotive Trends Report</a>. So until electric vehicles become the dominant form of transportation, <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/23141629/electric-car-ev-gas-mileage-fuel-price-economy-epa-california">increasing fuel efficiency</a> is one of the best ways to reduce carbon dioxide pollution. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="The engine bay of a blue Ford Maverick hybrid truck." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rqUvDiPnlBHx3lYjgcSwP8yMd8Y=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25283894/DSC01268.jpeg">
<cite>Umair Irfan/Vox</cite>
<figcaption>The Ford Maverick hybrid has a conventional gasoline engine under the hood.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="O535fD">Plug-in hybrids might be the best of all worlds. They can function as fully electric for <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/hybrids-evs/is-a-plug-in-hybrid-vehicle-right-for-you-a9339147016/">20 to 40 miles</a> at a time. While that’s a fraction of the range of most full EVs, it’s enough to cover the vast majority of car journeys — almost <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1230-march-21-2022-more-half-all-daily-trips-were-less-three-miles-2021">80 percent of daily car trips</a> in the US are less than 10 miles, and fewer than 2 percent are more than 50 miles. Plug-ins also qualify for many of the same tax breaks and incentives as EVs. </p>
<p id="ci72nu">Another factor to consider is that there’s intense <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/29/a-worldwide-lithium-shortage-could-come-as-soon-as-2025.html#:~:text=A%20worldwide%20shortage%20for%20lithium,a%20Fitch%20Solutions%20research%20unit.">competition for the materials</a> to make lithium batteries, which power most electric cars and trucks but also electric bicycles, scooters, and mobile devices. That’s <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-rise-for-first-time-to-an-average-of-151-kwh/">led to some price increases</a> for battery packs and could start to make EVs less affordable if more cells don’t hit the market. </p>
<p id="3GFL0O">Hybrid cars could thus yield more carbon reductions per lithium ion cell. Ten plug-in hybrids with a 30-mile range battery could in theory displace more gasoline miles than one 300-mile range EV. Batteries are heavy too, and larger batteries can have diminishing returns on range. </p>
<p id="3ydBoc">On the other hand, the average car in the US has been on the road for <a href="https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a43903366/average-car-age-12-years/">12.5 years</a>, with many reaching <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/05/15/average-age-of-cars-on-u-s-roads-hits-a-record-high-as-soaring-prices-means-people-cant-afford-to-replace-them/">two decades of operation</a>. “It’s not like five years from now we decide EVs are now fine, all those [hybrids] will just disappear off the roads,” said <a href="https://seas.umich.edu/research/faculty/parth-vaishnav">Parth Vaishnav</a>, an assistant professor of sustainable systems at the University of Michigan studying electrification.</p>
<p id="Hx1OZt">So to address climate change and ratchet down emissions as fast as possible, it might still make more sense to invest in full EVs now. </p>
<p id="Co6Lc9">“If you’re optimizing for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, you electrify,” said <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/people/samantha-gross/">Samantha Gross</a>, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution. Policymakers thus need to do more to bolster supply chains, deploy reliable chargers, and create incentives to make and sell electrics, not just leave it up to the whims of the market. “It’s a systems question, not just a ‘should we build a vehicle or not’ question,” Gross said. </p>
<h3 id="VslEDK">Automakers are taking different routes</h3>
<p id="UfrqLw">While carmakers can build as many EVs and hybrids as they like, it’s still up to customers to buy them. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission-vehicles.html">General Motors</a> committed to going all-electric, but the company announced this year that it is bringing back <a href="https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2024/01/31/gms-all-in-electric-future-now-includes-gasoline-00138624">plug-in hybrids</a>. </p>
<p id="4qgdYt">“Let me be clear: GM remains committed to eliminating tailpipe emissions from our light-duty vehicles by 2035,” said GM CEO Mary Barra <a href="https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/gm-will-add-phevs-to-lineup.html">during an earnings call</a> last month. “But in the interim, deploying plug-in technology in strategic segments will deliver some of the environmental benefits of EVs as the nation continues to build its charging infrastructure.”</p>
<p id="3rAq7t">The persistent interest in hybrids has been a validation for Toyota, which has a long history with hybrids but has been <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyotas-chief-says-electric-vehicles-are-overhyped-11608196665">more reluctant</a> than other automakers to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/why-toyota-the-worlds-largest-automaker-isnt-all-in-on-evs.html">invest in EVs</a>. In contrast to Tesla, Toyota’s stock price has <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/07/toyota-shares-soar-hybrid-vehicles">risen almost 50 percent</a> over the past year. </p>
<p id="2oF3wF">Joseph Moses, a spokesperson for Toyota, noted that adoption for new drivetrains takes time but can accelerate quickly. It took the company 10 years to sell its <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/toyota-prius/toyota-prius-sales-hit-1-million-worldwide-idUKNOA52830720080527/">first million Prius hybrids</a> and <a href="https://www.autoblog.com/2010/10/08/worldwide-toyota-prius-sales-crack-2-million-mark-10-year-annive/">two years to reach its second million</a>. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="A yellow and black Prius 2.0L plug-in hybrid electric vehicle prototype." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OoPl6DW-PTQVZZKYzopbY5NxRVw=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25283930/GettyImages_1441866593.jpeg">
<cite>Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Toyota now offers its popular Prius model with a plug-in hybrid powertrain.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="yJidvM">And while the company is keeping its options open, it has made the leap to cleaner models when it deems the market warrants it, Moses said. Toyota now only offers a hybrid drivetrain for its <a href="https://gearjunkie.com/motors/2022-toyota-sienna-minivan-review">Sienna minivan</a> and is planning to go hybrid only for its <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a45805477/2025-toyota-camry-revealed/">Camry sedan</a>. </p>
<p id="YUyvmD">Ford is also leaning into hybrids as it cuts back production on some of its EV lines. The company will no longer offer hybrid versions of its <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-01/updated-ford-explorer-suv-lacks-hybrid-version-for-retail-buyers">Explorer SUV</a>, but it expects to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/fords-hybrids-take-off-pushing-3q-sales-up-7-7-b78aa396">quadruple its hybrid sales</a> over the next five years. The company has seen hybrid sales rise <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2024/02/02/ford-maverick-hybrid-pickup-sales/72448996007/">43 percent</a> over the past year, led by the hybrid Maverick pickup truck, which saw a 118 percent jump. </p>
<p id="JJG4xj">Those cars will help smooth the shift toward full EVs, though the company hasn’t set a goal for going fully electric. “Research shows that customers that get hybrids are more open to buying an electric vehicle at some point in the future,” said Mike Levine, a spokesperson for Ford. </p>
<h3 id="y9Hq2L">Where do cars go from here?</h3>
<p id="EZHeVK">Though EVs haven’t begun to nudge greenhouse gas emissions down just yet, they have helped slow the rate of increase, displacing 1.5 million barrels of oil out of 102 million consumed every day, according to <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-cars-have-dented-fuel-demand-by-2040-theyll-slash-it/">BloombergNEF</a>. That displacement is poised to grow to 20 million barrels per day by 2040. </p>
<p id="8mEotz">To speed this up, the federal government is offering up to $7,500 in <a href="https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/credits-for-new-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after">tax credits</a> for new and used EVs, plug-in hybrids, and fuel cell electric vehicles. Many states and local utility companies offer their own additional incentives. </p>
<p id="MEiFKj">But the US needs vastly more infrastructure to support EVs. The <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/85654.pdf">National Renewable Energy Laboratory</a> estimated that the country would need nearly 27 million charging ports and 182,000 public fast charging stations to support the 33 million plug-in vehicles forecast to be on the road by 2030. That poses immense <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/ev-charging/the-grid-isnt-ready-for-the-ev-boom-can-better-data-fix-that">challenges to the power grid</a>, which isn’t equipped to handle so many vehicles soaking up so much juice in much of the country. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="An artist paints images of a car, a lightbulb, and a mountain scene on an electric SUV." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jxx6LYse0z_2EaaTv5Cp4vMgocE=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25283890/PXL_20240125_221503377.jpeg">
<cite>Umair Irfan/Vox</cite>
<figcaption>Artist Shawn Perkins (@sptheplug) paints an electric Nissan Ariya at the Washington Auto Show.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="hhj4U6">Another issue is that <a href="https://www.motortrend.com/news/best-selling-cars-trucks-suvs-in-america-2023/">SUVs now outsell cars</a>, undermining some of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/16/suvs-emit-more-climate-damaging-gas-than-older-cars-do-study-finds">forward progress</a> made by increasing fuel efficiency and electrification. SUVs were the <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/growing-preference-for-suvs-challenges-emissions-reductions-in-passenger-car-market">second-largest contributor</a> to the increase in global emissions between 2010 and 2018, behind the power sector. Automakers say they are merely responding to what their customers want, but larger, thirstier cars <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a26b66ba-2c2f-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c">generate higher profit margins</a>, creating an incentive for car companies to sell more of them. Some environmental activists are now calling for <a href="https://davidsuzuki.org/story/its-time-to-regulate-ads-for-suvs-trucks-and-gas-fuelled-cars/">regulating</a> or <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25433851-200-it-worked-with-cigarettes-lets-ban-ads-for-climate-wrecking-products/">banning</a> ads for gas chuggers.</p>
<p id="Weja6g">Again, the goal here is not to increase the number of EVs but to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emitted from transportation. One of the simplest ways to accomplish this is to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/climate/one-thing-we-can-do-drive-less.html">reduce driving</a> overall. That comes down to individual decisions but also requires more thoughtful policies around urban planning, more robust public transportation, and safer, easier routes for alternatives like cycling and walking.</p>
<p id="tVC9EM">So there’s still a long highway ahead for decarbonizing transportation. Costs need to drop further and reliability needs to increase before most drivers will shift EVs from their backup option to their first-choice ride. </p>
<p id="nf2zE2"><em><strong>Correction, February 14, 1:30 pm ET:</strong></em><em> A previous version of this story incorrectly described Hertz’s expenses related to its sale of electric vehicles. The company said the sales resulted in $245 million of incremental net depreciation in the fourth quarter of 2023.</em></p>
<p id="EBxb6Z"></p>
<p id="SALuYT"></p>
https://www.vox.com/climate/24071894/plug-in-hybrid-toyota-tesla-ford-electric-evUmair Irfan2024-02-08T11:00:03-05:002024-02-08T11:00:03-05:002023 was the hottest year on record. It also pushed the world over a dangerous line.
