Vox: All Posts by Tom Mainellihttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52517/voxv.png2016-11-16T12:30:02-05:00https://www.vox.com/authors/tom-mainelli/rss2016-11-16T12:30:02-05:002016-11-16T12:30:02-05:00With Apple now selling used iPhones, the new phone market may have peaked
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/alB6EIFgoY2G2Wv6JRh7ByYZ6Ng=/126x80:1009x742/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51864977/iphone_se_review_vpavic_verge_14.0.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>Expect Apple to start selling refurbished versions of the iPhone SE —which has a starting price of $399 new — in the $299 range or lower. | Vjeran Pavic / The Verge</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, buying a smartphone is a lot like buying a car.</p> <p id="CrVhyS"><em>A version of this essay was originally published at </em><a href="https://techpinions.com/apples-newest-product-used-iphones/47946"><em>Tech.pinions</em></a><em>, a website dedicated to informed opinions, insight and perspective on the tech industry.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="d5ZxR9">
<p id="Qc9Km9">Last week, Apple started <a href="https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/08/apple-selling-refurbished-iphones/">selling refurbished iPhones</a> in the U.S. through Apple.com. Of course, wireless customers have long had the opportunity to buy used iPhones (and other brands) from their carriers and other retailers and online sellers. However, the fact that Apple is now offering the devices direct (along with long-available refurbished products such as Macs, iPads and iPods) is notable. It reflects both the maturing nature of the market and Apple’s desire to put the iPhone into the hands of more budget-constrained smartphone buyers while still making enviable margins.</p>
<h2 id="aKrZ7W">The collapse of subsidy models</h2>
<p id="DoyWd9">Just a few years ago, the U.S. smartphone market was almost entirely subsidy-driven, which meant that few people actually knew how much a smartphone cost. What they knew was that roughly every two years they could pay $200 to their carrier and get a new smartphone. When U.S. carriers began to move away from the subsidy model, many people were shocked to realize that they were paying upward of $600 or $700 over the lifetime of that phone. As that realization took hold, the market began to bring forward a long list of new financing options.</p>
<div class="c-float-right"><aside id="JGI03k"><q>One-year-old phones still retain a great deal of their value, which is why Apple got into the game itself.</q></aside></div>
<p id="7YsS8N">Today, buying a smartphone is a lot like buying a car. If you’ve got the cash, you can pay for the whole thing up front, or you can pay through an installment plan (essentially a loan), or you can sign up for something very akin to a car lease, in which you pay a monthly fee and get a new phone roughly every year. All of the plans effectively shift the cost of buying a new phone around, but none really help lower the cost. That’s why the refurbished market is important. While there are fewer options when purchasing a refurbished phone (you typically pay all up front), the savings can be substantial.</p>
<h2 id="kFEbeT">Certified pre-owned luxury phones</h2>
<p id="AgSyFS">Back in September 2015, Apple launched its own iPhone Upgrade Plan along with its iPhone 6s lineup, directly competing with its carrier partners. Apple customers could pay a monthly fee (starting at $32 per month), and then, a year later, swap that iPhone for the next one. The iPhones Apple is now selling online are likely among the first batch of phones it collected through that program.</p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="rrp90k"><q>Apple is adding significant additional dollars of per-device profit for every phone it first ships out as part of the upgrade program and then reclaims and resells a year later.</q></aside></div>
<p id="6Pej5o">Companies such as Gazelle have long bought people’s old smartphones, but in the early days, those phones were typically several years old, which meant companies often shipped them to emerging markets, where they were either resold or scrapped for parts. One-year-old phones, on the other hand, still retain a great deal of their value, which is why Apple got into the game itself. In fact, based on IDC’s estimates, Apple is adding significant additional dollars of per-device profit for every phone it first ships out as part of the upgrade program and then reclaims and resells a year later. All the while, it’s also increasing the number of iOS users and bolstering services revenues as a result.</p>
<p id="uxS5pQ">So, for example, right now you can buy a 16 gigabyte iPhone 6s for $449, $100 less than the same new model on BestBuy.com (Apple cleverly doesn’t offer a new version of the 6s on its site with the same memory configuration, but a 32GB version of the 6s runs $649 on Apple.com). Similarly, a refurbished 64GB 6s Plus sells for $589, which is $750 new on BestBuy.com.</p>
<p id="UF9ePU">The result: Buyers interested in buying an iPhone now have a wider range of options available to them. The entry-level price for what was Apple’s top-of-the-line phone a little more than a year ago now starts at $449 instead of at $549. Not exactly cheap, but certainly more attainable for somebody who is able to pay the entire cost up front. At some point, I would expect Apple to start selling refurbished versions of the iPhone SE, which has a starting price of $399 new. We could expect prices in the $299 range or lower.</p>
<p id="lxPGvN">Most companies that sell refurbished phones closely inspect those phones before reselling, offering what amounts to a certified pre-owned checklist at a used-car dealer. One of the advantages of buying refurbished from Apple, however, is it not only certifies the phones but it also installs a brand-new battery and outer shell. The new battery piece is huge, as that’s clearly one of the areas of most concern when buying a used device. And by including the new battery (which costs Apple very little), the company ensures that the buyer has a good experience for the life of the product.</p>
<h2 id="YjaN5o">Who buys used?<strong> </strong>
</h2>
<p id="Ai4NxH">Techies might not find the idea of buying a used device appealing (they’re likely the ones signing up for the annual refresh and creating the supply of one-year-old phones) but a growing percentage of regular consumers clearly see the value. In a recent IDC survey of U.S. smartphone users, 26 percent said they were “somewhat likely” to buy a well-maintained one-year-old phone if the price were lower; another 14 percent said they were “highly likely” to do so. Among current iPhone owners specifically, those two percentages were 25 percent and 9 percent.</p>
<aside id="Y4Khb3"><q>While there’s clearly a market for refurbished iPhones here in the U.S., the larger play for Apple long-term is its ability to move refurbished iPhones into markets outside of the country.</q></aside><p id="G8Sd8u">While there’s clearly a market for refurbished iPhones here in the U.S., the larger play for Apple long-term is its ability to move refurbished iPhones into markets outside of the country. For years, pundits have wondered when Apple would ship an inexpensive iPhone geared toward emerging markets. It seems increasingly clear Apple’s answer is to sell refurbished iPhones instead.</p>
<p id="ca0S9s">It’s a smart plan that will likely work quite well for Apple once it figures out two key issues: Which countries’ consumers are amenable to used products (not all are) and which countries’ regulations will allow refurbs to flow in (not all will). Once Apple sorts these issues out, I expect we will start to see Apple itself promoting refurbished products in more countries, at more prices.</p>
