14 things you need to know about Ebola

14 Cards

CURATED BY Julia Belluz

2015-01-23 14:27:12 -0500

1. The 2014 Ebola outbreak is worse than all other Ebola outbreaks combined
2. Here's how you can catch Ebola — and how you can't
3. We still don't know where Ebola lives when it's not in humans
4. Ebola has never spread to this many countries before
5. All but two of the Ebola patients treated in American hospitals survived
6. Ebola could infect thousands more before the end of the epidemic
7. For every four cases of Ebola we know of, there might be six that we don't
8. The majority of Ebola deaths may not be from Ebola
9. 495 health-care workers have died from Ebola
10. Poverty is one big reason why Ebola is spreading so quickly
11. Global health agencies were too slow in responding to the Ebola crisis
12. The key to stopping Ebola in the US and anywhere else is stopping it in Africa
13. There's no cure for Ebola — but a number of candidates are being studied
14. Ebola could become a permanent threat

1. Card 1 of 14

   The 2014 Ebola outbreak is worse than all other Ebola outbreaks combined

2. Card 2 of 14

   Here's how you can catch Ebola — and how you can't

3. Card 3 of 14

   We still don't know where Ebola lives when it's not in humans

4. Card 4 of 14

   Ebola has never spread to this many countries before

5. Card 5 of 14

   All but two of the Ebola patients treated in American hospitals survived

6. Card 6 of 14

   Ebola could infect thousands more before the end of the epidemic

   How bad could the Ebola epidemic get? There are lots of estimates floating around.
   
   In September, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was predicting that a worst-case scenario could see up to 1.4 million people infected by January.
   
   Behind the most dire projections lurked fears: that the resources and health-care workers needed to bend the epidemic curve downward and save lives wouldn't reach West Africa quickly enough.
   
   The actual number of cases as of January 2015 was closer to 20,000, though some of those fears have been realized. There have been shortages of supplies. The Liberian government estimated it needed 84,841 body bags, while it had only 4,901. A fraction of the hospital beds required have been set up, and only a fraction of the funds promised to address the epidemic have actually been disbursed.
   One of the most persistent shortages has had to do with health-care personnel: there just aren't enough doctors and nurses on the front line. 
   
   This means that, a year after the first Ebola case was identified, there has been "uneven success" in controlling the epidemic in West Africa. While viral spread has been contained in some regions, it remains stubbornly persistent in others.
   
   Looking back, researchers in the New England Journal of Medicine wrote that, between June and mid-September 2014, the epidemic "grew exponentially." By September, the epidemic started to shift: the increase in cases stopped in Guinea and Sierra Leone and reversed in Liberia.
   
   Still, patterns of spread continue to shift, and cases pop up in places that have never seen Ebola before. "A total of 625 confirmed or probable cases were reported from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone in the first week of December, a number similar to the average for the preceding 10 weeks," according to the journal's December 25, 2014 issue.
   
   Scarier yet, experts believe there has been widespread under-reporting of actual Ebola cases, since people have been turned away from hospitals and others have been hiding in their homes, afraid that coming out with Ebola will mean they never see their families again or getting ostracized by their neighbors. One estimate holds that for every four known cases of Ebola, there are six unknown ones.
   
   No matter the precise figure, all of these models assume that the identification of new cases will continue for some time. "We're nine months into an exponential growth process," said infectious disease modeler David Fisman in September 2014. "This is an impossibly huge epidemic, and it's been allowed to reach a point where it's basically the biggest infectious-disease forest fire one could imagine."
   
   What's more, the Ebola numbers aren't reliable, changes in the caseloads may or may not be real, and people like Dr. Fisman wouldn't be surprised if the current trends shift yet again as more data emerges.

7. Card 7 of 14

   For every four cases of Ebola we know of, there might be six that we don't

8. Card 8 of 14

   The majority of Ebola deaths may not be from Ebola

9. Card 9 of 14

   495 health-care workers have died from Ebola

10. Card 10 of 14

    Poverty is one big reason why Ebola is spreading so quickly

11. Card 11 of 14

    Global health agencies were too slow in responding to the Ebola crisis

12. Card 12 of 14

    The key to stopping Ebola in the US and anywhere else is stopping it in Africa

13. Card 13 of 14

    There's no cure for Ebola — but a number of candidates are being studied

14. Card 14 of 14

    Ebola could become a permanent threat