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I have never come across a mind quite like Tyler Cowen’s. The George Mason University economist, and Marginal Revolution blogger, has an interesting opinion on, well, everything.
So for my podcast conversation with him — which you can listen to on iTunes, SoundCloud, or wherever you get your podcasts — I had a simple plan: ask Cowen for his thoughts on as many topics as possible. And I think it worked out pretty well. We discuss everything from New Jersey to high school sports to finding love to smoked trout to nootropics to Thomas Schelling to Ayn Rand to social media to speed reading strategies to happy relationships to Donald Trump to the disadvantages of growing up in Manhattan. And believe me when I say that is a small sampling of what we covered.
We also talk about Tyler’s new book, The Complacent Class, which argues, in true Cowenian fashion, that everything we think we know about the present is wrong, and that far from being an age of rapid change and constant risk, we have become a cautious, even stagnant, society.
At the end of our discussion, I did a lightning round with Cowen, where I asked him for his snap reactions on everything from a universal basic income to superhero films to geoengineering to a cashless society. A transcript of that section, edited for length and clarity, follows here. For the full conversation, subscribe to my podcast!
Ezra Klein
So I’m going to move now to asking you about a couple of ideas that are out there right now that I would like your views on. Let’s start with the idea, pushed by Elon Musk and others, that we live in a computer simulation.
Tyler Cowen
I understand the Bayesian logic that it ought to be true, but I don’t think it is. Here’s the way I would put it: In most plausible theories of the universe, the universe is a kind of computation. So to the extent it’s true, it’s probably trivial. Everything’s computation.
Ezra Klein
Universal basic income.
Tyler Cowen
I used to favor it; now I’m pretty skeptical. The more you think that politics is about symbolic values, the more I feel we need to put up a big sign on this country that says, “We’re for immigrants who really want to work and create.”
I’ve become a fan of doing a lot of your welfare through jobs. I get that it’s economically inefficient, and I get that it doesn’t cover everyone, but I feel the ultimate long-run returns to that are pretty high and I’ve become a fan of it.
Ezra Klein
You mean you’ve become a fan of something more like a basic jobs guarantee or giant public works programs?
Tyler Cowen
Well, those would depend on the cyclical state of the economy, but the earned income tax credit, where you pay people extra for working. I’ve moved closer to the position of wanting coverage to not be so universal, and to attract the better mix of immigrants, and have a really strong pro-work ethic in society, understanding people will go uncovered. I don’t want that for New Zealand, but if your country is the global generator of innovation and public goods, I think you should take that very seriously.
Ezra Klein
Then, related to that: the idea that artificial intelligence and automation will lead to, let’s say, a doubling of unemployment in 15 years.
Tyler Cowen
That’s extremely unlikely. I think it will lower labor force participation for working-age males, as it has already, and that’s a big problem. But the extreme scenarios are far overblown.
Ezra Klein
But if you believe that we’re already seeing working-age males displaced by automation, then doesn’t that cut against having a social support system even more tied to work?
Tyler Cowen
My fear is that if you take those working-age males and allow them to continue not to work, you’ll ultimately make the problem worse. There’s some shift in norms needed: some mix of some of those males learning to do subservient service sector jobs; some shift of those males learning to migrate more, sometimes even to other countries; and some shift of becoming more stoic and more content. I think we’re seeing, partly from the Trump campaign, people want jobs. Yes, they want support, but what makes them happy is jobs.
Ezra Klein
Are there ways the government could provide jobs? And I mean just jobs. I don’t mean the way they could help boost the economy. I think everybody believes they should do that. But to the extent that policymakers believe they have maxed out on what they can do to help the economy, to what degree should the government just be providing make-work?
Tyler Cowen
I consider that option more seriously. I don’t know the answer. I do, of course, think we should build more infrastructure. So you build the smart grid — how many of the problem people will that put to work? I don’t know, but I seriously worry the answer is not enough.
If there were a Straussian way to have make-work jobs but cloaked as something else, and if that were sustainable, I would consider it. I’m not sure that’s possible. But I think we need to experiment in that space more.