<figure>
<img alt="Activists chant slogans as they hold up a banner reading “1.5 to stay alive,” referring to demands to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, during a demonstration at the COP27 climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt in 2022." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2Kcu1MRDgThODvDGZI7Kd9t1mt8=/608x0:5472x3648/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72905081/GettyImages_1244823849.8.jpeg" />
<figcaption>2023 marks the first time global average temperatures exceeded 1.5 Celsius, according to a one research group. | Mohammed Abed/AFP via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another analysis shows 2023 exceeded 1.5C of warming on average for the first time, a key limit in the Paris Climate Agreement. </p> <p id="GdlAgO">It’s official: Month after <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/topping-charts-september-2023-was-earths-warmest-september-in-174-year-record#:~:text=Year%20to%20date%20(YTD%2C%20January,Africa%20seeing%20its%20second%20warmest.">record-breaking month</a>, 2023 is now the hottest year humans have ever measured. </p>
<p id="gULHyo">The <a href="https://www.vox.com/european-union" data-source="encore">European Union</a>’s <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2024-world-experienced-warmest-january-record">Copernicus Climate Change Service</a> reported Thursday that the period between February 2023 and January 2024 is the hottest 12-month span ever measured. During this time, global average temperatures rose 1.52 degrees Celsius — 2.74 degrees Fahrenheit — above average temperatures at the start of the Industrial Revolution, as measured between 1850 and 1900. </p>
<p id="sAfzYo">Copernicus declared last month that <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">2023 was the hottest year in at least 173 years</a>, with the span between January and December 2023 being 1.48°C or 2.66°F warmer. But this past January was the hottest January on record, so when the team included it in their 12-month measurement, the average amount of warming was even higher. </p>
<div class="c-float-right"><div id="MZ6Vm2"><div data-anthem-component="aside:12238296"></div></div></div>
<p id="NJItjg">The results echo a similar finding from <a href="https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/EMBARGOED-Global-Temperature-Report-for-2023-Berkeley-Earth.pdf">Berkeley Earth</a>, an independent climate research group, that reported that 2023 was 1.54°C, or 2.77°F warmer than the planet’s pre-industrial average.</p>
<p id="TypZi4">The past 12 months brought <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/amazon-rainforest-port-records-lowest-water-level-121-years-amid-drought-2023-10-16/">extraordinary drought</a>, <a href="https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/record-rains-storm-ciaran-deadly-flash-flooding-italy">deadly rainfall</a>, and searing <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/record-breaking-2023-heat-events-are-not-rare-anymore-due-to-climate-change/">heat waves</a>. Extreme temperatures even <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23801858/caribbean-heat-wave-dominica-ocean-marine-sea-coral-fish">reached underwater</a>. Much of the <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23864998/heat-wave-south-america-brazil-australia-argentina-hemisphere-winter">southern hemisphere basked in summer-like weather</a> through its winter, reaching all the way down to <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23792828/antarctica-heat-wave-sea-ice-level-record-el-nino">Antarctica</a>. </p>
<p id="PLqKMv">This period marks the first time global average temperatures have risen above 1.5°C, providing a glimpse into a world where humanity fails to get climate change under control. </p>
<p id="lOMuPi">The 1.5°C boundary stands out because it was a limit established as part of the 2015 <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a>. Almost every country in the world agreed that humanity needs to hold warming this century to “well below” 2°C or 3.6°F above pre-industrial times, ideally limiting the rise to 1.5°C. </p>
<p id="EvoH5G">Global temperatures can rise and fall year to year due to natural variability, so the 1.5°C limit is calculated as an average over decades. “The broad takeaway is that virtually everyone agrees that a single year passing 1.5 degrees does not mean we’ve passed the Paris Agreement target,” said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth and the climate research lead at Stripe. He added that the accord doesn’t explicitly lay out how to measure these goalposts. </p>
<p id="pg84Jm">And in 2023, there were several natural forces converging on top of human-caused warming pushing up temperatures around the world. For example, in addition to heating caused by greenhouse gases from burning <a href="https://www.vox.com/fossil-fuels" data-source="encore">fossil fuels</a>, temperature cycles in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23762529/atlantic-ocean-record-heat-wave-el-nino-hurricane-climate-change">Atlantic Ocean</a> and the <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23738846/el-nino-2023-weather-heat-wave-climate-change-disaster-flood-rain">El Niño</a> pattern in the Pacific Ocean converged in their hot phases this year.</p>
<p id="OU5iOL">However, such a record-breaking year presents a vivid example of the conditions that may soon become typical in a warmer world, or even on the <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/2023/7/5/23784587/hottest-day-heat-wave-recorded-temperature-climate-change">cooler end of possibilities</a>. And for people concerned about the devastating effects of climate change, it’s ramping up the urgency to keep greenhouse gases in check. </p>
<p id="tucevD">In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations team of climate scientists, put out a <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/10/5/17934174/climate-change-global-warming-un-ipcc-report-1-5-degrees">special report</a> examining the differences between staying below 2°C and staying below 1.5°C. They found that every fraction of a degree of warming had additional adverse consequences for the planet. Conversely, every bit of warming avoided would yield benefits to humanity. So 1.5°C is not intended as a threshold or a tipping point for the planet, but a practical target for countries. </p>
<p id="awqo5G">Climate activists and many of the countries most vulnerable to rising seas and extreme weather seized on the findings. Their pressure has now turned 1.5°C into a <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/11/1130622">rallying cry</a> and a de facto limit for climate diplomacy. It took center stage at the COP28 climate summit in the United Arab Emirates last month, where delegates from around the world chalked out what they intend to do about rising global temperatures. </p>
<p id="MHu7Q9">“Keeping 1.5 alive is a top priority and it will cut across everything I do,” Sultan al-Jaber, president of COP28 and the head of the UAE’s state-owned oil company, told <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/uaes-jaber-says-keeping-15-celsius-goal-alive-is-top-priority-cop28-2023-02-15/">Reuters</a> last year. However, the UAE faced criticism that its <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-20/cop28-host-uae-has-insufficient-climate-plan-to-meet-1-5c-goal?embedded-checkout=true">climate plan isn’t in line</a> with this goal. And according to the UN, the rest of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/new-analysis-of-national-climate-plans-insufficient-progress-made-cop28-must-set-stage-for-immediate">world is also doing far too little</a>, and time is running out.</p>
<p id="44a7vR">To keep global average temperatures from rising beyond 1.5°C by 2100, greenhouse gas emissions need to fall 43 percent by 2030 relative to 2019 levels. Yet even taking into account commitments on paper, global emissions are <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/">poised to increase</a> in the coming years. For climate negotiators, that raises an uncomfortable question: What’s the point of upholding this target if most indications show the world will miss it? </p>
<p id="7l539h">When asked this question, a US State Department official said last year they didn’t have a good answer, but noted that it would be very difficult to get countries to agree to a different goal. </p>
<p id="xAnPr4">With so much of the world reeling this year from disasters unlike any ever witnessed, the pressure is stronger than ever for countries to take bigger steps to stop climate change from getting worse. How much warmer it will get is still up for negotiation. </p>
<h3 id="PWu97l">How 2023’s record temperatures fit into the big climate picture</h3>
<p id="09JBsx">To put this year into context, it’s worth unpacking how global temperatures are measured and calculated. The world has already warmed by about <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/key-findings">1.1 degrees Celsius</a>, 1.98 degrees Fahrenheit, compared to global average temperatures before the Industrial Revolution. </p>
<p id="G9t5hY">But that’s an average. Judging how much an individual year has warmed compared to the era before humans started burning coal, oil, and natural gas in gargantuan volumes is trickier. Many of the research groups that track global temperatures — the United Kingdom’s Met Office Hadley Centre, NOAA, Copernicus, Berkeley Earth — broadly agree on the temperature records over the past few decades. </p>
<p id="pgkg7e">Where they differ is in calculating the baseline in the 1800s, when there were far fewer thermometers and certainly no weather satellites. “The methodological choices the groups make of how to fill in those gaps affects temperatures a lot more back then than the last 50 years,” said Hausfather. So, while Berkeley Earth’s data set showed that January through December 2023 was 1.54°C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures, other research groups like Copernicus didn’t come to the same conclusion. </p>
<p id="QUfOD9">Still, 2023 is the hottest year humans have ever experienced, and <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/topping-charts-september-2023-was-earths-warmest-september-in-174-year-record">by a wide margin</a> according to most data sets. September, for instance, was warmer by a larger amount than any month measured by NOAA in 174 years. “To put it another way, September 2023 was warmer than the average July from 2001-2010,” said NOAA chief scientist Sarah Kapnick in a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/topping-charts-september-2023-was-earths-warmest-september-in-174-year-record">press release</a>.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Boats stranded due to drought lie on the edge of the dried-up Laguna da Francesa, Brazil." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/j7hoibkm0cDVMosdhqSimVd_qyQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25099410/GettyImages_1792608900.jpeg">
<cite>Aguilar Abecassis/picture alliance via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Boats beached on a dry lake in the Amazon rainforest, which is experiencing its worst drought in more than a century. </figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="ocxAd0">Several factors beyond human-produced carbon dioxide emissions are at work this year. The big one is that there’s a strong <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23738846/el-nino-2023-weather-heat-wave-climate-change-disaster-flood-rain" data-source="encore">El Niño</a> this year, which tends to <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/where-does-global-warming-go-during-la-nina">drive up global temperatures</a>. The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai volcano in Tonga that erupted last year may also be playing a role. <a href="https://research-portal.uea.ac.uk/en/persons/manoj-joshi">Manoj Joshi</a>, a professor of climate dynamics at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom, noted that, unlike most volcanic eruptions that spew aerosols that end up cooling the planet, the Tonga volcano sent an <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3204/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/">unprecedented amount of water vapor into the atmosphere</a>. Water vapor can act as a heat-trapping gas.</p>
<p id="w8okBq">There were also fewer cooling aerosols from other sources due to regulations to protect <a href="https://www.vox.com/air-quality" data-source="encore">air quality</a>, including <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/03-1-March-carriage-ban-.aspx">rules to limit shipping pollution that went</a> into effect in 2020. Weaker air currents over the Atlantic Ocean also led to less than typical amounts of <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-breaking-north-atlantic-ocean-temperatures-contribute-extreme-marine-heatwaves">dust from the Sahara desert</a> getting whipped up and dimming the sun. That meant more of the sun’s rays hit the seas in some of the hottest times of year. </p>
<p id="vlO8kx">“When you add all these things up, you can start to explain what’s going on,” Joshi said.</p>
<p id="n0z7xW">However, these variables don’t say for certain whether 2023 is just a blip or the start of a trend, even though some months were warmer by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/opinion/climate-change-excessive-heat-2023.html">huge, unprecedented amounts</a>. “You need to look at ’24, ’25, ’26 and if it carries on like that, then you can say, right, it’s more likely to be an acceleration,” Joshi said. </p>
<p id="wkDc3j">Climate scientists prefer to track climate change using 20- to 30-year averages, which helps smooth over year-to-year variations. However, the window to act on climate change is closing and no one wants to wait a decade to find out whether the world already missed its target. So scientists use models and projections to estimate when that will happen. Right now, most models project that the world’s average temperature will rise 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01702-w">early 2030s</a>, but some forecasts show that could occur <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/more-likely-than-not-world-will-soon-see-15c-warming-wmo-2023-05-17/">as soon as 2027</a>. </p>
<p id="ns7nCP">The strange, extreme weather of 2023 thus might best be interpreted as a window into the future. “In a warming world, these temperatures aren’t going to be exceptional in 10-20 years time,” Joshi said.</p>
<h3 id="tb83L0">Does 1.5°C still matter?</h3>
