2015 Emmys picks: Here's who should win every one of TV's top prizes

We've found room to reward everything from Inside Amy Schumer to Game of Thrones

By Emily St. James@emilyvdw Sep 18, 2015, 11:00am EDT

It's time for Jon Hamm to win his Emmy. You know it. I know it. Hopefully the Emmys know it too.

Emily St. James was a senior correspondent for Vox, covering American identities. Before she joined Vox in 2014, she was the first TV editor of the A.V. Club.

The 67th annual Emmy Awards arrive Sunday, September 20, to honor the best in television for the 2014-15 TV season. Though that might seem long in the past (the cutoff date was May 31!), it's a long-standing tradition by now, the last big event before the fall TV season officially starts the very next day.

There will be a time for predictions of who will win the awards (and ours will arrive Sunday), but it's also good to talk about who should win the awards, because we all know the Emmys will never make the right choice. We've gone through and made picks in every single category being awarded Sunday night, and all of our choices are absolutely correct and binding. If the Emmys don't follow our choices, to the letter, you will know that they've gotten it disastrously wrong.

This year is filled with some hugely competitive categories, and a couple of cake walks. But let's start with one of the most competitive categories of them all.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Beautiful and moving, Transparent deserves the Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series.

You could make a case for any show not named Modern Family winning here. (Nothing against the Pritchett-Tucker-Dunphys, but it's hard to imagine they deserve a sixth award in a row.) Parks is a classic that had a terrific swan song. Veep is TV's most savage satire. Kimmy was a burst of sunshine and fresh air. Louie has somehow never won this award, despite being the decade's best show. And Silicon Valley made me laugh more than any other show. But it's hard to not choose Transparent, which was as lovely and delicate as most TV is bland and overstuffed. It's my favorite here and would be a fantastic winner.

Outstanding Drama Series

Mad Men deserves one last win for the road.

The choice here is much easier. I liked the recent seasons of most of these shows (save House of Cards and Downton), but it really comes down to the groundbreaking, empathetic storytelling of Orange versus the all-time classic Mad Men. And though it's won four times before, I can't help but be swayed by that terrific series finale. Mad Men it is.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Did you know that Jon Hamm has never won an Emmy Award? Did you know that no actor from Mad Men has won an Emmy Award? Odenkirk is good, but this is an easy call. Jon Hamm all the way.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

There are some good nominees here, like Maslany, Moss, and Davis. But there's only one instantly iconic performance in this list, and it's that of Taraji P. Henson. TV characters like Cookie Lyon come along only every once in a while. Why not reward the woman who made that character who she is?

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

All due respect to everybody else in this category (including the very good Anderson, C.K., and Forte), but this is the easiest pick of the night. Jeffrey Tambor should win, going away.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

In general, TV's lead actress categories are better than its lead actor categories right now, which is a heartening development. This is a very, very tough call. Do you reward Poehler for years of stellar work that never netted a win? Julia Louis-Dreyfus gives, consistently, one of TV's sharpest performances. And Amy Schumer is having one hell of a creative year. But I don't think there was a performance with more nakedly emotional depths than Lisa Kudrow's. Even if her show isn't a favorite of mine, I can't deny how good she is in it.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Banks is tremendous in his showcase Better Call Saul episode, but it too often feels like an extension of Breaking Bad, the series where his character first appeared. Overall, as a body of work across the season, Ben Mendelsohn's tortured performance is stronger.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Aduba is consistently fantastic but was underutilized in the second season (the one she's eligible for). Hendricks has always been a strong player in the Mad Men universe. But nobody had a season as brutal or amazing as Lena Headey, who should probably win for the "Shame" scene from the finale alone.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Key & Peele — Keegan-Michael Key (right) is the best.

Another category with tons of great choices, but for as hard as it is to separate him from his partner, I'm going to have to go with Keegan-Michael Key. Few actors on TV are as versatile as Key and Jordan Peele.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

The art of acting in front of a live studio audience is an underestimated one, but Allison Janney makes it look incredibly easy, week after week. There are plenty of great nominees here, but Janney often pulls her show to some other level entirely.

Outstanding Limited Series

This is not as strong of a category as it has been in the past, which makes it easy to pick Olive Kitteridge, which was one of my favorite shows of 2014.

Outstanding Reality Competition Program

The Amazing Race
Dancing with the Stars
Project Runway
So You Think You Can Dance
Top Chef
The Voice

Why do the Emmys keep nominating the same shows in this category, year after year after year? When The Voice is the newbie, you know you have a problem. I abstain from choosing something in this category.

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

The Colbert Report
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
The Late Show with David Letterman
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

This is the last chance ever to reward The Colbert Report (though, presumably, he'll be nominated next year for The Late Show), and while Daily Show will technically still be eligible next year, it's unlikely Comedy Central will want to push Jon Stewart over Trevor Noah. It's also the last chance to ever reward David Letterman, which could cause a burst of sentimentality. But you know what? I'm giving this to Last Week Tonight, which felt new and different and real in a way late-night rarely does.

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

inside amy schumer — It would be great to see Inside Amy Schumer take home the inaugural Outstanding Variety Sketch Series award.

Drunk History
Inside Amy Schumer
Key & Peele
Portlandia
Saturday Night Live

This is a tough call between two excellent Comedy Central series, particularly since this category is brand new and, thus, neither has won before. But I'm going to go with Inside Amy Schumer by a nose over Key & Peele, if only for the 12 Angry Men episode.

And everything else

The Emmys will award lots more categories at their ceremony. To read a full list of nominees, go here. But my picks in the other categories follow.

Outstanding Directing of a Drama Series: The Knick, "Method and Madness," directed by Steven Soderbergh
Outstanding Writing of a Drama Series: The Americans, "Do Mail Robots Dream of Electric Sheep?" written by Joshua Brand
Outstanding Directing of a Comedy Series: Transparent, "Best New Girl," directed by Jill Soloway
Outstanding Writing of a Comedy Series: Silicon Valley, "Two Days of the Condor," written by Alec Berg
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie: Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie: Frances McDormand, Olive Kitteridge
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie: Richard Cabral, American Crime
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie: Angela Bassett, American Horror Story: Freak Show
Outstanding Directing of a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special: Olive Kitteridge, directed by Lisa Cholodenko
Outstanding Writing of a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special: Wolf Hall, written by Peter Straughan
Outstanding Directing of a Variety Series: Inside Amy Schumer, "12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer," directed by Amy Schumer and Ryan McFaul
Outstanding Writing of a Variety Series: Key & Peele

Contributions are a key part of the future of Vox

Readers rely on Vox for clear, nuanced coverage that not only illuminates the issues, but poses solutions, too. And we rely on help from our readers: Advertising and grants cover the majority of our costs, but we count on contributions to help us close the gaps in our budget. In fact, we’re looking to reach 95,000 individual contributions before the end of the year. Will you make the next contribution right now? Our average gift is just $20 — and it goes a long way in helping us keep our work free. Vox is here to help everyone understand what’s shaping the world — not just the people who can afford to pay for a subscription. We believe that’s an important part of building a more equal society. Join that mission by making a contribution today.

One-Time Monthly Annual

$5/month

$10/month

$25/month

$50/month

Other

Yes, I'll give $5/month

We accept credit card, Apple Pay, and Google Pay. You can also contribute via