Donald Trump is back home, and he's feeling like a winner again. According to quick calls by multiple media outlets, the billionaire has won the New York Republican primary in a landslide.
The votes are still being counted, but Trump's two remaining rivals, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, don't even appear to have come close. This is no surprise — the polls showed Trump ahead by 30 points.
Yet the question of just how much of a winner Trump is remains to be determined, and will depend on his final vote total both statewide and in each of New York's 27 congressional districts.
That's the real drama tonight, because it's still very unclear whether Trump can manage to put together a delegate majority before the convention.
To get that majority, he likely needs to win the vast majority of delegates in New York. And to pull that off, Trump needs to top 50 percent of the vote both statewide and in as many congressional districts as possible.
The big question: How often will Trump top 50 percent?
New York has 95 delegates overall, making it the second-biggest delegate prize remaining (after California). But the winner of the state doesn't automatically get all the delegates.
In fact, just 14 of New York's 95 Republican delegates are allotted based on the statewide vote. So if Trump tops 50 percent statewide, he wins all 14 of those delegates. But if he finishes below that, he'll split that haul with the other candidates who topped 20 percent.
That means that the real action is in at the district level, which will provide the other 81 of the state's delegates (three per district).
If Trump tops 50 percent in a district, he'll win all three of that district's delegates. If he wins the district but doesn't reach 50 percent, he'll get two of three. If he comes in second he'll get just one.
It will likely take some time before we know results on the congressional district level. So it could be a while before we know just how well Trump did.
The calendar has been cruel to Trump lately, but it's about to get kinder
After a monthlong period where Trump had little to be happy about, the calendar is now finally turning in his favor.
Next week, five Northeastern or mid-Atlantic states — Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Maryland, Connecticut, and Delaware — are set to vote. Trump is expected to win all five of these — the Northeast has been a particularly strong region for him (and a bad one for Cruz), and the polling we have points to Trump victories.
Again, since delegate rules vary, much could depend on the exact margin and geographic breakdown of Trump's victories — and, in Pennsylvania, on a bizarre system in which unbound delegates are elected on the ballot without any disclosure of who they support.
But any victories at all will help fuel Trump's argument that he's the choice of the voters, and that any action intended to swing a convention against him is illegitimate and corrupt.
After that, there will be five contests in May (Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon, and Washington) and then five more on June 7, the final day of GOP voting (California, New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana, and New Mexico).
