The one thing that makes me take Donald Trump seriously as a candidate — Rush Limbaugh

Conventional wisdom says that despite his lead in the polls, Donald Trump can't win the Republican Party presidential nomination.

And I agree with that. At least, I agree with it six days a week.

The other day, I am paying attention to Rush Limbaugh.

When Trump's diss of John McCain's military service became a cudgel for people to use against him, Limbaugh called it a "teachable moment" about how "the Washington establishment and media" operate, and he predicted that Trump would survive it by refusing to back down. On Thursday, Limbaugh took a victory lap on Trump's behalf, saying "Trump beat back the outrage machine."

It would be going too far to say that Limbaugh is supporting Trump. But he's not not supporting Trump. And he's certainly not trying to destroy Trump.

This matters because major conservative mass media entrepreneurs arguably count as influential party leaders just as much as members of Congress or governors. And it's not obvious that Rush and his fellow talk radio stars especially share a conventional politician's cynical interest in winning elections. Trump versus Clinton would be a heck of a show, and a Democrat in the White House is probably better for ratings anyway. David Frum has long worried that conservative talk radio has this kind of perverse incentive to push the GOP in tactically unsound directions.

All of which is to say that it's at least conceivable that important elements of the conservative media would rally around Trump, and that would give him a form of establishment support that he thus far desperately lacks.

This is probably good news for Jeb Bush

Still, the more likely scenario is that this is simply all good news for Jeb Bush.

Bush's greatest weakness in the campaign is that Scott Walker is an utterly plausible nominee who has a clearly more conservative record in office. Every day that conservative talk radio is not talking about this is a good day for Jeb Bush. Trump is simply a much, much, much, much less plausible nominee than Walker or Rick Perry or even Ted Cruz. Conservative media supporting Walker is a real threat to Bush. Conservative media chasing after a shiny Trump-shaped object is, objectively, a favor to Bush because it sucks up oxygen that his lesser-known rivals need.

Will you support Vox’s explanatory journalism?

Most news outlets make their money through advertising or subscriptions. But when it comes to what we’re trying to do at Vox, there are a couple of big issues with relying on ads and subscriptions to keep the lights on:

First, advertising dollars go up and down with the economy. We often only know a few months out what our advertising revenue will be, which makes it hard to plan ahead.

Second, we’re not in the subscriptions business. Vox is here to help everyone understand the complex issues shaping the world — not just the people who can afford to pay for a subscription. We believe that’s an important part of building a more equal society. And we can’t do that if we have a paywall.

So even though advertising is still our biggest source of revenue, we also seek grants and reader support. (And no matter how our work is funded, we have strict guidelines on editorial independence.)

If you also believe that everyone deserves access to trusted high-quality information, will you make a gift to Vox today? Any amount helps.

One-Time Monthly Annual

$5/month

$10/month

$25/month

$50/month

Other

$

Yes, I'll give $5/month

Yes, I'll give $5/month

We accept credit card, Apple Pay, and Google Pay. You can also contribute via