<p id="54bsBy">Setting a climate change target has always been contentious. The countries losing land to rising oceans want a <a href="https://www.aosis.org/small-islands-propose-below-1-5%CB%9Ac-global-goal-for-paris-agreement/">lower cap on warming</a> than do nations that <a href="https://agsiw.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Luomi_Climate-Change_Online-1.pdf">depend on selling fossil fuels</a>. There’s also a fundamental injustice behind climate change; that the countries that contributed least to the problem are usually among those that stand to suffer the most. </p>
<p id="bD5EPo">Since the 1970s, scientists and economists have tried to come up with an objective way to figure out how much warming humanity could tolerate. Looking at human history prior to the Industrial Revolution, researchers found that the planet’s temperature varied, but within a narrow band. It stood to reason that there was a point where the planet would get too hot for people to flourish, or yield dangerous, unexpected effects. </p>
<aside id="fyLNyS"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"2 degrees: How the world failed on climate change","url":"https://www.vox.com/2014/4/22/5551004/two-degrees"}]}'></div></aside><p id="1tJ9wv">“If there were global temperatures more than 2 or 3°C above the current average temperature, this would take the climate outside of the range of observations which have been made over the last several hundred thousand years,” wrote economist <a href="https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/365/">William Nordhaus in 1975</a>. In his paper, he also noted that there are costs to keeping climate change in check, benefits from using fossil fuels, and damages incurred by warming.</p>
<p id="iq28lf">Coming up with a target requires balancing these trade-offs, as well as anticipating other factors like advances in technology. For climate negotiators, it was still a fraught process to come up with a number that was defensible and palatable. After decades of analysis and wrangling, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/l07.pdf">2009 Copenhagen agreement</a> landed on 2°C, which was cemented in the 2015 <a href="https://unfccc.int/most-requested/key-aspects-of-the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="A delegate bearing a sign on his back that reads “1.5°C is life” attends the People’s Plenary during the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow on November 12, 2021." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7P_aJP-pzsBJQ8_tfH2lLjFb6Dc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25099396/GettyImages_1236515163.jpeg">
<cite>Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius is a central goal for many of the most vulnerable countries in the world.</figcaption>
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<p id="5Wnvh3">“It’s both a political construct and a scientific construct,” said <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/news-events/news/dean-rachel-kyte-steps-down">Rachel Kyte</a>, an adviser to the COP28 climate negotiations and dean emerita of the Fletcher School at Tufts. “It helps to know the point on the horizon to which everybody is pointed.”</p>
<p id="Cv4W3L">But even at the time of the Paris Agreement, staying below 2°C was a long shot. Eight years later, with <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/global-co2-emissions-rose-less-than-initially-feared-in-2022-as-clean-energy-growth-offset-much-of-the-impact-of-greater-coal-and-oil-use">global emissions still rising</a>, 1.5°C looks almost impossible. “1.5 is <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/marine-clouds-climate-change-1.7016498">deader than a doornail</a> and anybody who understands the physics knows that,” James Hansen, a former <a href="https://www.vox.com/space" data-source="encore">NASA</a> climate scientist, told reporters last year. </p>
<p id="ebFSwn">Every scenario chalked out by the IPCC in its most recent report shows that the world is likely to <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23648274/climate-change-report-ipcc-ar6-warming-overshoot">blow past the 1.5°C goal</a>. The most optimistic pathway counts on the world falling below the line eventually as natural carbon sinks soak up emissions and technologies like capturing carbon dioxide directly from the air come online. </p>
<p id="L44VVl">“We’re running out of budget really quickly. It’s looking more and more likely that we can’t get to 1.5 through the front door,” Kyte said. “We’re going to overshoot and have to come back down to it.”</p>
<p id="zZRGwB">But Kyte noted that for all the talk about specific temperatures, the cause of climate change isn’t lost if the planet does indeed warm up past 1.5°C. Every fraction of a degree of warming avoided is beneficial over the long term, while switching to cleaner energy and reducing pollution can have immediate benefits. </p>
<p id="4dzLQn">The basic formula for curbing climate change is the same as it was in Nordhaus’s 1975 paper: reduce greenhouse gas emissions, negate the effects of warming, and pull carbon dioxide out from the atmosphere. The good news is that there have never been more tools to limit emissions, they’ve never been cheaper, and they’re getting better all the time. </p>
<p id="9h0AuY">“We simply have to cut emissions faster than we are at the moment,” Kyte said.</p>
<p id="f9YAdc"><em><strong>Update, February 8, 11 am ET:</strong></em><em> This story was first published on November 27 and has been updated with news confirming that 2023 was the hottest year on record and that average temperatures rose more than 1.5°C.</em></p>
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https://www.vox.com/23969523/climate-change-cop28-paris-1-5-c-uae-2023-record-warmUmair Irfan2024-02-06T10:00:00-05:002024-02-06T10:00:00-05:00How California’s torrential, life-threatening storms got so bad
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<img alt="An aerial view of the Los Angeles River swollen by storm runoff as a powerful long-duration atmospheric river storm, the second in less than a week, continues to impact southern California on February 5, 2024, in Los Angeles." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2oqm47vN9EWIZ1cL45WxHgTBLs0=/0x0:4763x3572/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73115702/GettyImages_1989155402.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>An atmospheric river has triggered severe rainfall in Southern California. | Mario Tama/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Back-to-back atmospheric rivers have triggered floods, snowstorms, and power outages in the Golden State.</p> <p id="7foTvB">A brutal winter storm is battering the West Coast with torrential downpours in the south, blizzards in the north, and winds gusting up to <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/state-of-emergency-as-deadly-storm-pummels-california-with-160-mph-winds-and-flooding/1619169">160 miles per hour</a>. </p>
<p id="8Pu0yF">The severe weather has <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-02-05/stunning-rain-mudslides-flooding-thrash-southern-california-dangerous-storm-isnt-done">killed at least three people</a>. California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/2024/02/04/governor-newsom-proclaims-state-of-emergency-in-southern-california-as-powerful-storm-makes-landfall/">state of emergency</a> on Sunday for eight counties in the southern part of the state. The 14 million residents of the region are facing a high risk of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/04/us/pineapple-express-storm-california-weather-monday/index.html">excessive rainfall</a>. Further north, more than 150,000 electricity customers <a href="https://poweroutage.us/area/state/california">lost power</a> as of Tuesday morning. </p>
<p id="TJaS5j">And more severe weather is in store: The <a href="https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html">National Weather Service</a> reports heavy rain will continue in parts of California <a href="https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=CA12688A4BECE0.FloodWatch.12688A6B3320CA.LOXFFALOX.d869e15e3889764800d5f0e6484d8753">through at least Wednesday</a>, fueling “locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding” in cities like Los Angeles while snow will create “whiteout conditions and near impossible travel above 5,000 feet” in the Sierra Nevada mountains. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Concerning radar view this afternoon across the Los Angeles metro as a stalled band of rain from persistent <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AtmosphericRiver?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AtmosphericRiver</a> continues to re-intensify, w/widespread heavy rain now falling once again across nearly entire LA Basin. Renewed flooding/mudslides likely. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CAwx?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CAwx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LArain?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#LArain</a> <a href="https://t.co/NEibzVplfr">https://t.co/NEibzVplfr</a> <a href="https://t.co/4INUzOlm4z">pic.twitter.com/4INUzOlm4z</a></p>— Dr. Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) <a href="https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1754607682336477493?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 5, 2024</a>
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<p id="nkHio0">The wet, wintry weather is a part of a phenomenon called an <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/stories/what-are-atmospheric-rivers">atmospheric river</a>. This is a gargantuan channel of moisture in the sky, up to 375 miles wide, bearing as much as 15 times the amount of water flowing at the mouth of the Mississippi River. As it courses above the ocean and makes landfall, the moist air rises, cools, condenses, and drops enormous quantities of precipitation. </p>
<p id="GvCdaB">Californians are all too familiar with these airborne rivers. Just over a year ago, another <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2023/1/6/23542194/california-atmospheric-river-flood-drought">series of atmospheric rivers</a> also soaked the Golden State, triggering floods, mudslides, and power outages. </p>
<p id="EghZXx">This particular river is a bit different, however. It’s a variety known as a <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/3/20/17144404/rain-storm-california-atmospheric-river-mudslide-pineapple-express">Pineapple Express</a> because it <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/pineapple-express.html">originated near Hawaii</a>. And it’s especially fierce because of the strong ongoing <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23738846/el-nino-2023-weather-heat-wave-climate-change-disaster-flood-rain">El Niño</a> warming pattern in the Pacific Ocean, adding more water to the storm.</p>
<p id="8IvOXn">These downpours are just the latest in a series of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/us/unpacking-californias-wild-weather-year.html">strange, extreme weather events</a> to hit the West Coast. <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/former-hurricane-hilary-brought-southern-california-its-first-ever">Hurricane Hilary</a> in the Pacific Ocean last year triggered southern California’s first ever tropical storm watch, followed by a late-season <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-10-05/southern-california-is-in-an-unseasonably-warm-heat-wave-how-hot-could-it-get-where-you-are">record-breaking heat wave</a>. The region as a whole is still recovering from a <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/californias-megadrought-is-worse-than-you-think/">decades-long drought</a> that pushed essential water supplies to the <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23670139/colorado-river-drought-lake-mead-climate-change-water-cuts">brink of depletion</a>. In fact, states like California have been lurching between drought and deluge in recent years, a phenomenon dubbed <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/23550073/california-floods-rainfall-weather-climate-change-whiplash">weather whiplash</a>.</p>
<p id="PpENxg">And as the climate warms, the likelihood and severity of some of these events are poised to increase. </p>
<h3 id="ITAlnz">Why atmospheric rivers can be such a threat — and why they won’t necessarily solve the West’s water problems</h3>
<p id="DVn9uR">Atmospheric rivers are a regular event, though they often aren’t anywhere near as intense as the storms hitting the West Coast at the moment. </p>
<p id="OnbrN8">In California, a few fall and winter atmospheric rivers can provide upward of <a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2024/02/05/a-climate-expert-explains-why-atmospheric-rivers-are-causing-historic-rainfall-in-california/">half of the state’s annual precipitation</a>. It’s an essential mechanism for filling aquifers, building up snowpack to nourish rivers throughout the year, and quenching thirsty metropolises and farmland. </p>
<p id="EwKZ7n">The difficulty with huge atmospheric rivers is that they dispatch more water at once than ecosystems and water managers can store or put to use. Though precipitation can vary drastically in the Western US, and people are keen to store what they can, much of the water right now is running back into the ocean rather than being saved in reservoirs or aquifers. Water reservoirs in California are on average at <a href="https://cww.water.ca.gov/">116 percent of their capacity</a> at the moment, and some are <a href="https://www.kcra.com/article/reservoirs-release-water-folsom-oroville-shasta/46600105">releasing water</a> to make room for more rain. </p>
<p id="j8AQgq">Sudden, severe downpours also overwhelm sewer and drainage systems in cities, leading to flooding. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">WATCH: Los Angeles areas are submerged as heavy rain from an atmospheric river causes flooding. <a href="https://t.co/vMkk5fOLt6">pic.twitter.com/vMkk5fOLt6</a></p>— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) <a href="https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1753182539571720299?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 1, 2024</a>
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<p id="1VmceK">In rural areas, years of drought have led soils in some places to dry out and condense, so they can’t absorb water as quickly as soils that have received more regular moisture. That can then contribute to <a href="https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/los-angeles-southern-california-atmospheric-river-storm-flooding">flash floods</a> and <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-02-04/19-rescued-from-boat-trees-topple-roads-flood-early-l-a-damage-reports-from-storm">mudslides</a> under heavy rain. Years of drought, wildfire, erosion, and development have also denuded the West of critical vegetation that would ordinarily serve to absorb and slow the flow of rainwater. </p>
