California, along with 13 other states and one territory, will hold its primary this Tuesday, March 3 — Super Tuesday.
It’s a first for the state, which didn’t vote until June during the 2016 primary. Now that California has joined the fun, Super Tuesday is more super than ever: More than a third of all delegates to the Democratic National Convention in July will be allotted, and California, with its 415-delegate haul, is the centerpiece of that contest.
For all that, though, it’ll probably be a while before we know the full results from the state. While polls close at 11 pm Eastern / 8 pm local, California’s size, vote-by-mail system, and a few other quirks mean that the state takes a while to tally all the votes.
In 2016, it took a month, though it was clear that eventual Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had won long before that. We can only hope it won’t take quite as long in 2020, but it’s not going to be quick no matter what happens.
Polls, however, provide some guidance: The FiveThirtyEight California polling average shows Sen. Bernie Sanders firmly in the driver’s seat, with a lead of almost 14 points over former Vice President Joe Biden.
Recent shake-ups in the field could give Biden a boost, though. The moderate lane thinned considerably between the South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday, with both former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar dropping out and endorsing the former veep.
Prior to their exits, the pair were polling at a combined 13 percent in California, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. If Biden manages to win even a portion of that support, he could have a better night than expected.
Early voting in California, however, means that there’s a limit to how much things can move around — some portion of votes have already been cast for candidates no longer in the race.
For Sen. Elizabeth Warren and billionaire Mike Bloomberg — who are running at about 15 and 13 percent in the California polling average, respectively — the central question is whether they will break the 15 percent threshold required to claim delegates in the state.
Follow along below for Vox’s coverage of the 2020 California primary, including live results, breaking news updates, analysis, and more.