Don’t believe the hype. Donald Trump wants massive tax cuts for the rich.

Donald Trump's campaign claims that his tax cut plan would offer "tax relief for middle-class Americans." That's not wrong, exactly — but a new analysis from the left-leaning tax analysis shop Citizens for Tax Justice suggests that the group of Americans getting the most relief would be the top 1 percent:

As the above chart indicates, the top 1 percent would get an even bigger tax cut under Trump's plan than they would under Jeb Bush's plan. CTJ estimates that the poorest fifth of Americans — with average incomes of $15,600 a year — would get an average cut of $250, or 1.6 percent of their average income. The middle fifth would get an average of $2,571, or 5 percent of their income, back. But the top 1 percent would get an average tax cut of $227,225, or 12.7 percent. By contrast, the top 1 percent would get $177,246 back, on average, under Bush's plan.

In total, the top 1 percent would get 37 percent of the benefit from Trump's cuts, and the top fifth would get a full 70 percent of the benefit.

Trump's campaign also claimed that the tax plan would cost nothing. CTJ's analysis suggests that's false, concluding that the plan would cost a whopping $10.8 trillion in its first decade. For context, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that individual and corporate income taxes will bring in $25.5 trillion from 2016 to 2025; Trump is thus proposing slashing income tax revenue by more than 40 percent. That's high even compared with some of his White House rivals' plans. CTJ estimates that Bush's plan would cost $7.1 trillion over ten years. The right-leaning Tax Foundation estimates that Marco Rubio's would cost $414 billion a year, or $4.1 trillion over 10. Both cost much less than Trump's plan. Rand Paul, however, managed to top Trump with a plan costing $15 trillion, per CTJ.

Correction/Update: The original version of this post used preliminary numbers for Jeb Bush from Citizens for Tax Justice. Those incorporated his individual cuts, but not his corporate cuts. The chart and post have been updated with corporate cut-inclusive numbers for Bush to enable a more apples to apples comparison with Trump.

Update: Citizens for Tax Justice has also subsequently issued new analysis of Trump's plan, which is now incorporated into this post.

Will you support Vox’s explanatory journalism?

Most news outlets make their money through advertising or subscriptions. But when it comes to what we’re trying to do at Vox, there are a couple reasons that we can't rely only on ads and subscriptions to keep the lights on.

First, advertising dollars go up and down with the economy. We often only know a few months out what our advertising revenue will be, which makes it hard to plan ahead.

Second, we’re not in the subscriptions business. Vox is here to help everyone understand the complex issues shaping the world — not just the people who can afford to pay for a subscription. We believe that’s an important part of building a more equal society. We can’t do that if we have a paywall.

That’s why we also turn to you, our readers, to help us keep Vox free. If you also believe that everyone deserves access to trusted high-quality information, will you make a gift to Vox today?

One-Time Monthly Annual

$5/month

$10/month

$25/month

$50/month

Other

$

Yes, I'll give $5/month

Yes, I'll give $5/month

We accept credit card, Apple Pay, and Google Pay. You can also contribute via