<p id="otMmM4">Slowing the flow of water is also important for recharging groundwater stores, allowing time for surface water to trickle underground. In California, <a href="https://sgma.water.ca.gov/CalGWLive/">groundwater</a> provides 40 percent of the state’s water in typical years and 60 percent in drought years. Currently, about one-third of monitoring wells show above normal levels of groundwater, and one-third are below normal.</p>
<p id="g6Mjmr">Meanwhile, the <a href="https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action">Sierra Nevada snowpack</a> — which provides <a href="https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases/2023/Jan-23/Snow-Survey-Shows-December-Storms-Provided-Big-Snow-Totals-with-More-Systems-in-Forecast">30 percent of California’s water</a> on average — is more than 25 percent below the average for this time of year. Though the recent storms <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/storm-gives-sierra-snowpack-needed-boost-18649809.php">have helped top up stores</a>, the <a href="https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-01-31/amid-storms-california-snowpack-remains-far-below-average">snow drought</a> could persist into the spring. </p>
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<img alt="A view of muddy and flooded road in the Beverly Crest neighborhood, as atmospheric river storms hit Los Angeles on February 5, 2024." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7OcavN3-1K4-Xa05tssoRc2SdVs=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25269848/GettyImages_1981172206.jpg">
<cite>Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>The recent atmospheric rivers fueled floods in neighborhoods in Los Angeles.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="esimBp">At the same time, there’s no guarantee that there will be adequate precipitation through the rest of the year, so a summer drought is still possible. A wet winter followed by a hot dry summer can also be <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/04/17/californias-historic-wet-winter-risks-making-wildfire-season-even-worse/">a recipe for wildfires</a> as plants rapidly drink up the bountiful rain, grow, and then desiccate in the heat, turning into kindling. </p>
<p id="OC1dAI"><a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23738846/el-nino-2023-weather-heat-wave-climate-change-disaster-flood-rain">El Niño</a> is amplifying these effects. As the surface of the Pacific Ocean heats up, more water evaporates, and as air gets hotter, it can hold onto more moisture. These combined effects lead to <a href="https://cpo.noaa.gov/atmospheric-rivers-more-frequent-and-intense-during-certain-phases-of-enso-study-says/">more frequent and intense</a> atmospheric rivers. </p>
<h3 id="GLRsYT">Californians are adapting to extreme weather, but the risk is growing</h3>
<p id="lnrUk8">The good news is that forecasting has improved, allowing meteorologists to issue alerts and warnings days in advance so people can prepare or evacuate. Early warnings are a major reason why many types of weather disasters are <a href="https://www.vox.com/23150467/natural-disaster-climate-change-early-warning-hurricane-wildfire">killing far fewer people</a>. Scientists were able to anticipate this atmospheric river more than a week ago. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">CW3E AR Update: The active weather over the USWC is forecast to continue into early February as this sequence of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AtmosphericRiver?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AtmosphericRiver</a> over the Pacific brings more precipitation to the region. Check out our latest forecast outlook here: <a href="https://t.co/YxYzoqwUVf">https://t.co/YxYzoqwUVf</a> <a href="https://t.co/8JKmcNRs9H">pic.twitter.com/8JKmcNRs9H</a></p>— CW3E Scripps (@CW3E_Scripps) <a href="https://twitter.com/CW3E_Scripps/status/1750288673667678575?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2024</a>
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<p id="nRgNcS">Residents are also working to mitigate many of the worst effects of these storms. Water managers are implementing <a href="https://calwep.org/programs/">new water conservation tactics</a> and incentives so they’re less vulnerable to shortfalls. There are also new <a href="https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Flood-Management/Flood-Projects">flood control projects underway</a>, including new reservoirs, levees, pumping stations, and floodplain restoration. </p>
<p id="cCFDTp">However, the goalposts are still moving. Climate change is powering up these storms even further. Rising average temperatures are driving <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heavy-precipitation">more extreme rainfall events</a> and could lead to <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70035057">more atmospheric rivers</a> as the planet heats up further. </p>
<p id="Sy0RkN">And with populations and property growing in some vulnerable areas, the damage from these storms is <a href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/climate-change-projected-increase-atmospheric-river-flood-damages-united-states">poised to become more costly</a> as well. In addition, warmer winters are bringing more rain than snow, and snowpack is melting earlier in the season, adding to the West’s water woes. </p>
<p id="5x1ViU">So while people can adapt to an extent, there’s no substitute for addressing the root causes of <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate" data-source="encore">climate change</a>: the emissions of greenhouse gases from burning <a href="https://www.vox.com/fossil-fuels" data-source="encore">fossil fuels</a>. </p>
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https://www.vox.com/climate/24063260/california-flood-storm-atmospheric-river-pineapple-express-climate-weatherUmair Irfan2024-01-30T14:45:00-05:002024-01-30T14:45:00-05:00The great American natural gas reckoning is upon us
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<img alt="An LNG tanker moored at a terminal on the US Gulf Coast. " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/inYAZ8YMS8szzgaV0HFDeyrjHAU=/0x0:3701x2776/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73097729/GettyImages_1531248737.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>The White House has paused permitting for new natural gas export facilities, citing climate change concerns. | Julia Naue/picture alliance via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>So, Biden paused LNG exports. Does this … fix climate change?</p> <p id="t4g2wd">The <a href="https://www.vox.com/joe-biden" data-source="encore">Biden administration</a> last week announced that it was pausing the permitting process for some new <a href="https://www.vox.com/fossil-fuels" data-source="encore">natural gas</a> export projects, including a facility that would be the <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/business/cp2-lng-in-louisiana-facing-delays-new-york-times-says/article_da87d71c-baf4-11ee-8ad6-fb7b267f320d.html">second-largest gas export terminal</a> in the United States. It’s a move the White House said will help the US meet its <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate" data-source="encore">climate change</a> goals, but it’s not clear how it will affect the <a href="https://www.vox.com/economy" data-source="encore">economy</a>, energy markets, or the environment. </p>
<p id="t9ZVeN">It’s worth parsing this announcement carefully. The White House <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">said on January 26</a> that it’s issuing a “temporary pause on pending decisions on exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to non-FTA [free trade agreement] countries until the Department of Energy can update the underlying analyses for authorizations.” </p>
<p id="IxcflL">That means the move won’t affect exports from the <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/media/us-lng-export-terminals-existing-approved-not-yet-built-and-proposed">eight LNG export terminals</a> already operating in the US, which exported an average of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60361">11.6 billion cubic feet of LNG per day in 2023</a> — 1 billion more than the world’s second-largest exporter, Australia. It only applies to permit applications for new terminals looking to export to countries that do not have <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements">free trade agreements</a> with the US, which includes most of Europe and Asia. There are currently <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/media/us-lng-export-terminals-existing-approved-not-yet-built-and-proposed">four LNG export terminals</a> under consideration with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The White House notes that in spite of this pause, US LNG exports are still projected to double by 2030. And the pause is temporary, which means that if the proposed permits do eventually pass muster, gas exports from new terminals to non-free-trade-agreement countries could proceed anyway. </p>
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<img alt="The Golden Pass LNG plant under construction on the US Gulf Coast. " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_MTQOHMWeY-dMDtsc5FvhI5RKYQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25256751/GettyImages_1531248800.jpeg">
<cite>Julia Naue/picture alliance via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>While permits for new liquefied natural gas export facilities are paused, exports from existing terminals will continue. </figcaption>
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<p id="DpL6Ra">The <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-update-public-interest-analysis-enhance-national-security-achieve-clean-energy-goals">Energy Department</a> said it will use the delay to examine LNG export permit applications with newer data to ensure potential exports serve US interests, accounting for domestic energy needs, <a href="https://www.vox.com/defense-and-security" data-source="encore">national security</a>, and the environment. The process will take several months at least, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-pauses-approval-new-lng-export-projects-win-climate-activists-2024-01-26/">during a teleconference</a>.</p>
<p id="NN7oxv">While the pause itself is narrow in scope, it’s part of a broader reckoning as the US’s <a href="https://www.timesrecordnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/2023/12/24/u-s-becomes-largest-oil-producer-in-history/71999567007/">newfound dominance in oil and gas production</a> collides with ambitions to reduce its contributions to climate change. Biden’s decision to halt some new LNG permits is a change in course from his predecessors. The Obama administration issued the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N0G8111/">first license to export natural gas in 2011</a>, and under Trump, LNG exports <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/trump-administration-secures-american-energy-jobs-natural-gas-exports">more than quadrupled</a>. </p>
<p id="5RDeA9">And while the US is now a major energy player abroad, exporting more oil and gas can affect its own appetite for hydrocarbons. The pause is a signal to gas producers and buyers that the country is beginning to factor climate change into its international energy policies and opens the door to the far-away possibility that the US could one day turn off the taps altogether. </p>
<h3 id="dMMRIg">What is liquefied natural gas, and what makes it different from “regular” gas? </h3>
<p id="PHkph6">Natural gas is largely <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/natural_gas_basics.html">composed of methane</a>, an odorless flammable gas. In the US, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/fecm/articles/economic-and-national-security-impacts-under-hydraulic-fracturing-ban">most natural gas</a> is produced by <a href="https://www.epa.gov/uog/process-unconventional-natural-gas-production">hydraulic fracturing</a> of shale, which releases gas trapped within the rock. That gas is then sent by pipelines to power plants or regional facilities and from there into homes, businesses, and industrial facilities. About <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/natural_gas_basics.html">40 percent of natural gas</a> in the US goes toward power generation, where it provides <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3">40 percent of total electricity</a>.</p>
<p id="0fTGVd">The challenge with natural gas is that it takes up a lot of volume, making it difficult to ship overseas, at least in its gas form. To send natural gas abroad, producers instead chill it to <a href="https://www.energy.gov/fecm/liquefied-natural-gas-lng">minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit</a>, turning it into a liquid that is 600 times smaller in volume.</p>
<p id="X0RFot">But it takes a lot of energy to liquefy gas, pump it into a tanker, cross an ocean, and then turn it back into a gas on the other end. So, the overall cost is higher, the total greenhouse gas emissions are greater, and the net amount of energy provided is lower with LNG compared to conventional natural gas. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="An LNG shuttle tanker floats off the coast of the island of Rügen in Germany." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/W6oix7ukVx5trUX-7ph948nZUl8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25256813/GettyImages_1255329666.jpeg">
<cite>Stefan Sauer/picture alliance via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Germany is among the countries that have stepped up their LNG imports to avoid buying Russian gas after Russia ramped up its invasion of Ukraine.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="igYPZ1">LNG also requires specialized export and import facilities. In the US, it can take <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GEM-Briefing-LNG-Terminal-Development-Timelines.pdf">three to five years</a> to build an LNG export terminal once it’s approved. Germany, on the other hand, managed to <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-poland-is-taking-so-long-to-build-floating-gas-terminal/a-65190724">build an import facility in 200 days</a> as it scrambled to fill a gas shortfall after closing the valves from <a href="https://www.vox.com/russia" data-source="encore">Russia</a> after that country scaled up its invasion of Ukraine. In general, though, LNG is <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/natural-gas-security-policy">not as fungible as oil</a>, which can be easily shipped by the barrel, collected in numerous ports, and refined into a variety of different fuels and raw materials. Instead, LNG requires more planning and long-term coordination between countries to build up a global supply chain. </p>