<p id="rMGJV2">At IDC, we’re now <a href="http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=US41737016">closely monitoring</a> the used smartphone market as we firmly believe that growth here could have a significant impact on shipments of new phones in the future. Apple won’t be immune to the potential negative impact of this secondary market. But by creating its own virtuous cycle through its upgrade plans and refurbished offerings, it makes more money now, and better controls its market position down the road.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="an6oOW">
<p id="mqu9rn"><a href="https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF002764"><em>Tom Mainelli</em></a><em> has covered the technology industry since 1995. He manages </em><a href="https://www.idc.com"><em>IDC</em></a><em>’s Devices and Displays group, which covers a broad range of hardware categories including PCs, tablets, smartphones, thin clients, displays and wearables. Mainelli is also driving new research at IDC around the technologies of augmented and virtual reality. Reach him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/tommainelli"><em>@TomMainelli</em></a>.</p>
<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/11/16/13631116/apple-used-iphones-refurbished-resale-newest-productTom Mainelli2016-10-31T12:45:03-04:002016-10-31T12:45:03-04:00With the Touch Bar, Apple again puts its faith in third-party developers
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Y7Mz9cdgQX3aiAc8xNoCsl1k8Z4=/304x0:5168x3648/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51609689/Apple_20MacBook_20Touch_20Bar.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Emoticons are displayed on the Touch Bar on a new Apple MacBook Pro laptop. | Stephen Lam / Getty</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And it makes the calculator the killer app. Seriously — you heard it here first.</p> <p id="xWVssg"><em>A version of this essay was originally published at </em><a href="https://techpinions.com/with-touch-bar-apple-again-puts-faith-in-third-party-developers/47751"><em>Tech.pinions</em></a><em>, a website dedicated to informed opinions, insight and perspective on the tech industry.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="cjK0zQ">
<p id="O0AylC">Apple introduced <a href="https://live.recode.net/apple-event-liveblog-mac-computers-live-october-27/?_ga=1.109310337.525951046.1476463477">new MacBook Pros</a> last week, and in addition to bright new screens, fast new processors and — of course — ever-thinner form factors, Apple introduced a new hardware feature called the <a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/10/27/13439132/macbook-pro-touch-bar-price">Touch Bar</a>. It’s a high-quality miniature screen that runs the length of the keyboard, replacing the old F-keys row above the numeric keys. In person, this display looks great, and it has a unique coating that makes using it feel super smooth.</p>
<p id="PH9sxY">As you might expect, Apple’s Mac OS and first-party apps use Touch Bar right away, but if it is going to become a must-have feature worthy of driving Mac buyers to upgrade, third-party developers will also have to embrace it. At launch, Apple already had buy-in from big firms such as Microsoft and Adobe. But the real question is whether the rest of the developer community will follow suit, and if so, how soon?</p>
<h2 id="hwfelC">Sticking to its guns</h2>
<p id="xPK8O6"><a href="https://techpinions.com/when-will-we-see-a-touch-enabled-mac/46812">I’ve lamented before</a> that, after using a number of touch-enabled Windows notebooks, using a non-touch Mac notebook felt like a step backward. It’s easy to see Apple’s decision to put a small touchscreen above the keyboard as a simple, stubborn unwillingness to bend to the larger trends in the PC industry, just as it once resisted larger smartphone screens. To its credit, with the Touch Bar, Apple has put together a touch technology that its executives clearly believe is a better option than a touchscreen.</p>
<p id="0cgHjP">Apple has long suggested that reaching up to touch the screen of a Mac is unnatural, and that it breaks the usage model of the notebook. In theory, I agree that touching a notebook screen seems unnatural. But I also know, now that I’ve been doing it for a while, that it feels pretty natural to me to reach up to touch the screen to scroll a web page.</p>
<div class="c-float-right"><aside id="roSzri"><q>Apple has put together a touch technology that its executives clearly believe is a better option than a touchscreen.</q></aside></div>
<p id="znUaug">Keeping the Touch Bar on the horizontal axis means, as a user, that I’m not reaching for the screen. But it also means I’m looking down from the screen toward the keys to find the specific custom keys that each application serves up on the Touch Bar. I suppose that over time you could develop some muscle memory for the unique Touch Bar keys you use often, but that seems unlikely.</p>
<p id="HS4N3U">After the Apple keynote on Thursday, I participated in a deep-dive session, and had the chance to spend some time with the new hardware. I can tell you this much: The Touch Bar is addictively enjoyable to use.</p>
<p id="iknTkJ">It works as you would expect for tasks such as scrolling through pictures and video (fast and fun), changing system settings (precise as physical buttons) and using the calculator (it’s the killer app — seriously, you heard it here first).</p>
<p id="Urz1e0">But where the Touch Bar really shows promise is with large, complicated apps such as Microsoft Word and Excel, and Adobe Photoshop. These apps tend to have tons of features that get lost in icon-dense ribbons or buried deep in drop-down menus. With Touch Bar, the developer can surface some of these features, making them visible and more easily accessible for the average user. Power users might scoff, but for many people this level of increased visibility could lead to real productivity gains.</p>
<p id="vY4GHt">Apple tells me that it is very easy for a developer to enable the Touch Bar for their apps, and noted that partners appearing onstage this week did so in a very short amount of time. It will be interesting to see if other major Mac software developers do the same in the coming weeks. And it will be perhaps more telling if smaller developers, with more constrained development time and budgets, decide such an update is worthwhile for their users.</p>
<h2 id="A1wWWa">Touch ID Impact or 3D Touch Impact?</h2>
<p id="m4IBci">What’s not clear to me yet is whether the Touch Bar is one of those new features that will instantly resonate with customers and become a part of their daily lives or if it is merely an interesting technology that makes for a great demo but never really takes off in common use. A good example of the first was Apple’s introduction of Touch ID on the iPhone (and available now on the MacBook Pros with Touch Bar). That technology fundamentally changed the way the vast majority of iPhone users interact with their phone every single time they pick it up. An example of the latter is 3D Touch, an interesting technology that I often forget is on my phone unless I accidentally trigger it. 3D Touch may eventually become an integral part of the iPhone interface, but right now it doesn’t feel like most people see it that way. It’s too soon to tell which way the Touch Bar will go.</p>
<p id="tQPOqS">One thing is clear: Apple sees it as a feature some customers will pay to have, as the 13-inch MacBook Pro with Touch Bar carries a roughly $300 premium over a comparable model without it. (Note: The Touch Bar model also has a better CPU.) After a brief hands-on, the Touch Bar feels to me like an important refinement to a tried-and-true interface. I’m not sure yet if it’s better or worse than a touchscreen, but I look forward to testing the hardware in the coming weeks to see how it impacts my usage. And I’ll be watching closely to see which developers embrace the technology and which do not.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="8d4Jwe">
