Okay, hear me out, but I don't think Donald Trump is going to be the president

The latest CNN/ORC election poll doesn't just ask voters who they plan on voting for (Clinton beats Trump by 5 points, for what it's worth). It also asked registered voters to describe how they would feel if Clinton or Trump won the presidency: Would they be afraid, or embarrassed, or proud, or excited, or hopeful? The results for Trump are some pretty rough stuff:

Fifty-six percent would be afraid if Trump won, and 56 percent would be embarrassed (we don’t know if this is the same 56 percent but presumably there’s considerable overlap). Only a quarter would be proud.

The results for Clinton are more tempered than you might suspect. Relatively few people are excited or proud about the prospect of a Clinton presidency (though she still fares better than Trump). But at the very least, most voters wouldn’t be afraid or embarrassed:

CNN/ORC

This is just one poll, and it specifically looks at registered voters, which tends to overstate Democrats’ strength relative to polls of likely voters (Republicans who are registered are more likely to actually turn out than Democrats).

But the overall conclusion has been backed up by favorability and horse race polling for months. Both presidential nominees are more disliked than they are liked. In fact, Clinton and Trump are the most disliked nominees in history:

Brendan Nyhan

But Trump is substantially more disliked. He currently boasts a net approval rating of -23.8 points according to HuffPost Pollster, compared to -12.8 for Clinton. And so while 39 percent of Americans may purport to be embarrassed by a Clinton presidency, 56 percent say that about Trump.

So far this is translating into a fluctuating but consistent lead for Clinton in national polling, which has risen since she beat Bernie Sanders once and for all in California.

* * *

The political science that predicted Trump's rise

We're here to shed some clarity

One of our core beliefs here at Vox is that everyone needs and deserves access to the information that helps them understand the world, regardless of whether they can pay for a subscription. With the 2024 election on the horizon, more people are turning to us for clear and balanced explanations of the issues and policies at stake. We’re so grateful that we’re on track to hit 85,000 contributions to the Vox Contributions program before the end of the year, which in turn helps us keep this work free. We need to add 2,500 contributions this month to hit that goal. Will you make a contribution today to help us hit this goal and support our policy coverage? Any amount helps.

One-Time Monthly Annual

$5/month

$10/month

$25/month

$50/month

Other

$

Yes, I'll give $5/month

Yes, I'll give $5/month

We accept credit card, Apple Pay, and Google Pay. You can also contribute via