Pennsylvania is a tremendously important state for Democrats in their quest to retake the House of Representatives — it may have more competitive races than any other single state except California.
So Democrats’ selection of their slate of House nominees in Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primaries — with a new congressional map to replace the old gerrymandered one — was hugely consequential.
For the top six GOP-held districts Democrats are targeting, the slate of nominees is half women, half veterans, and all white. None were opposed by the party establishment or primarily championed by the Bernie Sanders wing of the party. Four have law degrees. And one would be one of the richest members of Congress if elected.
So here are the Democrats who emerged triumphant in Pennsylvania House primaries on Tuesday. If these nominees do well in this fall’s midterm elections, Democrats will be well-positioned to take the House. But if they flop, a takeover will be far less likely.
Pennsylvania’s Sixth District: Chrissy Houlahan
Democratic Party officials were positively thrilled when Chrissy Houlahan announced her congressional run last year — they viewed her as one of the best recruits in the country. She has both military (she was an Air Force engineer) and business experience (she was the COO of the footwear and clothing company AND1), and helped run a child literacy nonprofit after that.
That’s not to say she’s a flawless candidate. Republicans have pushed an old report saying AND1 had “sweatshop” working conditions and raised questions about big raises for Houlahan at the nonprofit. Democrats felt good about her prospects for taking on incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Costello anyway.
But things went better for Democrats than they could have dreamed. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s new congressional map, released in February, reshaped Costello’s district from a closely divided one to one Hillary Clinton would have won by nearly 10 points.
Costello was so irate that he quit the race, but, to Republicans’ chagrin, he did so after the filing deadline had passed, once it was too late to recruit another candidate of their choice. That means the GOP’s stuck with Greg McCauley, a little-known attorney who’d filed when Costello was still in. This is viewed as one of Democrats’ most likely pickups in the country, which means Houlahan will probably be a member of Congress next year.
Pennsylvania’s Fifth District: Mary Gay Scanlon
There likely won’t be much drama in the general election for this southeastern district — Hillary Clinton would have won the new version of it by 28 points, making it an all-but-sure pickup for Democrats.
So Mary Gay Scanlon, who emerged victorious from a crowded Democratic primary Tuesday, is highly likely to join the House of Representatives in January 2019. Scanlon is a lawyer and school board member who won the endorsement of the Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board, who praised her history of education advocacy.
At press time, Scanlon was more than 12 points ahead of her nearest rival, Richard Lazer (who got the late endorsement of Bernie Sanders), an impressive accomplishment in a divided field.
With Rep. Pat Meehan resigning after being accused of sexually harassing an aide, Republicans ended up nominating former prosecutor Pearl Kim in an uncontested primary to run here. But barring some truly shocking turn of events, it’s hard to see how Kim could win what’s now such an overwhelmingly Democratic district.
Pennsylvania’s Seventh District: Susan Wild
This primary for the Lehigh Valley open seat vacated by Republican Rep. Charlie Dent was an ideological showdown among Democrats, pitting Trump-sympathetic district attorney John Morganelli against Bernie Sanders-backed pastor Greg Edwards against Susan Wild, who is backed by Emily’s List. which helps elect pro–abortion rights female Democratic candidates to office.
While the vote indeed split three ways, in the end, Wild emerged triumphant with a narrow victory. She’s a law partner at the firm Gross McGinley and the city solicitor for Allentown. The Republican race, which pits former Olympic cyclist Marty Nothstein against entrepreneur Dean Browning, hasn’t yet been called.
Clinton won this new district by just 1 point, so it’s not as certain a pickup for Democrats as the Fifth and Sixth districts. But with no incumbent in the race, it’s a clear top-tier target for the party.
Pennsylvania’s 17th District: Rep. Conor Lamb
At this point, Conor Lamb needs little introduction. The 33-year-old Marine veteran and former assistant US attorney jumped in to make a long-shot bid for a special election in southwestern Pennsylvania last year, in a district Trump won overwhelmingly. Lamb won, edging out GOP nominee Rick Saccone by a 0.2 percent margin in a shocking upset.