<p id="LbLsXn">That makes it trickier to use LNG as a tool to aid allies and corner adversaries, especially when a new foreign policy crisis arises or a sudden energy crunch grips the market.</p>
<h3 id="07igD6">Is LNG at least better for the climate? </h3>
<p id="mXlF4g">Whether LNG is better for the climate than other options is a topic of intense debate. If it replaces coal, then in general, yes. Since it’s made mostly of methane, it burns more cleanly than coal, producing roughly <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/natural-gas-really-bridge-fuel-world-needs">half of the greenhouse gas emissions</a>. But it’s still a fossil fuel that contributes to warming, and every new gas terminal, transport tanker, and power plant implies these emissions will continue for decades more. </p>
<p id="Sbhw3O">By <a href="https://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/publications/lng-supply-chains-supplier-specific-life-cycle-assessment-improved-emission-accounting">one estimate</a>, US LNG shipments to <a href="https://www.vox.com/china" data-source="encore">China</a> reduced the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions — the amount of greenhouse gases released per unit of energy — by as much as 57 percent. <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/09/f66/2019%20NETL%20LCA-GHG%20Report.pdf">Other analyses</a> have also found that countries that import LNG produce power with lower emissions than with local coal. Another advantage is that gas <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/natural-gas-and-the-environment.php">produces fewer air polluting substances</a> like particulates, so turning away from coal has immediate health benefits. And having more cheap gas on the global market could undermine the case for new coal power plants in some countries, if they can secure a reliable gas supplier. </p>
<p id="9OgEYl">But some <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/stories/liquefied-natural-gas-101">environmental activists</a> say this paints too optimistic a picture. For gas importers like the United Kingdom, LNG has a <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/the-move-to-net-zero/net-zero-benchmarking-and-analysis/natural-gas-carbon-footprint-analysis/">greenhouse gas footprint four times larger</a> than gas extracted locally. Methane is itself a heat-trapping gas, about <a href="https://unece.org/challenge">30 times more potent</a> than carbon dioxide, so small leaks from gas infrastructure — as little as 0.2 percent — can quickly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/13/climate/natural-gas-leaks-coal-climate-change.html">overwhelm any environmental advantages</a>. The added steps of chilling and shipping gas create even more opportunities for LNG to escape, and the industry has done a poor job of <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/how-secretive-methane-leaks-are-driving-climate-change">tracking its fugitive emissions</a>. In addition, some LNG exports will simply fill in existing gas needs, as they do in parts of Europe, so the climate impact overall is at best a wash, though likely worse than more locally produced gas. At the same time, <a href="https://www.vox.com/renewable-energy" data-source="encore">renewable energy</a> is already the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/renewables-cheapest-form-power">cheapest source of electricity</a> in many parts of the world, and climate activists argue that gas <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?8284466/natural-gas-climate-nature-disaster">no longer serves as a bridge</a> to a low-carbon world. </p>
<h3 id="VJ2aVm">The US can’t flex LNG the way Saudi Arabia flexes oil</h3>
<p id="uZTmdk"><a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/mccarthy-republicans-democrats-rising-energy-prices-saudi-arabia">Policymakers</a> and the gas industry have long dreamed about turning the US into “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/id/100720973">the Saudi Arabia of natural gas</a>.” That means being a country with a resource abundant enough to rule global markets and serve as diplomatic leverage, much as Saudi oil does. The <a href="https://www.vox.com/trump-administration" data-source="encore">Trump administration</a> said it aimed to use natural gas to “<a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/statement-secretary-energy-rick-perry-does-regulatory-review-report-president">unleash American energy dominance</a>.”</p>
<p id="WvGZAE">The US is the world’s <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6">largest producer of oil</a> and <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/production/sub-topic-03.php">natural gas</a>. However, it is also the <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf">world’s largest consumer</a> of these fuels, meaning that unlike Saudi Arabia, it places huge demands on its own production.</p>
<p id="gqEBk3">Still, the US’s natural gas bounty is so massive that last year the US also became the world’s <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/liquefied-natural-gas/chart-the-us-is-officially-the-worlds-biggest-lng-exporter">largest natural gas exporter</a> (though the country <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/imports-and-exports.php">still imports some gas</a>). The US has used these exports to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/US-Long-Term-Strategy.pdf">bolster allies in Europe</a> who are trying to cut back on Russian gas. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Graph of US natural gas exports, showing an increase of just under 5 billion cubic feet per day in 2012 to just over 20 billion in 2023." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qipUqfaL6jzoJ6zo5p-P2b2XwVs=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25256766/Screen_Shot_2024_01_30_at_12.23.47_PM.png">
<cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60582" target="_blank">Energy Information Administration</a></cite>
<figcaption>The US is now the largest natural gas exporter in the world.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="72b7BE">But again, LNG isn’t as fungible as oil, and it can take years for any decisions affecting exports to make a dent in energy markets. In addition, Saudi oil is controlled by a single government-run company, making it easier for Riyadh to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/saudi-aramco-oil-production.html">turn the taps on and off as it sees fit</a>, whereas the US doesn’t have a national gas company. While the US government can control exports, it can’t dictate prices, limiting the extent to which Washington can wield gas as a weapon. </p>
<p id="YZnLD7">American exports of LNG are also raising tensions with hungry <a href="https://www.ngsa.org/industrial-uses-of-natural-gas/">domestic industries</a> that use it as a raw material to make chemicals like hydrogen and as fuel to produce commodities like steel. Some of these companies are concerned that more gas exports will come at the expense of domestic supplies and raise US natural gas prices. In <a href="https://www.ieca-us.com/wp-content/uploads/01.25.24_LNG-Letter-to-Granholm.pdf">a letter</a>, the Industrial Energy Consumers of America, a manufacturing industry trade group, urged the Energy Department to pause LNG exports. “As LNG export volumes increase, reliability risks and costs for both natural gas and electricity increase,” Paul Cicio, the president of the group, wrote. </p>
<p id="QnTbLc">At the same time, the Biden administration committed to cutting US greenhouse gas emissions to between <a href="https://www.vox.com/22397364/earth-day-us-climate-change-summit-biden-john-kerry-commitment-2030-zero-emissions">50 and 52 percent below 2005 levels</a> by 2030, achieving <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/US-Long-Term-Strategy.pdf">net zero emissions across the whole economy</a> by 2050. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is projected to see its <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/saudi-arabia/">emissions rise significantly between now and 2030</a>. But both countries are exploiting a huge loophole in international climate change accounting: <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/10/31/1049822365/despite-their-climate-pledges-the-u-s-and-others-export-huge-amounts-of-fossil-f">Fossil fuel exports don’t count</a> toward a country’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, the emissions from burning oil and gas <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/fossil-fuel-export-emissions-climate-change">go on the importer’s ledger</a>. </p>
<p id="YGXpR0">So while the US now has a gargantuan energy resource that it can readily extract at home, it’s much harder to use it as an economic and negotiating tool abroad. </p>
<h3 id="1q3FFi">Climate promises are easily broken</h3>
<p id="UdzVGk">The Biden administration is promoting this pause as a point on the board in the climate change win column as he faces an election in November and looks to rally his climate-conscious supporters. But again, the pause on permitting is temporary, and there’s no guarantee that the Energy Department will rule one way or the other on its approval. </p>
<p id="fZthJQ">Some activists hope the review will ultimately lead to rejecting these permits for new LNG facilities. “This is an important step,” said Caleb Heeringa, program director for the Gas Leaks Project, a group campaigning against natural gas. “I think it’s unlikely if you take an honest assessment of these facilities’ impact that you can come to the conclusion that it’s in the public interest.”</p>
<p id="vuGvE1">However, some think the pause may just be a punt, and market forces will ultimately win out. “The administration’s decision to slow play permits seems very much connected with short-term electoral politics,” said Jason Feer, head of business intelligence at Poten & Partners, an oil and gas consulting firm. “Come January 2025 … regardless of who wins the election, there’s a good chance you will see things speed up.”</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Protestors holding signs opposing new natural gas terminals in Germany." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hLXjq0hlRbsC3JXrB14Ja7ra6M8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25256793/GettyImages_1763956473.jpeg">
<cite>Stefan Sauer/picture alliance via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Environmental activists in Europe have protested new LNG import terminals.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="Qr6tzv">If the pause lasts longer, however, other countries could start to react, switching to different fuels or different suppliers. “Longer delays and continued uncertainties around the potential for US LNG would have long-lasting implications for the global LNG market, possibly jeopardizing the role that gas can play in the energy transition,” said Giles Farrer, head of gas and LNG research at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm. “The US regulatory uncertainty provides impetus for competing projects.” While the US is the world’s largest gas exporter, it’s facing competition from Canada, Australia, and Qatar, countries that could scoop up customers that the US forgoes. </p>
<p id="LH9c78">For its part, the Biden administration has shown that when pressed, it’s willing to promote more fossil fuels. The White House <a href="https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1550113365019746309">bragged about low gasoline prices</a>, even tapping the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/16/biden-oil-reserve-fuels-00121298">US Strategic Petroleum Reserve</a> to increase supply (there is no similar reserve for natural gas). Biden also allowed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/04/15/interior-department-biden-oil-gas-lease/">new oil and gas lease sales on public lands</a>, breaking an <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210201090553/https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/">explicit campaign promise</a> not to do so. Last year, he drew the ire of environmental activists and broke another promise when he approved the <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/2023/3/14/23637780/willow-project-biden-oil-drilling-climate-change">Willow oil-drilling project</a> in Alaska. </p>
<p id="Pk1Wl9">So it’s not surprising that officials left themselves some wiggle room. In the January 26 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">announcement</a>, the White House noted the pause is “subject to exception for unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies.” And if any lesson has crystalized from the past few years, it’s to anticipate the unanticipated. </p>
https://www.vox.com/climate/24055711/lng-export-pause-biden-liquefied-natural-gas-climate-changeUmair Irfan2024-01-23T11:00:00-05:002024-01-23T11:00:00-05:00Your home’s cleaner, better heating system comes with one major cost
<figure>
<img alt="Electric utility service trucks line up after a snow storm along a snow-covered street on February 16, 2021, in Fort Worth, Texas." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/G8aPhDB_Qqqt1TPVglD4myp2lUc=/0x0:3915x2936/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73078264/GettyImages_1231205567.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>Cold weather is bringing more challenges for the power grid, limiting power supplies, constraining transmission, and increasing demand. | Ron Jenkins/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>American energy needs are changing. So far, the US power grid has been able to keep you warm. </p> <p id="e7IzV5">The recent <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/24043213/polar-vortex-extreme-cold-winter-climate-change-warming">deep, biting chill</a> that froze the United States forced millions of furnaces to switch on at the same time, raising energy demand to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-natural-gas-demand-hits-record-high-amid-severe-cold-snap-2024-01-17/">new seasonal highs</a> during <a href="https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2023/11/09/much-of-eastern-u-s-at-risk-of-winter-power-failures-grid-watchdog-00126176">one of the diciest times of year</a> for power reliability. </p>
