Trump’s Cabinet, ranked by how likely they are to get fired

President Donald Trump’s decision to replace Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Shulkin marks the fourth time a high-profile official has departed the executive branch in the past four weeks.

Gary Cohn gave up after Trump went ahead with steel and aluminum tariffs. Then Rex Tillerson got axed. Last week, Trump replaced National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster. Shulkin was just the latest top official to exit a White House that perpetually seems to teeter on the verge of a personnel purge. The threat of an ouster looms over most high-profile employees — if they haven’t been dismissed, or quit, already.

This is, after all, an administration run by a man made famous by the tagline “you’re fired.”

There’s no indication Shulkin will be the last. Trump, after more than a year in office, has reportedly grown more confident in his presidential abilities. That’s led Trump, who prizes loyalty, to start weeding out the Cabinet members who try to tamp down his instincts.

“I am really at a point where we are getting close to having the Cabinet and other things that I want,” Trump said after Tillerson’s firing. Trump’s friend and Newsmax CEO Chris Ruddy said Sunday on ABC’s This Week that Trump is “expecting to make one or two major changes to his government very soon.”

It’s probably a foolish gamble to predict what the mercurial president will do next. But here’s a guide to which departure is rumored to be imminent — and who seems to be safe, at least for now.

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The most endangered

Ben Carson, secretary of housing and urban development

Why he might be next: Earlier in March, Trump was rumored to be firing Carson at the same time as Shulkin and McMaster. That didn’t happen, but Shulkin and McMaster are now out, leaving Carson standing alone on the “least likely to succeed” list.

The cause of Carson’s woes is a $31,000 mahogany dining set. Carson had come under fire for spending a lot of money on furniture for one of his executive rooms at HUD. He originally denied he had anything to do with the purchase. But a watchdog group sued to release emails, which revealed that Carson and his wife, Candy Carson, had a hand in selecting the overpriced furniture. A HUD whistleblower had also come forward saying Candy Carson had pressured her to find a workaround to the $5,000 limit for the secretary’s furnishings.

The lavish purchase came as HUD faced crippling budget cuts to the tune of $6 billion. Trump officials also see Carson as an ineffective secretary, according to a report in Politico, which, considering he had no housing policy or government experience before taking the job, adds up.

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The survivors: rumored to be on the brink for months, yet still here

Jeff Sessions, attorney general

Why he’s perpetually on the rumors list: Recusing yourself is hard to do. But Sessions did step away from the Russia investigation, leaving his deputy, Rod Rosenstein, in charge. Rosenstein appointed and now oversees the special counsel investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election and the possible involvement of the Trump campaign.

And almost since the beginning of Mueller’s investigation, it’s seemed like Sessions is in trouble. Trump has lambasted his “beleaguered” attorney general, accusing him of insufficient loyalty and publicly humiliating him in an apparent attempt to force him out. Firing Sessions would allow Trump to appoint a new attorney general — one who might not have to recuse himself from the Russia investigation.

But it would also stoke fears that Trump would fire Mueller to a fever pitch, and the confirmation battle for any Sessions replacement would likely be grueling.

John Kelly, chief of staff

Why he might be next: Chiefs of staff, who needs ’em? Trump has reportedly been frustrated with Kelly for some time now, but speculation of his firing ramped up following the Rob Porter scandal and questions about security clearance in the White House.

Kelly has survived so far, but Trump bristles under the order Kelly has imposed on his White House. According to his former campaign chief Corey Lewandowski, Trump thinks he might be fine without a chief of staff — just himself in charge. “But the difference with this president is he is the decision-maker and he loves to have all of the information brought to him,” Lewandowski said on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday. “I see him as the hub with a number of spokes coming out.”

Rod Rosenstein, deputy attorney general

Why he might be next: Rosenstein isn’t in the Cabinet. But he’s very important in one way: He oversees the Mueller investigation, and he appointed the special counsel in the wake of FBI Director James Comey’s firing.

Trump has repeatedly called the Russia investigation a “hoax,” and his attacks have intensified against Mueller in recent weeks. Right-wing Trump supporters have tried to cast Rosenstein as a career, “deep state” bureaucrat out to take down the president, even though Trump appointed (and the Senate confirmed) him to his current role.

A Rosenstein ouster could change the course of the Mueller investigation, and could amount to an attempt to shut it down. Especially if Sessions leaves with Rosenstein, America might have a full-blown constitutional crisis on its hands.