<p id="1IvFe1"><a href="https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF002764"><em>Tom Mainelli</em></a><em> has covered the technology industry since 1995. He manages IDC’s Devices and Displays group, which covers a broad range of hardware categories including PCs, tablets, smartphones, thin clients, displays and wearables. Mainelli is also driving new research at IDC around the technologies of augmented and virtual reality. Reach him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/tommainelli"><em>@TomMainelli</em></a>.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="dKvMBu">
<h3 id="14YKDQ">Watch: A closer look at Apple’s Touch Bar</h3>
<div id="pwtt8U">
<div data-analytics-viewport="video" data-analytics-action="volume:view:article:middle" data-analytics-label="MacBook_Touchbar|24218" data-volume-uuid="69b50cea8" data-volume-id="24218" data-analytics-placement="article:middle" data-volume-placement="article" data-volume-autoplay="undefined" id="volume-placement-97" class="volume-video"></div>
</div>
<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/10/31/13478164/apple-macbook-pro-touch-bar-touchscreen-third-party-developersTom Mainelli2016-09-20T14:30:08-04:002016-09-20T14:30:08-04:00What the iPhone 7 reveals about Apple’s augmented-reality plans
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dOaMno7tm4ZdiGRxqS2576xjeCo=/0x0:2811x2108/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/50942835/Tim_20Cook_20Good_20Morning_20America.0.jpg" />
</figure>
<p>Tim Cook can’t stop talking about how big an opportunity augmented reality represents.</p> <p id="TpsCaI"><em>A version of this essay was originally published at </em><a href="https://techpinions.com/what-the-iphone-7-says-about-apples-future-augmented-reality-plans/47207"><em>Tech.pinions</em></a><em>, a website dedicated to informed opinions, insight and perspective on the tech industry.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="6TT49l">
<p id="uKK5AJ">I believe that Apple’s next big iPhone release is going to feature augmented-reality technology. Obviously, nobody at Apple has said anything about such a product. But the now-shipping iPhone 7 Plus, complete with dual-camera technology, is the latest hint Apple is moving in that direction. This, along with several high-profile company purchases (Metaio in 2015 and PrimeSense in 2013), points to this technology eventually appearing in products.</p>
<p id="tFk7sV">One more thing: Apple CEO Tim Cook can’t stop talking about how big an opportunity augmented reality represents.</p>
<h2 id="MhCtnP">Dual-camera technology</h2>
<p id="Rfd2Fr">Apple executives spent a great deal of time during the recent iPhone 7 launch event talking about the current and future capabilities of the two 12-megapixel cameras integrated into the iPhone 7 Plus. The first camera is a 28mm-equivalent lens that most would consider wide angle (the iPhone 7 has the same camera). The second is a 56mm equivalent and, while Apple’s Phil Schiller kept calling it a telephoto lens, the reality is that it’s actually more of a portrait lens. </p>
<div class="c-float-right"><aside id="ZfMZ1v"><q>Here’s my bet: When Apple heads toward its next big hardware revision, we’ll see an iPhone (and maybe an iPad Pro) with AR capabilities.</q></aside></div>
<p id="j5JFji">In addition to giving the phone an effective 2x optical zoom, the dual cameras enable a long list of software capabilities that should result in notably better photos for most users. That’s interesting (and very useful), but what interests me more about this hardware is the fact that Apple could use the dual cameras to capture information about the objects and space in front of the cameras. Two cameras allow the device to capture and create depth-mapping information.</p>
<p id="T47bEh">Earlier this year, <a href="https://techpinions.com/lenovos-tango-phone-a-preview-of-ar-for-the-masses/46319">I wrote about Lenovo’s Phab Pro 2</a>, the first Tango-enabled smartphone. Tango is Google’s handheld augmented-reality platform. The Lenovo phone actually uses three cameras and a host of other sensors to capture motion, depth and local area information about the phone’s surroundings. The result is a device that knows where it is in space, which lets you do many fascinating things in augmented reality. To vastly oversimplify, think about what Pokémon Go does on your current smartphone, but many times smarter and more powerful.</p>
<h2 id="T0NOS7">Two key Apple acquisitions</h2>
<p id="HvOho1">Apple’s recent purchase of Metaio and PrimeSense makes me think it’s moving toward this handheld augmented-reality future. <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2015/05/28/apple-metaio/">Apple bought Metaio in May, 2015</a>. It was a German company, started in 2003, that sold software that pulled together camera images and computer-generated objects. Before the purchase, numerous companies used the technology to create applications for use in different vertical markets including retail, industrial and automotive. After completing the purchase, Apple took the product off the market. Many assume that Apple is working to create custom silicon in conjunction with this software for future products.</p>
<p id="rS4aEG">PrimeSense was an Israeli 3-D sensor company that <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2013/11/24/apple-primesense-acquisition-confirmed/">Apple purchased for $345 million in 2013</a>. The company had a mobile-sized 3-D sensor (code-named Capri) that worked with its software technology to scan and capture three-dimensional objects. The company was also a founding member of the open source framework called OpenNI (Natural Interaction) designed to capture body motion and hand tracking. Stories at the time of the acquisition noted that the Capri sensor was relatively expensive to produce, which kept it from gaining the attention of other device manufacturers. This is the type of tech Apple loves to integrate into its hardware to drive additional differentiation from the rest of the market.</p>
<h2 id="irlb7X"><strong>Tim Cook on augmented reality</strong></h2>
<p id="dYJzEu">Finally, there are Tim Cook’s comments. <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2016/7/26/12290920/apple-augmented-reality-ar-tim-cook">In the most recent Apple earnings call</a>, Cook pointed out that, while he thinks both virtual and augmented reality are interesting, he sees a much bigger opportunity in augmented reality, especially regarding commercial use cases (I strongly agree). More recently, in an interview on “<a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/exclusive-apple-ceo-tim-cook-prefers-augmented-reality/story?id=42064913">Good Morning America</a>,” Cook once again spelled out his enthusiasm for augmented reality. He noted that by using AR, two people can share a common experience, which is hard to do in the heavily isolated world of VR.</p>
<p id="zIFiwO">Now, it may well be that Cook’s recent comments around AR versus VR are meant to throw people off Apple’s trail. In fact, I think it’s highly likely that Apple is working on both technologies and, eventually, we may well see some eyewear that utilizes not only the technologies above but a future version of the company’s new W1 chip currently shipping in the AirPods. But here’s my bet: When Apple heads toward its next big hardware revision, we’ll see an iPhone (and maybe an iPad Pro) with AR capabilities.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="tKJaCF">
<p id="BgjzoB"><a href="https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF002764"><em>Tom Mainelli</em></a><em> has covered the technology industry since 1995. He manages IDC’s Devices and Displays group, which covers a broad range of hardware categories including PCs, tablets, smartphones, thin clients, displays and wearables. Mainelli is also driving new research at IDC around the technologies of augmented and virtual reality. Reach him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/tommainelli"><em>@TomMainelli</em></a>.</p>
<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/9/20/12990110/apple-iphone-7-augmented-reality-plans-tim-cookTom Mainelli2016-08-15T10:00:06-04:002016-08-15T10:00:06-04:00When will we see a touch-enabled Mac?
