"If Donald Trump wins, that's it. I'm moving to Canada."
You've probably heard someone say it out of exasperation or resignation. People say it every presidential election — and this election, the unprecedented WTFness of the Republican Party frontrunner has the idea of heading north on a lot of people's minds.
How many people? More than a quarter of Americans, it turns out.
Our latest Vox/Morning Consult poll asked nearly 2,000 registered voters, "If Donald Trump were elected President of the United States in November how likely are you to consider moving to another country, such as Canada?"
Here's what we found:
Liberals and nonwhites are especially likely to consider moving out
In all, 28 percent of respondents said they were either "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to consider peacing out of the US. But, unsurprisingly, some demographics were more interested in emigration than others.
We found a pronounced ideological split: 49 percent of liberals described themselves as very or somewhat likely to consider leaving the country if Trump were elected, with 30 percent picking "very likely." Compare that with 12 percent of conservatives who said they were very or somewhat likely to consider the option.
Groups that skew liberal — young people, students, people who selected "women's issues" as the most important issue facing the country — were also more likely to consider emigration.
Given Trump's ability to stir up racial animus, it's perhaps not surprising that nonwhite respondents were a lot more likely to say they'd consider leaving than white respondents were. But the numbers are still impressive: More than half of Hispanic respondents said they'd at least consider it.
Interestingly, though, it's not just liberals. Self-identified Tea Party supporters are slightly more likely than other voters to consider abandoning Trump's America: 31% of them said they were very or somewhat likely to consider it, compared with 27% of non-Tea Partiers.
A lot of Americans are already researching a move to Canada
"Consider" can mean a lot of things. Our poll didn't ask how serious the respondents were about moving. And while we suggested Canada as a possible destination, there's no reason to believe that all of our respondents would want to move north, no matter how dreamy Justin Trudeau is.
But as my colleague Zack Beauchamp wrote after the March 1 primaries, a lot of Americans are at least doing preliminary research: So many people Googled "Move to Canada" that the website of the Canadian immigration agency got overwhelmed.
Google Trends showed that interest after the March 1 primaries in moving to Canada was the highest it had been in 10 years.
And if history — or, at least, the last time a Republican won the White House — is any guide, Googling interest will only grow from here.