Donald Trump is president. In an even modestly long sweep, this remains a stunning development. If you’d bet $1,000 on it coming true, the day Trump announced his run for the White House, you’d be collecting $200,000 now.
You could bank even more if you could predict how Trump’s time in office will play out in Washington. Almost any scenario seems in play, including a heyday of conservative policy that overshadows even the Reagan years; a blizzard of bipartisan dealmaking unseen in a generation; or a quick descent into hyper-intense, one-party gridlock.
We’re not fortune tellers at Vox, but our reporting has led us to believe that some scenarios are more likely than others when it comes to the political and policy developments of the next few years. We’ve collected several of those scenarios for you here. Treat them as a best-guess guide to how the Trump era is going to go — but no gambling, please.
- The short-term: Dylan Matthews on what will change immediately under Trump
- Ezra Klein on how Trump’s administration may end up at war with itself — forcing the president to develop new skills to deal with the challenge
- Matt Yglesias on the sea change coming in US trade policy
- Dara Lind on how border agents and rank-and-file police will take the reins of public safety
- Jim Tankersley on how a “Trump Boom” could sweep the economy
- Andrew Prokop on how Trump’s Cabinet-empowerment strategy is courting chaos
- And historian Nicole Hemmer on how revulsion toward Trump could unite and galvanize a fractured Democratic Party