Arizona Republican’s campaign postmortem contains bad news for Trump

An exit memo put together by strategists for Rep. Martha McSally’s (R-AZ) failed US Senate campaign draws disturbing conclusions for President Donald Trump and his hopes of a second term.

The memo, which was published by the Washington Post, explains McSally’s narrow loss to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in part by citing internal polling indicating that Trump is not popular among Republicans — particularly women — in a state that will be crucial to his 2020 hopes.

“A significant segment of the AZ GOP was hostile to the President,” it says. “In internal polling during the primary, President Trump never broke 80% favorability among Republican voters. A certain segment of AZ Republicans was outright hostile to President Trump, and was against the Kavanaugh appointment. This segment of moderate Republicans, especially woman [sic], proved very difficult to bring home to a Republican candidate that supported President Trump and the confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh.”

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Trump had strongly endorsed McSally, a retired Air Force colonel, even traveling to Arizona to stump for her.

Trump won Arizona in 2016 with 48.1 percent of the vote, compared to Hillary Clinton’s 44.6 percent. McSally’s percentage of the vote was very close to Trump’s at 48 percent, but Sinema won with 49.7 percent.

Prior to Sinema’s win, a Democrat Senate candidate hadn’t won in Arizona since 1988. Republicans have carried the state in presidential elections in every cycle since 1952, except for Bill Clinton’s victory in 1996.

Sinema’s margin of victory ending up mirroring Trump’s approval in recent polling in Arizona. According to an Arizona Republic poll conducted in October, Trump’s approval/disapproval split was 48.2/47.6 percent.

McSally has been discussed as a possible replacement for Sen. Jon Kyl, who is filling the late John McCain’s seat on an interim basis. But the Washington Post reported this week that prominent Republicans “have reservations about appointing McSally,” citing her loss to Sinema.

After a string of midterm campaign stops where the message centered on fearmongering about immigrants, Trump suffered a stinging defeat when Republicans lost control of the House. Things haven’t improved for him in the weeks since. With the stock market sliding and Trump country layoffs in the news, a Gallup Poll released Monday found that a record-tying 60 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance.

Trump’s 2020 campaign in Arizona is off to an inauspicious start. On Tuesday, the Arizona Republic reported that the Trump campaign owes Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport and Mesa taxpayers $13,000 for temporary lighting that was unexpectedly needed during the president’s October rally for McSally.

An airport spokesperson told the paper that the airport hasn’t invoiced the campaign but “certainly wouldn’t turn down any reimbursement.”

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