House Freedom Caucus almost endorses Paul Ryan, but doesn't quite get there

Paul Ryan said Tuesday night that he'd only run for speaker of the House if every major caucus in the party — including the hard-line Freedom Caucus — endorsed him.

On Wednesday night, that sort of happened, and sort of didn't.

After a meeting, some prominent Freedom Caucus members said that a supermajority of its members would support Ryan — two-thirds, Rep. Raúl Labrador told reporters.

However, that is not enough for a formal endorsement. According to the Freedom Caucus's rules, 80 percent of its members must agree for that to happen. And Ryan didn't get there. Around 13 of the caucus's 40-odd members (there's no public membership list) wouldn't back him — he was just five votes or so shy of the endorsement.

The ball is in Ryan's court now

What happens next is unclear. Technically, Ryan's conditions have not been met — but they almost were. He could simply choose to interpret this supermajority support as an "endorsement," and run for speaker.

Indeed, top Freedom Caucus members insisted after the meeting that Ryan would have the 218 votes necessary to be elected speaker on the floor — signifying that they wouldn't make trouble for him.

House Freedom Caucus voted to support Paul Ryan - not an official endorsement. Mulvaney says ryan now has votes to be Speaker

— Deirdre Walsh (@deirdrewalshcnn) October 21, 2015

Labrador says he hopes HFC "supermajority" and "offer of support" is enough for Ryan pic.twitter.com/HG4GwB6XRN

— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 22, 2015

And the official Freedom Caucus release heaped praise on Ryan — but also stressed that its members wouldn't necessarily accept Ryan's "preconditions for serving," which notably include a rules change that would dilute their power:

FREEDOM CAUCUS STATEMENT pic.twitter.com/uAmiqywz9A

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 22, 2015

So the question is whether all this is good enough for Ryan. Does he think this is sufficient to pave the way to a more functional House of Representatives? Or does he think that without full support and without the rules change, he's doomed to end up like Boehner did?

Update: Ryan's response seems to imply he'll treat this as an endorsement and run for speaker.

My statement after a meeting of the House Freedom Caucus: pic.twitter.com/lxmzBrUcms

— Paul Ryan (@PRyan) October 22, 2015

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