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/u-QXsjlqjs8LFW-Tz9QaUCE5ODw=/164x0:5284x3840/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/50387859/touchscreen_LDprod.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>LDprod / Shutterstock</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s simply no longer amusing when I absent-mindedly tap on my Macbook Air’s screen.</p> <p id="mgY1a6"><em>A version of this essay was originally published at </em><a href="https://techpinions.com/when-will-we-see-a-touch-enabled-mac/46812"><em>Tech.pinions</em></a><em>, a website dedicated to informed opinions, insight and perspective on the tech industry.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="XG5HUw">
<p id="kXJ1Op">I never wanted a touchscreen on my notebook. In fact, in 2012, when Intel and Microsoft convinced PC manufacturers (who were staring down the existential threat of cheap Android tablets) to add touch (and substantial cost) to their Windows 8 notebooks, I thought it was a bad idea. And it was.</p>
<p id="8lcUzE">Those early products weren’t very good. The touch accuracy was terrible, the OS integration was flaky and the app support was nonexistent. But over the course of the next four years, the industry quietly worked out the kinks. Now, in 2016, I look down and realize that three of the four notebooks I use regularly have touch. And somewhere along the line, I started using it. Furthermore, unless I’m docked at my desk using a monitor, I use touch all the time, primarily when scrolling through web pages or documents. When I use that one non-touch notebook — a MacBook Air — I’m constantly reminded that the feature is missing.</p>
<p><q class="right">When Apple disappoints its Mac customers, while it may not risk much in terms of the bottom line, it does risk shaking the faith of the company’s most vocal and long-term customers.</q></p>
<p><br>Much has been written lately about Apple’s aging Mac lineup, so I won’t belabor the point. However, it’s worth noting that when Apple disappoints its Mac customers, while it may not risk much in terms of the bottom line, it does risk shaking the faith of the company’s most vocal and long-term customers. Those fans are clearly frustrated, if the last few quarters of slumping Mac shipments are any indication. The rumor mill is pointing to an imminent refresh, at least of the MacBook Pro. However, while it looks like the new notebook will have a touch-enabled, programmable bar above the keyboard, there’s no indication Apple is any closer to adding an actual touchscreen to the Mac.</p>
<p id="66kbDd">I find Apple’s unwillingness to add touch to the Mac both frustrating and somewhat noble. But I can’t help thinking back to how long the company resisted customers’ requests for a larger-screen iPhone. Some people even jumped ship to Android just to move beyond the iPhone’s four-inch display. Eventually Apple acquiesced and, with its large-sized iPhone 6 lineup, it won back many defectors and drove shipments to levels the likes of which it will forever try to match.</p>
<p id="BCyQ0s">Now, many will point to Apple’s continued insistence that, for many people, <a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/8/4/12371298/apple-ipad-pro-pc-replacement-pc">an iPad is a more ideal personal computer</a> than a notebook. And obviously, the iPad has touch. Others will note that, unlike the vocal demand for a larger-screened iPhone, very few people are publicly asking for touch on the Mac. I happen to think for many long-time Mac-only users, the lack of touch isn’t an issue, because non-touch Macs are all they’ve ever used. But for those of us who move between Windows and the Mac, the omission is becoming glaring. It seems obvious that, at some point, the next generation of potential Mac users — raised exclusively on touchscreens — will find the lack of touch on the Mac unacceptable.</p>
<h2 id="tO5Bik">A more fundamental issue?</h2>
<p id="nzxuiB">Apple may well have some highly logical, institutional, user-behavior-driven or design-focused reasons for leaving touch off the Mac. Or maybe Tim Cook just doesn’t care for it. But what if touch — and more broadly the Mac in general — has simply fallen victim to the design and management constraints of a company with an ever-expanding lineup of products both announced and in development? With executives focused on wearables, augmented reality, a car, numerous new services, iPads and — oh yeah — a small iPhone business, perhaps there’s little time left in the day to deal with processor updates for the Mac mini, let alone the idea of adding touch to the Mac.</p>
<p><q class="left">The next generation of potential Mac users — raised exclusively on touchscreens — will find the lack of touch on the Mac unacceptable.</q></p>
<p><br>Ben Thompson has thoroughly discussed the benefits of Apple’s functional organization <a href="https://stratechery.com/2016/apples-organizational-crossroads/">on his blog</a>. He also put forth the theory earlier this year that what makes Apple good at devices may fundamentally hamper its ability to be good at iterating on services. But what if the company’s current organizational structure is also beginning to limit its ability to consistently rev great hardware? Is it more likely that Apple executives made a conscious decision not to refresh the Mac Pro for what is closing in on 1,000 days, or have they just been too busy to deal with it in a meaningful way? At Apple, is it better or worse to let a device grow absurdly old, or to push a minor upgrade devoid of deeper product introspection?</p>
<p id="J1ykic">In the end, I bring up the subject of touch because, as noted, it took the broader PC industry several years to get it right. Apple’s vertical integration suggests that it would likely get the OS and hardware closer to correct right out of the gate. However, there would still be a substantial lag before most Mac software caught up.</p>
<p id="TLJyhm">Maybe it’s true that Apple’s devotion to the idea that the iPad is the best touch-based Apple computer for most people precludes it from adding touch to the Mac. Maybe they just don’t want to deal with the associated challenges when the payoff seems hard to quantify. But couldn’t the same be said of a feature such as 3D Touch on the iPhone?</p>
<p id="jSZqfa">As a Mac user who spends an equal if not greater amount of time in a touch-based Windows world, I’d sure like to see touch added to the Mac at some time in the future. At this point, it’s simply no longer amusing when I absent-mindedly tap on my Macbook Air’s screen.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="pJxISw">
<p id="rTRhcR"><a href="https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF002764"><em>Tom Mainelli</em></a><em> has covered the technology industry since 1995. He manages IDC’s Devices and Displays group, which covers a broad range of hardware categories including PCs, tablets, smartphones, thin clients, displays and wearables. Mainelli is also driving new research at IDC around the technologies of augmented and virtual reality. Reach him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/tommainelli"><em>@TomMainelli</em></a>.</p>
<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/8/15/12475620/touch-enabled-mac-computer-touchscreen-laptop-imac-macbookTom Mainelli2016-07-06T08:00:03-04:002016-07-06T08:00:03-04:00The future of company devices may be ‘as-a-Service’
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zRAOriwcPSBQWXAiuF9aJKsVHFM=/0x0:923x692/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/50032259/HP_20Vancouver.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>HP recently opened a new campus in Vancouver and launched a major Device-as-a-Service campaign. | HP</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Procurement and deployment of the PC and other devices is about to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century.</p> <p id="QMiDYd"><em>A version of this essay was originally published at </em><a href="https://techpinions.com/the-future-of-company-devices-may-be-as-a-service/46464"><em>Tech.pinions</em></a><em>, a website dedicated to informed opinions, insight and perspective on the tech industry.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr">
