Vox Sentences: Saturday night’s alright for caucusing

Nevada Dems caucus and South Carolina Republicans ... whatever the verb form of "primary" is; the EU's plan to avoid a Brexit (and what a Brexit is).

Vox Sentences is written by Dylan Matthews and Dara Lind.

TOP NEWS

High-card draw

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

• Saturday brings two presidential contests: The Democrats will caucus in Nevada, while Republicans will go to the polls for the primary in South Carolina.

• Nevada, which was supposed to be "Hillary country" — and which had barely been polled before this week — looks like a neck-and-neck race right now. Bernie Sanders might actually pull this off, or at least make it close.

  [Huffington Post / Natalie Jackson, Ariel Edwards-Levy, and Janie Valencia]

• However, because of the way the state works, the candidate who loses the popular vote can win more delegates if he or she has strong enough support in northern Nevada. That's what happened in 2008.

  [The Atlantic / Nora Kelly]

• Because this is Nevada, of course, tied caucus results will be decided not with an Iowa-style coin toss, but with high-card draw.

  [CNN / Gregory Krieg]

• Expect a lot of analysis about the Latino vote. The candidates' efforts to win over Latinos have provided some of the most bitter fighting in the race. The culmination (so far) might be this searing op-ed by labor leader Dolores Huerta, excoriating Sanders's immigration record.

  [Medium / Dolores Huerta ]

• But bear in mind that a lot of young Latinos, in particular, may vote without being blown away by either candidate.

  [Vox / Dara Lind]

• Expectations game: If Clinton wins by less than 5 points, it'll be labeled "disappointing." If Sanders wins, it'll be "stunning."

  [NYT / Amy Chozick]

Make South Carolina Great Again

Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images

• Meanwhile, in South Carolina, Donald Trump is probably going to win. But the polls might, just might, be tightening.

  [RealClearPolitics]

• That might explain why Donald Trump is pulling out all the stops against Ted Cruz, threatening to sue Cruz over a Cruz ad attacking Trump on abortion. (Cruz: "I'll take the deposition.")

  [RealClearPolitics / Caitlin Huey-Burns]

• Some Trump supporters, meanwhile, actually have brought a suit against Cruz — challenging his "natural-born" citizenship — and a judge has actually agreed to hear the case.

  [Vox / Jeff Stein and Dara Lind]

• Cruz's side isn't exactly taking the high road, for what it's worth. A pro-Cruz PAC is making robocalls attacking Trump (as well as Gov. Nikki Haley, who endorsed Marco Rubio) for failing to support "our flag." The "our" there is the Confederate battle flag.

  [Post and Courier / Schuyler Kropf]

• Oh, right, about Rubio: His campaign is now trying to persuade the press that their vaunted "3-2-1" strategy (which was supposed to have him win second place in New Hampshire and be about to win South Carolina) will work as a "3-5-3" strategy.

  [Huffington Post / Igor Bobic]

• Expectations game: If Trump loses, or even just squeaks out a win, it'll be a "collapse." But if he wins all of South Carolina's delegates, a lot of people will be saying the nomination is over.

  [Washington Post / Philip Bump]

Brexit, explained

Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

• UK Prime Minister David Cameron has negotiated a special set of favorable terms from the European Union — in the event that voters agree to stay in the EU, after a referendum this spring on whether to leave (or "Brexit").

  [Telegraph (UK) / Michael Wilkinson, Barney Henderson and David Millward]

• The deal is supposed to mollify Britain's nationalistic right. It includes longer periods of withholding government benefits from immigrants, and an explicit exemption for Brits from the EU's mission of bringing the peoples of Europe closer together.

  [The Guardian / Nicholas Watt, Ian Traynor and Jennifer Rankin]

• But a lot of people in Cameron's own Conservative Party support "Brexit." As of today, that appears to include his close ally Justice Secretary Michael Gove.

  [BBC]

• Will Brits vote for Brexit? It's not clear. Online polls are showing a very close race; phone polls are showing a pretty solid win for staying in.

  [Telegraph (UK) / Matthew Goodwin]

• If the UK leaves, it'll be by far the biggest country to leave the EU — and could make it easier for other countries to follow. That's why if Britain does leave, the EU might consider a tough trade policy against it.

  [Washington Post / Adam Taylor]

• Of course, the possibiltiy of trade barriers is making financial markets very unhappy with the prospect of Brexit.

  [The Economist]

• Ironically, the UK's anti-EU posturing could actually have hurt its negotiating position — as the Conservatives abandoned alliances with other center-right parties in Europe who could have helped its leverage.

  [Financial Times / Kate Allen and Henry Mance]

MISCELLANEOUS

The case for bringing back welfare. [NY Mag / Annie Lowrey]

• Albert Woodfox has been in solitary confinement for the past 43 years. He's finally getting out of jail.

  [The Guardian / Ed Pilkington]

• Stephen Lund doesn't just track his bike rides across Victoria, British Columbia. He chooses his bike paths so that the resulting GPS recap is a recognizable drawing.

  [BBC]

• Marco Rubio's best idea: letting anyone use the Thrift Savings Plan, the awesome retirement package the federal government gives its employees.

  [Slate / Helaine Olen]

• Discussion of Justice Antonin Scalia's replacement has quickly turned to specific candidates and the politics of the nomination. But it's worth dwelling on just how fundamentally a liberal in that seat could change American law.

  [NYT / Adam Liptak]

VERBATIM

"They’re paid to develop intimate relationships with strangers and ultimately use those relationships to send them to prison. It takes a damaged person to betray someone like that.’" Trevor Aaronson to NYT Mag / Mattathias Schwartz

• "I said to him, 'Neil, are you scared that you will die in space?' and Neil Armstrong said to me, 'Mr. President, I am worried about dying in space, but my irrational lust for bizarre faraway rocks is stronger than my fear of exploding.'"

  [Clickhole]

• "If a woman is frosty or standoffish or doesn’t laugh at your joke, consider the notion that maybe she is not an uptight, humorless bitch, but rather has had experiences that are outside your realm of understanding, and have adversely colored her perception of the world. Consider that while you’re just joking around, a woman might actually be doing some quick mental math to see if she’s going to have to hide in a fucking bathroom stall and call someone to come help her, like I did three days ago."

  [Medium / Laura Munoz]

• "Her experience in the world has been 'Stay invisible. Don’t make waves.' And 300 people are standing up, and they’re applauding, like, 'I see you.'"

  [Martyna Majok to NYT / Laura Collins-Hughes]

• "At The Biggest Group Date Ever, there were seven Bachelors, all men who once appeared on The Bachelorette and lost. For the chance to meet and potentially seduce one of these guys, attendees paid $60 each, and at the end of the night, there was a 'man auction,' where women bid on 30 minutes of alone time with the Bachelor of their choice."

  [Gawker / Allie Jones]

WATCH THIS

Why Bernie Sanders tawks that way [YouTube / Joss Fong]

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