Minnesota results for every midterm race
Perhaps the fiercest battleground in the fight for the House of Representatives will be Minnesota.
Democrats are actually favored to flip two Republican-held seats into their column, according to election forecasters, with GOP Reps. Erik Paulsen (in the Third District) and Jason Lewis (in the Second) looking especially vulnerable. But Republicans have a few of their own rarer chances to win seats from Democrats in the First and Eighth Districts, which feature open seats currently held by Democrats in parts of the state more favorable to Trump.
Whether Minnesota ends up a wash between the two parties or whether Democrats net two House seats in the Land of 10,000 Lakes could be decisive in determining who controls the House in 2019.
Republicans also have a shot, if a long one, of winning the governor’s mansion. Democratic incumbent Mark Dayton is retiring, with Democratic Rep. Tim Walz and a former Republican state legislator, Jeff Johnson, running to succeed him. Democrats look like they’ll win both of the Senate seats on the ballot, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar cruising to an easy reelection and Sen. Tina Smith seeking the official stamp of approval from Minnesota voters after she was appointed to replace Al Franken last year.
The attorney general race will also be closely watched, with outgoing Rep. Keith Ellison sticking on the ballot despite domestic abuse allegations from a former romantic partner.
In the state legislature, Democrats could take control of the Senate by flipping just one GOP-held seat. The House is a heavier lift, as even progressive organizers will recognize, but it can’t be ruled out if the blue wave is big enough in 2018.
President Donald Trump is probably the least popular here among Midwestern states, and Morning Consult says his disapproval rating is above 50 percent.