North Korea just tested its most powerful nuclear weapon to date, posing its biggest challenge yet to President Donald Trump and threatening to escalate tensions with Washington that are already reaching potentially dangerous levels.
At noon local time on September 3, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake registered at North Korea’s Punggye-ri testing site, according to the US Geological Survey. That indicated Pyongyang detonated a hydrogen bomb with a 100-kiloton yield, according to experts, which would make the device around seven times stronger than the bomb America dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. This was the country’s sixth nuclear test and its first during the Trump administration.
Hours earlier, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), North Korea’s state-run media organization, released pictures of the country’s leader Kim Jong Un looking at a hydrogen bomb load onto an intercontinental ballistic missile that could theoretically hit most major US cities.
After the test, KCNA noted Pyongyang conducted the test “to examine and confirm the accuracy and credibility” of the weapon.
“North Korea wants the ability to target the United States,” Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on North Korea’s missile program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, told me. “A thermonuclear weapon does more damage,” he continued, using another name for a hydrogen bomb. And this bomb can do quite a bit of damage.
Vipin Narang, a nuclear expert at MIT, told the Washington Post that even with “relatively inaccurate intercontinental ballistic missile technology, [North Korea] can destroy the better part of a city with this yield.”
Saturday morning, Trump tweeted his displeasure with the development. “North Korea has conducted a major Nuclear Test. Their words and actions continue to be very hostile and dangerous to the United States,” he wrote. His subsequent tweets claimed China has had “little success” in stopping North Korea’s nuclear program and that South Korea’s “talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work.”
And Saturday afternoon, Secretary of Defense James Mattis offered a stark warning to North Korea after a small meeting of national security leaders with the president. “Any threat to the United States or its territories, including Guam, or our allies, will be met with a massive military response — a response both effective and overwhelming,” he said.
Regional allies South Korea and Japan also reacted strongly. After the test, South Korean President Moon Jae-in convened a meeting of his national security team. His national security adviser, Chung Eui-yong, told reporters that Seoul wants the “most powerful sanctions” placed on North Korea at the United Nations.
At times like these, South Korea looks to the US for economic and security assurances. But just yesterday news leaked that Trump wants to pull out of a long-standing free-trade deal with Seoul. Between that news and the nuclear test, the Moon administration may feel the US won’t support it as the North Korea threat grows.
Japan sent out a statement of disapproval. "It is absolutely unacceptable if North Korea did force another nuclear test, and we must protest strongly," Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said.
On August 29, North Korea launched a missile into Japanese airspace that eventually landed about 733 miles east of the country. "We have to say that this morning's launch by the North is the most serious and grave threat ever to us,” Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said afterward.
It’s unclear if the Japanese government finds North Korea’s latest nuclear test more threatening than that missile launch.
Trump could respond with a military strike — but that’s still unlikely
All eyes will be on how Trump responds to this provocation. During an interview with CBS’s John Dickerson on April 30, Trump didn’t rule out a military strike on North Korea if it tested a nuclear weapon.
TRUMP: I would not be happy. If he does a nuclear test, I will not be happy. And I can tell you also, I don't believe that the president of China, who is a very respected man, will be happy either.
DICKERSON: Not happy mean military action?
TRUMP: I don't know. I mean, we'll see.
Then on August 8, Trump threatened to unleash “fire and fury” on Pyongyang if it continued to threaten the United States. In response, Pyongyang said it would launch missiles near the US territory of Guam. North Korea eventually stood down and said it would continue to watch US actions before deciding on future moves.
It’s still unlikely Trump will choose war with North Korea. The Trump administration still prefers a diplomatic approach toward Pyongyang in hopes that it would give up its nuclear weapons. But it’s unclear what incentive North Korea has to stop its nuclear program, especially now that it tested a powerful hydrogen bomb.
That’s going to make it much harder for Trump to strike a deal with the North.
Here is what we know of #NorthKorea 6th #nucleartest - revised @USGS (M6.3) & new @ctbto_alerts (M5.8) analyses https://t.co/dc3BJafbko pic.twitter.com/FS2Cw8Ugsd
— CSIS Korea Chair (@CSISKoreaChair) September 3, 2017