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A Greece crisis take that's actually optimistic and somewhat persuasive

If you are looking for an argument that the Greek "no" vote on this weekend's referendum doesn't mean Greece will end up leaving the eurozone, you won't do better than to read these tweets from Irish economist Karl Whelan.

The basic case is pretty simple: Getting some financial assistance from Europe is better for Greece than getting no assistance, and getting some debts repaid is better for Europe than getting no debts repaid. So as long as Greece wants to be in the eurozone and the eurozone wants to avoid a Greek departure, the rational thing is to cut a deal.

The referendum means Europe can't hope for a new Greek government

The contours of a deal are visible

End austerity in exchange for serious reform

A deal is a win-win

The question: Does Europe want a deal?

What's unknown here is whether Europe really wants a deal. Whelan says the eurozone hasn't truly been "ring-fenced" against the consequences of a Greek departure. That's not something everyone agrees with. And in the eyes of many northern Europeans, all that's happened over the past month is that the Greeks have proven themselves to be untrustworthy partners whom one doesn't want to be in business with. And in the eyes of many southern European politicians, if Greece's special pleading gets them a better deal that will make their own strategies look ridiculous.

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