<p id="EMLFcY">Procurement and deployment of the PC and other devices is about to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century as a growing number of companies explore the potential benefits of PC-as-a-Service (PCaaS) and Device-as-a-Service (DaaS).</p>
<p id="mqx5hc">We’ve been researching this trend for some time at <a href="https://www.idc.com">IDC</a>, surveying IT buyers and talking with industry players. Last week, HP launched a <a href="http://www8.hp.com/us/en/services/daas.html">major DaaS marketing campaign</a>. The company, which cut its teeth on the hardware-as-a-service model through its print managed-services business, has been quietly rolling out DaaS solutions through its channel partners around the world for months. This trend has legs because, done right, it has the potential to be mutually beneficial for customers and the industry.</p>
<h2 id="LjMKIO">Defining DaaS</h2>
<p id="KeH8sL">Some will dismiss DaaS as the industry merely jumping on the "as-a-service" naming bandwagon. And truthfully, the name can be a bit confusing, especially when you consider that Desktop-as-a-Service is already a thing.</p>
<p><q class="right">Why would a company want to pay a monthly fee for a device versus simply buying it outright?</q></p>
<p>Despite the matching acronyms, the two are notably different. Desktop-as-a-Service serves up a data-center-based, highly-secured virtualized desktop, accessible on a wide range of devices, including thin clients, desktops, notebooks, tablets and phones. Device-as-a-Service, conversely, serves up the hardware itself. Plans vary, but typically they include deployment, management, services and eventual end-of-life recycling of the device. Companies choose a length of service, typically around three years, and pay a monthly fee for each device.</p>
<p id="VWNCJc">Earlier this year, IDC surveyed U.S.-based IT buyers across a range of company sizes about PCaaS, and found that about one-quarter were already actively looking at such services. Among those who were not, nearly 20 percent said they had plans to do so in the next 12 months. Why would a company want to pay a monthly fee for a device versus simply buying it outright? Among respondents, the top three selected reasons included the ability to deploy only the PC assets they need, based on workload, as well as the ability to transition PC procurement from CAPEX to OPEX, and the ability to reduce IT workloads by offloading procurement and management to a third party. Let’s look at each of these more closely.</p>
<h2 id="bIeGHU">Key benefits of DaaS</h2>
<p id="Msrj8c">The ability to deploy only assets as needed based on workload is a big one. This means a company has the ability to flex up, adding devices as needed when its workforce grows. More importantly, however, is the ability to flex down. The problem with the traditional PC procurement model is companies that decrease the size of their workforce due to seasonal changes, layoffs or the like, have to deal with the surplus of PCs (and sunk costs) that result. In a DaaS model, the provider takes back those devices, potentially redeploying them with another client.</p>
<p><q class="left">Desktop-as-a-Service serves up a data-center-based, highly secured virtualized desktop, accessible on a wide range of devices. Device-as-a-Service, conversely, serves up the hardware itself.</q></p>
<p id="vFY5HA">Shifting device procurement from CAPEX to OPEX is a key reason why even a large firm with an in-place IT organization might consider DaaS. Instead of the high cost of purchasing PCs as part of capital expenditures they must depreciate, the as-a-service model lets a company shift the ongoing cost over to the operating expenses side of the ledger. The model also drives increased cost stability. Instead of trying to forecast the need for future hardware refreshes, those refreshes are built into the service plan. From an industry perspective, the upside here is to not only have a more reliable understanding of when customers will need new hardware, but also the potential to reverse the ongoing trend toward ever-longer device life cycles.</p>
<p id="vEtpHC">Finally, reducing IT workloads is attractive for all the reasons you might expect. By offloading day–to-day management and other service tasks to a third-party organization that is incentivized to keep everything running smoothly, employees are likely to have a better overall experience. Plus, overtaxed IT organizations can focus on other business-driving initiatives. If the service provider does its job well, it’s a win-win situation, with more attractive margins for the seller and a simple, single-contract experience for the customer.</p>
<p id="KCrWaP">There is a long list of other potential benefits associated with DaaS, including reduced overall costs, the ability to predict and prevent hardware failures through enhanced analytics, and the capacity to make sure all devices are properly retired.</p>
<p id="qh9PmS">That last one, interestingly, may be a key driver for many companies. During a recent conversation with HP executives on this topic, they noted that asset disposal is a key challenge for many businesses. Too often, old PCs in non-regulated small, medium or large-sized business end up stashed in desk drawers, still filled with company data. A DaaS model not only ensures those devices are collected and wiped of sensitive data, but that the business also recovers the residual hardware value.</p>
<h2 id="xRw90K">Early days, but a clear opportunity</h2>
<p id="4YazLv">DaaS programs are just starting to spin up, and the model is far from a guaranteed success. As more companies enter the space and we dive deeper into the research, we’re likely to find some aspects that need refinement. What’s clear now is that one size certainly doesn’t fit all. For example, the needs of small companies in emerging markets will be dramatically different from those in a mature market. Many companies will likely find the available products and services too limited. Others will prefer to stick with their existing lease programs. Still others will simply always prefer to buy and manage outright. And, of course, the appetite for DaaS providers to take on higher-risk organizations will only scale if they first find success with well-established, stable ones first.</p>
<p id="XhYzZ6">Bottom line: In a world where much of the news around PCs and devices more broadly is often negative, with growth rates going the wrong way, DaaS looks like a promising development for all involved.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr">
<p id="I26cVC"><a href="https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF002764"><em>Tom Mainelli</em></a><em> has covered the technology industry since 1995. He manages </em><a href="https://www.idc.com"><em>IDC</em></a><em>’s Devices and Displays group, which covers a broad range of hardware categories including PCs, tablets, smartphones, thin clients, displays and wearables. Mainelli is also driving new research at IDC around the technologies of augmented and virtual reality. Reach him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/tommainelli"><em>@TomMainelli</em></a>.</p>
<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/7/6/12098434/pc-company-desktop-devices-as-a-service-model-itTom Mainelli2016-06-06T08:00:03-04:002016-06-06T08:00:03-04:00The AR/VR platform wars have begun
<figure>