Ezra Klein
Trump’s vision of coercive capitalism, where he goes and says, “You, you’re a good company, you kept jobs here; you, you’re a bad company, you sent jobs away.”
Tyler Cowen
Well, it’s terrible, but if that’s the worst thing we get from him, I’ll be extremely relieved.
Ezra Klein
Why is it terrible?
Tyler Cowen
It politicizes all decisions. It means business leaders have an incentive to support him, and not oppose him, which might allow him to do other terrible things. In effect, it takes away free speech within the business community. And it’s arbitrary and unfair.
Ezra Klein
The war on drugs.
Tyler Cowen
The war on drugs is a terrible thing. Other than selling drugs to children, I don’t think people should ever go to jail for things they do to their own bodies. I would decriminalize all the drugs I know about. I’m not sure you can completely legalize everything, but it shouldn’t be a reason to send people to jail. Again, children excluded — that’s a somewhat separate issue.
Ezra Klein
NATO.
Tyler Cowen
I love NATO; I hope we can keep it. Here’s the positive scenario: Trump has said NATO is dead, and now the whole world is scurrying to defend and strengthen NATO. And if Trump does a flip on NATO, which I don’t by any means rule out, this could actually be the thing that strengthens NATO. That’s my hope; it’s not my prediction. More likely than not, Trump is just increasing noise and uncertainty, and a lot of different alliances will fall away just because the US has become so unpredictable.
Ezra Klein
You say you love NATO. What do you think the role of NATO is in this era?
Tyler Cowen
It’s very simple: to stop Russian expansion in the East. Russia is in some regards a country with evil leadership. I think the standard Mitt Romney line that there are evil leaders and cultures and you need to watch out for them and take vigorous action is correct. Russia qualifies there, but you need cooperation. We don’t have that right now.
Ezra Klein
Do you think we have culturally begun to underweight the dangers posed by other states?
Tyler Cowen
Oh, absolutely. Again, if you’re looking for a positive scenario from the Trump presidency, it may be a big wake-up call where we cease being so complacent. But the notion that China is a major expansionist power — though not aggressive toward America at all — that Russia is potentially a major expansionist power in Eurasia, those are the two most important facts about the world right now, and they’re not really on the minds of the American people.
Ezra Klein
Fake news.
Tyler Cowen
We’ve had fake news for a long time. The satanic kidnappings, or “we’re not really bombing Laos and Cambodia.” Fake news is terrible, but I think recently it’s gotten too much play.
The problem is relative frequencies of real news much more than fake news.
Ezra Klein
Is social media good for people?
Tyler Cowen
We don’t know yet. As I said before, it’s this huge experiment being done without controls. I suspect it’s good for weirdos but maybe not that great for society as a whole. But a lot of us are weirdos, so it may be a net positive.
Ezra Klein
American exceptionalism.
Tyler Cowen
I do believe America is an exceptional nation and should think of itself as such. And this norm weakening is one of my great worries about this current time. If you ask what makes America exceptional, it’s the embedded mix of religiosity and the high status we’re willing to give to businessmen. Our belief that our way of life is best, which of course it isn’t, but we believe it, and that’s overall a good thing. And this Puritan notion that there are individual life projects and it’s your highest calling to pursue them. And we both live by this, even though neither of us is Protestant. And I think that combination is just fantastic, though dangerous too.
Ezra Klein
Making society cashless.
Tyler Cowen
My first book was about a cashless society. And I predicted this will happen, and I think it will happen. But I worry more on the normative side about privacy issues than I did in the past. The book came out in the early ’90s. I didn't think surveillance would be such a big deal. It could be we’re already going to lose our privacy anyway, with or without cash. So I think it will make macro policy in some ways better. But I worry about the bigger trend it’s embedded in, and that’s lack of privacy and way too much surveillance.
Ezra Klein
Transhumanism, biohacking.
Tyler Cowen
I’m more skeptical about CRISPR and genetic engineering than almost all the other smart people I know. I feel we’ll mess it up. I feel tyrants may pursue it more vigorously than free societies. I feel even if it works, it may make the human race too conformist. Parents want a certain amount of conformity in their children, and they want all of their children to do well enough. And we may end up with too few weirdos. So I’m mostly skeptical.
