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eMarketer cut Snap’s 2017 revenue estimate by almost 4 percent

The research firm shaved $34 million off its January estimate.

Asa Mathat for Recode

Research firm eMarketer dropped its 2017 revenue estimates for Snap based on the company’s recently filed IPO paperwork.

EMarketer projects that Snap will bring in $770 million in advertising revenue in the U.S., or 1.3 percent of all projected U.S. mobile ad revenue for the year. That’s down from the $804 million eMarketer projected for Snap back in January.

That change brings eMarketer’s total revenue projection for Snap to just over $900 million for the year, down from $935 million six weeks ago. That’s a difference of a bit more than 3.6 percent.

The reason for the change? Snap had “higher-than-estimated revenue sharing with partners,” eMarketer wrote in a study published Tuesday.

Snap paid its publishing partners $58 million last year, and often splits revenue with them in exchange for content that they create specifically for Snapchat. (The company is looking for alternatives to these revenue-sharing deals, though.)

Take these numbers with a grain of salt, of course. Snap has been public for less than two weeks, and eMarketer’s projections are just that — projections.

Others, like Goodwater Capital, project that Snap will bring in $1.1 billion in 2017. Investors and company insiders have told Recode in the past that Snap projects to be a $1 billion business this year.

So the estimates can range.

But many believe that Snap’s stock is already overvalued — it has a market cap of more than $24 billion, more than double Twitter’s, which did six times Snap’s revenue last year. So investors are watching Snap closely, and estimates from well-known research firms don’t go unnoticed.

This article originally appeared on

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