A China expert explains what Hong Kong's protests mean for China

Patrick Chovanec, a long-time resident and thoughtful observer of China (now in New York at an asset management company), tweeted out this series of thoughtful observations about the growing crisis in Hong Kong. He makes some excellent and insightful points about the demonstrations in Hong Kong, which began on September 24 as protest against China reneging on its promise to grant the city fully democracy in 2017.

Pay particular to what Chovanec says about what the protests do and do not mean for the rest of China, which is crucial for how this all ends, given that Beijing has final say. And also pay attention to his points about issues of identity in Hong Kong, a central and often overlooked party of the Hong Kong story.

1. Many people are going to project what they want to see onto the Hong Kong protests currently unfolding

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

2. Anti-globalization activists will see young people in revolt against the system

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

3. Opponents of China's one-party regime will see a reprise of the 1989 Tiananmen uprising

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

4. Business and investors will fear political unrest in one of the world's top commercial cities and financial centers.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

5. But Hong Kong protests arise out of specific circumstances that have specific implications for China

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

6. Before and after the handover, Hong Kong was/is important because it is part of China but also stands apart.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

7. Historically, Hong Kong (and the Pearl River Delta) has been a place where experiments could safely take place w/o infected rest of China

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

8. If those experiments (including foreign contact) worked, they could be embraced, if not, the rest of China was insulated

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

9. In the past 30 years, Hong Kong (and Shenzhen) was the gateway thru which economic opening was allowed to start and spread across China.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

10. The question is whether that process of economic opening, which Hong Kong was the gateway, has a political corollary

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

11. Can Hong Kong's colonial past and economic development make it a model for China experimenting with democracy - or is that off limits?

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

12. The answer has huge implications for Taiwan's willingness to rejoin China, without surrendering its own democratic achievements

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

13. Answer also has implications for China's image abroad, because Hong Kong is a Chinese city but also a global one.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

14. It is very problematic for Beijing to react to Hong Kong unrest with force, like Tiananmen, but permitting protests means loss of face.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

15. One senses the same kind of naivete that preceded Tiananmen crackdown, belief that bloodshed is simply inconceivable.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

16. Of course, Beijing could look at Hong Kong's yearning for democratic experiment as an opportunity, not a challenge ... but it won't.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

17. Another factor at work is the subtle cultural gap between Hong Kong and Mainland China

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

18. Because Hong Kong developed before rest of China, many HK people feel - rightly or wrongly - they are a cut above their Mainland cousins

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

19. The cultural / identity gap has actually intensified in recent years as Mainland China closes the economic gap with Hong Kong

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

20. Lots of angry claims and counter-claims between Hong Kong and Mainlanders over rude behavior, "they are not like us"

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

21. Hong Kong's "difference" means unrest does not translate 1:1 to China, but what happens in HK casts very long, special kind of shadow

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

22. When HK pro-democracy movement started, Beijing leaned heavily on business community to oppose it, arguing unrest would hurt business

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

23. But if Beijing crushes protests violently, it will kill goose that lays golden eggs, ie what makes Hong Kong attractive biz center

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) September 29, 2014

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