<p id="6HwVBM">In fact, the Tennessee Valley Authority — the federal power utility that covers states including Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky — set a <a href="https://www.local3news.com/local-news/tva-hits-peak-record-setting-demand-no-blackouts-reported/article_366e5c4a-b550-11ee-a291-379c3010605c.html">new power demand record</a> last week, not just for winter, but for all time. </p>
<p id="h6Mn3B">The good news is that for the most part, the lights stayed on and toes stayed warm as most of the US avoided sweeping blackouts. But some homes in states like <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2024/01/winds-freezing-rain-wreak-more-havoc-on-portland-area-power-lines-outages-near-60000.html">Oregon</a>, <a href="https://www.wdsu.com/article/new-orleans-winter-weather-power-outages/46382721">Louisiana</a>, and <a href="https://www.wlky.com/article/elk-creek-taylorsville-spencer-county-no-powe-cold-homes/46474474">Kentucky</a> did go dark amid the icy weather, while other regions came precariously close to shortages. </p>
<p id="kEpdn8">The cold weather makes these vulnerabilities clear, but it also reveals that wintertime energy demand is rapidly changing. As more homes <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/heat-pump-sales-topped-gas-furnaces-United-States/652277/">switch to electric heating</a>, winter electricity usage is rising faster than it is in the summer across much of the US, and that’s a mounting challenge for utilities. </p>
<p id="SCuq3o">Our current energy infrastructure is getting by — but just barely. And parts of the country have already seen what happens when it doesn’t hold up: Power outages across Texas during <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/2/16/22284140/texas-blackout-outage-winter-storm-uri-ercot-power-grid-cold-snow-austin-houston-dallas">Winter Storm Uri</a> in February 2021 contributed to <a href="https://www.kut.org/energy-environment/2022-02-15/one-year-later-many-question-the-official-number-of-deaths-linked-to-the-texas-blackout">at least 700 deaths</a> across the state. </p>
<p id="UDHsdi">In power markets like <a href="https://www.pjm.com/about-pjm">PJM</a>, which serves 13 Eastern states and the District of Columbia, winter energy needs are increasing faster than any other time of year — even more rapidly than the ever-hotter summers. </p>
<p id="2Wsnnc">“In PJM, the highest electricity demand peaks are in the summer, but you will see that the long-term expected increase in the winter peak actually outpaces the growth in the summer peak,” said Jeff Shields, a spokesperson for PJM, in an email. “That is primarily attributable to the growth in electrification of heating systems.”</p>
<h3 id="4bxDmA">Why winter is becoming a trickier time for the power grid</h3>
<p id="tLilGm">In 2020, electricity met 44 percent of residential energy needs while <a href="https://www.vox.com/fossil-fuels" data-source="encore">natural gas</a>, for appliances like stoves and furnaces, provided 43 percent. About <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/homes.php">half of total household energy demand</a> goes to just heating and cooling. As temperatures dipped last week, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-natural-gas-demand-eyes-record-arctic-blast-dents-output-2024-01-16/">natural gas demand</a> for heating and power generation reached a new record high across the US — just as gas wells also froze and supplies hit a 13-month low, raising prices for both gas and electric heating. The main Texas electricity grid operator, ERCOT, <a href="https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/ercot-renews-call-for-conservation-for-tuesday-record-winter-demand-set-monday/3434047/">asked customers to conserve power</a> as the state crept toward <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-grid-ercot-holds-firm-arctic-temperatures-new-demand-records/704717/">new wintertime demand records</a>. </p>
<p id="BVcAU4">Winters, it turns out, can be just as difficult for the <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy" data-source="encore">power grid</a> as summers, if not more so. The US experienced its <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23893057/power-electricity-grid-heat-wave-record-blackout-outage-climate">highest electricity demand day ever</a> last summer as scorching heat waves baked much of the country. Yet fans and air conditioners kept blowing because grid operators anticipated the heat and procured extra electrons months in advance. </p>
<p id="VQcDgM">Sudden cold snaps, however, <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/news/forecasting-extreme-temperatures-months-in-advance/">can be harder to predict</a> than heat waves. Hot weather takes time to build up, and cyclical weather patterns like <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23738846/el-nino-2023-weather-heat-wave-climate-change-disaster-flood-rain">El Niño</a> can signal months in advance that severe heat is looming.</p>
<p id="Qo5P0K">Cold weather, on the other hand, can set in fast, with Arctic cold fronts causing temperatures to drop as much as <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ama/50ranges">50 degrees Fahrenheit within hours</a>. Icy weather can literally freeze up fuel supplies and damage power lines while rapidly raising energy needs as people try to stay warm during a time of year when many utilities schedule downtime for power plants. That’s further worsened when a bout of chilly weather defies the historical patterns that utilities use to procure electricity generation.</p>
<p id="b2gPPz">“As observed in recent winter reliability events, over 20% of generating capacity has been forced off-line when freezing temperatures extend over parts of North America that are not typically exposed to such conditions,” according to the <a href="https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_WRA_2023.pdf">winter reliability assessment for 2024</a> from North American Electric Reliability Corporation, an energy industry nonprofit focusing on the power grid. </p>
<p id="UVx0US">So while winter demand surges often aren’t as high as they are in the summer, scaling these peaks can be trickier, even as winters warm up overall due to <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate" data-source="encore">climate change</a>. </p>
<p id="EvKdke"><a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/9/19/12938086/electrify-everything">Switching to electricity</a> is a key part of the US strategy for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change, and swapping oil and gas-burning furnaces for heat pumps and resistive heaters, which use electricity to generate warmth, is an important tactic. Cars that run on electricity rather than gasoline are also gaining traction, introducing new loads to the power grid. Over time, the overall effect is that greenhouse gas emissions and total energy use will go down — but along the way, electricity consumption will go up. </p>
<p id="CGca0G">The US <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56040">Energy Information Administration</a> projects that US residential electricity demand will grow upward of 22 percent by 2050. To ensure fingers don’t go numb in the future, grid operators have to start planning now to keep electrons flowing and develop new tactics for allocating power in the bitter cold. Fortunately, the new generation of electric appliances provides more options for smoothing out power demand peaks and could improve overall grid reliability. </p>
<h3 id="LTnmRE">Texas learned from its last major brush with the cold</h3>
<p id="ZO33oR">The 2021 blackouts across Texas during Winter Storm Uri, which cast a massive slick of cold, snow, and ice from Texas to Maine, illustrated just how many different ways cold weather can embrittle the power grid. Texas is the largest <a href="https://www.vox.com/renewable-energy" data-source="encore">wind energy</a> producer in the US and some Republicans were <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/2/19/22290512/texas-winter-storm-wind-energy-power-outage-grid-fox-news">quick to blame renewable energy</a> for the blackouts, but a <a href="https://energy.utexas.edu/research/ercot-blackout-2021">report on the outages</a> from the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin put it bluntly: “All types of generation technologies failed.”</p>
<p id="1oELba">Frozen equipment and iced-up pipelines led to an 85 percent drop in natural gas production. <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/texas-winter-storm-uri/">Nuclear power</a> plants malfunctioned. Coal <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/how-coal-failed-in-the-texas-deep-freeze/">piles froze solid</a>. Wind <a href="https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2021/02/14/historic-winter-storm-freezes-texas-wind-turbines-hampering-electric-generation/4483230001/">turbines iced up</a>. Snow <a href="https://www.pecanstreet.org/2021/02/solarstorm/">blocked solar panels</a>. </p>
<p id="NMfzr9">In addition, ERCOT failed to anticipate just how cold it could get in the Lone Star State. Though <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/24043213/polar-vortex-extreme-cold-winter-climate-change-warming">winters are generally heating up</a> due to climate change, sudden bouts of cold are still possible, even in Texas. Many power producers had scheduled maintenance and downtime for their generators during the storm, anticipating a more typical warm Texas winter. “Traditionally the whole system and planning has been around meeting the summer peak,” said <a href="https://energy.utexas.edu/about/people/carey-king">Carey King</a>, a research scientist at the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin who co-chaired the investigation into the 2021 Texas blackouts. </p>
<p id="8NaA17">Solar generators also tend to produce much less electricity in cold seasons than on long, sunny summer days. Wind energy production <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=20112">can vary through the year</a>, and in Texas, it tends to <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45476">peak in the spring</a> and dip in the winter. So there was less power available when Uri gripped the country. </p>
<p id="9OjMWF">Another complication is that, as in so many other areas, Texas likes to go it alone when it comes to power. Unlike the rest of the US, most of the state is on an independent power grid with few connections across state lines, so Texans couldn’t import power from other states during Uri. Before the recent cold snap, ERCOT forecasted a <a href="https://www.kut.org/energy-environment/2024-01-08/remember-last-summers-high-electricity-bills-they-could-be-back-this-winter">1-in-6 chance of a grid emergency</a> if a big winter storm were to hit the state. (ERCOT declined a request for an interview.) </p>
<p id="Ac6paf">With no major grid-related outages despite the winter demand peaks last week, it appears Texas power producers, grid operators, and regulators learned and applied the bitter lessons from 2021. Power providers invested in winterizing their infrastructure and ensured enough electricity was available.</p>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Texas set 3 all-time records for power demand & supply this winter storm.<br><br>The ERCOT power grid performed flawlessly, never failing.<br><br>No Texan lost power b/c of the grid.<br><br>This is b/c of reforms that added more power generation, winterized the grid & gave more tools to ERCOT. <a href="https://t.co/aoIBbNWD7l">pic.twitter.com/aoIBbNWD7l</a></p>— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) <a href="https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1747317620137730175?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2024</a>
</blockquote>
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<p id="fk6FGt">However, the recent cold didn’t bring as much precipitation as the 2021 cold snap, so icing wasn’t as big of an issue for the power system. And ERCOT still had to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/ercot-asks-texans-to-conserve-electricity-as-bitter-cold-continues/">ask Texans to conserve power</a>. </p>
<h3 id="FeFYJd">Smarter power management can keep us warm</h3>
<p id="sny0Go">The demand side of the equation, however, could still prove to be a problem. In Texas, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47116">61 percent of homes</a> use electric heating, compared to 39 percent across the US as a whole. That means there is still a lot of room to grow for electric heating, so the task of providing wintertime energy when the temperature suddenly drops could get harder. Meanwhile, more Americans are <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/01/why-the-ev-boom-could-put-a-major-strain-on-our-power-grid.html">buying plug-in electric vehicles</a>. Together, these factors will steadily push up electricity usage in the winter across the country. </p>
<p id="e1wdHZ">“Our 2023 forecast shows that the winter peak is expected to grow steadily over the next decade,” said Anne George, spokesperson for ISO New England, the grid operator for much of the northeastern US, in an email.</p>
<p id="BO0uHx">On the other hand, electrification also creates opportunities to increase reliability. Appliances that can be programmed to take advantage of real-time energy prices or respond to grid alerts can help smooth over peaks and troughs in electricity demand. And <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/22969335/california-gm-electric-cars-power-grid-batteries-blackouts">batteries in cars and homes</a> could be tapped to push additional electrons onto the grid when supplies are tight. Texas last year began testing <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/energy-storage/texas-hooked-up-its-first-virtual-power-plants-to-help-the-grid">virtual power plants</a>, where grid operators can tap household products like <a href="https://www.vox.com/tesla" data-source="encore">Tesla</a>’s Powerwall, a home battery system, to provide electricity. Better insulation and increasing energy efficiency can also slow the overall demand increase. </p>
<p id="SALNbD">So, it’s possible to stay toasty without heating up the rest of the planet. It just requires careful planning and flexibility, aimed not just at the highest peaks of energy use during the year, but at rising demand overall. </p>
https://www.vox.com/climate/24047383/winter-storm-heating-electricity-grid-power-polar-vortexUmair Irfan2024-01-19T07:00:00-05:002024-01-19T07:00:00-05:00Why have our winters gotten so weird?
