The markets aren’t, and that’s unusual. That’s because they’re banking on early election data from startup VoteCastr that, for the moment, shows Hillary Clinton with a slight edge.
Stocks climbed and U.S. Treasuries fell (the two tend to move in opposite directions) based on VoteCastr’s turnout data — estimates of who showed up to vote — which favors Clinton. There are caveats to VoteCastr’s methodology, which we’ve told you about before.
But in the absence of hard election numbers during the trading day, investors seized on VoteCastr’s estimates. Remember, meaningful exit polling won’t appear till closer to 9 pm on the East Coast, hours after the market closes.
“That data is the talk of the town at the moment,” one trader, Nicholas Colas, told the Financial Times. “[It] shows how desperate traders are for any edge.”
This article originally appeared on Recode.net.