Today's big Senate trade vote, explained

The Senate will vote today on legislation that could finally give President Barack Obama Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). The measure would guarantee trade deals he negotiates an up-or-down vote from Congress, smoothing the way for the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership deal with about a dozen Pacific Rim nations.

Obama and Republican leaders in Congress have struggled to pass TPA legislation over the past few weeks. Back in May, the Senate passed a trade package that combined TPA with an extension of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA), programs to help workers whose jobs are displaced by foreign competition. But this package died in the House — Republicans were unwilling to vote for TAA, which they viewed as wasteful government spending, while many House Democrats wanted to stop a trade agreement they saw as a bad deal.

So last week, the House passed a standalone TPA bill and sent it back to the Senate. The difficulty was that Republicans in the Senate needed help from a few Democrats to overcome an expected filibuster. And these Democrats have refused to vote for TPA unless the assistance for displaced workers was included. For a while, it seemed like the gridlock would doom Obama's whole trade agenda.

Now congressional leaders appear to be on the verge of a compromise. Republican leaders have promised that once TPA has passed, they will bring up TAA for a separate vote. And with TAA no longer tied to TPA, it should receive broad support from Democrats, easing its passage. At least that has been Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-KY) pitch to wavering Senate Democrats.

But the vote will be close. The package needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and the Senate's previous trade bill passed by a 62-38 vote, leaving just two votes to spare. That means Obama and McConnell will need the support of almost all of the 13 Democrats who supported the first trade bill to pass the new bill. And despite intense lobbying from the president, several of these Democratic senators have refused to commit to supporting the legislation over concerns that aid for workers might not actually pass.

Will you support Vox’s explanatory journalism?

Most news outlets make their money through advertising or subscriptions. But when it comes to what we’re trying to do at Vox, there are a couple of big issues with relying on ads and subscriptions to keep the lights on:

First, advertising dollars go up and down with the economy. We often only know a few months out what our advertising revenue will be, which makes it hard to plan ahead.

Second, we’re not in the subscriptions business. Vox is here to help everyone understand the complex issues shaping the world — not just the people who can afford to pay for a subscription. We believe that’s an important part of building a more equal society. And we can’t do that if we have a paywall.

So even though advertising is still our biggest source of revenue, we also seek grants and reader support. (And no matter how our work is funded, we have strict guidelines on editorial independence.)

If you also believe that everyone deserves access to trusted high-quality information, will you make a gift to Vox today? Any amount helps.

One-Time Monthly Annual

$5/month

$10/month

$25/month

$50/month

Other

$

Yes, I'll give $5/month

Yes, I'll give $5/month

We accept credit card, Apple Pay, and Google Pay. You can also contribute via