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2014 midterm election polls: A short summary of who's ahead in close Senate races

Andrew Prokop is a senior politics correspondent at Vox, covering the White House, elections, and political scandals and investigations. He’s worked at Vox since the site’s launch in 2014, and before that, he worked as a research assistant at the New Yorker’s Washington, DC, bureau.

With the election less than a day away, polling is essentially done, and the predictions of the various election forecast models are basically set. So here's a very simple rundown of what the polling averages show for the seven Senate races that still look close:

  • In four — Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, and GeorgiaRepublicans are ahead.
  • In two — North Carolina and New HampshireDemocrats lead.
  • In the other — Kansas — independent Greg Orman is narrowly ahead.

If those polls, and those in other races, are correct, Republicans will win 52 seats — a clear majority. Orman could then be their 53rd vote, or join the Democrats, but his choice wouldn't swing the Senate.

Every recent Senate cycle has had a few surprises on election night where outcomes differed from polls. Analysts have various guesses about what those races could be — Democrats are hoping the polls are undercounting their support in Colorado and Alaska, while some Republicans see late movement in their favor in North Carolina and New Hampshire. We'll find out tomorrow. For a more specific look at the numbers for each race, check out our election forecasting hub.

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