<figure>
<img alt="Children are sledding in front of the Capitol Building in Washington, DC, on January 16, after the region received 2-4 inches of snow, marking the first significant snowstorm in over two years for the city." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JAhTvWxkQ6kfbJ9psUjd25PMUrc=/781x0:7056x4706/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73068135/GettyImages_1931227878.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>Much of the US is experiencing frigid cold temperatures, but winters have been warming across the country in recent decades. | Aaron Schwartz/NurPhoto via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yes, it’s freezing now. But winters are actually warming dangerously fast.</p> <p id="CAlYdW">Bitter cold continues to grip the United States as unusual freezing temperatures stretch <a href="https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-cold-wind-chill-wednesday-temperatures/46421158">as far south as Florida</a> this week. Even <a href="https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/deadly-cold-continues">more chilly weather</a> is in store through the weekend, putting more than 80 percent of the US population under some type of cold weather advisory. </p>
<p id="ClZLu0">But this jarring cold snap is sandwiched between the end of what was the <a href="https://www.vox.com/23969523/climate-change-cop28-paris-1-5-c-uae-2023-record-warm">hottest year on record</a> and the start of another year that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-scientists-say-one-in-three-chance-2024-another-year-record-heat-2024-01-12/">could be even hotter</a>. And even as temperatures <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/arctic-blast-ends-new-york-snow-drought-brings-record-cold-west-2024-01-16/">plunge to new depths</a>, the recent weather isn’t remotely enough to derail an ominous trend. </p>
<p id="MwQHoC">As the climate changes, the bottom of the temperature scale is rising faster than the top. This pronounced winter warming is often less palpable than the triple-digit summer heat waves that have become all the more frequent across much of the country, but no less profound. </p>
<p id="QxlXJ1">According to <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/fewer-frigid-nights-2023">Climate Central</a>, more than 200 locations around the United States have lost almost two weeks of below-freezing nights since 1970. By 2050, 23 states are projected to lose upward of a month of freezing days. </p>
<p id="DSks3u">“In general, winters have been getting warmer across the country, and really across the world,” said <a href="https://cropsoil.uga.edu/people/faculty/pam-knox.html">Pamela Knox</a>, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia extension. “It turns out that the colder seasons are warming up more quickly than the warmer seasons.” Warmer winters are one of the strongest examples of how humanity has changed the world with its ravenous appetite for fossil fuels, which emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and drive up global temperatures. </p>
<p id="6KFe9M">That doesn’t just mean <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/26/ski-resorts-battle-for-a-future-as-snow-declines-in-climate-crisis">fewer good ski days</a> or the end of <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/24001256/snow-winter-climate-change-solastalgia-warming">white Christmases</a> for some regions; cold weather is an important, essential signal for plants and animals, and losing it has far-reaching effects on the economy, food production, and health. </p>
<h3 id="pSDTnr">Why winters in particular are heating up </h3>
<p id="7Pd8V0">Though Earth is warming on average, those changes aren’t distributed evenly across the planet or throughout the year. The Arctic, for example, is warming about <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3">four times as fast</a> as the rest of the world as the sunlight-reflecting ice yields to the darker, heat-absorbing ocean below.</p>
<p id="fhfxrK">The cold seasons are also heating up disproportionately further south, albeit at a slower pace than the North Pole. According to the fifth <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23959402/national-climate-assessment-nca-report-biden-trump">National Climate Assessment</a>, a report by 14 US government agencies published last year, “Winter is <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/#key-message-1">warming nearly twice as fast</a> as summer in many northern states.”</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Maps showing changes in hot and cold extremes across the US. " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-etY8O__BdIfduR_nqcMyLhXnbM=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25234579/figure2_7.jpeg">
<cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/#key-message-1" target="_blank">National Climate Assessment</a></cite>
<figcaption>The number of hot extreme days has increase over the past 20 years across the US while cold extremes are declining. </figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="5O7qzX">Why? Winters, it turns out, tend to have a stronger response to heat-trapping gases than summers. That’s not just due to carbon dioxide and methane, but also water vapor. For every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit increase in temperature, air can hold on to 7 percent more moisture. “Cold atmospheres are especially sensitive to the additional moisture because the air is usually dry to start with, and a little more water vapor means a lot more heat is trapped near the surface,” <a href="https://www.woodwellclimate.org/staff/jennifer-francis/">Jennifer Francis</a>, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, an independent team of climate scientists, wrote in an email. </p>
<p id="Jyuena">In places where winter temperatures are rising above the freezing point, that’s leading to more rain than snow. But in areas where winter is warming but not yet above 32 degrees Fahrenheit, that extra moisture in the air can lead to more snowfall. </p>
<p id="enAbeK">“Snowfall is generally declining except where it’s still plenty cold enough for snow (rather than rain) to fall,” Francis said. “There is also a clear increased frequency of heavy precipitation events in all seasons.”</p>
<p id="e9FLBP">Warming winters could also have some paradoxical effects and may even contribute to sudden cold snaps like the one underway across the US, although scientists are <a href="https://www.vox.com/22287295/texas-uri-climate-change-cold-polar-vortex-arctic">debating the mechanisms at work</a>. One idea is that the rapid warming in the Arctic is destabilizing the polar vortex, the band of fast-moving air that typically contains frigid air to the far north. The National Climate Assessment <a href="https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/#key-message-1">notes</a> that “some recent studies suggest that Arctic warming results in increasing disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex that cause cold air from the Arctic to spill down over the United States, as seen in recent severe winter weather events such as the February 2021 cold snap that affected large parts of the country.”</p>
<p id="riTGEX">However, with more greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere, more heating is in store for the coldest regions of the world, which in turn will raise sea levels, alter ocean currents, and warp weather patterns around the globe. This is already having far-reaching effects near the equator, from reshaping shorelines to hampering harvests of prized fruit. </p>
<h3 id="KFiD98">You’ll miss this cold when it’s gone</h3>
<p id="5RVQz8">Consider the peach. For the state of Georgia, it’s kind of its thing. </p>
<p id="OPavEZ">Georgia’s official nickname is “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2023/01/29/official-state-nicknames-50-united-states/11032943002/">The Peach State</a>.” “George peach” is a <a href="https://www.benjaminmoore.com/en-us/paint-colors/color/031/georgia-peach">trademarked paint color</a>. They’re on the <a href="https://mvd.dor.ga.gov/motor/plates/PlateDetails.aspx?pcode=AA">license plate</a>. The Atlanta metro area has <a href="https://www.atlantamagazine.com/news-culture-articles/the-somewhat-definitive-ranking-of-atlantas-peachtree-streets/">more than 70 Peachtree streets</a>. </p>
<p id="5iUuPI">These perfect, pinkish, plump, pulpy, pitted produce are products of pride for the state (despite Georgia ranking <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=107215">a distant third</a> in peach production). So, the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/30/1178773390/weather-is-to-blame-for-roughly-90-of-georgias-peach-crop-being-destroyed">loss of 90 percent of the crop</a> last year — the worst harvest since at least 1955 — hit Georgians hard. Even as <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/georgia-the-peach-state-is-out-of-peaches-heres-why-and-how-locals-are-coping/">prices tripled</a>, many farmers didn’t have any peaches to sell, leaving picky connoisseurs to scramble for what was left. </p>
<p id="tQTT4K">“Buying peaches from any other state is completely out of the question,” Henryk Kumar, director of operations at the Butter & Cream ice cream shops in Georgia, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/15/business/georgia-peach-shortage/index.html">told CNN last year</a>. </p>
<p id="3AtYTi">Like much of the country, Georgia was hammered by severe and often hot weather in 2023. The extremes proved to be an <a href="https://www.walb.com/2023/07/19/peach-state-saw-90-its-namesake-crop-destroyed/">especially deadly combination</a> for the state’s precious fruit. A heat wave in February followed by two back-to-back cold snaps then heat waves again in the summer devastated the crop. </p>
<p id="lLciFV">The string of weather last year was especially unlucky, but warmer temperatures from November through February are posing a long-term threat to the future of Georgia peaches.</p>
<p id="131H2C">Georgia isn’t known for chilly winters, but what little cool weather it gets is precious. To produce ample fruit, peach trees require a minimum number of chill hours at temperatures below 45 degrees Fahrenheit. Depending on the variety, that requirement can range from <a href="https://newswire.caes.uga.edu/story/6157/peach-crop.html">500 to 800 hours</a>. The cool weather signals the tree to save up energy and resources. Once a tree reaches its minimum cold exposure, it can suspend its dormancy and resume growing in the spring.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="A road sign with a peach on it welcomes travelers to Georgia on July 24, 2023, in Fort Valley, Georgia. It reads, “Welcome to Georgia. We’re glad Georgia’s on your mind.”" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vmJd0wZndS5zqkhqNvgIvI_5Fdg=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25234718/GettyImages_1568145839.jpeg">
<cite>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Peaches are Georgia’s iconic fruit, but warming winters are threatening harvests.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="E7Fw6J">However, with warmer winters, peach trees are experiencing seasonal insomnia. It’s disrupting the timing of when they blossom, making it harder for farmers to ensure they’re pollinated and end up bearing fruit. “A lot of times they bring in bees, so they want to have the maximum amount of pollination in a certain amount of time,” Knox said. “What happens when you don’t get enough chill hours is that the plants will still produce buds, but they’re not all ready to bloom at the same time.”</p>
<p id="RREC58">If warming continues at its current pace, Georgia will face <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/7/8/94">more frequent seasons</a> where it won’t be cold enough to grow many common peach varieties. The optimal growing regions for fruit like peaches and apples are going to shift northward, according to Knox: “Maybe they’ll grow more in north Georgia rather than in central Georgia where they do now.”</p>
<p id="Xnw884">This is just one example of how much the world as we know it counts on cool weather and the stakes of losing it. Another critical winter threshold is the freezing point of water. In places like the Sierra Nevada, snow serves as a water battery, charging up in the winter to power streams and rivers in the western US throughout the year. Warmer winters can thus fuel a <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/23550073/california-floods-rainfall-weather-climate-change-whiplash">weather whiplash</a> with flooding in the winter and drought in the summer, even if overall precipitation doesn’t change very much. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Graph showing the number of unfrozen days across the US since 1979. " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vovxdwLHw1HmR3q6FX9NJF8aFbI=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25234565/freeze_thaw_download1_2023.png">
<cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-freeze-thaw-conditions" target="_blank">Environmental Protection Agency</a></cite>
<figcaption>The number of days with unfrozen ground is rising across the continental US. </figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="Uno0Eh">The loss of cold weather in the winter can also amplify warming through the spring and summer. “Earlier loss of spring snow cover more generally means that the strong spring sun can dry out the soil earlier, and when the soil dries out, it can warm up much faster,” Francis said. “This is contributing to summer heat waves, droughts, and more intense fire seasons.”</p>
<p id="ryAzKf">Warmer winters do have some upsides. Since the beginning of the 20th century, warming has <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-length-growing-season">extended the growing season by two weeks</a>. For farmers growing annual crops like corn or wheat, that can let them squeeze in more plantings in a year. Last year, the US saw increases in soy and wheat production, as well as a <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23971356/thanksgiving-2023-food-steak-olive-oil-record-heat-climate-change">record corn harvest</a>. But for orchards that bear fruit once a year, that longer season doesn’t offer much help. </p>
<p id="RrZAqm">Rising winter temperatures also mean that severe chills and sudden frost events may be less likely in some areas. A dip below freezing after plants begin to awaken from their winter slumber can damage fragile leaves, stems, and roots, thereby hurting crop yields. But even in a warmer climate, frost events can still occur within the ordinary chaos of weather — as it did with Georgia’s peaches last year — though their timing may change. “The national climate system is like a bowl of jello,” Knox said. “It’s always jiggling.”</p>
https://www.vox.com/climate/24043213/polar-vortex-extreme-cold-winter-climate-change-warmingUmair Irfan2023-12-27T07:30:00-05:002023-12-27T07:30:00-05:00How 7 scientists feel after the hottest year on record
<figure>