I do hope it works out; there’s a good chance it will. But I’d rather be a voice of caution at current margins.
Ezra Klein
Climate change.
Tyler Cowen
If by climate change you mean global warming caused by CO2 emissions, there’s a growing chance it’s a huge problem. I’m not sure numerically how large that is, but we ought to do what we can against it. I favor a carbon tax, but I suspect that’s not enough. And what to do beyond that, I’m not sure I have the expertise to judge. But I’d say it’s the extra stuff we do that probably will make the difference, and it may just all boil down to luck.
Ezra Klein
Geoengineering.
Tyler Cowen
Well, we’re geoengineering right now, right? That’s climate change. So I don’t reject the notion the way some people do. Some people say, “Oh, you talk about geoengineering, people will get complacent about climate change.” We’re doing geoengineering. My great fear is the evil or semi-evil nations in the world will do it without cooperating. And it’s a great danger. I don’t know how to stop that.
Ezra Klein
The idea that Trump poses a fundamental threat to democratic institutions. That he could build some kind of autocracy, some kind of crony capitalist Putin-esque system. The idea that there is something here that is not just a presidency you disagree with but a presidency that could in some fundamental way alter the workings of our political system going forward.
Tyler Cowen
I do see the Trump administration as a fundamental threat, but I think the main threat is foreign policy. A mix of unpredictability of temperament and uncertainty of policy leading alliances to crumble. And also a higher chance of a war with another major power. That to me is all terrible.
At least so far, I’m a bit more in the Ross Douthat camp, that what Trump is doing are signs of weakness and the system will beat him, than I am in thinking he will end up being a fundamental threat. But look, certainly he’s more of a fundamental threat to democracy than any of the other candidates, who all were at zero on that margin. Still, I’m mostly at this point agreeing with Ross that he doesn’t know what he’s doing. The actual fascists were in fact quite politically skilled, and odds are the system will beat Trump.
Ezra Klein
Making human beings a multi-planet species.
Tyler Cowen
I would be very surprised if that ever happened. Planets are far. They’re harsh. They’re hostile. Why don’t we make Nevada a place to settle, or ocean platforms. There’s plenty of space in the world. Seems a lot easier than other planets. I don’t see what they have to offer in economic terms.
Ezra Klein
But isn’t the idea that if Earth got hit by a giant asteroid, or got ripped through by a terrible pandemic, or had a nuclear war, or [if] global warming becomes much, much worse than we think, that you need and want to have some diversification of your risk?
Tyler Cowen
I don’t think, say, a Mars colony could ever be very large. I suppose they have cheap solar power. But if we destroy ourselves, they’re going to as well. They’re more likely to destroy themselves than we are. They don’t have much in the way of resources.
If people want to try, I’m not opposed. But I’m very skeptical.
Ezra Klein
Effective altruism.
Tyler Cowen
Well, it’s underrated by almost everyone, [because most] people just give money away indiscriminately. But I think people within the effective altruism movement way overrate it. They think they can rationally figure out where’s the best place to give money, and they’re very convinced a lot of establishment donations are not so worthwhile. I’m not sure that’s true.
The idea of giving $1 million to Harvard if you’re an alumnus, I’m not sure that’s the wrong thing to do. Harvard’s this amazing self-sustaining, self-generating cluster. They earn a high rate of return. Even if Harvard’s just a hedge fund, if they can earn 8 percent a year — which by the way, they haven’t been doing lately — that’s highly productive.
I also think they don’t take seriously enough the notion that if you make giving too rational, a lot of people will just do less of it.
Ezra Klein
Superhero movies.
Tyler Cowen
Most of them I don’t like. Spider-Man II I loved. A few of the Supermans I thought were very good. The comic-book-based ones tend to be too tentpole for my tastes, and the powers people have are too arbitrary. I like superheroes like Flash or Superman, where the powers are well-defined and generalizable. But when they’re sort of “three weird things you can do and 11 you can’t,” then you have to keep track of it all and there’s eight superhero mutants walking around the movie. I don’t get it. There should be some kind of economy of means.