<img alt="Google's new Daydream platform lets Android smartphones offer virtual-reality capabilities baked into the operating system. Google" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/n4kD6USgaaNSwONCOhVrRfW5rR0=/128x0:896x576/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49779621/Ci1QhusUoAADRa4.jpg-large.0.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>Google's new Daydream platform lets Android smartphones offer virtual-reality capabilities baked into the operating system. Google | Google</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Windows' Holographic and Google's Daydream represent early attempts to establish their platforms as key places for developers and content producers to create new AR/VR apps and media.</p> <p><em>A version of this essay was originally published at </em><a href="https://techpinions.com/the-arvr-platform-wars-have-begun/46112"><em>Tech.pinions</em></a><em>, a website dedicated to informed opinions, insight and perspective on the tech industry.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr">
<p>While the hype around virtual reality and, to a lesser extent, augmented reality, has been steadily ramping up, to date there haven’t been all that many actual device shipments. Two recent major AR/VR platform announcements from Microsoft and Google should help change that.</p>
<p>At Computex, Microsoft announced that it would make available to its hardware partners the <a href="http://Windows%20Holographic%20verge">Windows Holographic platform</a> that powers its own HoloLens product, enabling them to bring to market compatible Windows 10-based hardware.</p>
<p>Google, at its recent I/O Developer Conference, announced that it would offer partners a screenless VR viewer hardware reference design and <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2016/5/18/11683536/google-daydream-virtual-reality-announced-android-n-io-2016">a new platform called Daydream</a> that will enable it to bring to market Android smartphones that offer virtual reality capabilities baked into the operating system.</p>
<p>Both announcements promise to accelerate the number of hardware products headed into the market in the future. Just as important, both announcements represent the companies' <a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/6/4/11859536/jeff-bezos-apple-google-amazon-product-war">early attempts to establish their platforms</a> as key places for developers and content producers to focus their creation of new AR/VR apps and media.</p>
<h2>Google’s Daydream</h2>
<p>Daydream is a platform within a platform, and reflects Google’s knack for driving scale. The company’s first foray into virtual reality was via Google Cardboard, which let users download an app on their Android or iOS phone and then slide the phone into a literal cardboard and plastic viewer to enjoy a rudimentary virtual-reality experience. This was millions of people’s first taste of VR.</p>
<p>Now the company is rolling Daydream into the upcoming Android N release which means, in relatively short order, that the software will begin shipping on millions of new Android phones with apps and content available via Google’s existing Play Store and YouTube.</p>
<p><q class="right">With Daydream, Google is clearly targeting Facebook’s entry-level beachhead in VR.</q></p>
<p>Unfortunately, because Daydream requires Google-certified hardware specs within the host Android phone, most consumers won’t be able to update their existing Android smartphone and get the full Daydream experience. The one exception: The Huawei Nexus 6P. Near-term, expect only high-end Android phones to meet the Daydream hardware specification requirements, but that shouldn’t be true for very long.</p>
<p>While many expected Google to announce Android-related VR plans at I/O, few expected the company to roll out the screenless-viewer reference design. By taking this step, Google has enabled smartphone vendors to quickly create viewers that work with their phones, getting the products to market in much less time. The reference design is also unique in that it includes a handheld controller with its own set of sensors. This should help drive a better, more immersive VR experience than can be achieved with a simple screenless viewer that lacks a controller.</p>
<p>At I/O, Google said eight smartphone vendors were set to launch Daydream-enabled phones later in the year: Alcatel, Asus, Huawei, HTC, LG, Xiaomi, ZTE and Samsung. The latter is notable because Samsung is, to date, the only smartphone vendor currently shipping its own screenless-viewer product, the Gear VR, which works with its high-end Galaxy S6, S7 and Note products.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the Gear VR is co-branded with Facebook’s Oculus, which provides the VR platform and content. With Daydream, Google is clearly targeting Facebook’s entry-level beachhead in VR (the Oculus Rift, the company’s high-end product, runs on a PC). It will be interesting to see if Samsung continues to utilize both platforms going forward, as it has done with Tizen and Android Wear in wearables.</p>
<h2>Microsoft’s Windows Holographic</h2>
<p>While Google’s announcement offers vendors a near plug-and-play solution that should drive new VR hardware into the market as soon as the second half of 2016, Microsoft’s announcement sets the stage for a longer play. Instead of a ready-made reference design and hardware specifications, Microsoft is making available to its partners the underlying Windows 10-based platform that drives its own HoloLens hardware. HoloLens is a high-end, standalone augmented-reality device, but Microsoft is pitching Windows Holographic as a platform for everything from basic VR to advanced AR, running on a wide range of different types of hardware.</p>
<p>The platform itself includes what Microsoft calls its holographic shell, a primary interaction model, its own "perception" APIs and access to Xbox Live services. In other words, instead of building all of this from scratch, Microsoft has created something upon which hardware vendors can build, as long as they’re willing to do it in Microsoft’s world.</p>
<p><q class="left">Microsoft's HoloLens is — and will continue to be for some time — a high-end product geared toward commercial users.</q></p>
<p>That said, the company isn’t offering up a reference design. Just as it did with Surface, where it sought to drive innovation by creating its own competitive product, Microsoft sees HoloLens as a product from which other hardware vendors can draw inspiration. Microsoft listed off a who’s who of key hardware players as partners, including Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, HTC, Acer, ASUS, CyberPowerPC, Dell, Falcon Northwest, HP, iBuyPower, Lenovo and MSI.</p>
<p>The Microsoft announcement is interesting because it’s been clear from the start HoloLens is — and will continue to be for some time — a high-end product geared toward commercial users. In order to drive some level of scale to attract developers, the company was always going to have to get additional hardware into the mix. This plan gives hardware vendors a way to bring new products to market by piggybacking on the work Microsoft has already done. It’s far different from what Google is making available with Daydream, and it will take some time to see if hardware vendors take Microsoft up on its offer.</p>
<p>With these announcements, we now have the early stages of an AR/VR platform story from Google and Microsoft. The lingering question: What will Apple do in the space and will the company give its first glimpse of its plans at the upcoming WWDC?</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr">
<p><a href="https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF002764"><em>Tom Mainelli</em></a><em> has covered the technology industry since 1995. He manages IDC’s Devices and Displays group, which covers a broad range of hardware categories including PCs, tablets, smartphones, thin clients, displays and wearables. Mainelli is also driving new research at IDC around the technologies of augmented and virtual reality. Reach him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/tommainelli"><em>@TomMainelli</em></a>.</p>