<img alt="Photo of sun setting behind clouds in a blazing orange sky." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XCRYDSeLzrk1grcMlVahfusVecE=/693x0:6240x4160/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73000804/GettyImages_1343480413.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>2023 is now the hottest year on record. | Chuchart Duangdaw/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What it’s like to study a world facing unprecedented changes.</p> <p id="KPjIpA">2023 is the hottest year in <a href="https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/2023-shatters-climate-records-major-impacts">at least 174 years</a> and recent months have been the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/11/09/earth-hottest-months-climate-warming/">hottest in 125,000 years</a>. All of that warming led to deadly <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23864998/heat-wave-south-america-brazil-australia-argentina-hemisphere-winter">heat waves</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23992678/el-nino-south-america-peru-bolivia-flood-drought-dengue-cop28-climate">disease outbreaks, floods, droughts</a>, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23792828/antarctica-heat-wave-sea-ice-level-record-el-nino">record low ice levels around Antarctica</a>. </p>
<p id="h7R7eq">The extreme weather this year stems in part from natural variability, including a powerful <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23738846/el-nino-2023-weather-heat-wave-climate-change-disaster-flood-rain">El Niño</a> warming pattern in the Pacific Ocean that reshaped weather around the world. But beneath these cycles, humanity’s ravenous appetite for coal, oil, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/fossil-fuels" data-source="encore">natural gas</a> is <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/broken-record-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels-jump-again">driving up concentrations of heat-trapping gasses</a> in the atmosphere to levels the Earth hasn’t witnessed for <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide">3 million years</a>. </p>
<p id="Dyp67y">This year may be the first time that annual temperatures have risen <a href="https://www.vox.com/23969523/climate-change-cop28-paris-1-5-c-uae-2023-record-warm">1.5 degrees Celsius, 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above the global average</a> at the dawn of the industrial revolution. Under the 2015 Paris agreement, just about every country in the world agreed to keep the planet’s average temperature from rising more than 2°C, striving to stay below 1.5°C. A single year rising past this level doesn’t mean this target is toast, but if people keep heating up the planet, a year like <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/2023/7/5/23784587/hottest-day-heat-wave-recorded-temperature-climate-change">2023 will become one of the coolest</a> we’ll experience in the rest of our lives.</p>
<p id="h2Xpfd">Earlier this month, leaders from around the world wrapped the largest climate conference in history aimed at preventing this outcome. The <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/24000157/cop28-climate-conference-uae-dubai-winners-losers-fossil-fuels-methane">COP28</a> meeting in the United Arab Emirates produced an agreement that explicitly called on countries to reduce fossil fuel use for the first time and provide more money to countries facing destruction worsened by warming. But the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/08e08334-f637-4a4f-8374-3f6c24ba7dd2">commitments made so far are still not enough</a> to limit warming to 1.5°C, and greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. </p>
<p id="4a4Rsa">Half a world away, scientists who study this warming and its consequences gathered at the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco. Climate change is not an abstraction for these researchers, and many are observing it in real time, often in areas that have personal stakes for them. Looking back on the hottest year on record and what little humanity has done about it, some are reckoning with how their own work fits in. From the retreat of Arctic ice to rising demand for air conditioning, scientists with their fingers on the pulse of the planet are experiencing a mix of optimism, dread, and urgency as they endeavor to make their research practical in the real world. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="People in a conventional hall with scientific posters. Signs read: “Cryosphere” and “Earth Cover”" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7zn2h_2SJFYh7_acFYxT4TrxnlE=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25174092/PXL_20231215_010615844.MP.jpg">
<cite>Umair Irfan/Vox</cite>
<figcaption>Researchers present their latest results on posters at the 2023 American Geophysical Union annual meeting.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="DTLLr2">I spoke with seven researchers studying Earth’s changes from different angles. Their comments below have been lightly edited.</p>
<p id="QOgii6"><a href="https://fish.uw.edu/faculty/daniel-schindler/">Daniel Schindler</a> at the University of Washington researches how <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate" data-source="encore">climate change</a> affects aquatic ecosystems, including Alaska’s sockeye, chinook, and chum salmon. He was one of several scientists presenting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/">Arctic Report Card</a> for 2023 at the conference. The Arctic has been <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3">warming four times faster</a> than the rest of the planet, and this year, the region saw its warmest summer since 1900 (when record-keeping began), with knock-on effects like Canada’s worst wildfire season on record. As negotiators in the United Arab Emirates bickered over the future of the planet, Schindler noted that the effects of climate change are underway now, and it’s already reshaping ecosystems and human communities:</p>
<blockquote>
<p id="Wj8k98">I think the reality is, if you look at Western Alaska, climate change is not something that’s coming down the pipe somewhere in the future. It is happening now, it’s been happening for decades. And whether you’re talking about fish or people or birds, there are real impacts that we need to deal with right now.</p>
<p id="M3KzTK">And when you hear about what’s going on at COP28, there may be a reason to be optimistic. But the reality is, we need action on the ground right now, not to necessarily turn around climate change immediately, but to deal with the fact that we’re going to be challenged by it, now and for decades to come, so we need action now at local scales.</p>
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<p id="cHfLfb"><a href="https://www.uaf.edu/experts/rick-thoman.php">Rick Thoman</a>, who studies Alaska’s climate and weather at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, echoed the call for more immediate steps to deal with global warming, noting that the Arctic has been at the leading edge of climate change long before it reached the extremes seen this year. The communities there may have important lessons for the rest of the world: </p>
<blockquote><p id="nBX7zk">As Alaskans, as peoples in the Arctic, we are living this change every day. And we have no choice, no choice at all, other than to work with what’s happening. We need the big picture solutions, but everyone — Indigenous communities, all the people of the Arctic — are having to adapt right here, right now. It didn’t start today. It didn’t start yesterday. This has been ongoing for years. Listen to the elders. This change has been happening for decades, century-scale changes. And Arctic peoples are still here and we’re still going to be here.</p></blockquote>
<p id="sUrlby"><a href="https://cas.uoregon.edu/directory/profiles/all/scooley2">Sarah Cooley</a>, an assistant professor at the University of Oregon, is studying how climate change is altering ice in places like coastal Alaska and has found that when you zoom in, the way it affects people can be quite complicated. How ice melts and the impacts it has on communities can vary drastically, even in nearby regions. With COP28 still falling short of global climate goals, Cooley is also looking into the way the success or failure of international negotiations will manifest on the ground:</p>
<blockquote>
<p id="QBP6u4">In this broader context of warming climate, loss of ice, thawing permafrost, threats of coastal erosion, and sea level rise, that’s kind of this giant signal that each person experiences differently depending on their interaction with their environment.</p>
<p id="eHAn4h">I get really excited about being able to do research that is locally relevant. One of the things we did in this project is we’re thinking about how Paris climate agreement targets translate to local on-the-ground experiences. If you tell somebody that the Earth is going to warm by 1.5°C or 2°C, that’s an incredibly abstract concept because the difference to us of two degrees doesn’t mean anything. But if you can translate that experience of two degrees warming to an actual on-the-ground experience that’s highly localized — so let’s say a loss of 30 days of ice versus 50 days of ice, which is a huge deal for someone living in the community to lose a month of ice versus losing two months of ice — that to me is really exciting work that we can kind of take large-scale big numbers that are really abstract and bring them down to a local experience.</p>
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<p id="kFShlZ"><a href="https://scienceandtechnology.jpl.nasa.gov/people/r_green">Robert Green</a>, a scientist at <a href="https://www.vox.com/space" data-source="encore">NASA</a>’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is leading a project to <a href="https://earth.jpl.nasa.gov/emit/">track mineral dust</a> using instruments on the International Space Station. This is an important mechanism that can change <a href="https://www.vox.com/air-quality" data-source="encore">air quality</a>, the flow of nutrients across the planet, and the amount of sunlight hitting the Earth, which can cool the planet. Green is also keeping an eye on methane, a greenhouse gas with about 30 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide. At COP28, countries made <a href="https://www.vox.com/23996919/cop28-climate-methane-pledge-oil-gas-emissions-agriculture">new pledges to curb methane</a>, and Green said scientists can help them meet their targets: </p>
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<p id="kNqZ1R">We can tell people where the point sources of methane are, where leaks are happening, and give people the information to address those leaks. And that’s something that is just so important to do. Nobody wants to waste money out of a leaking pipeline. Let’s go ahead and fix those leaks, and we also reduce the impact of methane for climate change.</p>
<p id="6O3ITx">I’m excited to be making a difference. I’m an optimistic person, and we can work together to address this problem. It’s not an easy problem, but the pieces are coming together. So I’m going to remain hopeful.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Man on stage next to projection of the International Space Station" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0CdKtnJM2cH82aPX4ULhrrWr7Nk=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25174086/PXL_20231213_225800412_2.jpeg">
<cite>Umair Irfan/Vox</cite>
<figcaption>Scientist Robert Green presents NASA’s project to track mineral dust and other substances from the International Space Station.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="VzhZ2C"><a href="https://s3research.usc.edu/about-us/stepp-mayes/">Stepp Mayes</a>, a doctoral student at the University of Southern California, studies how people use electricity and the ensuing consequences for the climate and for health. Lately he’s been examining the growing <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23067049/heat-wave-air-conditioning-cooling-india-climate-change">demand for air conditioning as temperatures rise</a> and the stresses that imparts on the <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy" data-source="encore">power grid</a>. As temperatures go up, people install more cooling systems, run them longer, and crank them up during the hottest times of day. That’s often when the power grid is struggling the most to provide electricity. The extreme heat this year coupled with <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23893057/power-electricity-grid-heat-wave-record-blackout-outage-climate">record-high energy demand</a> signals that this work is only going to become more important:</p>
<blockquote><p id="q8PlfF">It makes me nervous. There’s a big intersection because we’re all about looking at the relationship between temperature and AC use and AC penetration. I think that people are directly responding to increasing temperature, and I think we are going to see that continue as temperatures continue to rise, where our reliance on AC — as a public health issue, and as a grid issue — becomes larger and larger. </p></blockquote>
<p id="IrVet6"><a href="https://explorer-directory.nationalgeographic.org/aliyah-griffith">Aliyah Griffith</a>, a doctoral student at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, studies coral reef infrastructure around places like Barbados, from satellites and from the water. Griffith is also the founder and CEO of <a href="https://www.mahoganymermaids.com/about-us">Mahogany Mermaids</a>, a nonprofit that works to encourage women of color to pursue careers in science, particularly in aquatic fields. The extreme temperatures this year, including <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/23801858/caribbean-heat-wave-dominica-ocean-marine-sea-coral-fish">heat waves in the ocean</a>, have renewed her determination:</p>
<blockquote><p id="MJx6G0">My family is from Barbados. Not only does that make me feel more driven to answer questions from a scientist’s perspective — how can we help the reefs? How can we understand what they need and what they’re facing? — but also: What do the communities need? How can we interact with their local governments, their local institutions, and understand where they can be elevated? You have to really respect a lot of the work and effort that they’ve already done to see what can change in the future.</p></blockquote>
<p id="H3FaT5"><a href="https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/soestwp/about/directory/gordon-walker/">Gordon Walker</a>, a researcher at the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa, studies paleoclimate, particularly how past shifts in the climate and weather influenced historical events. For instance, changing climate conditions in Africa and the Caribbean were a factor in the slave trade and may have played a part in uprisings. For Walker, the role of the climate in historical periods of unrest is adding urgency for the need to fill in data gaps as the climate breaches records, particularly in regions experiencing the most acute impacts of warming today: </p>
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<p id="lkGZ2k">For me — my focus being the Caribbean and Africa, and the transatlantic slave trade, and climate variability associated with those regions and the historical event of the trade — I think that it’s important for us to collect data on regions in the global South — the Caribbean, South America, Africa — because a lot of the science and research is focused on the global North. </p>
<p id="hKFcwe">I think it’s imperative, especially in areas where we don’t have a lot of data, to start collecting data and applying the powers or the tools of analysis that we have for climate to the global South. Because a lot of countries in those regions are not necessarily resource-poor in terms of raw material but resource-poor in terms of economies and having the ability to respond to extreme climate. So I think the greater lead time we have with projections based on studying the past, the better for those countries to be able to respond, especially with limited economies, as compared to countries in the global North. </p>
</blockquote>
https://www.vox.com/24008047/2023-warmest-year-cop28-climate-change-scienceUmair Irfan