But the state Supreme Court’s new map split Lamb’s district in two. And, coincidentally or not, he happened to live in the new 17th, a far more evenly divided district where Trump had won by just 2.5 points. Lamb unsurprisingly decided to run there, but it meant he’d have to take on a fellow incumbent, Republican Rep. Keith Rothfus.
Rothfus is in his third term on the House but doesn’t have a particularly strong election history — he lost his campaign during the 2010 GOP wave year and only won by 3 percentage points in a more conservative district under a new map in 2012. But now his district has changed again and he’s up against a top Democratic recruit who’s already proven his electoral strength, meaning he’ll be in for a tough race indeed.
Pennsylvania’s First District: Scott Wallace
The Democratic primary for this eastern swing district pitted self-funding lawyer Scott Wallace against former Navy prosecutor Rachel Reddick, and in the end, Wallace won handily.
The grandson of former Vice President Henry Wallace, Scott Wallace is extremely rich, with a fortune of more than $127 million. His wealth is largely inherited, and according to the Philadelphia Inquirer, he’d be the third-richest member of Congress if elected. He’s spent recent years as co-chair of the Wallace Global Fund, a charitable foundation focusing on climate change and other issues.
Wallace will face Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick this fall. Hillary Clinton won the new version of this district by 2 points, but Fitzpatrick — a former FBI agent who’s only in his first term in Congress — could be a tough candidate to beat. Establishment Democrats are happy to have Wallace’s deep pockets to fund his own bid, in part because they can now send their money elsewhere, but also because this is a top target for the party.
Pennsylvania’s 10th District: George Scott (probably)
There’s only one more Republican-held district that Trump won by single digits, and that’s the 10th, which is close to the middle of the state. Trump topped Clinton by 8.9 percentage points here, which makes it a tougher lift than any district mentioned so far. And the GOP nominee is Rep. Scott Perry, an Iraq War veteran who’s been in Congress since 2013 and still serves in the Pennsylvania Army National Guard.
Taking on Perry, it seems, will be George Scott (he leads his nearest rival Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson by 1.4 percent with more than 99 percent of the vote in, though the race hasn’t been officially called at press time). Scott is a retired Army lieutenant colonel and a Lutheran pastor in York County. He also ran a campaign ad in which he touted his military records — and then threw an assault rifle into a fire.
The long shots
The races above are the top-tier targets for Democrats (with the 10th being more of a reach). But various candidates have also chosen to try their luck in even more Trump-friendly districts, hoping for an enormous wave or a Conor Lamb-like upset.
PA-16: Ron DiNicola is the Democratic nominee to take on Rep. Mike Kelly. This northwestern district went to Trump by 20 points, but to Mitt Romney in 2012 by only 5 points — so the Cook Political Report deems it “likely Republican” rather than safe. DiNicola is an attorney (who had represented Muhammad Ali) and a Marine veteran, and served as Erie County solicitor.
PA-11: Jess King is the Democratic nominee to take on Rep. Lloyd Smucker in this district Trump won by 26. King is a progressive nonprofit leader running on economic and housing inequality issues, and she was enthusiastically backed by Bernie Sanders. She’s a Mennonite, and her husband is a Mennonite pastor.
PA-14: Bibiana Boerio, a former Ford Motor Co. executive who was the managing director for Jaguar Cars and later served as chief of staff for ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, won the Democratic nomination for this seat fairly handily.
The 14th is part of the old district currently represented by Conor Lamb, but it’s even more conservative than the version Lamb won; Trump beat Clinton here by 29 percentage points. So it will be a tough lift, and this time Democrats won’t have Rick Saccone as a foil — he lost the GOP primary to state Sen. Guy Reschenthaler. Still, Boerio hopes she can pull off the upset.