Ezra Klein
The idea that this is the golden age of television.
Tyler Cowen
I actually think television right now is not as good as movies, and it’s a cool thing to have all your great, favorite TV shows. But the best movies are for some reason deeper and more moving, and they’re very often from foreign countries. Not from Hollywood, which is at a weak point in its trajectory. But I would rather put my time into movies than television. I do have some shows I watch. But I think we should speak out against TV just a wee bit.
Ezra Klein
Burning Man.
Tyler Cowen
I’ve never been, so I don’t know. That’s, I guess, a way in which I’m not curious enough and I have too much status quo bias. I don’t like the notion that you show up and you’re cut off from your email. Is that how it is?
Ezra Klein
Yeah.
Tyler Cowen
So that to me is trouble.
Ezra Klein
California seceding from the Union.
Tyler Cowen
I don’t think it will ever happen. I don’t think the United States in any feasible time scenario will ever split up. There’s no clear line of demarcation. So Scotland leaving the United Kingdom, Catalonia leaving Spain, I wouldn’t predict either, but it’s clear what the line is, inside/outside. California doesn’t quite have that. It is itself fairly divided. And once it becomes complicated how you split up the groups, as it is, say, in Iraq, that tends to weaken secessionist movements.
Ezra Klein
Brexit.
Tyler Cowen
I think Brexit will go down as a terrible event. But ultimately, I think it probably was necessary. And the EU was always built on overreach. And I’m not sure it will be seen as a big deal. It will be seen, maybe, as a symptom.
Ezra Klein
Why is that?
Tyler Cowen
If you think the European Union will get weaker anyway, and some other countries will leave anyway, no one’s going to point their finger and say, “Oh, those people behind Brexit, what wrong they did.” Nationalist intuitions don’t go away. We’re in an era where they’re becoming stronger. And if you try to make everything multinational, it doesn’t work. I think it’s one thing we’re learning. It’s a shame. I would love to see free migration of Poles and Romanians into the United Kingdom. I don’t think it’s sustainable, though.
Ezra Klein
Life hacking, productivity hacking, the sort of Tim Ferriss 4-Hour Workweek stuff.
Tyler Cowen
Well, “four-hour workweek” is also known as unemployment. Those are mostly placebos, but placebos are beneficial. So you talk about them as an excuse or substitute for doing something. But at the same time, that’s good for you, because if you’re too anxious about not doing anything, you’ll get more anxious yet and not do anything at all.
Ezra Klein
The rationality community.
Tyler Cowen
Well, tell me a little more what you mean. You mean Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Ezra Klein
Yeah, I mean Less Wrong, Slate Star Codex. Julia Galef, Robin Hanson. Sometimes Bryan Caplan is grouped in here. The community of people who are frontloading ideas like signaling, cognitive biases, etc.
Tyler Cowen
Well, I enjoy all those sources, and I read them. That’s obviously a kind of endorsement. But I would approve of them much more if they called themselves the irrationality community. Because it is just another kind of religion. A different set of ethoses. And there’s nothing wrong with that, but the notion that this is, like, the true, objective vantage point I find highly objectionable. And that pops up in some of those people more than others. But I think it needs to be realized it’s an extremely culturally specific way of viewing the world, and that’s one of the main things travel can teach you.
Ezra Klein
Who do you always make a point to read?
Tyler Cowen
You!
Ezra Klein
Oh, thank you.
Tyler Cowen
But I think overall I rely more on what is recommended to me a few times rather than the name of the person. So some of the people I would always read no matter what, like Derek Parfit or Fischer Black, they’ve passed away. And we’re moving to a world where the amount of good or great content is higher than ever before. But it’s less person-tagged than ever before as well.
Ezra Klein
Where are you getting those recommendations?
Tyler Cowen
Some of it is verbal. Some of it’s my Twitter feed. Most of it’s people email me things. I sometimes say my business model is reading my email. My philosophy is to answer every serious email I get. And if you do that, and get a lot of emails, over time people will email you wonderful things.