<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/6/6/11852820/artificial-reality-virtual-ar-vr-platform-wars-microsoft-googleTom Mainelli2016-05-24T11:00:03-04:002016-05-24T11:00:03-04:00Let's make PCs first-class citizens of the connected world
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Gsmm1gg3fJwNloa-1GYXo2bFkds=/0x0:635x476/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49673591/Dell_20XPS_2013.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Dell’s XPS-13 is one of the finest Windows notebooks on the market, yet there’s no cellular option. | Dell</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It's high time that our most powerful, most productive and most expensive mobile computing device got its own full-time cellular connection.</p> <p><em>A version of this essay was originally published at </em><a href="https://techpinions.com/lets-make-pcs-first-class-citizens-of-the-connected-world/45734"><em>Tech.pinions</em></a><em>, a website dedicated to informed opinions, insight and perspective on the tech industry.</em></p>
<p> </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr">
<p> </p>
<p>The PC industry is in the doldrums. Shipments continue to decline, and consumers and business buyers are holding on to their existing hardware for increasingly long periods of time. Fast new processors haven’t caused them to upgrade. Nor have thinner, touch-enabled form factors. And new operating systems no longer move the needle. So what’s it going to take?</p>
<p>As a frequent business traveler, I can tell you this: The single most important feature that I want in my next notebook is one that I simply cannot get on even the best products in the world: A cellular radio. It’s 2016, and it's high time that my most powerful, most productive and most expensive mobile computing device got its own full-time cellular connection.</p>
<h2>Tether This!</h2>
<p>Let’s get this out of the way up front: Yes, I know I can use a mobile hotspot. Yes, I know I can tether my notebook to my phone. Yes, I know Wi-Fi is widely available. And yes, I know that I’m going to have to pay my mobile carrier for yet another connection.</p>
<p>I have a mobile hotspot. It’s pretty great, except the roughly 50 percent of the time it is dead because I left it turned on the last time I used it. Or, worse, it’s not in my bag because I left it charging on my desk. In a pinch, I often tether to my phone. And it works okay most of the time. But invariably, when I’m in a hurry, I find myself turning the phone hotspot on and off, or turning my notebook’s Wi-Fi on and off, desperately trying to get my notebook to talk to the phone that is sitting three inches to its right. Best case, I eventually connect and then proceed to run down my phone battery.</p>
<p><q class="right">Today you can find cellular-enabled tablets for less than $200. So why can’t I get that feature in my high-end notebook?</q></p>
<p><br>Connecting to Wi-Fi is even more hit or miss. Public hotspots are increasingly plentiful, but are consistently inconsistent in terms of stability and speed. More frustrating still is the semi-private Wi-Fi in every corporate conference room I’ve ever set foot. I shudder to think about how much time and money we as a population waste while people in conference rooms "try to get connected."</p>
<p>That’s why I’d gladly pay my carrier an extra $10 to $20 per month to access my existing shared data plan. And I’d also happily pay the $50 to $100 it would cost the vendor for the radio. It would pay for itself in a matter of months.</p>
<p>Several years ago, I got my first cellular-connected tablet. It has clearly spoiled me. I can’t imagine ever having a non-cellular tablet again. No matter where I go, I’m always connected. And I’m not alone: In 2015, about 36 percent of tablets worldwide shipped with cellular connectivity. About one-third of Apple’s iPads ship with cellular connectivity, and it charges an extra $130 for the feature! Today you can find cellular-enabled tablets for less than $200. So why can’t I get that feature in my high-end notebook?</p>
<h2>Waiting for ... what?</h2>
<p>I’ve made this argument to a wide range of companies within the PC ecosystem, from silicon makers to hardware vendors, and few disagree with my sentiment. But nobody wants to go first in a big, bold way. Some of the PC vendors offer a few commercial-focused models with a cellular modem as an option, but no one has rolled it out as an add-on to their flagship products. I’m not suggesting that it should show up in every sub-$300 PC that ships into the market. But let’s make it an option on vendor’s top-of-the-line products.</p>
<p><q class="left">I’m not suggesting that a cellular option should show up in every sub-$300 PC that ships into the market. But let’s make it an option on vendor’s top-of-the-line products.</q></p>
<p><br>Apple’s MacBook is its thinnest, most mobile-focused notebook to date. But there’s no cellular option. Dell’s XPS-13 is one of the finest Windows notebooks on the market, yet there’s no cellular option. Microsoft’s Surface Book and Surface Pro 4 detachable products are clearly targeting mobile professionals willing to pay top dollar for their hardware, and yet there’s no cellular option. Same for Lenovo’s Yoga 900. And HP’s Spectre. And the list goes on and on.</p>
<p>I guarantee that once companies realize the productivity benefits of a giving their most mobile employees connected notebooks, they’ll start buying more of them. And that’s before you consider the potential security benefits of never having to connect to a strange Wi-Fi access point. Or the notable cost savings of that employee never having to pay for connectivity in a hotel again.</p>
<p>I get it. Adding cellular brings a wide range of technical and regulatory hassles. It costs money to design in the radio and then pay for the part and, so far, the silicon guys haven’t made integrating it a priority. And it means working with a wide range of carriers all over the world.</p>
<p>But it is time that the industry bites the bullet and moves this forward. Everyone is trying to figure out what buyers want, but many users just don’t know yet that this is what they want. Give them the option to find out. Let’s get the ball rolling on this now, so that when 5G arrives, every PC will ship with that next-generation connectivity as a standard feature.</p>
<p> </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr">
<p> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF002764"><em>Tom Mainelli</em></a><em> has covered the technology industry since 1995. He manages IDC’s Devices and Displays group, which covers a broad range of hardware categories including PCs, tablets, smartphones, thin clients, displays and wearables. Mainelli is also driving new research at IDC around the technologies of augmented and virtual reality. Reach him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/tommainelli"><em>@TomMainelli</em></a>.</p>
<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/5/24/11753148/pc-wifi-cellular-connection-option-notebookTom Mainelli2016-05-08T16:39:12-04:002016-05-08T16:39:12-04:00The challenge and opportunity of augmented reality
<figure>
<img alt="Microsoft Holds Its Annual Build Conference" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eYNd_n2QAlUl0DvcxIie2qMe0n8=/0x0:2667x2000/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49546745/518240880.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Testing augmented reality headset at Microsoft's annual build conference. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Interest in this topic is off the charts, and tech investors are eager to learn everything they can about this burgeoning market.</p> <p><em>A version of this essay was originally published at </em><a href="https://techpinions.com/the-augmented-reality-enterprise-opportunity/43329"><em>Tech.pinions</em></a><em>, a website dedicated to informed opinions, insight and perspective on the tech industry.</em></p>