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Hanging on despite bad press

Betsy DeVos, secretary of education

The (possible) firing offenses: Trump had another 60 Minutes interview to distract him this week, but DeVos did herself no favors with her own sit-down earlier this month. She struggled to answer basic questions about public schools in her home state of Michigan and about sexual assault on college campuses. That same week, in separate media appearances, she stumbled over questions about Trump’s school safety plan — even though she’s tasked with heading up the committee. She is already one of Trump’s most divisive Cabinet members, and the 60 Minutes interview reinvigorated criticism that she’s ill-equipped for her job.

CNN reported that the White House was “alarmed” by DeVos’s performance, but even amid persistent rumors of a Cabinet shake-up, her name wasn’t nearly as prominent as Shulkin’s, Carson’s, or McMaster’s.

Ryan Zinke, secretary of the interior

The (possible) firing offenses: Zinke’s spending habits have also drawn scrutiny, including $139,000 to replace six historical doors in his office. (He now claims he’s cut the bill in half, to $75,000.) His taxpayer-funded travel has also raised eyebrows, including a more than $12,000 chartered flight from his home in Montana to Las Vegas, where he delivered a motivational speech to the Las Vegas Golden Knights, which doesn’t exactly sound like government business. He also reportedly spent more than $53,000 on three helicopter trips last summer, including a $6,250 trip from Yorktown, Pennsylvania, to Washington, DC, which got him back in time to go horseback riding with Vice President Mike Pence.

Trump was also reportedly angry at Zinke in January over a decision to exempt the coast of Florida from offshore oil and gas leases.

Scott Pruitt, Environmental Protection Agency administrator

The (possible) firing offenses: Pruitt has also proven himself to be a bit freewheeling with taxpayers’ money. He installed a $43,000 soundproof phone booth in his office, which was only supposed to cost $25,000. Pruitt has also splurged on fancy security measures, including $2,500 for biometric locks and $3,000 for a listening device security sweep.

“Unprecedented” security concerns are also why Pruitt has been forced to take pricey charter and first-class flights, or so his office claims. According to the Washington Post, Pruitt spent more than $90,000 of taxpayer money to take chartered and first-class flights in early June, including a nearly $8,000 round-trip flight to Rome and a $1,600 shuttle flight from New York to DC. He has since deigned to fly coach.

Pruitt has also been lobbying hard for a swankier gig — attorney general, should Trump fire Sessions. But administration officials reportedly wanted Pruitt to back off. Last week, according to the Washington Post, Kelly called Pruitt to say Trump was happy with his work at the EPA.

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Publicly praised by Trump

The press conference partners: Mattis, Ross, Nielsen

Trump brought three Cabinet members (plus Vice President Mike Pence) to his signing ceremony for the omnibus spending bill. Trump might be having second thoughts about the bill itself, but these officials have been largely absent from stories of future Cabinet shuffles: Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen.

Mattis reportedly had a “suicide pact” with McMaster to quit if Trump were to fire either of them — but he’s still here. (He’s also tied to a massive corporate fraud scandal — but no one wants to bring it up because Mattis might be the last “adult in the room” left.) Nielsen has backed Trump on the border wall. Ross is helping lead the push for tariffs (and defended them with a soup can).

The favored five: Chao, Acosta, Perdue, Perry (and Ross again)

Amid the turmoil of the Trump administration in March, Trump made a point to tweet on March 14 that five “incredible” Cabinet secretaries would be testifying on Capitol Hill:

Besides Ross, the five included Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue and Secretary of Labor Alexander Acosta, who have flown under the radar since they were confirmed; and Energy Secretary Rick Perry, who was reportedly considered to replace Shulkin at the VA.

The fifth was Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao, who has kept a low profile and tried to sell Trump’s infrastructure proposal and agenda. (She’s used pricey government planes a few times when flying commercial would throw off her schedule — but that’s pretty tame compared to the other travel scandals.)

Perpetually getting asked to do more: Mick Mulvaney

Mulvaney, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, is also running the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and his name has been floated as a possible chief of staff should Kelly leave, so Trump seems to like having him around.

Apparently in Trump’s good graces — at least for now

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has been notably absent from reports of Cabinet drama, and, as the Washington Post put it, switches easily “between diplomat and loyal soldier.” Director of the White House National Trade Council Peter Navarro has been defending the tariffs on television. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats has kept a low profile. And Linda McMahon, who created spectacle for a living in the wrestling business, has stayed out of the limelight while apparently staying on Trump’s good side at the Small Business Administration.

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Correction: This post has updated the title of Peter Navarro.