<p>______________________________________________________________________________________________</p>
<p>Over the last three weeks, I’ve spent an enormous amount of time talking face to face with technology investors in San Francisco, Silicon Valley, New York and London. These conversations tend to be wide-ranging, covering numerous topics in a typical hour-long session. But there was one subject that came up in every single one of my 20+ meetings: Augmented reality (AR).</p>
<p>Interest in this topic is off the charts, and tech investors are eager to learn everything they can about this burgeoning market. I came away from these meetings more convinced than ever of my two fundamental theories around augmented reality. First: It won’t happen fast, and it won’t be easy, but AR is going to have a profound impact on how we all interact with technology. Second: The enormous challenges of bringing AR to market — first to IT buyers and later to consumers — will drive a new wave of technical innovation that will generate massive amounts of new value within the tech industry.</p>
<h2>New Challenges, New Opportunities</h2>
<p>Part of the reason I’m so bullish on AR is that I’ve had the privilege of testing some of the early devices, and each demonstration has an undeniable <em>wow</em> factor. More important however, is that, once the rush of trying this new technology subsides, you can’t shake the undeniable feeling that it isn’t just for show. AR will drive massive real-world opportunities right out of the gate. I’ve talked about the key verticals where AR will hit first <a href="https://techpinions.com/the-augmented-reality-enterprise-opportunity/43329">in a previous column</a>, but it feels increasingly inevitable that it will eventually impact just about everything and everyone.</p>
<p>But these massive opportunities won’t come easy. Nearly every aspect of a future AR experience is going to require big leaps in new hardware components, new types of interaction models, next-level applications, and connected services we’ve yet to even conceive.</p>
<p><q class="right">Interest in this topic is off the charts, and tech investors are eager to learn everything they can about this burgeoning market.</q></p>
<p>Let’s start with the hardware. Microsoft’s groundbreaking <a href="https://www.microsoft.com/microsoft-hololens/en-us">HoloLens</a> product, now shipping in developer kit form for $3,000, has a multitude of sensors, cameras, speakers and three primary processors: A CPU, a GPU and an HPU. That’s right, Microsoft designed its very own 32-bit, X86-based Holographic Processing Unit because the company decided that the traditional CPU/GPU arrangement didn’t provide enough of the right type of processing to handle the massive amounts of data input and visual output inside the HoloLens.</p>
<p>And Microsoft isn’t the only company investing in new silicon designs to drive AR. Dozens of companies — some old and many new — are looking at this space, trying to figure out how to build new types of chips to drive innovative experiences.</p>
<p>Another area of interest is the cameras, sensors, and microphones inside an AR device that will help capture where a person is, the people and objects that surround them and, most importantly, what they are doing with their hands, their eyes and their voice.</p>
<p>An essential element of AR will be the successful capture of human input on a device without a keyboard, a mouse or even a touchable screen. A wide swath of companies, from Microsoft to Meta, Leap Motion to Ultrahaptics, are working hard to tackle the complexities of using cameras and software to capture minute movements of the hands and fingers. Imagine manipulating data or digital objects with your empty hands (I’ve tested it, and it’s brilliant). Still others are trying to move beyond the somewhat rudimentary skills of today’s digital personal assistants to create voice-based interactions that work during mission-critical, hands-free tasks.</p>
<p>Let’s not forget the screens. One of the fundamental differences between virtual reality and augmented reality is that VR can utilize the high-resolution screens the industry has already created for smartphones. That’s because, with VR, you look at the screen, but with AR, you need to look <em>through</em> the screen, so you can still see your real-world surroundings.</p>
<p><q class="left">The challenges of manufacturing high-resolution screens will be a key limiting factor to a fast ramp for AR.</q></p>
<p> </p>
<p>The challenges of manufacturing these screens will be a key limiting factor to a fast ramp for AR. It’s one of the only areas where Microsoft’s universally lauded HoloLens often gets dinged, as the company chose a relatively small viewing area as it wrestled with cost, complexity and the battery power needed to drive the screens. Meta’s new Meta 2 product offers a notably larger viewing area, but must be tethered to a PC. And AR’s secretive darling Magic Leap, with $1.4 billion in funding, suggests that its technology will be different from these types of screens altogether.</p>
<p>Of course, none of this amazing hardware is of much use without software to run it. One of the key elements of good AR software will be an application’s ability to collect and process potentially dozens of different inputs at a time, and changing the experience based on new information. That software will need to be tied to back-end services, through high-speed connections, effectively turning future AR devices into the world’s most capable Internet of Things endpoints.</p>
<h2>Early Days, Big Bets</h2>
<p>All of the above excites me because, in the various challenges that lay before AR, I see huge opportunities for the tech industry to do what it has always done best: Solve difficult problems. Cranking the wheel on the next iteration of a smartphone, tablet, or notebooks is necessary, but doesn’t exactly light the fires of our imagination. I believe the high level of excitement building around AR comes from the fact that, once you experience it, you realize this technology feels truly important.</p>
<p>As a result, we’ll see big, well-known companies begin to make increasingly large bets here. And we will see a long and growing list of small companies that look to make their mark in one or two specific areas, hoping to be a part of the larger AR story down the road.</p>
<p>It is early days, and picking company or even technology winners now is a fools’ game. But I will predict this: It’s going be an interesting, world-changing ride, and more than a few companies will rise (and fall) as the tech industry works to make this new reality happen.</p>
<p>______________________________________________________________________________________________</p>
<p><a href="https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=PRF002764"><em>Tom Mainelli</em></a><em> has covered the technology industry since 1995. He manages </em><a href="https://www.idc.com"><em>IDC’s</em></a><em> Devices and Displays group, which covers a broad range of hardware categories including PCs, tablets, smartphones, thin clients, displays and wearables. Mainelli is also driving new research at IDC around the technologies of augmented and virtual reality. Reach him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/tommainelli"><em>@TomMainelli</em></a><em>.</em></p>
<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
https://www.vox.com/2016/5/8/11635348/the-challenge-and-opportunity-of-augmented-realityTom Mainelli